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Mafia VIII | Dumbtell or Scumtell?
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 00:27
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Posts: 9099
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Also quite smart to do a similar move to Ian Butler a couple of days ago, which was one if the main reasons to lynch him: the nail in the coffin. Following the logic that this lynch cause failed once it may fail again, so we better not lynch a person that did it like Ian. Well smart move as a mafia imo, something that I think he could've painted up for this reason...
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 00:42
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
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First let me say that my low participation the past few days was due to me fulfilling my life dream of attending WrestleMania 35. I was still active in reading the conversation but could tell that Ian was in deep trouble so I just tried to enjoy my trip and make the most of it. I am currently evaluating everyone's posts.
Looking at a small argument between kandes & Croatia I am thinking that one of them is likely to be mafia. It is interesting to me that each were at one point on board with lynching me / being against me and have since both jumped on board with leaning town towards me. The likelihood of them both being mafia may also exist but if I was held to gunpoint having to choose 1 to be mafia, it would be kandes. I felt that way from him Day 1 but he had persuaded me otherwise since then. Not really feeling the same way now though.
Now, there is absolutely no way I am giving trekbmc a free pass in this day. I feel like that is exactly what he wants. He was online TODAY and surely this will be enough to finally warrant a response out of him. Even though he probably isn't the most suspicious person that is usually how the mafia wants it to seem for obvious reasons.
knockout, the reason I was so confident in you being with the town is the fact that you were so quick to take charge and get everything organized. Usually mafia that post very early on in an active role are more un-organized and do not help the discussions generally. I understand your suspicions and if I have some free time I will dig through past editions of the game and show you where I was confident in early days of people being with the town. I'm not as confident in you as I was before though if that's worth anything.
As for the death of BBL, I'm not exactly sure why hillis91 wasn't killed? Maybe they think the doctor is still alive and constantly saving hillis now? That is the only thing I can think of at this time. Nobody is going to lynch hillis so he is obviously a ticking time bomb.
Lynch trekbmc. I'm open to changing this if Croatia can go into some more detail about why he chose knockout over trek.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 00:59
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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Confirmed Mafia
Confirmed Townie
| Remaning | 13 | | Mafia % | 0,076923077 |
knockout starts the game with a plea to town. Reason behind his plea, no detective. Lynch votes trekbmc (1)
Aquarius97 joins the day, agrees with knockout and votes kandesbunzler26 (2)
Aquarius97 changes his vote to ryant. Reason "Because last time i played i tried to kill him twice and fuc..ng doctor saved him twice"
Marcovdw votes df_trek (1) and hillis91 follows (2). Reason, following teammate.
We jump forward to the point where hillis91 has 5 votes.
| hillis91 | 5 | | Croatia | 2 | | df_trek | 2 | | jseasdog1 | 2 | | ryant | 1 | | Ian Butler | 1 |
Aquarius97 rejoins, and agrees with Croatia that masons should come out. Claims no counter claims could be made and that having two confirmed townies would benefit the town. Also, makes a case for the mafia being forced to target the masons as they dont want them alive late in the game. Votes trekbmc (1).
Aquarius97 replies to knockout and bbl. Confirmes he is not a mason. Defends his vote on trek, claiming he does not want to vote for hillis91 since he has not yet been active since all the votes. Defends his actions to BBL and says he is not mafia.
Marcovdw claims mason with hillis91. hillis91 having 6 votes now, and are 1 away from automatic lynch.
baseballlover312 first to vote against Aquarius97 (1)
knockout votes against Aquarius97 (2)
jseadog1 follows and votes Aquarius97 (3)
ryant votes no one -> Later changes to df_trek
Ian Butler votes for Aquarius97 (4)
kandesbunzler26 votes for trekbmc
Marcovdw votes for Aquarius97 (5)
df_Trek votes for Aquarius97 (6)
Aquarius97 is lynched and confirmed as mafia.
I see your trek and knockout connection. But knockout was early on the Aquarius97 vote. How do you respond to that one?
Im going for a lynch vote for trekbmc. I belive kandesbunzler26 and trekbmc to be the 2 remaning mobsters. And it's time to defend yourself trek, you have been online but not active for a long time now.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 01:03
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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If trek and kandesbunzler26 are the last two remaning. They have throughout the game been giving each other safe votes for lynchings, to clearly give them "alibi" later in the game IMO.
