In times of many (mostly formula based) previews, that are always fun to read and discuss about it, I'm proud to announce my 100% no formula preview for the upcoming ProTour season. A preview completely based on my personal ratings and feelings about the 22 teams in the highest division of ManGame cycling.
The predictions for the final rankings is separated in three zones: the Top-7's, the Mid-8's and the Bottom-7's. I will start with the bottom teams, that will face a season battling against relegation (in my opinion). Step by step, we will then continue the previews up to those few teams, which will probably lead the division at the end of the year. The complete rankings prediction will then be revealed (but you can always check the current progress in this first post of the thread):
Strava comes off an impressive back-to-back promotion campaign and a totally different looking squad for their PT debut season: only seven of their current riders rode for the team last year. A rebuild, that allowed the management to sign premium puncheur Jan Bakelants for a heavy wage of 1,300,000€. Another key addition is Jacopo Guarnieri, who will lead a strong looking sprint/flat line-up, where Kris Boeckmans was another promising arrival for Strava.
While Boeckmans could be the dark horse of the team, the scoring heavily depends on Bakelants and Guarnieri. Which will be the big issue for Strava eventually. Of course Bakelants is one of the world's best puncheurs and he should produce some valuable scoring for his new team. Guarnieri is also capable to add key points, but the Italian ain't amongst the very top of the best sprinters in the ProTour. Strava "legend" Sebastian Langeveld is the team's best cobbler, but despite his past success, he should struggle to perform on this level. Still one of the better assets behind the three key arrivals.
With no stage racer, no TT depth and no outstanding cobbler, Strava will have to hope for many many breakaway showings in every race, that Bakelants or their two main sprinters won't ride. And while it's still a likeable team, it's probably a tough season ahead. If Bakelants and a pretty solid core of puncheurs behind him will deliver big time, there might be a chance to somehow avoid the relegation.
Just like Strava, also Ayubowan! will most likely struggle to finish above the relegation zone. But let's have a look at the positives before: the three key arrivals Jerome Baugnies, Jay McCarthy and Yonathan Monsalve (picture above) should be solid scorers with a fair amount of race days, too. All three not amongst the best in their respective terrains, they still are capable of pulling a few notable results during the season. With Adam Yates as a second solid stage racer behind Monsalve, Ayubowan! should at least be able to score a few Top-15/20 results in mountainous stage races.
But life in ProTour ain't easy and with none of their leaders in the 82+ area, the Sri Lankian team will probably miss out on huge results. Baugnies though may be an exception, as he should be able to compete with the best cobblers on a good daily form and hilly parcours. McCarthy comes with a great stamina and may do quite well in the long hilly classics, too.
No top sprinter, no TT beast and 17 unmaxed riders on the squad: it's both the lack of a premium scorer and depth, that will give Ayubowan! a hard time in the ProTour this year. Though it must be said, that it's still a plus, that the team won't just rely on a huge GT result or only one real star like Strava does. Some consistent performances from their leaders may see the team finishing better than my predicted 21st place.
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Monsalve
Yates
Stage Races
McCarthy
Petit
Depth
Baugnies
Bellis
Hills
Yates' future
Depth
17 unmaxed
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
20 | Project: Africa [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/pjCI5CQ.png[/img-r]
Martin | Meintjes
Season planning might be the biggest issue for Project: Africa, but it will probably be a tough season anyway. A hard team to predict, as there's some interesting depth in the team, especially for mountains and hills. And in addition to Louis Meintjes and Riccardo Ricco, the management could add Daniel Martin as another potent stage racer in the off-season. So the team comes with three 80+ climbers (and 77+ on hills). That's definitely some promising value to score consistently in stage races.
Another important addition is Georgos Tzortzakis, who left the ProTour champions Festina. The Greek comes off a pretty good season and is another potentially high scoring piece in the rather big roster. While TTs and Cobbles won't bring much success, there's still at least a couple of minor scorers in each of those two terrains as well.
