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PCM.daily Projects WT Stat Discussion
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 13-10-2016 22:24
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Arberg27 wrote:
Paul23 wrote:
Well, you probably saw it coming....
decrease Tonys HI and increase his TT please. No? Tony can already now become number 12 to olympics games, +3 minutes after Cancellara.
He can also already become world champion if Dumoulin and Dennis peaked to olympics games and if Cancellara and Froome is not included.
The olympic TT was almost mountaious. On a flat TT like the one in Qatar, Froome would've been probably behind Mullen.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 14-10-2016 07:31
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World Champion
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Paul23 wrote:
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Thatguyeveryonehates wrote:
martin changed tt position after 2014.
after the olympics but before the tour of britain he changed back
that explains the swings in performance
Nope, the shift in performance is because all of his TT rivals had another goals this year. 
He said, that he wasn't even going full, because he heard, that the others were slower. He was "cruising" to the finish. He also said, that his position change made the most.
I would say anything that would make me look like the best in the world, if anybody cared to ask. 
So what he says is hardly relevant, but what is relevant are his results in TTs during last two years. He is maybe 3rd-4th best TTist in the world and stats should reflect that.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 26-11-2024 18:04
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 14-10-2016 10:57
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Paul23 wrote:
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Thatguyeveryonehates wrote:
martin changed tt position after 2014.
after the olympics but before the tour of britain he changed back
that explains the swings in performance
Nope, the shift in performance is because all of his TT rivals had another goals this year.
He said, that he wasn't even going full, because he heard, that the others were slower. He was "cruising" to the finish. He also said, that his position change made the most.
I would say anything that would make me look like the best in the world, if anybody cared to ask.
So what he says is hardly relevant, but what is relevant are his results in TTs during last two years. He is maybe 3rd-4th best TTist in the world and stats should reflect that.
Tony is known for being dead serious with his talking. He's very down to the ground. I don't think that anybody was able to touch him at the Worlds, no matter what form.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 14-10-2016 11:05
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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Getting beaten all season, then winning the worlds, that's a form peak (and possibly better performance in >40°). He's not the guy he was 3-5 years ago, when he won everything he made a goal of.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 14-10-2016 11:45
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Protected Rider
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Ollfardh wrote:
Getting beaten all season, then winning the worlds, that's a form peak (and possibly better performance in >40°). He's not the guy he was 3-5 years ago, when he won everything he made a goal of.  |
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 14-10-2016 12:02
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Paul23 wrote:
I don't think that anybody was able to touch him at the Worlds, no matter what form.
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| Arberg27 |
Posted on 14-10-2016 12:22
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Protected Rider
Posts: 1070
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TT:
81: Cancellara
80: Dumoulin
79: Froome, Dennis, Martin
78: Kiryienka, Castroviejo, Malori |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 14-10-2016 12:33
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
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Let's please avoid meaningless posts. Next I see gets deleted altogether.
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| LuckyLukas |
Posted on 14-10-2016 13:11
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Under 23
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In the light of recent events I want to say something regarding the TT stat. I have the feeling that the TT stat gets misinterpreted a bit. The TT stat just reflects the quality of timetrialing on absolutely flat terrain. The consequence of this misinterpetation are often too high TT stats for the good climbers and tour specialists and too bad stats for the specialists. The rec, res and aspecially the mon stat have to be considered more.
Based on that I already sugestet to downgrade most TT stats of the gc contenders and an upgrade of some specialists some weeks ago.
This was rejected based on the argument that the gc contenders with bad TT would lack motivation when they already have a big deficit early in a grand tour. After playing three seasons of carrer mode with my own TT stats I can not confirm that argument.
So I can just recoment to ceconsider my suggestion to widen the range of gc contenders TT stats. Here are some exampels.
GC Contenders
Froome 78/79
Porte 74
Quintana 72
Bardet, Aru 69
Chavez 67
Rodriguez 65
Specialists
Cancelara, Martin 82
Doumulin 81
Dennis, Castroviejo, Bodnar, Malori 79
I hope I won't read the comment "Bodnar better than Froome, are you serious?"