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 10-04-2019 01:16
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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damn, I was quite confident on my points against Ian's faults..
about bbl death imo it's a move that probably should be linked to his activity in day 3, I'll go deeper with his posts.
knockout wrote:
Would someone who is super careful to avoid any links to other players announce that he his partner is a confirmed townie for little reason? Im not sure...
my guess that trek and Ian had a link was caused precisely by this, links with none but two with a single player, moreover when there were 13/13 still alive in day one (right after the dawn and starting a train with two votes very soon in the game, something that started also aquarius/sammy case), and later (when 11/13 alive) saying he is convinced trek is townie, a fast and not well depth post that imo can influence a subconscious "clean citizen status" over him among other people, but now I can throw all this statements from the window...
good point now to play with numbers, but I'm more optimistic than your percentages, with 7 people still alive and a confirmed mason, every townie (except you hillis) has 40% to point at mafia without reasoning, furthermore if you are confident on another player to be townie, you can bring the percentage to 50%.
Now, at this point I'm still having trust in Croatia, that at my eyes was the first player to be likely townie after ryant, but I'm not sure about knockout to be main suspect, in any case on his head hangs a 50% possibility to be mafia, because I didn't have particular negative feelings among all other 4 remainders, let say that surely being so inactive doesn't help Trek...
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| df_Trek |
Posted on 10-04-2019 01:37
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2324
Joined: 07-07-2016
PCM$: 17374.00
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ok, I made a revision on some crucial points:
-bbl theories on day 3 about knockout role on building ideas among others
-my previous doubts about his managing of ryant situation
-Croatia #281 post
-make a so detailed verdict over players, I don't feel this stimulate the self-opinion of others and is an easy manipulation game
-lynch knockout
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 02:21
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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Early Update:
trekbmc - 2 VOTES (jseadog1, hillis91)
knockout - 2 VOTES (Croatia14, df_trek)
No Vote - trekbmc, knockout, kandesbunzler26
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trekbmc needs to speak up asap, I don't understand why we are keeping him in this game when he isn't playing or doing anything beneficial.
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-04-2019 06:17
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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I havent read anything yet in terms of arguments but i want to point out that no matter how unsure we have to be about trek, we have to lynch him now.
Why? Its now 5 vs 2, we lynch one townie it would be 4 vs 2 before the night kill and unless the doctor is alive to save one it is 3 vs 2. Still enough to lynch someone? Not if we have an inactive one alive. The mafia could make a quick coordinated move to lynchvote someone early in the day and then theyd likely win the tie breaker. So really we have to lynch trek today or it is already lynch or lose time today.
Not gonna cast my vote yet because wed be in danger of ending the day already.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 11:47
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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For me, it's kandesbunzler26, Croatia and trekbmc that looks like mafia members right now.
However, again(!), it's time for trekbmc to show us something.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 13:43
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1120
Joined: 07-07-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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A short overview about the day 4 action so far (might seem like "contributing something without actually helping the town", but it helps me thinking, so I'll do it anyway):
- croatia lynching knockout
- jseadog going for either croatia or kandesbunzler (more for the later); lynching trekbmc
- hillis going for croatia, kandesbunzler and trekbmc; lynching trekbmc
- df_trek lynching knockout
- knockout (essentially) lynching trekbmc
- trekbmc still missing
It's pretty clear that there are basically two directions we are going now:
- lynching knockout (though there seems to be no clue who could be his ally, except maybe trekbmc)
- lynching trekbmc (who works together with either croatia or me)
I want to assume (at least for now) both directions are wrong. Why? Because both are hitting at the easiest targets, as with hillis in day 1 (until he was cleared), ryant in day 2 and ian in day 3. I think if we follow this directions right now, we will have some discussion at the beginning of the day, then it will get quieter, we will finally lynch trekbmc (at the moment the even easier target for he does nothing), maybe with a majority lynch because someone wants to shorten the waiting time and in the end the mafia will get what it wants.
(To be clear: I have no idea if trekbmc is mafia or town. But I fear - and have the feeling - we are making the same mistakes as in the last two days.)
Therefore I will try to do two things in day 4 (and I encourage everyone to help me with them):
1) Get (and give) a chronological overview about every lynchvote on every day until now.
Reason: I assume that the mafia was happy with most of the 4 lynch trains (hillis, Aquarius, ryant, ian) in the first three days. So I think we should have a closer look on who got those trains running (most likely the first three votes, while vote 2 and 3 may be the even more interesting, because with those the mafia does start the train without determining the target). Later votes should be noticed, but only put against someone if he jumped on a train more than once.
