So, I couldn't resist. Found some time to create some new ideas for a preview, leading onto this "sustainable quocient prediction" for MG's CT 2017.
Remember that I always massively overrate back-up stats and team depth, so don't be surprised if you very much disagree with this prediction. The quotient includes a different approach than most of the previews - and even if I put a bigger amount of time into creating suiting ones I do not claim to have spoken the wisdoms final judgement, but instead try to give a handy prediction that creates controversial discussions.
There is a qualitative analysis system behind it, that worked with a grading system of different hidden values & categories. Those added up to a "strength coefficient" reaching from 0 to 20, determining the final positions in this preview.
1.
World Cycling Centre
16,9
Bush, Boily
19
2.
Kulczyk - DMTEX
16
Penasa, Havik
17
3.
In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
15,6
Reus, vdHugenhaben
11
4.
Philips - Continental
15,2
Drucker, Bardet
11
5.
Xero Racing p/b Octagon
14,2
Bennett, Roux
18
6.
cycleYorkshire
12,8
Tvetcov, Dennis
13
7.
Azteca - NBCSN
11,4
Eastman, Chaves
12
8.
Team Reddit
11,1
Monfort, Meyer
8
9.
Sauber Petronas Racing
10,5
Zoidl, Chavanne
15
10.
Telia - Brussels Airline
10
Nizzolo, Hacecky
9
11.
Repsol - Honda
8,5
Valls, Cunego
9
12.
Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
8,4
Granjel, Atapuma
12
13.
Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
8,3
Martin, Geschke
12
14.
Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack PC
8,3
vKeirsbulck, Pellaud
11
15.
The Balkan Cycling Project
8,2
Karnulin, Mezgec
15
16.
Campari - SuperDry
7,8
Cataldo, Gatto
9
17.
Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
7,3
Pozzovivo, Christian
6
18.
Andorra Cycling Project
7
Rujano, Kireva
7
19.
SanCor
6,1
Diaz, Juarez
11
20.
VMP - Argon 18
6,1
Panayotov, Bole
4
21.
Eddie Stobart
5,8
Suaza, Thorsen
4
22.
Proximus Continental Team
5,7
Lindeman, vPoppel
9
23.
Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
5,3
Campero, Roe
10
24.
Statoil Pro Cycling
3,3
Bookwalter, Ratto
14
If you now wondered what the hell the last row is: That is the (again subjective) future strength of the team. That should roughly draw the team's strength with the same riders in the year 2020, including all stat increases and decreases. It should give an idea of the relation of talent/quality focus, and how sustainable a team is built up from my (subjective) point of view.
Feel free to shatter my opinions by telling me how wrong I am, I'll happily answer any questions to this prediction. Cheers!
Certainly an intersting outcome, no complaints from me if your crystal ball is 100% foolproof Croatia14, just feel that is unlikely. The chances of some teams seem quite a bit under-rated in my opinion, but I guess I have more of a middle ground feel for the balance of main vs. 2ndary stats than your take.
CT is the division where it is perhaps 'easiest' to neglect a terrain and not suffer too much (although the C2HC banding this year and less wide calendar choices does produce some more streamlining that limits the benefit of being too narrow in focus). Not sure this is picked up in this particular analysis too well (or a relevant input at all!), but wonder if this is why a couple of teams are surprisingly higher/lower than gut instinct would propose?
The 'future strength' coefficient is an interesting innovation. Out of interest, have you included loan riders returning/departing when composing the '2020 picture'? WCC have tried to attract leaders with their best years still ahead of them, and develop support riders in-house. Seems your analysis likes this approach, hopefully PCM AI will agree!
I honestly feel like Valls has no competition in the mountains with your team and his substats, apart from Eastman but he'll likely have a different schedule due to Azteca requesting two HC wildcards. That's why I ranked you this high
Scorchio wrote:
Certainly an intersting outcome, no complaints from me if your crystal ball is 100% foolproof Croatia14, just feel that is unlikely. The chances of some teams seem quite a bit under-rated in my opinion, but I guess I have more of a middle ground feel for the balance of main vs. 2ndary stats than your take.