Overall, that doesn't sound too bad. But Project: Africa may still relegate, as Martin and Tzortzakis won't easily score the needed points. They can, but it will depend on good planning and of course luck. If the depth in stage races will pay off, the team can reach something real solid in it's ProTour debut. It's definitely a roster with the potential to prove my prediction wrong.
With Metinvest disbanding after the 2016 campaign, we had one of the best stage racers on the market: Aleksandr Pluchkin obviously was a big target for the promoted Nemiroff team and signed a huge contract worth 1,626,000€. Landing a GT winner is always a big deal for a team coming from the PCT, so yeah, Nemiroff definitely got some quality here. There was not much room for any more big addition to the roster though.
Anyway, the team still comes with some solid assets in TTTs and sprints. With Romain Vanderbiest, they do have a sprinter capable of pulling some notable results for valuable points. Even though he's no top quality in the ProTour. The complete lack of cobblers and a rather weak setup for hilly classics and ITTs will hurt the scoring as well.
On the plus side, there's Pluchkin and a solid core of climbers behind him. Except of maybe Nepomnyachsniy, there's probably no one to score notable results on their own though. So Nemiroff pretty much depends on Pluchkin and Vanderbiest. While Pluchkin surely has the beasty skills to save a team from relegation, that's definitely as risky as Strava depending on Bakelants. The good thing for Nemiroff is, that Pluchkin is likely to score a significant higher amount of points.
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Pluchkin
Ulanowski
Stage Races
Vanderbiest
Nepomnyachsniy
Depth
Pluchkin's wage
Hills
Depth
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
18 | Hugo Boss [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/pjCI5CQ.png[/img-r]
Ponzi | Alacorn
Another promoted team, that managed to sign big free agents: Simone Ponzi and Jose Alacorn make for a great leader's duo in any team in the ProTour. Especially Ponzi, who's (imo) the best puncheur in the world right now, will surely help the team scoring big points in his terrain. Even more, since Hugo Boss built a nice support team for him. Hilly races will see their colors dominating the front.
Alacorn is another heavy scorer for the team, so you may wonder, why I'm predicting the team in the red zone. Well, the complete lack of scorers in the cobbled and flat races will surely leave some good pressure on the mentioned leaders. There's some TT strength with Mario Gonzales Salas and given the TT results in the past years, he may actually grab some lucky points.
Of all the teams I've previewed so far, Hugo Boss has maybe the biggest upside potential. If Ponzi does his Ponzi and Alacorn delivers a great GT result (which he can do), the team could finish safely above the relegation zone. It will be a close battle in the second half of the ProTour rankings anyway, so any (un)lucky result may have a big impact.
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Ponzi
Carapaz
Stage Races
Alarcon
Gonzalez Salas
Depth
Depth in MO/HI
Hills
Ponzi's stats
Depth
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
17 | Iberia - Team Degenkolb [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/pjCI5CQ.png[/img-r]
Degenkolb
With the management deciding to add his name to the team's branding, the pressure for John Degenkolb couldn't be much bigger, I fear. The reigning German road champion is the face of the team (formerly known as Pokerstars). With Rick Zabel joining Iberia from Wiesenhof, there's another big name surrounding the squad and while the train for Degenkolb may lack a piece or two, the setup for sprints is still strong enough to except some fine scoring afterall.
As for the non-flat races, Iberia still relies on Tenorio, Izagirre and Faiers. A super-strong Tenorio will surely do his stuff in stage races, so here's another big scorer beside Degenkolb. But while Izagirre comes with a fine skillset (combining hills with TT power), he will probably struggle in most hilly races except those, that come with timetrial kilometres. The cobble section lacks an outstanding leader, but comes with two dark horses (Kluge, Maes), who may grab a fair amount of points here and then.
I still expect the team to battle against relegation until the end. Degenkolb needs to be in shape in every race he enters. If he delivers Iberia a season that is worth his name in the team's branding, there's of course a chance to stay in the ProTour for another year. Also Tenorio can lift a team a few places in the rankings. What will hurt is the lack of depth in mountain and hills though.
