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Mafia VIII | Dumbtell or Scumtell?
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-04-2019 22:22
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df_Trek wrote:
ok, I made a revision on some crucial points:
-bbl theories on day 3 about knockout role on building ideas among others
-my previous doubts about his managing of ryant situation
-Croatia #281 post
-make a so detailed verdict over players, I don't feel this stimulate the self-opinion of others and is an easy manipulation game
-lynch knockout
- #281: does this really make sense to you? Which parts look similar enough that a comparison of the two cases make sense?
- I want you to reread bbls post and follow-up post again: Imo he tended to believe that i was simply on the wrong way and believed that i was more likely protown. Just sayin'.
- I dont really want to defend myself today in a long form but I'm open to post a day 5 defense where i explain some of my moves a bit longer. A defense now shouldnt be necessary since it makes no sense to lynch anyone before trek at this point. See jdogs/my explanation. I'd like you to move the vote away from me for that reason.
Makes me remember to point out: Closer to the end of the game we should be careful about posting our votes early and without the believe that it will be our standing vote. In a "lynch mafia or lose" situation one wrong vote can be enough to lose already.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 11-04-2019 00:58
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knockout wrote:
- #281: does this really make sense to you? Which parts look similar enough that a comparison of the two cases make sense?
yes, or I wouldn't have inserted in the list, there were some similar points: both lynch votes were not decisive in terms of who would be dead at the end of the day, but both were the executioner hammer that closed the day, both lynched people were townie.
Maybe it wouldn't have been necessary, but just in case... you had a previous case
knockout wrote:
- I want you to reread bbls post and follow-up post again: Imo he tended to believe that i was simply on the wrong way and believed that i was more likely protown. Just sayin'.
I'm not taking all what bbl wrote like crucial point, in fact I wrote: "bbl theories on day 3 about knockout role on building ideas among others": that's my likely option at this point.
btw you were just less suspicious than others, and he didn't tell anything about if he is tending more to his option 1 or option 2, he just wrote:
"So, overall, Ian Butler, Croatia, Kandesbunzler, knockout and Jdog all have what I consider mafia tell. Out of those, Croatia and knockout also have some major townie tendencies, which of course could be faked, but I'll take at face value for now."
not really a certificate of citizenship.
knockout wrote:
- I dont really want to defend myself today in a long form but I'm open to post a day 5 defense where i explain some of my moves a bit longer. A defense now shouldnt be necessary since it makes no sense to lynch anyone before trek at this point. See jdogs/my explanation. I'd like you to move the vote away from me for that reason.
This suggest me a lot of question:
why don't you want to defend yourself in day 4 that actually you are in risk? How can you be sure to still alive at day 5? Do you know who mafia is going to kill next night? On which criterion there's no other people if not trek to be lynched today? and above all, why should I move my vote to trek, with you again with no vote yet?
lynching trek now looks like a bingo call, I have no statements to judge him, and since there are more suspicious people around, I'm voting for them
knockout wrote:
Makes me remember to point out: Closer to the end of the game we should be careful about posting our votes early and without the believe that it will be our standing vote. In a "lynch mafia or lose" situation one wrong vote can be enough to lose already.
That's not my case, and imo with few people remaining you have also to be faster than a combinated vote by mafia, that at this point with the possibility of tie is fundamental
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-04-2019 08:01
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@281: okay what about:
- i repeatedly stated that im in on the ian vote but wanted to delay the end of the day.
- i reasoned my suspicions against him very early in the day
- i did think he was most likely mafia
none of which compares to ian.
@bbls case. You might quote the part too: "baseballlover312 wrote:
In fact, looking back on it, I'm a bit less inclined to believe you're mafia given that analysis against the grain at such a crucial time. I didn't remember how unlikely an Aquarius lynch was then until I read it back.
Still, if you are truly town, I still believe the most likely option going forward is scenario 2 then, which means we need a new strategy and line of thinking.
