I agree with you that it will be extremely difficult for Iberia and Nemiroff to stay up, and as Project:Africa is already a goner, it looks increasingly interesting for the final 2 (?) spots.
IMO there is no way Wiesenhof will become relevant. They are almost scoring enough to stay clear and haven't had Taaramae in his key races yet.
eBuddy should have a good TdF, to move ahead and have decent depth to score from. I don't think they will relegate either.
RBC have quite a lot of racedays left for Phinney, and he could basically win/top 3 in all of them, so I would also count them out.
So I'm with you here. Your team, Spotify, Strava and then I wouldn't declare Tinkoff safe just yet either. One team you haven't mentioned though, Ayubowan! - I can't see them staying up. Monsalve is basically out of racedays (Maybe one race more). They have been rather lucky with riders like Yates and Gallopin so far - They can't count on that to continue, and neither Bellis nor McCarthy will score big. Same goes for Baugnies and Petit. I see them as the 4th safe bet for a relegation looking at current and potential points.
I'd love to see these examples of us being lucky with Yates and Gallopin so far. If anything, we've been incredibly unlucky with McCarthy and Bellis being consistently shite in hilly races
Saying that I expect us to relegate nonetheless, but I don't think we're dead and buried like Iberia and Nemiroff. More likely we hang around on the coat tails of the other teams in the scrap right until the end, without ever looking like we could escape.
jph27 wrote:
I'd love to see these examples of us being lucky with Yates and Gallopin so far.
Here you go:
Tirreno-Adriatico GC:
Spoiler
1
Aleksandr Pluchkin
Nemiroff - ABBYY
29h59'03
2
Taylor Phinney
RBC Pro Cycling
+ 2'26
3
Joseph Dombrowski
Pendleton's
+ 3'12
4
Angel Madrazo
Gazelle
+ 4'05
5
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier
Festina - Dexia
+ 4'37
6
Adam Yates
Ayubowan!
+ 6'33
7
Silvio Herklotz
Team Puma - SAP
+ 7'20
8
Jose Alarcon
Hugo Boss
+ 7'21
9
Rasmus Guldhammer
Aker - MOT
+ 7'36
10
Justo Tenorio
Iberia - Team Degenkolb
+ 8'22
11
Tiago Machado
Porto - Prio
+ 9'44
12
Tim Wellens
Spotify - Haglöfs
+ 10'06
13
Timofey Kritskiy
Tinkoff Sport Academy
+ 12'26
14
Thomas Dekker
Aegon - Lavazza
+ 13'26
15
Lachlan Morton
Jayco - Cobra9
+ 14'55
Scoring way above his level, ending up 6th, while riders with 81-84MO are behind him all the way down to 15th. Getting a stagewin, a 6th place, a 10th place, 7th PTS GC and 2nd U25.
Tour of California GC:
Spoiler
1
Tom Jelte Slagter
Hugo Boss
22h27'12
2
Andrei Amador
Team UBS
+ 26
3
Adam Yates
Ayubowan!
+ 4'08
4
Christopher Juul-Jensen
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
+ 6'56
5
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier
Festina - Dexia
+ 9'05
6
Justo Tenorio
Iberia - Team Degenkolb
+ 10'31
7
Thomas Dekker
Aegon - Lavazza
+ 10'53
8
Benat Intxausti
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
+ 11'43
9
Sean De Bie
Aegon - Lavazza
+ 14'02
10
Georg Preidler
Wiesenhof-Andritz
s.t.
In a race where he should have gotten 10th at most, he landed 3rd in the GC, winning the U25 competition
GP Liechtenstein:
Spoiler
1
Rein Taaramäe
Wiesenhof-Andritz
8h17'15
2
Joseph Dombrowski
Pendleton's
+ 1'13
3
Andy Schleck
Vesuvio - Accumalux
s.t.
4
Robert Gesink
eBuddy
+ 1'30
5
Simon Spilak
Festina - Dexia
+ 3'02
6
Tiago Machado
Porto - Prio
s.t.
7
Justo Tenorio
Iberia - Team Degenkolb
s.t.
8
Silvio Herklotz
Team Puma - SAP
+ 3'55
9
Adam Yates
Ayubowan!
+ 5'21
10
Yevgeni Nepomnyachsniy
Nemiroff - ABBYY
+ 6'08
11
Rasmus Guldhammer
Aker - MOT
s.t.
12
Martijn Keizer
Aegon - Lavazza
+ 6'52
Climbing better than the likes of Rasmus Guldhammer and Martijn Keizer, but also Kiserlovski, Nerz, Brajkovic, Hirt and König whom should also be around same level.
Beating several better riders such as Koretzky, Vakoc, Edmondson, Sanchez Gil, Slagter, Dowsett, Hoelgaard, Pichon etc. to name a few.
I could mention Gihan Pushpakumara as 6th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.
I don't know what to expect from Bellis to be honest. He is currently at 70th just behind Demare and ahead of Kristoff, Bilbao, Beltran etc. McCarthy could have been a bit higher, around Koretzky and Boswell, but he's less than 100 points behind, and with riders like Koretzky hitting a lucky stagewin in Tour of Norway I don't see the deficit being enough to be called underachiever though. That said, I don't know how many racedays he have used in comparison to those, as I guess it will have something to do with which GC races and PTCH races having raced at this point.
For me you have been way luckier than unlucky. Also Monsalve have performed 624 points, which I think is better than what I would have put him on. It's around what Ignatiev, Tenorio, Gastauer, Blythe and Morton scored last season, and if you take the limited racedays into account it's probably more comparable to even better riders.
I agree however that you aren't completely off the grid yet, but for me you are the safest bet besides the two already mentioned, simply because the remaining races ask for climbers, TT'ers and top sprinters for most races, and you basically have used up the climbers, don't have TT'ers and your sprinter is subtop, at best. You really need Yates, Bellis and McCarthy to deliver, and IMO there isn't many races that suits them. Sorry for the long post
There's certainly some evidence for Yates performing above his level Anyway, we already talked about McCarthy. He just needs to come home to finally hit his peak
@SotD You are right about Norway. Our file was only awarding 8 points for leading GC after a stage, for PTHC races. Ahlstrand also gains 2 more points from Norway then. I'll correct the rankings base file, but won't update the thread post.
And almost certainly Afrique, Pais Vasco and California also oweing a few points too.
This is my Vuelta ranking point stage by stage breakdown, summarised by Team:
Still looking quite ok, but we really need to start scoring again really soon to keep our PT winning dream alive. Festina are likely going above us after TdF in any case. Will be fun.
Anyway, we already talked about McCarthy. He just needs to come home to finally hit his peak 
