Here's first of all a look at the Final Results compared to the Average Predicted Results (APR), along with the Highest (HPP) and Lowest Predicted Position (LPP).
Final
Team
APR
Diff
HPP
LPP
1
Team I-Gen - Festina
2
1
1
4
2
Becherovka - Petrof
1
-1
1
5
3
Vesuvio - Accumalux
4
1
2
5
4
Aker-MOT
5
1
3
6
5
Aegon - Lavazza
12
7
8
18
6
Team Puma - SAP
13
7
9
14
7
Evonik - ELKO
16
9
12
17
8
Tinkoff Sport Academy
6
-2
1
18
9
eBuddy
14
5
9
19
10
Metinvest-Dacia
3
-7
1
7
11
BPost-Vlaanderen
17
6
7
21
12
Pendleton's
8
-4
7
15
13
Bouygues Telecom
15
2
7
18
14
Jayco'z Cycling Project
9
-5
6
17
15
Gazelle
11
-4
7
19
16
RBC Pro Cycling
21
5
16
21
17
Pokerstars.com
10
-7
9
15
18
Movistar - US Postal
18
0
11
21
19
Orange - KLM Cycling
7
-12
4
16
20
Red Bull - Huawei
19
-1
11
20
21
Kenya Airways - Dimension Data
20
-1
10
21
22
Grieg-Eftel
22
0
22
22
Below, however, you can find a perhaps more interesting look at how off every prediction was with regard to each team.
MARSUPILAMI
Total Score: 151/253; 102 Positions Off; 60% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Team I-Gen - Festina
1
0
2
Vesuvio - Accumalux
3
1
3
Metinvest-Dacia
10
7
4
Orange - KLM Cycling
19
15
5
Becherovka - Petrof
2
3
6
Aker-MOT
4
2
7
Gazelle
15
8
8
Jayco'z Cycling Project
14
6
9
Team Puma - SAP
6
3
10
Aegon - Lavazza
5
5
11
Red Bull - Huawei
20
9
12
Pokerstars.com
17
5
13
Bouygues Telecom
13
0
14
Pendleton's
12
2
15
eBuddy
9
6
16
BPost-Vlaanderen
11
5
17
Evonik - ELKO
7
10
18
Tinkoff Sport Academy
8
10
19
RBC Pro Cycling
16
3
20
Movistar - US Postal
18
2
21
Kenya Airways - Dimension Data
21
0
22
Grieg-Eftel
22
0
jph27
Total Score: 173/253; 80 Positions Off; 68% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Becherovka - Petrof
2
1
2
Team I-Gen - Festina
1
1
3
Vesuvio - Accumalux
3
0
4
Aker-MOT
4
0
5
Metinvest-Dacia
10
5
6
Orange - KLM Cycling
19
13
7
BPost-Vlaanderen
11
4
8
Pendleton's
12
4
9
eBuddy
9
0
10
Gazelle
15
5
11
Team Puma - SAP
6
5
12
Pokerstars.com
17
5
13
Jayco'z Cycling Project
14
1
14
Tinkoff Sport Academy
8
6
15
Bouygues Telecom
13
2
16
Evonik - ELKO
7
9
17
Movistar - US Postal
18
1
18
Aegon - Lavazza
5
13
19
Red Bull - Huawei
20
1
20
RBC Pro Cycling
16
4
21
Kenya Airways - Dimension Data
21
0
22
Grieg-Eftel
22
0
tastasol
Total Score: 191/253; 62 Positions Off; 75% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Becherovka - Petrof
2
1
2
Team I-Gen - Festina
1
1
3
Metinvest-Dacia
10
7
4
Vesuvio - Accumalux
3
1
5
Aker-MOT
4
1
6
Tinkoff Sport Academy
8
2
7
Bouygues Telecom
13
6
8
Pendleton's
12
4
9
eBuddy
9
0
10
Aegon - Lavazza
5
5
11
Gazelle
15
4
12
BPost-Vlaanderen
11
1
13
Evonik - ELKO
7
6
14
Team Puma - SAP
6
8
15
Pokerstars.com
17
2
16
Orange - KLM Cycling
19
3
17
Jayco'z Cycling Project
14
3
18
RBC Pro Cycling
16
2
19
Kenya Airways - Dimension Data
21
2
20
Red Bull - Huawei
20
0
21
Movistar - US Postal
18
3
22
Grieg-Eftel
22
0
matt17br
Total Score: 173/253; 80 Positions Off; 68% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Team I-Gen - Festina
1
0
2
Becherovka - Petrof
2
0
3
Metinvest-Dacia
10
7
4
Vesuvio - Accumalux
3
1
5
Aker-MOT