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Degenkolb
Zabel
Stage Races
Tenorio
Kluge
Depth
Izagirre
Hills
Latour's future
Depth
Depth in FL
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
16 | Porto - Prio [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/pjCI5CQ.png[/img-r]
Reis | Machado | Zmorka
A tough choice, so I have to say straight away: a team that can finish a few places upwards, if other (higher predicted) teams perform just slightly beneath their strengths. Porto - Prio has one of my favorite setups, though lacking the scoring power in a few key departements. The addition of both Jacob Fiedler and Marlen Zmorka though is a lovely move (which may surprise only a few people, that it's a lovely move for a tsmoha preview). Even though TTs tend to be bitchy at some days, a 83/82 combo garantuees Porto points through timetrials. That's given.
And then there's still Tiago Machado in his last year at the best. The gifted climber will need to perform in any race he enters and while he's not amongst the real beasts of stage racing, he certainly should be capable to pull a few notable results. There's Vinhas as a 80 MO domesqtique, but the team lacks the real depth in this terrain. Rafael Reis is a solid second-tier stage racer though. Lacking acceleration, Reis may still climb to a few scores behind what Machado is able to do.
Avelino is not my favorite sprinter, but with his 83 sprint stat, he should be there in many bunch sprints. Not a top scorer though and that's why Porto - Prio may be in troubles at some point. Cobbles and hills won't do much either, even though Bruno Borges may actually sneak a few results thanks to his great kick on short climbs. The great TTT setup will add key points however. As said before, a team that is hard to predict, but given the lack of depth except of timetrials, it will be a long season for Porto.
Jonas Ahlstrand remains the superstar of this interesting team, that managed to add a few key additions in the off-season. The arrival of two solid stage racers (Wellens, Abal) and the light version of Bewley (Stallaert) will surely help Spotify to be a competitive team in the ProTour this year.
Ahlstrand, aged 27, is a great sprinter and while he still needs some training to be as strong as someone like Ben Swift, the Swede should still be a consistent scorer already in this upcoming season. If he's "allowed" to sprint from his own train, there are a few nice leadouts with Reimer, Kvist and Kragh Andersen. Sprints can be tricky though, so Ahlstrand not yet being as reliable as Swifty is an issue for Spotify.
Anyway, the already mentioned additions may make up for that. Wellens and Abal won't be top scorers, but Spotify's depth in both climbing and hills (though lacking a top puncheur here) will certainly give valuable points through consistent Top-20 results. Especially in stage races that is. A solid TTT setup and Stallaert may be key scorers then. Stallaert may suffer against the very best cobblers, but he comes with a thrilling COB/SPR combo and may a be a true force in a couple of years.
Just like Hugo Boss, here's a team with some upside potential: eBuddy has one great leader in Robert Gesink. The 31 years old stage racer comes off a big year and will hope to repeat his scoring output from 2016. If he does so, eBuddy has one of the most potent scorers of all teams in the bottom of my predicted rankings (well, beside the likes of Pluchkin and Ponzi of course).
Behind Gesink, there's Brambilla and Aru, who should be useful domestiques at least. Brambilla may sneak a few minor results if he gets to ride as a leader somewhere, but he's not amongst the better 2nd tier stage racers in the division. As for hilly classics, there's Ian Boswell and a few riders adding depth. Boswell won't be a big deal in the ProTour this season, but he may have a bright future if he's trained. Overall, eBuddy mostly relies on Gesink in races with climbs, but there's some depth to provide points.
Grosu is a key addition for the sprints. Not a top-top sprinter yet, his combination of HI/SPR will lead to some notable results and valuable points income. A few cobblers and TT guys won't be thrilling scorers, but there's potential. Damien Howson as the crowned Oceanian TT champion just proved that a couple of days ago. With Floris Gerts, eBuddy has not only a possible dark horse for hilly cobbled races, but a future beast for the ToNE in particular.
When looking at Gazelle's roster, there's one word that immediately jumps into your head: depth. The amount of puncheurs and climbers is simply insane and is topped by a great duo Madrazo/Ginanni. When also adding Ian Bibby to that setup, Gazelle really got a ridicolous deep stage racing support as well.