Maybe not a certificate of citizenship but a clear sign that he wouldnt vote for me
This suggest me a lot of question:
why don't you want to defend yourself in day 4 that actually you are in risk? How can you be sure to still alive at day 5? Do you know who mafia is going to kill next night? On which criterion there's no other people if not trek to be lynched today? and above all, why should I move my vote to trek, with you again with no vote yet?
lynching trek now looks like a bingo call, I have no statements to judge him, and since there are more suspicious people around, I'm voting for them
That's not my case, and imo with few people remaining you have also to be faster than a combinated vote by mafia, that at this point with the possibility of tie is fundamental
I dont think im in risk of getting lynched today because it just makes too much sense to lynch trek today. Basically youd have to be confident that the chance that im town is smaller than the chance that the doctor is still alive, not me and will save the right person tonight or that trek is protown and will decide to join the game.
Lynching trek is basically an extra lynch to add to the most likely mafia member (that in your opinion is me). Its not a decision between lynching me or lynching trek. Its a decision between lynching me+trek and lynching just me.
If you are a townie please read yourself into "Lynch or Lose" strategy. You seem to have a lack of understanding of the endgame (or dont want to understand it) .
https://www.googl..._strategy/
Is a good way to start. I can write a bit of a strategy post to how we should adapt it to our situation. But skimming the article it sounds like it describes our situation here quite well.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 16:57
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excellent arguments df_trek
right now I'm almost sure that df_trek and jseadog are townies, with kandesbunzler looking quite fine as well
@knockout: I'm not only talking about only that day, but also your thoughts on Ian Butler on multiple other days
Generally he seems to suspect me right from the beginning and doesnt seem to be open to change his opinion about me. Knockout is bringing a "good structure" to the town on day 1 -> Suspicious. Knockout was the one heavily pushing Aquarius and Aquarius is mafia -> Knockout is strong enough to fake that. Knockout gets more silent once his prefered target is on his way to a lynch? -> A change in behaviour -> suspicious. Knockout waits till the end of the day before casting the heavily foreshadowed vote? -> Surely he wants to copy Ian out-of-nothing-hammer from the previous day. There is hardly any development in his opinion on me at all. He basically wrote on day one that he wants me lynched and sticked to that.
Smart move again to leave out the pros on your side I mentioned about you - but this selective view is neither what the town needs nor anything that should be taken care of despite you again trying to twist and turn my words - it's getting ridiculous.
If there is no argument that offers some sort of evidence why knockout has to be town that hasn't been brought up yet he is my #1 lynch target - though I still see trekbmc as most likely ally for him.
I disagree with this so much. Nothing is inherently stupid in this game. he was not THE only one to bring the idea that hillis is to the table. it just reads like poor white washing.
Day 2: Defending ryant strongly: Honestly doesnt say much about his alignment. He had good reasons as both mafia and town to do so.
Again, thats bullshit. It should tell you a lot.
I'm comparing the timing, and I stand by that. For obvious reasons, cause it was the same timing. If you would try to properly read through my posts, you could've easily see that I've stated the points about your thoughts on Ian myself. But again, for misleading the others, you went into leaving that out.
I think we need to get rid of knockout asap. His misleading high volume low content talks are poisonous for the town. |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 17:12
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Croatia14 wrote:
I think we need to get rid of knockout asap. His misleading high volume low content talks are poisonous for the town.
So do you think trek is a townie that just disappeared? Or do you think he is mafia and doing this on purpose to see how far he gets? He is active on Daily which is a concern for me. The reason I ask if you said myself, df, and kandes are looking good. That would mean that hillis91 is also exempt which only leaves you, knockout, and trekbmc.
I hope you understand that it would make you look bad if knockout ends up being townie.
If knockout ends up being a townie that puts us in a seriously dangerous situation presuming trek is a townie also. If we do lynch knockout today and he ends up a townie, there is NO WAY we can let trekbmc survive yet another day or it quite possibly will be the worst town move in PCM.Daily mafia history. Especially if trek magically shows up and casts an immediate vote on someone which would be a telltale sign he was mafia all along trying to secure a win.
I haven't played through every scenario yet but do you think they are both mafia Croatia?