4
1
6
Jayco'z Cycling Project
14
8
7
Pendleton's
12
5
8
Tinkoff Sport Academy
8
0
9
Aegon - Lavazza
5
4
10
Pokerstars.com
17
7
11
Orange - KLM Cycling
19
8
12
Bouygues Telecom
13
1
13
Team Puma - SAP
6
7
14
Evonik - ELKO
7
7
15
Gazelle
15
0
16
BPost-Vlaanderen
11
5
17
Kenya Airways - Dimension Data
21
4
18
Movistar - US Postal
18
0
19
eBuddy
9
10
20
Red Bull - Huawei
20
0
21
RBC Pro Cycling
16
5
22
Grieg-Eftel
22
0
SotD
Total Score: 151/253; 102 Positions Off; 60% Accuracy
Spoiler
Pred
Team
Final
Difference
1
Tinkoff Sport Academy
8
7
2
Becherovka - Petrof
2
0
3
Aker-MOT
4
1
4
Team I-Gen - Festina
1
3
5
Vesuvio - Accumalux
3
2
6
Jayco'z Cycling Project
14
8
7
Metinvest-Dacia
10
3
8
Gazelle
15
7
9
Pokerstars.com
17
8
10
Orange - KLM Cycling
19
9
11
Movistar - US Postal
18
7
12
eBuddy
9
3
13
Bouygues Telecom
13
0
14
Team Puma - SAP
6
8
15
Pendleton's
12
3
16
Evonik - ELKO
7
9
17
Aegon - Lavazza
5
12
18
RBC Pro Cycling
16
2
19
Red Bull - Huawei
20
1
20
BPost-Vlaanderen
11
9
21
Kenya Airways - Dimension Data
21
0
22
Grieg-Eftel
22
0
Smowz
Total Score: 159/253; 94 Positions Off; 63% Accuracy
This is actually quite interesting. The top 2 was pretty clear in terms of predicition, but the tio 5 were all predicted to finish much lower than they did.
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
The message is loud and clear, like we have seen during whole year.
Aegon, Puma and especially Evonik overperformed massively, while Metinvest, Jaycoz and Orange underperformed.
I blame breakaway luck and HC races.
You probably shouldn't.
I believe that both Metinvest, Orange and Jayco'z had better breakaway luck than Evonik.
Out of the 6 teams, Jayco'z was the 2nd best HC team, but other than Puma the rest performed within 125 points of eachother - And then there's your team that didn't perform there at all.
Aegon and Puma both had their share of good luck through some random results. Probably Aegon more than Puma though, winning several KOM points throughout the season. So deducting the HC points, this would be the result:
Spoiler
1
Team I-Gen - Festina
8192
2
Becherovka - Petrof
6614
3
Vesuvio - Accumalux
6522
4
Aegon - Lavazza
6278
5
Tinkoff Sport Academy
6135
6
Aker - MOT
6105
7
Evonik - ELKO
6089
8
eBuddy
6003
9
Metinvest-Dacia
5986
10
Team Puma - SAP
5827
11
Pendleton's
5578
12
Bouygues Telecom
5548
13
Bpost - Vlaanderen
5547
14
Gazelle
5291
15
Pokerstars.com
5228
16
Jayco'z Cycling Project
5181
17
RBC Pro Cycling
5087
18
Movistar - US Postal
5070
19
Orange - KLM Cycling
4787
20
Red Bull - Huawei
4518
21
Kenya Airways - Dimension Data
4375
22
Grieg - Eftel
3884
So not a lot would have changed. Still the same 5 teams relegating. Jayco'z would have been even worse, while only your team would have been better - By one spot. Aegon would have been even higher, while Puma would have dropped 4 spots. Evonik stayed the same.
The only teams that really gained anything from the HC races are Aker (from 6th to 4th), Puma (from 10th to 6th) and BPost (from 13th to 11th).
What is interesting though is that it is clear where the HC points came from...