Like I said TT stat only shows the quality on flat timetrialing. As soon as there are some accents guys like Bodnar will fade big time and guys like Quintana will be much better. Aspecially in GT when rec comes into play
Edited by LuckyLukas on 16-10-2016 19:48
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 16-10-2016 15:28
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Arberg27 wrote:
TT:
81: Cancellara
80: Dumoulin
79: Froome, Dennis, Martin
78: Kiryienka, Castroviejo, Malori
Wtf! +2 Cancellara -1 Dumoulin is crazy! That seems to much :\
I think Castroviejo could deserve 79 though
After DOHA I suggest STA upgrade for Viviani and Nizzolo. (Not that they are the only who deserve but i talk about riders that i follow in the entire season)
Edited by marcoplv95 on 16-10-2016 15:33
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 16-10-2016 19:38
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
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Cancellare doesn't really matter, as he retired.
But in my opinion, it's:
81: Tony
80: Kiriyenka, Dumoulin
79: Castoviejo, Dennis
78: Froome, Malori
Dumoulin should really excel at TTs in stage races, as he will be much fresher there than all the others(except Froome), so to balance it out, we can give him 1 stat lower than Tony. Kiri wasn't really amazing this season and was 2nd in the WC.
Tony may have had a bad year, but he came back in style. Mainly because of his change in seat position.
Croatia14 wrote:
I'm done with the Martin TT discussion in the stats discussion thread, so I post the link here: Link
It's a German Source that points at an interview with his manager. Basically he expained the changes of seat positions (and the failures with it) that were based on wrong data; also talked about how things went in the right direction after Rio and the turnaround issues then. Great read to understand his results a little better!
This was Tonys first race with the old position and he dominated. He was also still amazing before he changed the position. About the TT in Rio. Cance even dropped out of the Tour to prepare. Also the TT was hilly, almost mountainous. Cance has 76 HI. Tony 73.
Tonys PRL should still be untouched, as he hasn't proven to be top there as well.
If you do not see any difference between Tony 2015/2016 and Tony World CHamps 2016, I really can't help you.
@Arberg: You can stop the trolling already. Btw: Wiggins may have beaten Tony in the World ITT champs in 2014, but the olympics in 2012....well, Tony still beat Froome with a broken wrist. Not too bad
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| Selwink |
Posted on 16-10-2016 19:44
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8856
Joined: 17-05-2012
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marcoplv95 wrote:
Arberg27 wrote:
TT:
81: Cancellara
80: Dumoulin
79: Froome, Dennis, Martin
78: Kiryienka, Castroviejo, Malori
Wtf! +2 Cancellara -1 Dumoulin is crazy! That seems to much :\
I think Castroviejo could deserve 79 though
After DOHA I suggest STA upgrade for Viviani and Nizzolo. (Not that they are the only who deserve but i talk about riders that i follow in the entire season)
I disagree about Viviani's STA. He's currently at 73 STA, and I think that he really should have sprinted for the win instead of breaking down in the last kilometers to warrant a higher STA stat than that. For Nizzolo I can agree that it should be upped a bit, but since it's at 74 already not by too much.
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 16-10-2016 20:24
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Selwink wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
Arberg27 wrote:
TT:
81: Cancellara
80: Dumoulin
79: Froome, Dennis, Martin
78: Kiryienka, Castroviejo, Malori
Wtf! +2 Cancellara -1 Dumoulin is crazy! That seems to much :\
I think Castroviejo could deserve 79 though
After DOHA I suggest STA upgrade for Viviani and Nizzolo. (Not that they are the only who deserve but i talk about riders that i follow in the entire season)
I disagree about Viviani's STA. He's currently at 73 STA, and I think that he really should have sprinted for the win instead of breaking down in the last kilometers to warrant a higher STA stat than that. For Nizzolo I can agree that it should be upped a bit, but since it's at 74 already not by too much.
73 and 74 are really low values... it was 260km stage and Belgium forced really much the pace. Viviani still ended in first 20, and has STA no way close to TOP 50 |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 16-10-2016 21:06
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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marcoplv95 wrote:
Selwink wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
After DOHA I suggest STA upgrade for Viviani and Nizzolo. (Not that they are the only who deserve but i talk about riders that i follow in the entire season)
I disagree about Viviani's STA. He's currently at 73 STA, and I think that he really should have sprinted for the win instead of breaking down in the last kilometers to warrant a higher STA stat than that. For Nizzolo I can agree that it should be upped a bit, but since it's at 74 already not by too much.