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-04-2019 17:33
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jseadog1 wrote:
trekbmc can't be excused for not playing the game. Let's say he is potentially a townie, what happens in the next day when its 2 on 3 and he isn't active? (presuming we don't get a mafia member today or if trek is mafia its a win-win). 2 quick mafia votes to 1 other player will signal game over if he doesn't participate. It's not a risk worth taking in my opinion.
knockout wrote:
@jdog: i understood it 
knockout wrote:
I havent read anything yet in terms of arguments but i want to point out that no matter how unsure we have to be about trek, we have to lynch him now.
Why? Its now 5 vs 2, we lynch one townie it would be 4 vs 2 before the night kill and unless the doctor is alive to save one it is 3 vs 2. Still enough to lynch someone? Not if we have an inactive one alive. The mafia could make a quick coordinated move to lynchvote someone early in the day and then theyd likely win the tie breaker. So really we have to lynch trek today or it is already lynch or lose time today.
Not gonna cast my vote yet because wed be in danger of ending the day already.
Even if the odds that trek is mafia is 20% and the odds that someone else is 80% we have to lynch trek first because then we get another chance at the 80% guy.
That shouldnt stop from discussing everything else though.
Regarding kandes and croatia: i had not noticed the disagreement bit but i had noticed that kandes was the one who pushed for leaving croatia off the hook after ryant was lynched. might be worth going through other combos of possible mafia too to see where interactions (or the lack of it) looks noticable.
@Croatia
Do you seriously not understand this? / want to ignore this?
Do you really want to lynch me on this day when a wrong lynch on me means that the game is basically over? When a wrong lynch on trek means that you can still lynch me the next day?
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 17:47
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UPDATE:
trekbmc - 2 VOTES (jseadog1, hillis91)
knockout - 2 VOTES (Croatia14, df_trek)
No Vote - trekbmc, knockout, kandesbunzler26
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@knockout - To your last reply, why have you not voted trek out yet if you are still pushing others to vote him out? Are you just trying to get Croatia and df_trek to un-vote for you? Genuinely interested to know what the wait is.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 17:53
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Actually just read it and understand your point.
I will vote for trek_bmc if he doesn't show any actvity at all and explains his absence in a reasonably convincing way. I won't do it right now so he has the chance to finally show up. Plus, we have the remaining of the day to discuss further options (and actions) as long as we all are still alive. |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 18:13
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@kandesbunzler26: You can basicly just cast your vote now. becuase he is not going to engage here. He's been given several chances and he simply does not care.
He posted in the Fantasy Manager thread earlier today. So that is evidence enough that he is not going to post here.... Trek got's to go.
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-04-2019 18:16
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jseadog1 wrote:
UPDATE:
trekbmc - 2 VOTES (jseadog1, hillis91)
knockout - 2 VOTES (Croatia14, df_trek)
No Vote - trekbmc, knockout, kandesbunzler26
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@knockout - To your last reply, why have you not voted trek out yet if you are still pushing others to vote him out? Are you just trying to get Croatia and df_trek to un-vote for you? Genuinely interested to know what the wait is.
Because i want to use the time till the deadline to discuss the situation so we dont run into time issues on the next days. E.g. I'm right now typing down a game theory post about the possible 3 v 2 situation if trek is pro town (pretty much what the link I posted says adapted to our situation -> like the role of hillis on the next day if he survives) and why e.g. df should not quick vote as he suggested himself.
Then we should already continue to discuss the actions for the next day. Who would be our vote in that 3v2 situation etc? Which pairings would seem realistic? e.g. i'm tending to suggest to lynch either croatia or kandes but i'm still trying to figure out kandes role in this game - i have typed and deleted posts about kandes quite a few times because i cant really grasp him.
Also i said i wanted to defend myself on the next day but actually i let hillis decide if that actually is needed or if he may already want to hear it on this day. he's the confirmed townie he can decide that.
Should trekbmc now appear after all those days he would need a damn good explanation why he was so inactive and present a good case on someone to even make me reconsider voting him because i think that in itself would be pretty suspicious.