Band 2 Average: 148 pr. team (7 teams)
Band 3 Average: 53 pr. team (2 teams)
Band 4 Average: 39 pr. team (1 team)
Band 6 Average: 202 pr. team (12 teams)
So it isn't very difficult to see what band you should go for if you want easy points. Happy that will change for the next season...
tsmoha wrote:
I blame Morton, Durbridge and Burghardt
Morton definately should have done better. Lecuisinier and Wellens almost scored double of him. He should have scored around 800-1000 like Sicard, Nibali and Guldhammer.
Burghardt was the best of the pure cobblers, so despite him not doing that well I don't think a lot more could have been expected. He scored 100 points more than Senechal, 200 points more than Blythe and 250 points more than Vanspeybrouck.
Luke Durbridge was the best of all pure timetriallists. He was only beaten by the likes of Jerome Coppel and Mikhail Ignatiev, and even outscored Panagiotis Vlatos who I believe massively overperformed. He scored 100 points more than Zmorka and 200 points more than Kittel. So he definately wasn't the problem
Even Matthew Goss delivered around what was expected. So if any fingers should be pointed I feel like it should be at riders like Lahcen Saber, Evert Verbist and maybe Ford. Verbist could have scored a bit more in the cobbles while Saber should have done more in both PT and HC races. He should IMO have been around 3-400 points.
Nice analysis SotD, but i dont agree we had some breakaway luck, we have not hold single KOM jersey during whole year and won one stage from the break with Hacecky near the end of the year. Our 74-77 guys that should be ideal for these things did absolutely nothing whole year.
Or where do you see problems that we were most "overhyped team" o the predictions, was it really just hype? And dont tell me Pluchkin, that guy scored 2000 points, you cant really expect more. (last year was one of a lifetime season).
tsmoha wrote:
I blame Morton, Durbridge and Burghardt
Morton definately should have done better. Lecuisinier and Wellens almost scored double of him. He should have scored around 800-1000 like Sicard, Nibali and Guldhammer.
Burghardt was the best of the pure cobblers, so despite him not doing that well I don't think a lot more could have been expected. He scored 100 points more than Senechal, 200 points more than Blythe and 250 points more than Vanspeybrouck.
Luke Durbridge was the best of all pure timetriallists. He was only beaten by the likes of Jerome Coppel and Mikhail Ignatiev, and even outscored Panagiotis Vlatos who I believe massively overperformed. He scored 100 points more than Zmorka and 200 points more than Kittel. So he definately wasn't the problem
Even Matthew Goss delivered around what was expected. So if any fingers should be pointed I feel like it should be at riders like Lahcen Saber, Evert Verbist and maybe Ford. Verbist could have scored a bit more in the cobbles while Saber should have done more in both PT and HC races. He should IMO have been around 3-400 points.
But Durbridge failed in some key races, where he could have scored even more points
Anyway, Morton's Vuelta obviously hurt our overall scoring big time. Bad luck, things like that happen. Saber, yes. Had hoped for a few better results here. Especially in HC races, yes.
Burghardt did somehow okay, as he hadn't too many off-days. Still no big results except of one podium. I know he was never going to beat the two beasts, but 100-200pts more should have been possible.
In general, I think it was always realistic that we finish somewhere between 9-15, so obviously it went Aachen expected in a way. If Morton had have a result in the Vuelta, we had been on par with my expectations, I guess.
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Nice analysis SotD, but i dont agree we had some breakaway luck, we have not hold single KOM jersey during whole year and won one stage from the break with Hacecky near the end of the year. Our 74-77 guys that should be ideal for these things did absolutely nothing whole year.
Or where do you see problems that we were most "overhyped team" o the predictions, was it really just hype? And dont tell me Pluchkin, that guy scored 2000 points, you cant really expect more. (last year was one of a lifetime season).
I think you scored atleast an equal amount of points from breakaways as Evonik did, that was my point.
Your main problem was Zmorka and Ignatiev as I see it. Zmorka obviously should have scored atleast similar as Vlatos and Durbridge, and probably 50-100 points more also.
Let's add 150 points there.
Last season Ignatiev scored 1100 points, this season he scored 700. I believe 1100 might be a great season for Ignatiev, because if we look back to 2014 he scored around 500 points only. But I believe many people (myself included) expected him to be around 1000 points.