CT is the division where it is perhaps 'easiest' to neglect a terrain and not suffer too much (although the C2HC banding this year and less wide calendar choices does produce some more streamlining that limits the benefit of being too narrow in focus). Not sure this is picked up in this particular analysis too well (or a relevant input at all!), but wonder if this is why a couple of teams are surprisingly higher/lower than gut instinct would propose?
The 'future strength' coefficient is an interesting innovation. Out of interest, have you included loan riders returning/departing when composing the '2020 picture'? WCC have tried to attract leaders with their best years still ahead of them, and develop support riders in-house. Seems your analysis likes this approach, hopefully PCM AI will agree!
Yes, I have included all loan riders going back to their teams. Which is one of the points why you rank on the sunshine-spot in the future ranking.
I'd think that it's possible to neglect one terrain without loosing many points, but with 2 it starts to get dangerous - these thoughts are, of course, included in the coefficient.
Would you like to name the teams that are surprisingly higher/lower? So far I figured out that the most discussable ones are Azteca and Proximus, but feel free to leave your suggestions!
When my own CT prediction is finalised and published, an easy comparison will be possible. Just have to wait! My own approach is completely subjective rather than based on equations/metrics, so potentially offers up more chance for illogical bias and hence discussion either pre- or post-season .
Folk should keep in mind that we do get the chance to review the various performance of predictions after the season is over, so inputs pre-season get 'two-bites at the cherry' so-to-speak in terms of productive outputs!
Two promotion predictions? Not sure why you guys put us there but I won't complain! Love the interesting stats Croatia, my favourite is obviously putting us second in future strength And nice work Vien, not sure about Repsol though (even if Valls gets 500 I don't see the rest making another 900 to get 6th).
Also Vien I don't see Roux winning individual Edited by jandal7 on 07-10-2017 21:51
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
I honestly feel like Valls has no competition in the mountains with your team and his substats, apart from Eastman but he'll likely have a different schedule due to Azteca requesting two HC wildcards. That's why I ranked you this high
Even considering that Valls does a perfect season (that would be winning everything he rides in C2(HC) he would score around 600-650, it would still needs that my team overperforms a lot to be fighting for direct promotion
Croatia, I'm struggling to see what the 2 named riders are there for, I thought maybe it would be the highest scorers but our season will go really wrong if Chavanne out scores Salleh. As they are both maxed already I don't think it is based on their future strength either so can't work out what it is.
I am hoping to be a little bit higher than you predicted as I feel like we added enough to move up more than one place in the rankings compared to last season.
Aquarius97 wrote: @Croatia Having a really old team, really surprised to see that we would actually improve with our current squad in 2020
Valls still got some quality then, Cunego and Gilbert wil be replaced by Roson and Rodriguez. You got a decent Spanish core in my eyes, and Roson is one nice step to build on.
sammyt93 wrote:
Croatia, I'm struggling to see what the 2 named riders are there for, I thought maybe it would be the highest scorers but our season will go really wrong if Chavanne out scores Salleh. As they are both maxed already I don't think it is based on their future strength either so can't work out what it is.
I am hoping to be a little bit higher than you predicted as I feel like we added enough to move up more than one place in the rankings compared to last season.
In general it should be the two most promising scorer, and in your case that could in my eyes very well happen. Chavanne is the best prologue rider of both CT & PCT, so if carefully planned he can score you loads of leaders points. Certainly he is one of the most interesting of your leaders though. On top, Salleh is a very sketchy leader (flat, hill), and I have the feeling that Chavanne especially as a leadout my outsprint him quite often. So, I'd say, if Chavanne is planned very carefully on early prologues he can really score you big points (stage results & leaders jerseys [especially youth])
.
And nice work Vien, not sure about Repsol though (even if Valls gets 500 I don't see the rest making another 900 to get 6th).