73 and 74 are really low values... it was 260km stage and Belgium forced really much the pace. Viviani still ended in first 20, and has STA no way close to TOP 50
the question who ended up in the first group had nothing to do with Stamina today! your point only proves, that both could have a better STA than f.e. Ryan Roth - and not even that, cause these guys have done work for finishing with the first group (while being in the breakaway)
weather you'd finish in the first group or later was decided far before stamina matters...it's even the other way round: Viviani did absolutely nothing until the final 3 kilometers, still he got beaten by former breakaway member Nic Dougall - should that implicate that Dougall has a higher STA than Viviani? Maybe, at least it's an indicator in that direction. On the other side there is no reason to give Viviani a higher STA stat than f.e. Groenewegen for this race, cause they didn't race against each other where STA matters.
So if you are mentioning opinions on this race, remember that STA only has an influence on where the guys positioned themselves in their respective groups, not outside. Hence it will be very hard to decide on who is going to get which stat increases/decreases, strengthened by the fact that group forming was mainly an issue of positioning which we can't stat with the stat raster Cyanide gives us.
Coming back to the initial idea of your post:
No way Viviani should get a STA upgrade, a downgrade would be more reasonable after this performance (but not likely, as I'm not sure if he went full guess to the finishing line)
Nizzolo didn't beat a single guy with a clean sprint today besides Boasson Hagen. He in no way overperformed in comparison to his stats, so an upgraded wouldn't have any base that makes sense.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 16-10-2016 21:07
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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marcoplv95 wrote:
Selwink wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
Arberg27 wrote:
TT:
81: Cancellara
80: Dumoulin
79: Froome, Dennis, Martin
78: Kiryienka, Castroviejo, Malori
Wtf! +2 Cancellara -1 Dumoulin is crazy! That seems to much :\
I think Castroviejo could deserve 79 though
After DOHA I suggest STA upgrade for Viviani and Nizzolo. (Not that they are the only who deserve but i talk about riders that i follow in the entire season)
I disagree about Viviani's STA. He's currently at 73 STA, and I think that he really should have sprinted for the win instead of breaking down in the last kilometers to warrant a higher STA stat than that. For Nizzolo I can agree that it should be upped a bit, but since it's at 74 already not by too much.
73 and 74 are really low values... it was 260km stage and Belgium forced really much the pace. Viviani still ended in first 20, and has STA no way close to TOP 50
They survived because of their flat stat. Viviani finished behind guys like Korsaeth and Kolar, who did a lot of work. They should be the ones receiving an upgrade. Nizzolo maybe.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 16-10-2016 21:29
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Croatia14 wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
Selwink wrote:
marcoplv95 wrote:
After DOHA I suggest STA upgrade for Viviani and Nizzolo. (Not that they are the only who deserve but i talk about riders that i follow in the entire season)
I disagree about Viviani's STA. He's currently at 73 STA, and I think that he really should have sprinted for the win instead of breaking down in the last kilometers to warrant a higher STA stat than that. For Nizzolo I can agree that it should be upped a bit, but since it's at 74 already not by too much.
73 and 74 are really low values... it was 260km stage and Belgium forced really much the pace. Viviani still ended in first 20, and has STA no way close to TOP 50
the question who ended up in the first group had nothing to do with Stamina today! your point only proves, that both could have a better STA than f.e. Ryan Roth - and not even that, cause these guys have done work for finishing with the first group (while being in the breakaway)
weather you'd finish in the first group or later was decided far before stamina matters...it's even the other way round: Viviani did absolutely nothing until the final 3 kilometers, still he got beaten by former breakaway member Nic Dougall - should that implicate that Dougall has a higher STA than Viviani? Maybe, at least it's an indicator in that direction. On the other side there is no reason to give Viviani a higher STA stat than f.e. Groenewegen for this race, cause they didn't race against each other where STA matters.
