It's been a fantastic season, and the new sponsors next season should lead to a very nice looking jersey! With two airlines onboard, let hope you don't wing it next year...
Great composition of sponsors once again already, that's great to see
Of course it is, now just have to work out how to fit all the clashing colours together thanks!
SotD wrote:
Can't wait to have you back in the PT. This time you should easily survive - Unless you decide to leave a million of wage cap unused
There's still plenty of time for us to find a way not to promote, but should we do I think we're definitely in a better place than last time. A lot of that is down to the number of talents I have developing this season - one maxing out, four going from 3 ->4, and seven going from 1/2->3. Just need to spend that excess wage cap on a rider like Pluchkin
the_hoyle wrote:
It's been a fantastic season, and the new sponsors next season should lead to a very nice looking jersey! With two airlines onboard, let hope you don't wing it next year...
Spoiler
I'll close the door on the way out...
Yes, I look forward to seeing what you're able to come up with I'm sure we'll fly up the rankings, don't worry
There's still plenty of time for us to find a way not to promote, but should we do I think we're definitely in a better place than last time. A lot of that is down to the number of talents I have developing this season - one maxing out, four going from 3 ->4, and seven going from 1/2->3. Just need to spend that excess wage cap on a rider like Pluchkin
Finding 1,5 mio or more will be difficult without destroying the team, though, I suspect. I don't necessarily see any of your riders drop significantly in wage, and some will definately ask for more, such as Yates and maybe Bellis aswell. Down goes Carthy and maybe Opie, so that should even out things. And as far as I can see you're spending every cent you have to offer, so only 1mio left for buying a new rider. So riders like Pluchkin, Ponzi (whom I guess will become available) or such riders, will be very difficult to sign unless you want to let go of two of your promotion riders. Pinot and Gallopin perhaps?
There's still plenty of time for us to find a way not to promote, but should we do I think we're definitely in a better place than last time. A lot of that is down to the number of talents I have developing this season - one maxing out, four going from 3 ->4, and seven going from 1/2->3. Just need to spend that excess wage cap on a rider like Pluchkin
Finding 1,5 mio or more will be difficult without destroying the team, though, I suspect. I don't necessarily see any of your riders drop significantly in wage, and some will definately ask for more, such as Yates and maybe Bellis aswell. Down goes Carthy and maybe Opie, so that should even out things. And as far as I can see you're spending every cent you have to offer, so only 1mio left for buying a new rider. So riders like Pluchkin, Ponzi (whom I guess will become available) or such riders, will be very difficult to sign unless you want to let go of two of your promotion riders. Pinot and Gallopin perhaps?
That's basically what I expect to happen, yeah. My plan should I promote will likely involve trying to move on Pinot, Gautier and Bibby as I don't think the wages they demand is worthwhile at the PT level. That should hopefully clear around 850k of cap space, not sure how much more Yates and Bellis will want but I hope for it not to be too much. Laporte, Ranaweera and Gallopin should also hopefully drop in wage a bit as well as Carthy and Opie so fingers crossed I can have 1 million cleared there to go with the additional 1 million from promotion. Then it's a case of spending 1.5 million getting the GC rider to stay up, and having another 500k in cap for a transfer in. At least that's the hope, can only go better than last time I suppose
That's basically what I expect to happen, yeah. My plan should I promote will likely involve trying to move on Pinot, Gautier and Bibby as I don't think the wages they demand is worthwhile at the PT level. That should hopefully clear around 850k of cap space, not sure how much more Yates and Bellis will want but I hope for it not to be too much. Laporte, Ranaweera and Gallopin should also hopefully drop in wage a bit as well as Carthy and Opie so fingers crossed I can have 1 million cleared there to go with the additional 1 million from promotion. Then it's a case of spending 1.5 million getting the GC rider to stay up, and having another 500k in cap for a transfer in. At least that's the hope, can only go better than last time I suppose
Was it Sicard, last time, that made your team go from decent to bad? (In not getting him)
If Bibby is not training eligeble (which I, if remembering correctly he isn't) then I agree. Anything above 120K for a rider that is expected to get GC spots of 20-25th is not worth the effort, and despite him being fast and capable of scoring some decent stage results it's too much to pay. And he definately is not going below 200K I think. I have Novak, a similar rider, for 119K, and he is not worth it. He is a great domestique, but in terms of points he is worthless.
