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PCM.daily Stats Discussion
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 13-09-2017 11:35
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I thinnk the same. In my opinion Porte with 81 its perfect |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 13-09-2017 13:54
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This Porte discussion is becoming pointless and he will be 82 in the DB, we can't just downgrade a rider because he crashed in the race that was his main aim for the season, he will next be assessed next season and there is always the possibility after such a bad crash that he may not come back to his 2017 form so we will have to wait and see.
What needs to be considered is that some of his main rivals like Froome and Bardet have the Tour in their fav race list making them more likely to be on better pre-race form and daily form throughout the Tour plus their higher recovery and in the case of Froome a better team. All this has a marked effect on a how a rider might perform.
So let's move on and discuss other riders and anybody that wants Porte at 81 can change him manually in their DB.
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 13-09-2017 14:01
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I completely agree, but wasn't Boonen downgraded, back when he crashed out of the cobbled season, because the statmakers assumed, that he wouldn't have had it in him.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 13-09-2017 14:10
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I don't remember exactly the situation with Boonen' but I do remember that his downgrade after a crash was linked into the fact that he hadn't done that well prior (previous season) on cobbles and was clearly past his best and getting older.
Also I don't think we can compare stage race riders with cobble men in this case either. Stage riders are assessed over the season whilst Cobble men in terms of their cobble stats are only really judged over a period of a few months and if they don't get it right then they are more likely to face a downgrade.
Classic example is Vanmarcke this season, illness and crashing and his inability to take a big cobble classic finally saw him being dropped in cobble by a point (despite the fact that some on the stats team think him the best cobbler when on form) so we have to make a decidion over a very short period and that would've been the case with Boonen as well.
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 13-09-2017 15:11
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4394
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Tafiolmo wrote:
I don't remember exactly the situation with Boonen' but I do remember that his downgrade after a crash was linked into the fact that he hadn't done that well prior (previous season) on cobbles and was clearly past his best and getting older.
Also I don't think we can compare stage race riders with cobble men in this case either. Stage riders are assessed over the season whilst Cobble men in terms of their cobble stats are only really judged over a period of a few months and if they don't get it right then they are more likely to face a downgrade.
Classic example is Vanmarcke this season, illness and crashing and his inability to take a big cobble classic finally saw him being dropped in cobble by a point (despite the fact that some on the stats team think him the best cobbler when on form) so we have to make a decidion over a very short period and that would've been the case with Boonen as well.
Well, but afaik, the problem for me back then was, that Boonen got a downgrade, despite not even racing the classics season and Vanmarcke, even after poor performances, was not downgraded. But like I said, I agree with you entirely. Porte needs to stay on 82 MO.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 13-09-2017 15:19
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
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Paul23 wrote:
Tafiolmo wrote:
I don't remember exactly the situation with Boonen' but I do remember that his downgrade after a crash was linked into the fact that he hadn't done that well prior (previous season) on cobbles and was clearly past his best and getting older.
Also I don't think we can compare stage race riders with cobble men in this case either. Stage riders are assessed over the season whilst Cobble men in terms of their cobble stats are only really judged over a period of a few months and if they don't get it right then they are more likely to face a downgrade.
Classic example is Vanmarcke this season, illness and crashing and his inability to take a big cobble classic finally saw him being dropped in cobble by a point (despite the fact that some on the stats team think him the best cobbler when on form) so we have to make a decidion over a very short period and that would've been the case with Boonen as well.
Well, but afaik, the problem for me back then was, that Boonen got a downgrade, despite not even racing the classics season and Vanmarcke, even after poor performances, was not downgraded. But like I said, I agree with you entirely. Porte needs to stay on 82 MO.
A better way sum up these decisions is that on the one hand we have a kind of group agreement that if rides are ill or crash and they are out for a short period they don't get a downgrade but if for a longer period then yes. But often it can sometimes just come down to a gut feeling about who should remain the same or go down in this instance and each statmaker will think differently when doing so. In fact the most subjective topic at the moment for the statmakers is the use of favourite race now that we can confirm that it has a significant effect on gameplay and which riders should have which races etc.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 13-09-2017 17:34
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| aldrofj |
Posted on 17-09-2017 10:59
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With the end of the season come the traditional asian races.
These races offer every year a lot of surprises, and this is quite difficult to notice all of them.