So if you are mentioning opinions on this race, remember that STA only has an influence on where the guys positioned themselves in their respective groups, not outside. Hence it will be very hard to decide on who is going to get which stat increases/decreases, strengthened by the fact that group forming was mainly an issue of positioning which we can't stat with the stat raster Cyanide gives us.
Coming back to the initial idea of your post:
No way Viviani should get a STA upgrade, a downgrade would be more reasonable after this performance (but not likely, as I'm not sure if he went full guess to the finishing line)
Nizzolo didn't beat a single guy with a clean sprint today besides Boasson Hagen. He in no way overperformed in comparison to his stats, so an upgraded wouldn't have any base that makes sense.
So the performance of Nic Dougall is an indicator that he should have more STA than Viviani, but Nizzolo shouldn't have more STA than Kristoff?
It's clueless. |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 16-10-2016 21:33
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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So the performance of Nic Dougall is an indicator that he should have more STA than Viviani
No, it's an indicator that his STA should be upgraded, not that it should be better than Viviani's
but Nizzolo shouldn't have more STA than Kristoff?
Why would he though? Kristoff has won Ronde van Vlaanderen and Milano San Remo, Nizzolo has this 5th place in a flat WC on his side.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 16-10-2016 21:33
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
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marcoplv95 wrote:
So the performance of Nic Dougall is an indicator that he should have more STA than Viviani, but Nizzolo shouldn't have more STA than Kristoff?
It's clueless.
You're mixing up two different arguments - Dougall was my indicator for a guy who has been in the break before - did more work than a guy riding on backwheels for 255 kms.
Hopefully you've watched the sprint and interviews, otherwise the term "clueless" can strike back sooner than later. I talked about a proper sprint for a reason. Kristoff got blocked by a wave of his teammate Boasson Hagen and had to leave out some pedals. Hence I don't count him into that.
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| marcoplv95 |
Posted on 16-10-2016 21:41
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Stagiare
Posts: 210
Joined: 18-05-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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matt17br wrote:
So the performance of Nic Dougall is an indicator that he should have more STA than Viviani
No, it's an indicator that his STA should be upgraded, not that it should be better than Viviani's
but Nizzolo shouldn't have more STA than Kristoff?
Why would he though? Kristoff has won Ronde van Vlaanderen and Milano San Remo, Nizzolo has this 5th place in a flat WC on his side.
That was obviously sarcastic, meaning that if Dougall ended up before Viviani doesn't mean that he should have more STA, as well Nizzolo shouldn't have more STA than Kristoff.
I just think that after such an hard race (260km at forced pace), both (and obv not only them) deserve +1 STA because 73 and 74 are too low.
Nizzolo doesn't have just 5th place in a flat WC, but also 3th on Cyclassics Hamburg, 2nd and 3rd in Vattenfall, 2nd in GP Ouest and more 
Nizzolo had the best season of his career, so probably deserves more than what he has since more than one year. If i'm not true, then you overrated him before this season. But no, i think that +1 in STA would be fair after all |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 16-10-2016 21:52
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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marcoplv95 wrote:
matt17br wrote:
So the performance of Nic Dougall is an indicator that he should have more STA than Viviani
No, it's an indicator that his STA should be upgraded, not that it should be better than Viviani's
but Nizzolo shouldn't have more STA than Kristoff?
Why would he though? Kristoff has won Ronde van Vlaanderen and Milano San Remo, Nizzolo has this 5th place in a flat WC on his side.
That was obviously sarcastic, meaning that if Dougall ended up before Viviani doesn't mean that he should have more STA, as well Nizzolo shouldn't have more STA than Kristoff.
I just think that after such an hard race (260km at forced pace), both (and obv not only them) deserve +1 STA because 73 and 74 are too low.
Nizzolo doesn't have just 5th place in a flat WC, but also 3th on Cyclassics Hamburg, 2nd and 3rd in Vattenfall, 2nd in GP Ouest and more
Nizzolo had the best season of his career, so probably deserves more than what he has since more than one year. If i'm not true, then you overrated him before this season. But no, i think that +1 in STA would be fair after all
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't all the races you name just above 200km? You want to be looking at races like Milan-San Remo to rate an Italian sprinter's stamina, and I'm afraid to say he never managed a good result there. I doubt he got a decent result in 250km race before today, but again correct me if I'm wrong.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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