I'll be sad to see Pinot go, however. I would have loved to buy him off you earlier, but 350K now for a 80MO rider. That's expensive. He won't ever get a top 10 GC in a GT anymore, and will even struggle to do so in the small GC races. So if he should be worth 350K in wages he should be trained to 82MO, which is too expensive. Those money would be better spent on the likes of Lecuisinier, or maybe even Novak or Vasyliv.
Gautier could be a saviour in the PT, I would think about it one more time before letting him go. Especially because you can't expect Bellis to do all that well in the PT. Making them 81 and 79HI would make you have a great position in the PT where there are several hilly races and stages fitting them both.
What will definately keep you up this time, is the strength in finishing the races, meaning a high acceleration and sprint stat. That can give such a great volume of points. Petit should still join Coquard as a leadout next season though.
Was it Sicard, last time, that made your team go from decent to bad? (In not getting him)
If Bibby is not training eligeble (which I, if remembering correctly he isn't) then I agree. Anything above 120K for a rider that is expected to get GC spots of 20-25th is not worth the effort, and despite him being fast and capable of scoring some decent stage results it's too much to pay. And he definately is not going below 200K I think. I have Novak, a similar rider, for 119K, and he is not worth it. He is a great domestique, but in terms of points he is worthless.
I'll be sad to see Pinot go, however. I would have loved to buy him off you earlier, but 350K now for a 80MO rider. That's expensive. He won't ever get a top 10 GC in a GT anymore, and will even struggle to do so in the small GC races. So if he should be worth 350K in wages he should be trained to 82MO, which is too expensive. Those money would be better spent on the likes of Lecuisinier, or maybe even Novak or Vasyliv.
Gautier could be a saviour in the PT, I would think about it one more time before letting him go. Especially because you can't expect Bellis to do all that well in the PT. Making them 81 and 79HI would make you have a great position in the PT where there are several hilly races and stages fitting them both.
What will definately keep you up this time, is the strength in finishing the races, meaning a high acceleration and sprint stat. That can give such a great volume of points. Petit should still join Coquard as a leadout next season though.
Yeah, the problem was that I went after Sicard quite hard and then got outbid on him with 1 hour remaining, and couldn't match it without basically destroying the base of my team in the long run.
I expect Bibby to increase in wage after he's had a really good season so far, but he's far better suited to the PCT where he can be a threat for a top 5 in basically any hilly or mountainous stage race with a TT. Pinot suffers from having a very low ACC, and while his wage will likely decrease again I'd rather spend that cap space on a more complete stage racer. Plus with Carthy developing, by 2018 he'll be around the same level as Pinot is now more or less - with another year's development still to go.
As good as Gautier has been, with his age and one dimensional nature I'm inclined to look for a replacement no matter what division I'm in. In our last stint he struggled to crack the top 15 a lot of the time, and I can't see that changing massively - especially as he's had only one good result so far this season. And I agree that Petit should be leading out Coquard, shame you're not willing to sell
Take a look at what Koretzky did for me this season. I can't see why Gautier shouldnt do the same. Mayer a bit better in sprints and he would do very well if planned away from those Big guns (which I tried with success from Koretzky). And two strong hilly riders in the PT is definately worth considering.
Coquard said he wont leave, I have tried threatening his wife, but no succes...
In these quiet times for the team, with no racing in the whole of June, the focus has been on behind the scenes work. This season has seen a change in jersey maker, with the_hoyle coming on board - we'd like to thank him for his efforts, and we're sure you'll agree that he's created nothing short of a masterpiece!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Over the summer break Ayubowan! Team HQ hasn't been the busiest place, but while we were preparing for the launch of the 2017 jersey we decided to work on something else. Everyone loves a little bit of number crunching, and so we have three tables for you here that may interest you - or may simply bore you to death.
The first of our tables is the simplest. It's a table showing the projected points of our team at the end of the season, based upon current points totals and the remaining race days for each rider. From this data you can see that we're projected to score more than the current projected rankings suggest (due to having plenty of race days remaining for our leaders) but likely not enough to secure promotion.
Next up we have the first of two tables based upon the projected points - this one is a comparison to the points totals of our riders last season. It has to be noted that a number of riders only turned professional this season so scored 0 last season, and that in addition to that some of the riders have developed their abilities since then. Additionally, it's difficult to make a side by side comparison due to not all riders being in the PCT last season, but we've tried our best.