Madrazo as the top scorer will remain a true force for stage races and thanks to a deep TTT core, that can also handle climbs very well, the team will probably see some nice scoring through GC placings even for it's domestiques. Which may become the reason for Gazelle finishing higher than my prediction. Also Ginanni, undisputed leader in the hills, knows a core of good helpers behind him. Insane stuff, as already said.
So we have a great stage racer, puncheur and a very strong TTT lineup. On the other hand, there's no sprinter and only one cobbler with Veelers (who probably won't do much damage despite his sprint skills). With also no premium TT specialist, this hurts the team's chances to finish higher in the rankings. Surely an interesting squad with so much depth in those other terrains.
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Madrazo
Veelers
Stage Races
Ginanni
Depth in MO/HI
Depth
Bibby
TTT Setup
Hills
This depth..
Depth
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
12 | Tinkoff Sport Academy [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/QaQ9MN0.png[/img-r]
Kritskiy | Trofimov
Russia's proud will once again being led by a potent duo: Kritskiy and Trofimov as Tinkoff's undisputed leaders and top scorers. Definitely a nice duo to have, even though Trofimov is now beginning to decrease. The allrounder still offers a great skillset and should be up for another heavy point scoring season: his combination of HI/TT plus great backups and finishing speed is still pretty awesome. But his scoring output is also a huge key for Tinkoff's success.
Behind Trofimov and Kritskiy (who's amongst the best stage racers despite a rather underwhelming acceleration), there's not much scoring depth in mountains and hills. A few premium domestiques in each of this two terrains, but nothing spectacular like Gazelle has to offer. The TTT depth is pretty good though and there's a new 80 TT guy with Yatsevich now. The almost 100% Russian squad (only two Italians) should be amongst the best TTT setups in the ProTour.
It's never easy or fair to predict your own team's success, so what's better than going for the most neutral prediction and go for the 11th place in the ranking? Jayco(z) finished 11th in it's first ProTour season and went to finish 14th last year. Both placings are possible again this year. There have been made some changes to the roster with Matthew Goss and Michael Ford leaving the team in order to train Jack Bobridge and Lachlan Morton. Will this pay off eventually?
Bobridge with his 83 HI, 77 TT and 80 ACC setup remains the top scorer for Jayco. He should be Top20 material for the individual PT ranking. Morton has to perform according to his 83 MO now. Lacking a proper ACC, the young Aussie is still amongst the better climbers in the division now. With Jack Haig being maxed, there's at least a second scorer in stage races, even though his MO needs training. A tricky setup overall: Burghardt has been replaced by Vanspeybrouck, so cobbles will still get a fair amount of points. If Bobridge and Morton make up for the loss of Goss, a finish between 10-14 looks achievable for Jayco.
Another hard to predicting team, that comes with a pretty special setup: opposing to a few other "formula hating" teams with only one or two main scorers (Nemiroff, Hugo Boss, eBuddy), Evonik has three fine leaders while completely lacking scorers in two departments (stage races and TTs). Van Avermaet remains the biggest competitor for Sam Bewley, Van Stayen should be a real force in sprints and Skujins is a top level puncheur (who just won a mountainous European B championships race).
The biggest plus for Evonik comes from the puncheurs: Skujins as a potent scorer and some fine depth behind him. The Latvian will surely get some valuable points and his fast finishing domestiques should add fine results in the lower Top-20/30s as well. Van Avermaet has his last year of challenging Bewley and while he lacks an extraordinary strong support, he's another big scorer. Same goes for Van Stayen.
Evonik has no notable stage racers and TT guys though. I've rated similar teams way worse (for the already mentioned reasons), but of course also Evonik has both some up- and downside. If their three stars deliver at the expected level, I can't see Evonik finishing lower than 10th. If one struggles, it may be a lower finish eventually.
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Van Avermaet
Depth in HI
Stage Races
Skujins
GvA - MvS - TS
Depth
Van Stayen
Hills
Depth
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
9 | RBC Pro Cycling [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/QaQ9MN0.png[/img-r]
Howard | Phinney | Summerhill
The Canadian team had a fine off-season, when they managed to add Danny Summerhill and Leigh Howard. Two leaders, who will surely provide RBC a nice amount of additional points. With Taylor Phinney as the team's outstanding superstar, that makes for a fine trio, obviously. There's not much quality 2nd tier leaders though. So Phinney's limited race days may be an issue, as there's a significant lower MO and TT power without him.