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-04-2019 18:34
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Game Theory Post 3 Townies v 2 Mafia Members
( https://www.reddi..._strategy/ for a read if you think i'm biased )
(This lesson seems to be necessary when i look at df. I dont condemn you because of this post because not seeing this might as well be a "dumbtell" (sorry but i liked the word when i read it somewhere) instead of a scumtell)
Right now it is 7 people left in the game, 5 townies vs 2 mafia members.
If we lynch a wrong person today and the doctor doesnt save someone tonight then we'll be in a 3 v 2 situation for the next day.
Win condition for the mafia would be that they get to a situation with equal numbers of townies vs mafias so if they lynch or kill any townie - no matter how confirmed townie this guy is and how scummy that lynch would look for them.
Spoiler (similar scenario would be a 2 v 1 later on in the game - the same scenario would be given there)
The mafia will win the entire game if they can get 3 votes on someone. They can coordinate between themselves to cast both their votes within one minute. This means the mafia wins ...
1. if a townie votes for another townie
2. if a townie doesnt vote and the mafia wins the tie breaker
3. if the town agrees on a no lynch and no doctor save happens
First of all scenario 3 is super unlikely. Wont happen.
Scenario 2 is the likely scenario if trek doesnt rejoin and is a town member. I dont see him suddenly reappearing as a town member and winning the game for us so all the mafia has to do is cast two lynch votes on the same townie before the town does on the mafia. And the mafia has a huge advantage because they can coordinate their votes much much better. To avoid this situation we have to lynch trek today (this is no vote yet although it will turn into one later)
Scenario 1 is the one that cannot 100% avoided but we have to play as good as possible to reduce the odds of that happening. Assuming everyone casts a vote there will be no tie breaker needed so we dont have to care about being quick. This means we can coordinate our vote beforehand. We can and we should argue for our preferred target but we should wait to vote until we are sure that we can get three votes on the same person. If the townies vote for different people then its basically game over (unless the town does actually hits both mafia members with a vote).
So if we townies have to vote for the same member how should we coordinate it? Well, it looks like we have a confirmed townie alive who we know that he wants to hit a mafia member (unlike basically everyone else where there is at least a tiny bit of doubt left) so i suggest that we follow his vote once he does vote. He can decide who will be voted and everyone who thinks he is town alligned (or wants to pretend) should vote the same target as him. It is our job to help him make the right decision before he casts his vote (analysis, argumentation, etc) but once it stands there is no changing anymore. I will follow his vote even if he decides for the one guy that looks the most protownish left alive since that will still be better than going against the confirmed townie and massively increasing the chance for the mafia to quickhammer a townie.
tl;dr: If we get into a 3v2 vote, trust hillis to make the right decision.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 18:46
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*If i survive the night that is
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 19:02
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jseadog1 wrote:
So do you think trek is a townie that just disappeared? Or do you think he is mafia and doing this on purpose to see how far he gets? He is active on Daily which is a concern for me. The reason I ask if you said myself, df, and kandes are looking good. That would mean that hillis91 is also exempt which only leaves you, knockout, and trekbmc.
I hope you understand that it would make you look bad if knockout ends up being townie.
I haven't played through every scenario yet but do you think they are both mafia Croatia?
As stated, yes. I think both are mafia. But I'm more convinced that knockout is mafia than with trekbmc. He might care more if he'd be mafia.
my guesses:
Hillis and I am 100% townies
df_trek and jseadog are 85/15 townies
kandesbunzler is 60/40
trekbmc is 40/60 but less influencal on the game
knockout is 20/80 but more influencial on the game
if you look for reasonings please take a look at my previous posts, I think I emphasized my points quite widely
I think lynching trek is a decent idea, but I'm more convinced that knockout is mafia - and I'd take that chance over any else...as I prefer 4 townies against 1 mafia guy over the risk of 3 vs. 2 where one wrong lynch case could end the game...