Most notably, the riders who remained with the team after last season are all on course to have a lower points score, except from Adrien Petit - this may be due to the lower scale of points in the PCT than the PT, with Petit an outlier due to him benefiting from the lower level of competition. Overall however, we are forecast to score more than would have been expected based on the scores of these riders last season, largely thanks to the efforts of Ian Bibby.
Our third and final table shows the number of points each rider has scored for each €1000 in wage, as well as colour coding them relative to the team average. However this method of assessment is of limited use, as so many riders are somewhat overpaid due to their future potential. Thibaut Pinot, Tony Gallopin and Chris Opie don't fit that category though, so serious questions must be raised about their future - while Cyril Gautier is less than impressive for such a highly paid rider, despite being above the team average.
7th on Stage 3, Chris Opie
2nd on Stage 4, Suranga Ranaweera
8th on Stage 5, Ian Bibby
2nd on Stage 7, Ian Bibby
6th on Stage 8, Chris Opie
9th on GC, Thibaut Pinot
21st on GC, Ian Bibby
26th on GC, Adam Yates
28th on GC, Asela Sisira
45th on GC, Tony Gallopin
6th in Points, Suranga Ranaweera
2nd in KoM, Suranga Ranaweera
5th in Youth, Adam Yates
2nd in Teams, Ayubowan!
Grands Prix Cyclistes
4th on Stage 1, Cyril Gautier
5th on Stage 2, Jonathan Bellis
7th on GC, Cyril Gautier
9th on GC, Jonathan Bellis
5th in Points, Cyril Gautier
8th in Points, Jonathan Bellis
the_hoyle wrote:
Mixed results for the team in July and August. Nice result in Beijing for Gautier, but sadly nothing more to shout about for the team elsewhere
Well I mean we somehow averaged 22PPRD in August despite San Sebastian being a shambles, think we just have a knack for flying under the radar
the_hoyle wrote:
Mixed results for the team in July and August. Nice result in Beijing for Gautier, but sadly nothing more to shout about for the team elsewhere
Well I mean we somehow averaged 22PPRD in August despite San Sebastian being a shambles, think we just have a knack for flying under the radar
With only two months remaining in the season the promotion picture is still a muddy affair. Wiesenhof-Andritz and Porto-Prio both look to be headed back to the PT, but behind there's a group of eight teams including Ayubowan! who look to still be in with a chance. The top 5 will definitely promote, while 6th should be a promotion spot with the disbandment of our friends at Metinvest - though changes to the structure of the PT may change that. Below is the projected end of season table from 3rd to 10th, the teams that we believe here are our direct competition.
We've also tried to map out the remaining races for all of our rivals, and that is what this preview will be about - trying to work out what will happen in the battle for promotion. While currently there is a large spread between the projected final scores of the teams, the nature of the races remaining may bring them closer together - so please read on, and feel free to add your own input.
3
9
Team Telkom for Africa
2062
96
21,48
3007
4
2
Hugo Boss
2574
121
21,27
2978
5
3
Strava
2476
117
21,16
2962
6
7
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
2108
106
19,89
2785
7
10
Ayubowan!
2049
108
18,97
2656
8
5
Coldeportes
2188
121
18,08
2531
9
11
Meiji - JR East
1953
108
18,08
2531
10
6
Generali - AXA
2130
118
18,05
2527
Team Telkom for Africa
3
9
Team Telkom for Africa
2062
96
21,48
3007
HC
C1
Rheden GP
2
Tour of America
21
Paris-Tours
2
Tour of Britain
8
Course de Solidarnosc
4
Nantou Classic
2
Japan Cup
2
Colombian Venteaux?
2?
Tour of East Java?
2?
Telkom look to be in the strongest position heading into the final stretch of the season, but part of that is due to them having plenty of RDs in hand - with the Tour of America as a large chunk of that. We don't know their full schedule for certain, but apart from the Flat and Cobbled HC races that remain they have a team that should get them a decent score in every other race. So we'd say that barring disaster, they should be a PT team next season.
Hugo Boss
4
2
Hugo Boss
2574
121
21,27
2978
HC
C1
Course de Solidarnosc
4
Tour of Britain
8
Nantou Classic
2
Grand Prix de la Ville d'Oran
2
Milano-Torino
2
Hugo Boss are also in a very good position - all of the races they have remaining play to the strengths of their leadership trio of Kump, Costa and Bilbao. If anything they are more likely to move up the rankings than fall down, as they should score well in all their remaining races. The only thing standing between them and promotion is an absolute collapse in their remaining races, and that seems incredibly unlikely.