But let's focus on the positives: Phinney has a huge stage racing setup and should be amongst the best scorers through stage races. The reigning TT world champion is (simple like that) just a great rider to have. His compatriot Summerhill finally arrives at the ProTour after leaving Azteca. The US boy is one of the finest cobblers in the division and will be another big scorer for RBC.
Howard ain't a special sprinter at this level, but if he adds those ~400pts, that he's capable to achieve, that's fine enough for a sprinter. A few solid TT guys (but no proper TTT setup) may grab a result somewhere, but that's not given. Anyway, relying on Phinney/Summerhill ain't too shabby. RBC probably won't go much higher than my predicted 9th place, but the team looks promising to become a steady ProTour contender.
And another top stage racer: Wiesenhof signed Rein Taaramäe for a wage of 1,400,000€ and turned him into one of the world's best stagers through training. The 30 years old Estonian now comes with an outstanding 85MO/81TT skillset. Taaramäe should have his career season ahead and so Wiesenhof has made a big deal here.
Opposing to Nemiroff (which spent 200k more for Pluchkin), Wiesenhof offers a potent 2nd tier stage racer though: Mattia Cattaneo. A 82MO co-leader is surely a fine thing to have. Assuming, that they will ride different races, there's some huge potential for Wiesenhof to score big time in stage races. And while the mountain department ain't too special behind Taaramäe/Cattaneo, there's also some depth in the hilly one. But, and that's an issue for Wiesenhof in all other terrains, there's no more big scorer on the roster.
Dowsett (80HI), Schädlich (80TT), Zepuntke (81COB) and Stauff (80SPR) are solid enough to help Wiesenhof being much higher rated than other teams with one or two big scorers. But except maybe Zepuntke or Schädlich, I can't see those guys racking up big points. There's no TTT lineup and (yes, Stauff) no scoring sprinter. But thanks to a beasty Taaramäe and Cattaneo/Zepuntke as other scorers, Wiesenhof should enter the Top-10 eventually.
A team with three leaders being 26 years (Dombrowski) or younger (Lutsenko, Senechal) - all 81+ in their main stat - is pretty sick. Pendleton's has definitely built a strong core for some thrilling years to come, but the team will already be quite competitive in 2017. Dombrowski as one of the best climbers in the division already at his age, that's just a cool thing to have.
There's some solid depth behind him as well and with veteran Vincenzo Nibali still being capable of pulling a few results through stage racing, Pendleton's should score valuable points on this department. Lutsenko leads the squad in hilly races then. Not amongst the very best puncheurs (according to his main stat), the Kazakh comes with a sick acceleration (81) and nice backup stats. He may grab some notable results already this season.
Florian Senechal ain't the most complete cobbler yet, but with 82COB he will surely be a Top10 contender in every less hilly cobbled classic at least. That's three fine leaders and Nibali, but Pendleton's has also Jurgen Roelandts for the sprints (though no top material despite his fine hill stat) and at least a few solid TT guys. A team like Evonik may outscore Pendleton's eventually, but I predict them to have a great season and that's why they are on 7th in my ranking.
I have to say it before: the next three teams were so hard to predict, that it could have easily gone the other way around. But let's start with Aegon - Lavazza as 6th for now. The team, that only lacks a potent cobbler to be a Top3 contender in the ProTour. With their leaders remaining the same as last year (Keizer, Swift, De Bie), there's a great core of point scorers, that has been bulstered with an aging Thomas Dekker in this off-season.
Keizer and Dekker both ain't amongst the best climbers in the division, but their stage race package is great. The team is missing an extraordinary depth behind those two and premium domestique Dan Olivier though. Anyway, a nice duo to have and the Dutchmen should score pretty consistent. Same goes for De Bie, who's a fine puncheur with a solid TT stat as well. In addition to that, Aegon also has some TTT depth, though not at the top level (as both Dekker and Keizer would have to ride all TTTs to make it a good setup).