The Tour of China I has ended today, and here are the main .HC and .1 upcoming races :
-  Tour of China II (19/09 - 24/09)
-  Tour of Almaty (30/09 - 01/10)
-  Tour of Iran (08/10 - 13/10)
-  Japan Cup Cycle Road Race (22/10)
- Tour of Hainan (28/10 - 05/11)
- Tour of Taihu Lake (04/11 - 12/11)
Also some .2 races :
-  → Tour de Molvccas (18/09 - 22/09), International Tour de Banyuwangi Ijen (27/09 - 30/09) and Tour de Singkarak (18/11 - 26/11)
-  → Jelajah Malaysia (03/10 - 07/10) and Tour de Selangor (17/10 - 21/10)
- → Tour of Yancheng Costal Wetlands (01/11)
If you follow a bit these races, feel free to share some suggestions. I could also give you the notes of the concerned riders. I already made some changes about the Tour of China I's first stages.
Spoiler For the Tour of China I, I've mainly updated the sprint notes of Pacioni, Nikitin, de Maar and Meyer. I've also upgraded a bit Bertazzo and Papok. I'll now have a look on the ITT.
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| Aposticot |
Posted on 21-09-2017 17:44
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May I ask when the deadline is? I mean, before the DB is considered done. After Worlds I guess?
talking about Worlds, Dumoulin won the time trial so hard. shouldn't he be at 81 in the DB and Martin have his stats decreased since he won nothing this year? feels like age is catching the german rider.
Still about Dumoulin and his Giro performance, shouldn't he have 80 in MO (he was quite strong during the first 2 weeks), and less in REC (minus 1 or 2)? I mean, he struggled a lot in the last week (Quintana was 2min41 behind, Nibali 3min40, and before the last time trial Dumoulin was behind 53sec and 14 seconds)
You guys are probably better than me, so I don't know if my reasoning is correct or not. |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 21-09-2017 21:03
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
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Aposticot wrote:
May I ask when the deadline is? I mean, before the DB is considered done. After Worlds I guess?
talking about Worlds, Dumoulin won the time trial so hard. shouldn't he be at 81 in the DB and Martin have his stats decreased since he won nothing this year? feels like age is catching the german rider.
Still about Dumoulin and his Giro performance, shouldn't he have 80 in MO (he was quite strong during the first 2 weeks), and less in REC (minus 1 or 2)? I mean, he struggled a lot in the last week (Quintana was 2min41 behind, Nibali 3min40, and before the last time trial Dumoulin was behind 53sec and 14 seconds)
You guys are probably better than me, so I don't know if my reasoning is correct or not.
These are actually two very good points that are actually on my mind over the last few days.
Martin Yes agree that age is catching up here and the old he's much better over longer TT's than shorter ones largely made sure we kept him the best TT rider with weaker prologue stats. So I would say it's either a case of lowering his TT or raising Dumoulin. and keeping Martin as he is until next season.
Dumoulin Now clearly both a GT rider and a TT specialist. The problem with GT riders is that they ride TT's better than their stats would suggest which is why there has been a recent trend to lower them and raise those of specialists and their recs so they can try and win a TT in the 3rd week like Van Emden at Giro. Tom at 79 mtn is currently being tested by me in the Giro to see how he does against the 81 and 82 mtn riders. Tom has a huige res stat which fits his style to ride a steady tempo for a long time and in my first testing he finished behind riders like Pinot and Nibali by about a minute but he never actually cracked and rode a steady rhythm. The aim will be to see if he loses too much time at being a 79 in the mtn stages and if he does so then 80 may well be better but bear in mind in the TT he should destroy all the others. We can also mess around with his rec as well. fe if he were an 80 mtn the lower rec would be good but if at 79 higher rec would be better
The world's TT was a very atypical course and not a good one for stats. a technical flat section and a hard climb and for that reason I didn't really do that many changes other than raising a few stats on riders like Oliveira and Tratnik for example.
Also I'm sure that the DB won't be out until after the WC RR
Edited by Tafiolmo on 21-09-2017 21:09
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 22:52
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| Jorge14 |
Posted on 22-09-2017 08:16
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Stagiare
Posts: 184
Joined: 15-03-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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aldrofj wrote:
With the end of the season come the traditional asian races.
These races offer every year a lot of surprises, and this is quite difficult to notice all of them.
The Tour of China I has ended today, and here are the main .HC and .1 upcoming races :
- Tour of China II (19/09 - 24/09)
- Tour of Almaty (30/09 - 01/10)
- Tour of Iran (08/10 - 13/10)
- Japan Cup Cycle Road Race (22/10)
- Tour of Hainan (28/10 - 05/11)
- Tour of Taihu Lake (04/11 - 12/11)
Also some .2 races :
- → Tour de Molvccas (18/09 - 22/09), International Tour de Banyuwangi Ijen (27/09 - 30/09) and Tour de Singkarak (18/11 - 26/11)
- → Jelajah Malaysia (03/10 - 07/10) and Tour de Selangor (17/10 - 21/10)
- → Tour of Yancheng Costal Wetlands (01/11)
If you follow a bit these races, feel free to share some suggestions. I could also give you the notes of the concerned riders. I already made some changes about the Tour of China I's first stages.