If we add 450 points in total to your team then you would have been 5th. So I don't think there's much point in over analyzing the difference between your actual ranking and the predicted ones.
But Durbridge failed in some key races, where he could have scored even more points
Anyway, Morton's Vuelta obviously hurt our overall scoring big time. Bad luck, things like that happen. Saber, yes. Had hoped for a few better results here. Especially in HC races, yes.
Burghardt did somehow okay, as he hadn't too many off-days. Still no big results except of one podium. I know he was never going to beat the two beasts, but 100-200pts more should have been possible.
In general, I think it was always realistic that we finish somewhere between 9-15, so obviously it went Aachen expected in a way. If Morton had have a result in the Vuelta, we had been on par with my expectations, I guess.
True, Durbridge could have scored even more points. But so could most other timetriallist with 80-83 In general terms he didn't underperform.
Indeed, Morton's Vuelta was a key moment of bad luck. He could have easily scored 250-400 extra points from that race.
Burghardt could also have scored more, true. But looking back this is probably around his level. He scored 730 points in 2015 and 925 in 2014, where as he managed 801 this season. So atleast that is still somewhat consistent. I agree with Avin that the addition of Greg van Avermaet might have been the difference between him scoring 801 and 925 points, but the 2015 season begs to differ...
No matter what, those "lost" points would have done little in terms of the final ranking. Maybe one or two spots up. But then again, some of the teams above have been equally unlucky.
I believe that I am one of only 3 teams that have (over)performed almost entirely throughout. Evonik and Aegon are the other two. Despite training Skujins and van Stayen it was never expected that they would end up scoring 700 points more than they did the season before, and for Aegon it wasn't exactly a given that Martijn Keizer would score 400 points more than last time he was riding the PT, while also Lars Boom scored 250 points more. Just like for me, it is very difficult to look at a rider from either Evonik or Aegon and say, he should have definately scored higher. Even Ben Swift, who people seem to think underperformed actually scored around the same average as for the two previous seasons (1600 and 1200). And some might say that he is stronger now - and he is - but in relation to the competition I think it's about the same. And then obviously Vesuvios train last season with van der Lijke, Harrison and Merino Criado was stronger than the train that often followed Swift this season: Sbaragli, van der Sanden and Berger - Gronewegen often rode his own chances/races.
Next season I wouldn't be surprised to see Swift winning a lot again, if his train is formed well enough - and it should be, even without Groenewegen.
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
The message is loud and clear, like we have seen during whole year.
Aegon, Puma and especially Evonik overperformed massively, while Metinvest, Jaycoz and Orange underperformed.
I blame breakaway luck and HC races.
Did we really "overperform" or did everyone just "underrate" us? Those are two inherently different things.
Yes, if you want, you can say we got lucky with Kelderman in Flèche, Arndt in the TdF and Herklotz in Portugal. (from the top of my head, I'm on my phone)
In my opinion though, after a season in which an 82 puncheur won ALL Ardennes races, I think the first one isn't too far-fetched.
79 mo riders getting a lot of points out of GTs isn't news, and usually it's through KoM and stage win points which we both didn't get (and would've been worth much more).
And Herklotz has amazingly balanced stats which everyone is and has been aware of since forever, and all he did was beat an 80 mo rider with horrible acceleration and some lower riders thanks to Portugal being very long and unreliable and therefore rather unpopular among PCT teams.
On the other hand, we barely got into any breakaways at all this season, which continuously saw us losing points to teams around us who did and won KoM jerseys or stages. (if I feel like it, I'll count together how many breakaway appearances every team had this season)
We had a shitty Ciolek scoring much less than anticipated, and who sometimes affected Demare's chances when they rode together and the AI didn't give both an equal chance.
Felline did basically nothing in PT despite his decent stat combination.
Bongiorno constantly missed splits or came in 40th and rode passive the other times.
I could continue, but I hope you see and understand my point.
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
The message is loud and clear, like we have seen during whole year.
Aegon, Puma and especially Evonik overperformed massively, while Metinvest, Jaycoz and Orange underperformed.
I blame breakaway luck and HC races.
Did we really "overperform" or did everyone just "underrate" us? Those are two inherently different things.
