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PCM.daily Projects WT Stat Discussion
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 16-10-2016 21:52
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Marco: As I'm the one primarily doing the RR stats, I can tell you that there will hardly be any changes other than a few flat and sta stats and those are for the lesser names that finished well.
The RR was like a windy GW or like a super cold LBL that we had this year. It was all about a combination of luck, being in the right place for the split and being able to deal with the conditions that were hot and windy.
Once echelons had been formed that was race over for anybody behind and you could either stay with the front group or not. Also given the fact that differences in sta are minimal it's not so hard for a 73/74 sta rider to stay with the leading group if his pre-race and race form is good. As Croatia has already said if a rider like Viviani deserved more sta he would've challenged properly in the sprint as he was one of the fastest there, if anything he's actually showing that 73 sta might be too high for him as 74 or 75 for Nizzolo actually looks pretty good.
As a firm guideline Sta is mostly worked out for monuments and other races like Amstel etc which are the true indicators of sta and then from these we work backwards.
The last MSR I played, Cav won and that was with his sta of 74, which clearly shows that an in-form 74 can win a monument if the rider is suited to that kind of race.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 16-10-2016 22:15
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 02:30
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Bot Agent
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 16-10-2016 22:00
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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LuckyLukas wrote:
In the light of recent events I want to say something regarding the TT stat. I have the feeling that the TT stat gets misinterpreted a bit. The TT stat just reflects the quality of timetrialing on absolutely flat terrain. The consequence of this misinterpetation are often too high TT stats for the good climbers and tour specialists and too bad stats for the specialists. The rec, res and aspecially the mon stat have to be considered more.
Based on that I already sugestet to downgrade most TT stats of the gc contenders and an upgrade of some specialists some weeks ago.
This was rejected based on the argument that the gc contenders with bad TT would lack motivation when they already have a big deficit early in a grand tour. After playing three seasons of carrer mode with my own TT stats I can not confirm that argument.
So I can just recoment to ceconsider my suggestion to widen the range of gc contenders TT stats. Here are some exampels.
GC Contenders
Froome 78/79
Porte 74
Quintana 72
Bardet, Aru 69
Chavez 67
Rodriguez 65
Specialists
Cancelara, Martin 82
Doumulin 81
Dennis, Castroviejo, Bodnar, Malori 79
I hope I won't read the comment "Bodnar better than Froome, are you serious?"
Like I said TT stat only shows the quality on flat timetrialing. As soon as there are some accents guys like Bodnar will fade big time and guys like Quintana will be much better. Aspecially in GT when rec comes into play
Just letting you know that we haven't ignored your posts or suggestions about TT and in some aspects we actually agree with you. We decided that this is a longer term thing to look at in terms of testing when we play our own races. Therefore we will look to implement any changes like this for the 2017 update which will be in Feb next year
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 16-10-2016 22:04
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Ollfardh wrote:
I doubt he got a decent result in 250km race before today, but again correct me if I'm wrong.
Therefore +1 wouldn't be unfair.
@Tafiolmo: Well if you are saying that was a combination of luck and whatsoever, i can't argue. Thanks for the answer though
Even if do not agree, I respect both of your opinions though, they are reasonable. |
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 17-10-2016 07:19
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1070
Joined: 21-10-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Paul23 wrote:
Cancellare doesn't really matter, as he retired.
But in my opinion, it's:
81: Tony
80: Kiriyenka, Dumoulin
79: Castoviejo, Dennis
78: Froome, Malori
Dumoulin should really excel at TTs in stage races, as he will be much fresher there than all the others(except Froome), so to balance it out, we can give him 1 stat lower than Tony. Kiri wasn't really amazing this season and was 2nd in the WC.
Tony may have had a bad year, but he came back in style. Mainly because of his change in seat position.
Croatia14 wrote:
I'm done with the Martin TT discussion in the stats discussion thread, so I post the link here: Link
It's a German Source that points at an interview with his manager. Basically he expained the changes of seat positions (and the failures with it) that were based on wrong data; also talked about how things went in the right direction after Rio and the turnaround issues then. Great read to understand his results a little better!
This was Tonys first race with the old position and he dominated. He was also still amazing before he changed the position. About the TT in Rio. Cance even dropped out of the Tour to prepare. Also the TT was hilly, almost mountainous. Cance has 76 HI. Tony 73.