The strongest rider on the roster remains Ben Swift, who's one of the best (if not the best) sprinters in the world. Swifty and Groenewegen (82SPR with just 24 years) make for a thrilling duo. The latter may be Swift's leadout in a few events, but I assume he will mostly add some results through races as the team's main sprinter. So we should expect Aegon to line up with a favorite sprinter in many races. Top notch. Opposing to cobbles, where Lars Boom ain't exactly frightening anyone. His allround package is great for the Tour of Northern Europe though. So also Boom will have a chance to score key points.
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Keizer
Groenewegen
Stage Races
Swift
Boom
Depth
Dekker
Olivier
Hills
De Bie
TTT Setup
Depth
Boom in ToNE
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
5 | Team Puma - SAP [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/VdHBwlD.png[/img-r]
Herklotz | Ciolek | Kelderman
It took Puma years to build this roster and now it feels like their manager's baby has finally arrived: Team Puma - SAP 2017, aiming for a Top5 in the ProTour! It's obviously a tough way into the Top5 and the team may just need another season or two until it's complete enough to be a true title contender as well. But there's some serious talent at Puma and several scoring opportunities. Ciolek as the obvious face of the team, despite giving his manager some hard feelings from time to time.
Anyway, the sprint setup is one of better in the division and with a freak like Demare, it's hard to imagine that Puma won't be a great team for years to come. Demare's role this season (with 79HI 80SPR) will be interesting, but the sprint points should mainly come from Ciolek anyway. If he performs on a consistent level, he may finally get all the love he wants. He ain't Swift though.
For climbs and stage races and hills, Puma comes with a pretty deep lineup: led by another future freak (Herklotz) and a premium puncheur (Kelderman), there's also Nerz as a second 80+ climber, who's a solid stage racer as well. A few more nice assets and here we have a pretty strong setup for stage races and hilly races. With also a great cobbler (Blythe) and a 80 TT guy (Sütterlin) on the roster, there's scoring opportunities on all terrains. You better not think about what Herklotz will already do in 2018..
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Kelderman
Nerz
Stage Races
Ciolek
Demare
Depth
Herklotz
Bevin
Hills
Blythe
Depth in MO/HI
Depth
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
4 | Aker - MOT [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/VdHBwlD.png[/img-r]
But well, Aker - MOT gets my better prediction, even though they lack an outstanding stage racer: Guldhammer, Galta and maybe Beltran will provide some solid and consistent scoring via lower Top10 or Top15 finishes. Nothing to be worried about from the other team's point of view. There's no premium puncheur at all, but Beltran and Dyrnes may at least snatch a few surprising results thanks to their backup stats. There's no TT power, which may actually be the reason for Aker to live up with my high expectations.
Speaking of power, there's definitely some overwhelming depth for cobbles: Trentin leads a group of six (including Kristoff) more 77+ cobblers. The Italian ain't amongst the Bewley/GVA freaks yet, but his 81COB/75SPR/74HIL combo should make him one of the most dangerous cobblers this year. Aker's colors have to dominate those classics and if they do, they could produce some heavy scoring results. If they won't, this 4th place in my prediction is a few places too high.
Andy Schleck is still the face of the team and turning 32 years, his prime is slowly coming to an end. The premium climber has still at least this season to be amongst the very best stage racers, so Vesuvio can rely on his production. With Wiesenhof training Taaramäe, it's becoming more challenging for Schleck to produce those numbers he got used to though.
The management added some nice depth to the stage racing department, as both Nico Keinath and Leopold König will be both great premium domestiques and useful additional scorers (while not being too great 2nd tier leaders). Anyway, they should come some nice numbers through stage racers this year. The same goes for hills, where Gastauer is amongst the better puncheurs in the division. Some solid depth here as well, even though there's no second big scorer for Vesuvio here.