2) Defend anyone who has accumulated at least two votes (at least until the final day of day 4), so we don't have another "fast lynch train and long silence"-day.
Some questions at the end:
@jseadog(#282): Which "small argument" between croatia and me do you mean that should make one of us mafia?
@hillis(#284): When exactly did trekbmc vote for me? I only found one post from him, voting for you. |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 13:48
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Anybody with any interest in representing us at the Mafia championships? 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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Posted on 23-11-2024 18:09
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-04-2019 15:06
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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I think that we should focus on how the opinions on the people were formed and not just the votes itself. Take my votes for example. I telegraphed most of my votes before actually voting. Whether it was my Aquarius vote on day 1, my Ian vote yesterday or the trekvote today: based on votes will paint a completely differet picture of where i stood in the process of shoving someone into the spotlight
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 15:09
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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@jseadog(#282): Which "small argument" between croatia and me do you mean that should make one of us mafia?
Maybe I should have used the term disagreement. The particular message from Croatia below:
@kandesbunzler: While we agree on a lot of findings, I think your statements are quite weak. You seem to be very careful with your reads, a lot of times calming the fire of your statements while speaking them out.
I find it a little odd that he took a shot at you a bit after you said you saw him as "generally protown". There wouldn't really be a reason for him to do that right now. Also, looking at your breakdown a few pages ago, those who you claimed to be mafia turned out to be townies and the rest of them it appears as though you said you generally thought they were pro-town also which could be a tactic to take the target off your back.
Again, you are not a top target in my eyes right now.
trekbmc can't be excused for not playing the game. Let's say he is potentially a townie, what happens in the next day when its 2 on 3 and he isn't active? (presuming we don't get a mafia member today or if trek is mafia its a win-win). 2 quick mafia votes to 1 other player will signal game over if he doesn't participate. It's not a risk worth taking in my opinion.
@knockout - Read the last paragraph for my further reasoning on taking out trekbmc. I would hope you understand how it makes sense.
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-04-2019 16:39
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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@jdog: i understood it 
knockout wrote:
I havent read anything yet in terms of arguments but i want to point out that no matter how unsure we have to be about trek, we have to lynch him now.
Why? Its now 5 vs 2, we lynch one townie it would be 4 vs 2 before the night kill and unless the doctor is alive to save one it is 3 vs 2. Still enough to lynch someone? Not if we have an inactive one alive. The mafia could make a quick coordinated move to lynchvote someone early in the day and then theyd likely win the tie breaker. So really we have to lynch trek today or it is already lynch or lose time today.
Not gonna cast my vote yet because wed be in danger of ending the day already.
Even if the odds that trek is mafia is 20% and the odds that someone else is 80% we have to lynch trek first because then we get another chance at the 80% guy.
That shouldnt stop from discussing everything else though.
Regarding kandes and croatia: i had not noticed the disagreement bit but i had noticed that kandes was the one who pushed for leaving croatia off the hook after ryant was lynched. might be worth going through other combos of possible mafia too to see where interactions (or the lack of it) looks noticable.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 18:40
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
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kandesbunzler26 wrote:
Some questions at the end:
@jseadog(#282): Which "small argument" between croatia and me do you mean that should make one of us mafia?
@hillis(#284): When exactly did trekbmc vote for me? I only found one post from him, voting for you.
Yeah, i did not word that one proberly. I ment you voting for him during the Aquarius97 lynch vote.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 19:15
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 1500.00
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Remaning:
trekbmc
Croatia14
knockout
df_Trek
baseballlover312
jseadog1
hillis91
kandesbunzler26
Last time online: 10. April 2019 14:32
Day 1: hillis91
And that was his only post and vote....
Last time online: 10. April 2019 14:40
Day 1: knockout -> jseadog
Day 2: jseadog -> knockout
Day 3: trekbmc -> Ian Butler
Day 4: knockout(current)
Last time online: 10. April 2019 18:35
Day 1: hillis91 -> trekbmc
Day 2: croatia14
Day 3: baseballlover -> trekbmc -> Nobody -> trekbmc
Day 4: No vote yet casted(current)
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-04-2019 19:49
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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@hillis: May I ask what the intention behind the votes overview of that sort is? I dont recognize any value in that list right now. Or will you add an analysis later?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jseadog1 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 19:56
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 9595
Joined: 18-07-2010
PCM$: 13552.00
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knockout wrote:
@hillis: May I ask what the intention behind the votes overview of that sort is? I dont recognize any value in that list right now. Or will you add an analysis later?