Tonys PRL should still be untouched, as he hasn't proven to be top there as well.
If you do not see any difference between Tony 2015/2016 and Tony World CHamps 2016, I really can't help you.
@Arberg: You can stop the trolling already. Btw: Wiggins may have beaten Tony in the World ITT champs in 2014, but the olympics in 2012....well, Tony still beat Froome with a broken wrist. Not too bad 
In 2012 was Wiggins all superior on all time trials. Froome/Martin was world class, but Wiggins was a monster from another planet.
Over his career is Tony much good and the third best time trial rider the past 10 years. But he has never been near of Olympic Champion and two of his world championships won he only because the Olympic Champion was not with.
The last few years he has won one time trial after all other peaked to Olympic games. I can good follow you from Dumoulin and Froome is better in GT/stage race versus the major championship. But we must not forget that they won silver and bronze to Olympic games. Behind the best and biggest time trial rider of all time. Which is the biggest and most important time trial in the world.
Tony Martin is 12th
Edited by Arberg27 on 17-10-2016 09:24
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 17-10-2016 16:09
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
PCM$: 400.00
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Arberg27 wrote:
Paul23 wrote:
Cancellare doesn't really matter, as he retired.
But in my opinion, it's:
81: Tony
80: Kiriyenka, Dumoulin
79: Castoviejo, Dennis
78: Froome, Malori
Dumoulin should really excel at TTs in stage races, as he will be much fresher there than all the others(except Froome), so to balance it out, we can give him 1 stat lower than Tony. Kiri wasn't really amazing this season and was 2nd in the WC.
Tony may have had a bad year, but he came back in style. Mainly because of his change in seat position.
Croatia14 wrote:
I'm done with the Martin TT discussion in the stats discussion thread, so I post the link here: Link
It's a German Source that points at an interview with his manager. Basically he expained the changes of seat positions (and the failures with it) that were based on wrong data; also talked about how things went in the right direction after Rio and the turnaround issues then. Great read to understand his results a little better!
This was Tonys first race with the old position and he dominated. He was also still amazing before he changed the position. About the TT in Rio. Cance even dropped out of the Tour to prepare. Also the TT was hilly, almost mountainous. Cance has 76 HI. Tony 73.
Tonys PRL should still be untouched, as he hasn't proven to be top there as well.
If you do not see any difference between Tony 2015/2016 and Tony World CHamps 2016, I really can't help you.
@Arberg: You can stop the trolling already. Btw: Wiggins may have beaten Tony in the World ITT champs in 2014, but the olympics in 2012....well, Tony still beat Froome with a broken wrist. Not too bad
In 2012 was Wiggins all superior on all time trials. Froome/Martin was world class, but Wiggins was a monster from another planet.
Over his career is Tony much good and the third best time trial rider the past 10 years. But he has never been near of Olympic Champion and two of his world championships won he only because the Olympic Champion was not with.
The last few years he has won one time trial after all other peaked to Olympic games. I can good follow you from Dumoulin and Froome is better in GT/stage race versus the major championship. But we must not forget that they won silver and bronze to Olympic games. Behind the best and biggest time trial rider of all time. Which is the biggest and most important time trial in the world.
Tony Martin is 12th
So you won't stop trolling, huh? The TT in Rio was very hilly, so obvs Cance was a favourite, while Tony wasn't. Tony pretty much dominated all world championships he won. Also, who cares about 2008, 09, 10 and 11...it doesn't matter for the stats.
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 17-10-2016 19:37
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1070
Joined: 21-10-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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So you won't stop trolling, huh? Dumoulin and Froome are classes better, just look Tour De France and Olympic Games |
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 17-10-2016 22:30
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
PCM$: 400.00
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Arberg27 wrote:
So you won't stop trolling, huh? Dumoulin and Froome are classes better, just look Tour De France and Olympic Games
We'll see how the stat team decides.
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| gvarv |
Posted on 22-10-2016 00:09
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Amateur
Posts: 20
Joined: 22-06-2015
PCM$: 200.00
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I think we should be very careful about big adjustments to well established riders based on WC. This late in the season few riders are anywhere near their max potential.
Apart from concluding that Sagan is inhuman, and that Cav is back!