Spoiler For the Tour of China I, I've mainly updated the sprint notes of Pacioni, Nikitin, de Maar and Meyer. I've also upgraded a bit Bertazzo and Papok. I'll now have a look on the ITT.
Kevin Rivera and Mirko Trosino need both a update. Good performance on Stage 1 of Tour China II |
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| RF1993 |
Posted on 22-09-2017 17:34
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Amateur
Posts: 11
Joined: 31-03-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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I have to admit that i didn't take the time to look back on all of the replies before so some of them migth be named allready but i'll name a few (young) riders that i think might need an update or at least need to be looked at because of recent results. It's up to you what to do with them, i'm not going to say how high the stat's need to be so that i won't start a pointless discussion over someone being given 73 of 74 (just to name something).
Lennard Kämna (strong vuelta ITT & worlds TTT)
Amund Grondahl Jansen (some good results in belgian one day races)
Rasmus Tilller (i believe he is norwegian NC, still young and talented. Also strong in U23 road race today)
Lawrence Naesen (strong in belgian one day races throughout the whole season)
Pavel Sivakov (one of the best in U23 this year, at least uphill)
Sam Oomen (i think he deserves a little update on his climbing after vuelta) |
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| aldrofj |
Posted on 24-09-2017 13:55
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Free Agent
Posts: 139
Joined: 14-07-2017
PCM$: 300.00
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Jorge14 wrote:
aldrofj wrote:
With the end of the season come the traditional asian races.
These races offer every year a lot of surprises, and this is quite difficult to notice all of them.
The Tour of China I has ended today, and here are the main .HC and .1 upcoming races :
- Tour of China II (19/09 - 24/09)
- Tour of Almaty (30/09 - 01/10)
- Tour of Iran (08/10 - 13/10)
- Japan Cup Cycle Road Race (22/10)
- Tour of Hainan (28/10 - 05/11)
- Tour of Taihu Lake (04/11 - 12/11)
Also some .2 races :
- → Tour de Molvccas (18/09 - 22/09), International Tour de Banyuwangi Ijen (27/09 - 30/09) and Tour de Singkarak (18/11 - 26/11)
- → Jelajah Malaysia (03/10 - 07/10) and Tour de Selangor (17/10 - 21/10)
- → Tour of Yancheng Costal Wetlands (01/11)
If you follow a bit these races, feel free to share some suggestions. I could also give you the notes of the concerned riders. I already made some changes about the Tour of China I's first stages.
Spoiler For the Tour of China I, I've mainly updated the sprint notes of Pacioni, Nikitin, de Maar and Meyer. I've also upgraded a bit Bertazzo and Papok. I'll now have a look on the ITT.
Kevin Rivera and Mirko Trosino need both a update. Good performance on Stage 1 of Tour China II
Done. They have 68 HIL now (Trosino already had 67 HIL, but was convincing at the Tour of China I), greater secondary notes and the Tour of China II as a fav race.
Their performance was really impressive, but this performance is also their first, so 68 seems to be enough, especially with the fav race factor.
I also made some updates, especially with Maris Bogdanovics who deserves 72 SP/72 ACC after his great season, a regular sprinter of the Continental's scene, and Malucelli who has now 73 SP/73 ACC after his satisfying season too.
I also put the Tour of China II as a fave race for Benfatto (still stronger than the others), Bogdanovics, Bonusi and Spreafico.
Edited by aldrofj on 24-09-2017 22:45
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 24-09-2017 16:04
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Posts: 1187
Joined: 13-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Any changes after WC??? |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 24-09-2017 16:07
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4190
Joined: 13-09-2015
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I would see logical an increase in Kristoff's STA. He always does well when races are +250 km, and in shorter stages he lacks the top speed to win
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 25-09-2017 12:07
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Aquarius97 wrote:
I would see logical an increase in Kristoff's STA. He always does well when races are +250 km, and in shorter stages he lacks the top speed to win
In fact his STA is not as good as it used to be, as before he would actually win races over really long distances as well as well as shorter ones. Now he really does no more than just compete. His current 79 sta which is still high, is one of the best in the game.