Also @hillis: why do you have baseballlover312 in the alive/remaining list?
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 10-04-2019 21:30
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
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@knockout: Yes, just had to run to the gym. I will try to back up my gut feeling with an anaysis later on.
@jseadog1: I saw it after, and editing is not allowed, so here we are.
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-04-2019 22:01
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Spoiler my feelings on day 1 on croatia:
Croatia
- i shared my feeling about him in #58 already
- Not a lot of things from him later that i really wanna rate too high but I give him credit for being outspoken against the hillis waggon
Verdict More likely town. And yeah he's right: If there are other candidates day 1 with a similar mafia likelyhood then they would preferably get my vote over him and there are plenty of those.
and #58:
to me it looks honest. I dont particularly like his response, aggresively shooting back at the person that voted for you often induces a bitter taste to me but i believe the part of being drunk (e.g. because of posting at 3am local time and struggling a bit with the forum code) and i believe that he would likely have posted earlier than last seeing how the tone in town was "lynchvote ones without a post" combined with the fact that lots of people have his skype contact and could have reached out to him if they were his partner in crime. Hence im tending protown for him
Croatia gives me a hard time to evaluate because there are lots of things that i see as mafia tells but also quite a few things that i'd see as more townish. Depending on which ones i rate higher changes my opinion on him too. Also there have been a couple of missunderstandings that certainly didnt help:
A bit of a rundown of things in his game so far that could move him one way or another:
#49-51: I believe his story about being drunk (looking at his minor struggles with the daily code) and i believe that him posting a bit drunk makes him more likely town because a mafia member might be more likely to be extra careful about what they say.
#62: "Knockout remains suspicious, he serms to be really determined. Would he be like that if he's a brownie? I can't judge yet, but I very much consider him as a godfather option."
Imo two very interesting sentences so close to each other.
1) Croatia being suspicious of me because I'm really determined? I could understand it from some. But Croatia knows me better than pretty much every other daily member and if he doesnt know that i can put in "determined efforts" in things thats pretty weird considering how much effort i can put in things like ICL/MG Planning, mg previews (obviously conglomerate previews but also my "i simulate a season a thousand times rankings") or mafia games. Coming from him that makes me a bit suspicious about himself.
2) The godfather has in this game no special ability that differentiate him from a mafia goon so why point out specifically the godfather? My theory was that this was a genuine overlook by him since he hasnt thought a lot about the game set-up and i consider that as a town tell for him since the mafia would realize that the godfather is just another mafia goon in this edition. This one was a huge reason why i had him as "more likely town" on day one eventhough i didnt want to disclose the reason at that point (sth like this is no tell if people are aware of it since it is fakeable)
#74: Asking for a mason claim: Doesnt say anything about his allignment. Reasonable / good call but stuff like that could be from a mafia member too.
#81: defends hillis. A thing that is to be seen as pro town although we cant really see how much he would have pushed for it if there was no mason claim since the defense looks quite soft thus far.
#103: Defending Aquarius based on the mason claim support. I honestly think that is a terrible reason and the very same thing strengthened my believe that aquarius is mafia. I count that against him. (Of course at this early situation a lot is based on gut feeling)
He oftentimes had multiple shorter posts in short order which strikes me as a post as you think thing which I'd more likely attribute to a townie. Examples: 103-104 or 49-51
#145: This one is completely weird. Talking about beef between Aquarius and Sammy is like totally wrong (or would anybody describe the timing thing as beef?). It fits with his " i didnt reread anything at that time but to me it looked like he was trying to cover up a reason behind the sammyt lynch (whatever it was).
#147: "3. Lynching me seems to be objectively inherently stupid. Remember I was the guy that clearly defended Hillis before the mason stuff that saved him. I wouldn't have had any reason to do that, as I could've just smiled and waved and see him dying. Thus accusing me makes you even more suspicious I guess." I disagree with this so much. Nothing is inherently stupid in this game. he was not THE only one to bring the idea that hillis is to the table. it just reads like poor white washing.
Day 2: Defending ryant strongly: Honestly doesnt say much about his alignment. He had good reasons as both mafia and town to do so.
#159: I hate how one of the first thoughts he had after i pushed the aquarius train heavily to sacrifice him. That feels like such an unnatural believe to me. You shouldnt see me as a confirmed townie of course but seeing how i was one (of) the main drivers of that train should have given me a bit of town credit i guess.