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| sasijaski |
Posted on 22-10-2016 22:53
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Junior Rider
Posts: 42
Joined: 12-08-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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no more updates for pcm daily expansión pack? no update 2? thank you |
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 30-10-2016 15:31
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Will Walscheid and Lutsenko be upgraded? |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-10-2016 15:38
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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well these types of questions are pretty much unnecessary cause we update stats after every race raced in the professional calendar, no matter if Vuelta a Guatemala or Paris - Roubaix...
surely the couple will get updated stats, as any rider that had significant sucess/problems at the Tour of Hainan and no deeper reasons for that...
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 30-10-2016 15:45
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
well these types of questions are pretty much unnecessary cause we update stats after every race raced in the professional calendar, no matter if Vuelta a Guatemala or Paris - Roubaix...
surely the couple will get updated stats, as any rider that had significant sucess/problems at the Tour of Hainan and no deeper reasons for that...
There's a difference between "update stats" and "upgrade stats"...
I know you always update riders, i just wanted to know if they will hav any upgrade in their main stats and which of them.
Probably this is unnecessary, but i thought i could ask this, if i can't, i won't anymore |
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| Selwink |
Posted on 30-10-2016 15:48
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8856
Joined: 17-05-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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In any case, I don't see any reason why Lutsenko should be upgraded. If it were up to me I'd give Walscheid a little sprint boost, but that's really it.
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 30-10-2016 15:51
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Selwink wrote:
In any case, I don't see any reason why Lutsenko should be upgraded. If it were up to me I'd give Walscheid a little sprint boost, but that's really it.
I don't know if you are speaking in general, or with me, but i never said that Lutsenko or Walscheid deserve upgrade. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-10-2016 15:57
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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Yeah of course, it would be even better if you give your opinion on these guys too (like suggesting stats or points to upgrade) - Like that we would have some major community withinput which always helps!
Lutsenko will maximum get a minor upgrade, but most likely none, cause his stats would already propose the outcome of the real race (being the pre-race favourite and the best statted rider). He is already an outstanding fighter on bumpy terrain, so he has amazing back-up stats over hills.
Walscheid is a flat powerhouse with a very strong long sprint - he's lacking acceleration though and will have a hard time to come over any hill with his statue. We have 75 FL 75 SPR 73 ACC 65 HI in mind for him.
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 30-10-2016 16:09
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
Yeah of course, it would be even better if you give your opinion on these guys too (like suggesting stats or points to upgrade) - Like that we would have some major community withinput which always helps!
Lutsenko will maximum get a minor upgrade, but most likely none, cause his stats would already propose the outcome of the real race (being the pre-race favourite and the best statted rider). He is already an outstanding fighter on bumpy terrain, so he has amazing back-up stats over hills.
Walscheid is a flat powerhouse with a very strong long sprint - he's lacking acceleration though and will have a hard time to come over any hill with his statue. We have 75 FL 75 SPR 73 ACC 65 HI in mind for him.
i usually suggest some changes and most of times (not everytime) i get only downvotes (like someone just di upward) and no answers, you could say "because your suggestions are stupid", well prob you're right, then i was just asking if the team had planned to upgrade any of those two riders.
Now don't worry, it's the last time i do that |
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| Mateo4 |
Posted on 30-10-2016 19:20
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Free Agent
Posts: 108
Joined: 14-03-2015
PCM$: 200.00
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How can I get the stats from the google document to my cdb? |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 31-10-2016 08:41
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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https://pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread....st_1204136
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| Templar |
Posted on 18-11-2016 20:10
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Amateur
Posts: 2
Joined: 05-06-2010
PCM$: 600.00
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I think William Bonnet deserves a small boost in his STA rating (currently at 68 if I'm correct) to something in the low 70's.
He finished 8th at the WC Road Race, with all the riders ahead of him being better sprinters. |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 24-11-2016 21:46
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Sprinter
Posts: 1962
Joined: 10-04-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Templar wrote:
I think William Bonnet deserves a small boost in his STA rating (currently at 68 if I'm correct) to something in the low 70's.
He finished 8th at the WC Road Race, with all the riders ahead of him being better sprinters.
I've pushed Bonnet to 73 STA but to be fair that WC RR even for a flat circuit was very atypical anyway as most know. because taking that aside his results based on 2016 with longer classics are quite poor.
But of course this could be a case of him being used up early by his team in these races............... which is why his results in those races are quite low.
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