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| jeremyrobin |
Posted on 29-09-2017 15:53
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Under 23
Posts: 59
Joined: 29-09-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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Can you add please
https://www.procyc...?id=182488
https://www.procyc...?id=184427
https://www.procyc...?id=212377
https://www.procyc...?id=197080
https://www.procyc...?id=202644
https://www.procyc...?id=202642
https://www.procyc...?id=201760
https://www.procyc...?id=202338
https://www.procyc...?id=192279 |
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 07-10-2017 17:38
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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NIBALI
FLA 73 (+1) one point better than Porte and Urà n is enough...
HIL 79 (+1) i remember he was already 79 HIL and i don't think it would be too much. He actually deserves it (like Chaves after winning Lombardia 2016)
ACC 74/75 (+1/+2) as you can see when he's in good condition he can blow other riders. It would be still less than most of other GC contenders.
DHI 83 (+1) Back at his previous value, nothing more. When he has to force, he does. He's just the best descender after Salvoldelli.
STA 79 (+1) This is the value i always suggested for him, even after Giro 2017, i just advice it again.
PINOT
STA 77 (+1)
DHI 69/70 (+2/+3) |
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| aldrofj |
Posted on 07-10-2017 18:53
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Free Agent
Posts: 139
Joined: 14-07-2017
PCM$: 300.00
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marcoplv95 wrote:
NIBALI
FLA 73 (+1) one point better than Porte and Urà n is enough...
HIL 79 (+1) i remember he was already 79 HIL and i don't think it would be too much. He actually deserves it (like Chaves after winning Lombardia 2016)
ACC 74/75 (+1/+2) as you can see when he's in good condition he can blow other riders. It would be still less than most of other GC contenders.
DHI 83 (+1) Back at his previous value, nothing more. When he has to force, he does. He's just the best descender after Salvoldelli.
STA 79 (+1) This is the value i always suggested for him, even after Giro 2017, i just advice it again.
PINOT
STA 77 (+1)
DHI 69/70 (+2/+3)
Insightful suggestions. Nibali has currently 71 FL and 77 HIL, 74 ACC, 82 DH and 78 STA.
I agree with 73 FL, 75 ACC and 83 DH. 79 STA seems to be too much compared to the other GT riders, who have around 75-76. With 78, he has the same level as riders like Fuglsang or Poels who are more designated for small tours or classics. Valverde has 79 STA.
79 HIL is also too much for him, he has been reduced to 77 for his Vuelta, unable to follow Froome and Chaves (78 and 79 HIL) on hilly stages, especially on Cumbre del Sol. He could have 78 VAL, but not 79.
Pinot has 76 STA and 67 DH. 76 STA is enough in my opinion, with Aru at 76, Quintana at 75 and Pozzovivo at 74. For DH, 67 is too low. Pinot is correct in this exercise, and he deserves at least 69.
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| Forever the Best |
Posted on 07-10-2017 19:02
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3785
Joined: 27-06-2014
PCM$: 400.00
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aldrofj wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
NIBALI
FLA 73 (+1) one point better than Porte and Urà n is enough...
HIL 79 (+1) i remember he was already 79 HIL and i don't think it would be too much. He actually deserves it (like Chaves after winning Lombardia 2016)
ACC 74/75 (+1/+2) as you can see when he's in good condition he can blow other riders. It would be still less than most of other GC contenders.
DHI 83 (+1) Back at his previous value, nothing more. When he has to force, he does. He's just the best descender after Salvoldelli.
STA 79 (+1) This is the value i always suggested for him, even after Giro 2017, i just advice it again.
PINOT
STA 77 (+1)
DHI 69/70 (+2/+3)
Insightful suggestions. Nibali has currently 71 FL and 77 HIL, 74 ACC, 82 DH and 78 STA.
I agree with 73 FL, 75 ACC and 83 DH. 79 STA seems to be too much compared to the other GT riders, who have around 75-76. With 78, he has the same level as riders like Fuglsang or Poels who are more designated for small tours or classics. Valverde has 79 STA.
79 HIL is also too much for him, he has been reduced to 77 for his Vuelta, unable to follow Froome and Chaves (78 and 79 HIL) on hilly stages, especially on Cumbre del Sol. He could have 78 VAL, but not 79.
Pinot has 76 STA and 67 DH. 76 STA is enough in my opinion, with Aru at 76, Quintana at 75 and Pozzovivo at 74. For DH, 67 is too low. Pinot is correct in this exercise, and he deserves at least 69. It has been proven many times that Nibali is awesome in 200+ km one-day races. MSR '12, LBL '12, WCRR '13, Lombardia '15, OGRR '16, Lombardia '17. He was also very good in MSR '11.
The user formerly known as 'The Schleck Fan'
Gracias Alberto.
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 07-10-2017 19:39
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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@aldrofj: How are your stars differents from mine?
i downloaded latest db from the first post (V1.1) and Nibali has the stats i wrote. |
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