A reply to this:
Spoiler
Croatia14 wrote:
So why the strong Ian statement and why am i excluded from the list? I believe that might be connected. At first i thought he was testing me or other possible town members whether i/they would rather jump on that train (especially me because i suggested i would want either a lynch train on aquarius or ian earlier).
After the mafia flip and the lack of explanation by cro i think of it differently: I think he was leaving me out of that list especially because he wanted me to support his attempt to derail the aquarius waggon and figured that the best choice for that was to get me on board with ian.
You've got to be kidding me. I stated multiple times that you are a suspect to me, but that I'd keep you alive for 2 reasons in night 1.
1. You're prone to be killed early by the mafia anyway if you are town, so better wait to see whether the mafia does the job.
2. You did a good job of setting up analysis at the beginning hence I would've preferred to keep you in the game at first for the fact that you may have been a valuable town member if my day 1 suspicion turns out to be wrong.
And indeed, it turned out to be wrong. You're not a valuable town member. You're either a town member on the wrong track or mafia, hence I have absolutely no problem lynching you at this point.
To all other: I stated both arguments already on day 1. I hope you once again recognize the flaws in knockouts argumentation towards me.
To the only post knockout mentioned: Maybe we have other ideas on "comfortable lynching", but you may see that it's a list that is mainly meant to exclude others if you'd put it into context. This can be f.e. seen on the point of putting sammy in brackets. Yes, I did assume that Aquarius is pro-town. But so did others right!? It was just a list of who I tend to trust after a day only based on their posts and nothing more.
Also, you make it sound as if I wanted to lynch all 5 people on the list, which is obviously not true. Therefore I stated my lynch vote and my suspicions on Ian Butler quite clearly to show who my favorite persons to lynch were. I see that compromising is not your strong side, but I guess that's due to the role you play here. But here you can see that my plan was on cooperation despite having stated before whom I trusted the least at that point. But again, your flipping my words in order to try and draw me in a shady light.
And if you still talk about me not explaining my moves than you gotta take the f***ing time it needs to reread all the posts and understand what has happened. Right now your narrow theories are just ridiculous. I'm not sure whether it's hilarious or disillusioning that people still jump on the wagon of framing me (and ryant) that you've been part of setting up.
Comfortable lynching: I dont see how you can be comfortable with more than perhaps 1 or 2 or maybe 3 players in the beginning of the game. Comfortable to me means i feel like the right people gets lynched and that are my top targets. So for me Ian or Aquarius day 1, ryant or croatia day 2, Ian day 3. Everyone else will be compromise lynches that i would fight long until the end of the day. It doesnt mean that i would not vote for anybody else but i would not be comfortable with anyone else. Being comfortable with lynching more than half the town is a clear sign that one either doesnt care who gets lynched (mafia?) or has to seriously reconsider his game.
"I would never lynch knockout/croatia day 1": We seem to have a very different understanding of this. I would lynch croatia for sure if he was my top candidate on day 1. But if multiple guys were similar suspicious - I'd go with whoever isnt croatia. Missunderstanding or wanting to disagree with my actions? i dont know.
#281: Comparing the two situations? Gotta be kidding me? How often did i wrote that i suspect Ian and that he would be my likely lynch vote? That was surely one of the most predictable/foreshadowed votes in the entire game and using a comparison to Ians reappearing-to-hammer to use my hammer as a defense or accusation is weird. Definitely a weird reason to suspect me.
- Generally he seems to suspect me right from the beginning and doesnt seem to be open to change his opinion about me. Knockout is bringing a "good structure" to the town on day 1 -> Suspicious. Knockout was the one heavily pushing Aquarius and Aquarius is mafia -> Knockout is strong enough to fake that. Knockout gets more silent once his prefered target is on his way to a lynch? -> A change in behaviour -> suspicious. Knockout waits till the end of the day before casting the heavily foreshadowed vote? -> Surely he wants to copy Ian out-of-nothing-hammer from the previous day. There is hardly any development in his opinion on me at all. He basically wrote on day one that he wants me lynched and sticked to that.
So does this make him mafiaish or townish? I have no idea. Whenever i try to use the Croatia i know as a measurement i come to the conclusion that he is more likely to be mafia. But if he really just doesnt want to spend much time on this edition then it is more reasonable and explains his behaviour more. However would he have such strong opinions on someone like me from the very beginning? I'm not sure... Really conflicted. Help me guys, what am I missing / missunderstanding.
@Croatia: I hope you got around to reread day 1 btw.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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