And that's the only issue I've had with Vesuvio: no premium scorer behind Schleck/Gastauer. Kittel (81TT), Vanmarcke (80COB) and Van der Lijke (80SPR) ain't too special leaders in their respective terrains. Van der Lijke with some nice skills to go over hills, so he may be something like a dark horse if planned right (and you better expect SN to plan smart). And while the second row in Vesuvio's leadership lacks the top quality, there's at least some scoring on each terrain. Something a few other teams lack.
Festina on 2nd? Well, it's possible this year. But of course this is an outstanding team and there should be quite a gap between them and Vesuvio (or whoever comes 3rd eventually) in the final rankings. Festina is everyone's favorite for making another title campaign and just for the fun of it, I've predicted them 2nd. But why exactly can I do so?
Well, if you want to find some weakness, there's the cobbles. Tom David and Pieter Jacobs won't do much damage in the ProTour. No depth behind them, so Festina hasn't got much power here. The TT depth ain't special as well, but of course there's Coppel and Vlatos as two potentially high scoring specialists. So that's more or less all about some minor weaknesses in that roster.
Spilak and Lecuisinier simply build a fascinating stage racing duo. Spilak as one of the best in the world and the latter as one of the best in the making. The 24 years old Frenchman comes off a very good season and as we can expect SotD do plan his season well, there's no reason to think he won't plan another high scoring year for Lecuisinier. No special depth behind the duo though. For the hills, there's Koretzky, who's just fine enough, but no top material with his 80HIL. A consistent scorer still.
Coquard is the only scoring sprinter for Festina now. He's a good asset to any team, but obviously he's not amongst the very top of the division's best sprinters. He will add valuable points though and with Tzortzakis gone, he needs to do so. Overall, Festina will score on any terrains (also Tom David of course), so it's another season with a good chance to repeat the success from the past seasons.
So here we have my prediction for the ProTour champion 2017: Moser - Sygic (formerly known as Becherovka). It's obviously a tough call, as Festina won't be beaten easily, but there's a chance for Moser, so I assume they will take it. There's only one weakness - in TTs - but let's just go over it as fast as possible.
Sam Bewley remains the monster he is and the cobbler/sprinter will produce heavy numbers for Moser wherever he attends. That's why the team's sprint departement is rated so high: with Vesely (81SPR) probably only sprinting to a few minor results, Bewley's results on both the cobbles and the bunch sprints make it possible for Moser to be rated in those spheres. There's some depth in cobbles, but not as outstanding as Aker - MOT. But Bewley obviously won't care too much and do his stuff.
Velits/Hirt (though not maxed yet) will be a nice duo in stage races. Some good depth for Moser here, too. Velits lacks the acceleration to be the real big scorer, but - turning 32 years old - he will take his last chance to climb amongst the best in the world. Sagan/Vakoc is a great duo for the hills then. Sagan has become one of the world's best puncheurs and if he performs slightly above his main stat (82HIL), the title campaign is indeed possible. From my personal point of view, it's a sick team, that also comes with the best looking "headline photo" in my preview.
Strava comes off an impressive back-to-back promotion campaign and a totally different looking squad for their PT debut season: only seven of their current riders rode for the team last year. A rebuild, that allowed the management to sign premium puncheur Jan Bakelants for a heavy wage of 1,300,000€. Another key addition is Jacopo Guarnieri, who will lead a strong looking sprint/flat line-up, where Kris Boeckmans was another promising arrival for Strava.
While Boeckmans could be the dark horse of the team, the scoring heavily depends on Bakelants and Guarnieri. Which will be the big issue for Strava eventually. Of course Bakelants is one of the world's best puncheurs and he should produce some valuable scoring for his new team. Guarnieri is also capable to add key points, but the Italian ain't amongst the very top of the best sprinters in the ProTour. Strava "legend" Sebastian Langeveld is the team's best cobbler, but despite his past success, he should struggle to perform on this level. Still one of the better assets behind the three key arrivals.
With no stage racer, no TT depth and no outstanding cobbler, Strava will have to hope for many many breakaway showings in every race, that Bakelants or their two main sprinters won't ride. And while it's still a likeable team, it's probably a tough season ahead. If Bakelants and a pretty solid core of puncheurs behind him will deliver big time, there might be a chance to somehow avoid the relegation.