Strava
5
3
Strava
2476
117
21,16
2962
HC
C1
Tour of Ukraine
5
Tour of Britain
8
Rheden GP
2
Grand Prix de la Ville d'Oran
2
Giro dell'Emelia
2
Paris-Tours
2
Japan Cup
2
Strava have been quite the surprise package, and on paper look the weakest of the teams in the promotion fight. However, they'll be hoping that a dominant performance in Rheden combined with Van der Sande continuing to overperform in flat races will send them up. Add in their depth on the hills and the advantageous starting point they're in, and it'd be a real surprise not to see them round out the automatic promotion spots.
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
6
7
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
2108
106
19,89
2785
HC
C1
Tour of Ukraine
5
Tour of America
21
Giro dell'Emelia
2
Milano-Torino
2
Course de Solidarnosc
4
VisitUkraine are another team that has surprised this season, and seems a little bit out of place. They do have hopes in their remaining races, but the Tour of America should drag them down significantly - it's hard to see them keeping up their PPRD there. Where they end up in the rankings depends just how well they do in the three remaining HC races, and also heavily upon whether bad races for their rivals balance out the damage from the Tour of America.
Ayubowan!
7
10
Ayubowan!
2049
108
18,97
2656
HC
C1
C2
Tour of Ukraine
5
Tour of Britain
8
Tour du Faso
3
Rheden GP
2
Nantou Classic
2
Giro dell'Emelia
2
Milano-Torino
2
Paris-Tours
2
Course de Solidarnosc
4
Japan Cup
2
It should first be noted that it's unlikely that there'll be an unbiased view given here. We find ourselves in an interesting position, with the remaining races likely to either be really good (Hills and TTs) or really bad (Cobbles and Sprints). Add in the likely hit to our PPRD from going to Faso and we're not exactly in an ideal position. However, Ukraine is a perfect race for Bibby and with Gautier and Bellis in all our remaining hilly races we have to hope we can push on and take 6th - though anything more is unlikely.
Coldeportes
8
5
Coldeportes
2188
121
18,08
2531
HC
C1
Rheden GP
2
Nantou Classic
2
Paris-Tours
2
Grand Prix de la Ville d'Oran
2
Course de Solidarnosc
4
Colombian Venteaux
2
Japan Cup
2
Tour of East Java?
2
Coldeportes look likely to disband, but they still ought to be included here in order to provide a complete picture. We don't know their full schedule for sure, but we expect they'll take advantage of the late season mountainous races - which will boost their chances, as will the flat races they have remaining. Weaknesses on the Hills and Cobbles will however hold them back somewhat, and so they seem unlikely to push on much higher up the rankings.
Meiji - JR East
9
11
Meiji - JR East
1953
108
18,08
2531
HC
C1
C2
Rheden GP
2
Tour of Britain
8
Herald Sun Tour
5
Paris-Tours
2
Nantou Classic
2
Course de Solidarnosc
4
Milano-Torino
2
Japan Cup
2
Colombian Venteaux?
2
Tour of East Java?
2
Meiji are dependent on Kinoshita from here on in, and he could potentially sned them to promotion. However, the effects of the C2 Herald Sun Tour and the non-hilly races where they'll struggle to get a strong result may undermine their charge. If Kinoshita does dominate in Britain like he did in Beijing then I'd expect them to go up automatically - but if not, they'll probably have to settle for battling for 6th.
Generali - AXA
10
6
Generali - AXA
2130
118
18,05
2527
HC
C1
Rheden GP
2
Tour of Britain
8
Paris-Tours
2
Nantou Classic
2
Course de Solidarnosc
4
Milano-Torino
2
Japan Cup
2
Generali would have snapped your hand off if you offered them a top 10 at the start of the season. However, looking at their remaining schedule there's only Rheden where they may massively outperform their rivals through Teunissen. Yes, Ulissi should continue to score well - but when he will be facing Gautier and Kinoshita in all his remaining races, it's unlikely he'll be able to help Generali significantly outperform their respective teams.
Our Prediction
3
Hugo Boss
4
Team Telkom for Africa
5
Strava
6
Ayubowan!
7
Meiji - JR East
8
VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
9
Coldeportes
10
Generali - AXA
Feel free to add your prediction and comments below!
thanks!
that is amazing!