but I agree that trek needs to speak soon
also I'd love if people do the final 2 lynches, be it for knockout or trekbmc, very close to each other so that a terrorist may not be able to react
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-04-2019 19:15
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Croatia14 wrote:
[quote] jseadog1 wrote:
also I'd love if people do the final 2 lynches, be it for knockout or trekbmc, very close to each other so that a terrorist may not be able to react
Do you prefer to end the day now or would you prefer to have it run till close to the deadline?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 19:33
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knockout wrote:
Croatia14 wrote:
[quote] jseadog1 wrote:
also I'd love if people do the final 2 lynches, be it for knockout or trekbmc, very close to each other so that a terrorist may not be able to react
Do you prefer to end the day now or would you prefer to have it run till close to the deadline?
surprise time somewhen on the last day
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-04-2019 21:50
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hillis91 wrote:
Im going for a lynch vote for trekbmc. I belive kandesbunzler26 and trekbmc to be the 2 remaning mobsters. And it's time to defend yourself trek, you have been online but not active for a long time now.
Because of the lynch vote by kandes on trek? and him later not really pushing for a lynch on him anymore? Or what do you see?
If i had to nail the duo right now it would be kandes and croatia. Quite a few times backing each others opinion but also some sort of cooperation could be found in two important moments:
1) Trying to save aquarius: Croatia pushes for basically any other lynch attempt other than aquarius while kandes dives low to hide on someone that isnt involved in the final two lynchtrains to not harm the odds of saving him at the end of the day.
2) Kandes was the main one who pushed the public to see croatia as protown after (/at the end of) day 2
Does not need to be the case but who else would make sense as a duo? And who would be the most likely partner in crime of jdog / df if one of them would be mafia? I struggle to see any connection to anyone else there?
Or the other way around: Which duos would seem very unlikely? jdog and trek comes to mind first here.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 11-04-2019 23:22
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@knockout:
Well, for me it was his "safe" vote for him while everybody went for Aquarius that turned me on to him.
Like i said in my post after my voting post. I have him, trekbmc and Croatia as my main suspects.
I wanted to push for the idea of trekbmc and kandes now. Giving me a slighty higher chance of surviving the night, if Croatia is a mobster. So that he might think i will not vote for him the next day. But hey, it is what it is.
This is a hard one, considering a lot of the pressure is on me now to pick the right one. And im a chicken sh*t right now wanting trekbmc out, but at the same time i think that removing a possible inactive townie is just as valuable as removing an active mafia member.
I would like you to put your vote for trekbmc in now, so that we can get on to the next and crucial day.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 11-04-2019 23:58
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First of all, i'm sorry with knockout if I wasn't prepared to this, but I thought that this didn't deserve more time of what I'm spending now playing, btw now I'll take a look of what you posted out of this forum, but I want to make it clear that nothing will be more influencing that what I read on this forum and how I feel these informations.
knockout wrote:
Does not need to be the case but who else would make sense as a duo? And who would be the most likely partner in crime of jdog / df if one of them would be mafia? I struggle to see any connection to anyone else there?
Or the other way around: Which duos would seem very unlikely? jdog and trek comes to mind first here.
now, if I have to point my Shilling, the mafia duo is Knockout - Kandes, why?
About knockout I made earlier my statements, the problem is, who with him? Ok, hillis is confirmed townie; Croatia as I said before imo he cleared hi situation on day 2, and later on he just confirmed what I thought before; between others I'm still doubting, but I'm sayng Kandes because he played all the time diverting troubles more than others, jseadog put himself more in play than him, and I feel that indifference of the game by trek is more townie than mafia, (or maybe his partner blawled over him in private chat, no?)
at the end, why my vote on knockout? easy, because he is my main suspect to be mafia
very unlikely duo? Croatia - knockout, but this sentence make no sense based on my opinions
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 12-04-2019 00:37
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At this point I'm quite confident that if Hillis, jseadog, df_trek and I cooperate well we got 4 townies that can win the game quite easily, no matter which thoughts the other 2+1 set up. It is very important especially that Hillis doesn't fall for knockouts tricks and re-evaluates his position, as he is a vital member for the town.
Also: df_trek is exactly right |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 12-04-2019 00:38
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If knockout and me would've been mafia together that would've been hilarious 
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