Yes, if you want, you can say we got lucky with Kelderman in Flèche, Arndt in the TdF and Herklotz in Portugal. (from the top of my head, I'm on my phone)
In my opinion though, after a season in which an 82 puncheur won ALL Ardennes races, I think the first one isn't too far-fetched.
79 mo riders getting a lot of points out of GTs isn't news, and usually it's through KoM and stage win points which we both didn't get (and would've been worth much more).
And Herklotz has amazingly balanced stats which everyone is and has been aware of since forever, and all he did was beat an 80 mo rider with horrible acceleration and some lower riders thanks to Portugal being very long and unreliable and therefore rather unpopular among PCT teams.
On the other hand, we barely got into any breakaways at all this season, which continuously saw us losing points to teams around us who did and won KoM jerseys or stages. (if I feel like it, I'll count together how many breakaway appearances every team had this season)
We had a shitty Ciolek scoring much less than anticipated, and who sometimes affected Demare's chances when they rode together and the AI didn't give both an equal chance.
Felline did basically nothing in PT despite his decent stat combination.
Bongiorno constantly missed splits or came in 40th and rode passive the other times.
I could continue, but I hope you see and understand my point.
You did overperform IMO. Several of your riders performed better than the average of similar riders. You have a great base of depth, much like I do, and could have scored even better than you did. But I also overperformed...
Wilco Kelderman performed up to level with Jack Bobdridge and better than riders like Skujins, Ginanni, Sagan and Gastauer whom I all value either better or on a similar level, when looking at all stats, and previous seasons results. He might have scored 2-300 points more than I would have had him on.
Nikias Arndt outperformed riders like Lachlan Morton, Jurgen van den Broeck, Gianluca Brambilla, David Abal, Mattia Cattaneo, Leopold König, Nico Keinath and better riders with other statcombinations like Sean De Bie, Dimitriy Claeys etc. For him to finish around 50th would need some serious luck if you ask me. He also scored around 200 points more than I would have valued him at.
Silvio Herklotz is nothing more than a good support rider with his current stats, and you have to agree that winning a HC race was pure luck. Not only because he wasn't the strongest pre-race favorite, but also because all of the PCT teams had decided not to go there. That cannot come down to anything more than luck. On a normal season he would score around 175-225 points like Stake Laengen, Karnulin, Novak, Formolo, Aru, Vasyliv, Campero. The fact that he outscored Merhawi Kudus (who was also a leader in most his races) by 300 points say it all too well imo.
Jasha Sütterlin is one of those random 80TT stat riders, that we always have some of in the PT. Usually they score around 150-200 points. Much like Anton Vorobev, Marcel Kittel, Michael Ford, Michael Hepburn etc. But he didn't. He outscored Zmorka by 50 points and secured the team 335 points. Around 150-200 more than could have been anticipated.
Fabio Felline, whom you might think have a good stat combination, isn't really much more than many other puncheurs in the division. He might be a strong finisher, but 77 HI is shared 38th, and some of those are having some other stat combos that should outscore him, like Izagirre, Tsatevich, Phinney, Guldhammer, Kangert and so on. Despite of that he scored 324 points easily beating riders like Monfort, Hoelgaard, van der Lijke, Boswell, Boily and Pichon, Tsatevich, Zakarin and even Izagirre - even beating surprised Classic Winner Sven Fritsch. IMO he scored 100-150 points higher than what I would have estimated.
Riders like Arnaud Demare, Dominique Nerz, Francesco Bongiorno, Maxime Daniel and the helpers all performed, I think, around what you could expect at this level. They could have done slightly better, or slightly worse, but in general are around the level of similar riders also taking into account that riders like Daniel and Bongiorno rarely was the main captain of the team, while Demare IMO was not planned well enough for him to score higher.
Then a few underperformed a bit IMO. Adam Blythe should have scored 100 points more, while Ciolek should have scored 200 more, which would have left him around Kristoff (+ Kristoffs cobbled points), but a bit after riders like Guarnier, Cavendish and an overperforming Kennaugh.
So IMO you end up scoring something like 500-900 points more than your team should have done. Deducting 500 points would have put you in 11th while deducting 900 points would have put you in 13th. Which is basically where people estimated you - Myself included.
So when you end up much much higher, it is IMO a question of you doing a very good job putting together your raceplanner, combined with quite a bit of luck. Pretty much what I also tell myself when I look at my own team.