Just like Strava, also Ayubowan! will most likely struggle to finish above the relegation zone. But let's have a look at the positives before: the three key arrivals Jerome Baugnies, Jay McCarthy and Yonathan Monsalve (picture above) should be solid scorers with a fair amount of race days, too. All three not amongst the best in their respective terrains, they still are capable of pulling a few notable results during the season. With Adam Yates as a second solid stage racer behind Monsalve, Ayubowan! should at least be able to score a few Top-15/20 results in mountainous stage races.
But life in ProTour ain't easy and with none of their leaders in the 82+ area, the Sri Lankian team will probably miss out on huge results. Baugnies though may be an exception, as he should be able to compete with the best cobblers on a good daily form and hilly parcours. McCarthy comes with a great stamina and may do quite well in the long hilly classics, too.
No top sprinter, no TT beast and 17 unmaxed riders on the squad: it's both the lack of a premium scorer and depth, that will give Ayubowan! a hard time in the ProTour this year. Though it must be said, that it's still a plus, that the team won't just rely on a huge GT result or only one real star like Strava does. Some consistent performances from their leaders may see the team finishing better than my predicted 21st place.
Top Scorers
Additional
Overall
Rating
Monsalve
Yates
Stage Races
McCarthy
Petit
Depth
Baugnies
Bellis
Hills
Yates' future
Depth
17 unmaxed
Cobbles
Depth
Sprints
Depth
TT
Depth
20 | Project: Africa [img-r]https://i.imgur.com/pjCI5CQ.png[/img-r]
Martin | Meintjes
Season planning might be the biggest issue for Project: Africa, but it will probably be a tough season anyway. A hard team to predict, as there's some interesting depth in the team, especially for mountains and hills. And in addition to Louis Meintjes and Riccardo Ricco, the management could add Daniel Martin as another potent stage racer in the off-season. So the team comes with three 80+ climbers (and 77+ on hills). That's definitely some promising value to score consistently in stage races.
Another important addition is Georgos Tzortzakis, who left the ProTour champions Festina. The Greek comes off a pretty good season and is another potentially high scoring piece in the rather big roster. While TTs and Cobbles won't bring much success, there's still at least a couple of minor scorers in each of those two terrains as well.
Overall, that doesn't sound too bad. But Project: Africa may still relegate, as Martin and Tzortzakis won't easily score the needed points. They can, but it will depend on good planning and of course luck. If the depth in stage races will pay off, the team can reach something real solid in it's ProTour debut. It's definitely a roster with the potential to prove my prediction wrong.
baseballlover312 wrote:
I'm really looking forward to this! Formula based previews are cool, but I really missed these subjective, in depth ones so far. Glad to see this one!
I absolutely love the graphical work you put into this. Nice to see someone who is still willing to make "old school" predictions instead of relying on some weird formula! Keep up the good work.
This is a preview in my taste, I do like all of them but hey you always have one favorite. Glad we where not posted in that first three, but guess we will come very soon.
Great stuff! tsmoha layouts always deliver, and I second every one of my predecessors. I hope we'll have to wait a long time to hear your thoughts about us.
Btw if you don't have our 2017 shirt to do the fancy preview shot, it's exactly the same as last year.
Yes! I love the style and subjectivity of this preview tsmoha Looking forward to seeing the rest of the preview, and those lovely graphics, come in.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Lovely preview, really enjoyed reading it. Not a good transfer season behind us, many riders to expensive for my liking but too late to change plans by then. Here's hoping to prevent the inevitable.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Thanks for the kind words, guys! Hope you will enjoy the complete preview then
@roturn: Yeah, fair point. Strava indeed may indeed deserve 4/5 in depth then. Probably wouldn't change my prediction though..
@cio: I know
@knockout: Yeah, kind of. The first rating is for the strength in the top of a team's terrain. So for most teams, it's the rating for the best scorer in this terrain, yes. The depth then defines the total strength.
The next four bottom teams will be up in an hour or so. Stay tuned.
