Quintana fucked up today and didn't get on Froome's wheel, but its far from a disaster. The Tour will still be decided on the MTFs and the two ITTs and while Froome obviously is strong, today's stage win wasn't necessarily a w/kg display like we are used to seeing from the great Christopher.
Its full coverage and we start off with a hard climb. The finale of Comella-Beixalis-Arcalis is extremely hard and optimally for a team such as Sky to drill it. Will be some very interesting last 45 kilometres.
The break might take it, but I think it will come down to a fistfight for the stage on Arcalis. Hopefully it will, at least. Movistar was poor today, Anacona and Moreno were nowhere to be found. I have my doubts that Sky completely will control everything 2 days in a row after they got their stage, but they definitely have the team. The rest are as tired.
The French were disappointing today. Seems only Bardet has it.
Edited by Riis123 on 09-07-2016 21:38
Nice analysis, expecting Impey to show his true powerclimber skillz from the break in the finale
Here's the profile and preview if you want it, spoilered to not take away from Riis' analysis. Favorites a bit hastily changed
Spoiler
OhmygodOhmygodOhmygod. It's beautiful! The first Mountaintop finish of Le Tour de "France" is entirely in Spain and Andorra, and the entertainment is cranked up the 200%, hopefully. Andorre Arcalis has been used twice as a summit finish in Le Tour, won by Jan Ullrich and, erm, Brice Feillu, who now riders for Fortuneo-Vital Concept. I don't see him pulling off a repeat.
What a last 47km. The short but steep Cat. 2 Côte de la Comella, the slightly longer but even steeper Cat. 1 Col de Beixalis (which may cause some PTSD for Froomebot, after last year's Vuelta) and finally the long way up to Andorre Arcalis, which is officially 10km at 7.2%, though you could make a case for it being tougher with plenty of stop/start hills in the leadup to the final 10km. However, it is more a defensive climb, not as hard as it is perhaps built up to be. The tough run in should remedy that, though.
***** The break
**** Froome, Quintana
*** Aru, Bardet, van Garderen, Rodriguez, Valverde
** Meintjes, Yates, Barguil, Rolland, Landa, Majka, Porte, Martin, Henao
* Contador, Everyone else who can climb
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Riis123 wrote:
What, why don't you just post every stage preview here, similar to what Stromeon did in the Giro? I am terrible at stuff like this anyways.
I have in the preview thread, other than 20 and 21 smh
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Riis123 wrote:
What, why don't you just post every stage preview here, similar to what Stromeon did in the Giro? I am terrible at stuff like this anyways.
I have in the preview thread, other than 20 and 21 smh
Yeah I know, thats why you make the stage threads and the preview for each stage like Stromeon did (he had also tons of previews in advance), its annoying that these thread aren't made or have to be made by me who can't bother to post a profile or some other stuff to spice it up a bit.
Hey, can you please just give this thread a proper title so people seeing it instantly know it is a TDF thread and no some kind of weird foreign product spam.
I didn't because I knew where the race was finishing, but others might not know that.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
baseballlover312 wrote:
Hey, can you please just give this thread a proper title so people seeing it instantly know it is a TDF thread and no some kind of weird foreign product spam.
I didn't because I knew where the race was finishing, but others might not know that.
jandal7 wrote:
[quote]Riis123 wrote:
What, why don't you just post every stage preview here, similar to what Stromeon did in the Giro? I am terrible at stuff like this anyways.
I have in the preview thread, other than 20 and 21 smh
Yeah I know, thats why you make the stage threads and the preview for each stage like Stromeon did (he had also tons of previews in advance), its annoying that these thread aren't made or have to be made by me who can't bother to post a profile or some other stuff to spice it up a bit.[/quote
I was going to today, but I was asleep when you did it
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Nice and Arcalis is a legendary mountain in the Tour de France, so that can only mean one thing?
Have to say Rolland looked great today managing to keep on for so long, so I have to assume he will do something today. Sky has shown they are trying to control the race, but not set the biggest pace either, so all about what Movistar will do
Don't know if there are other jokers, Pinot might go for the KoM and Caruso has been a solid rock, so hopefully he won't get water bottle assignments today and go for some glory (for once)
Should be a showdown between Froome and Quintana, hopefully Nairo has learned how to accelerate properly since the last tour, where he seemed to not dig deep enough a couple of times when he attacked. Not especially worried about the Froome lead, I believe Quintana will beat him in the TT with the wonderful Movistar Canyon TT bike
This looks like the type of stage profile that screams a strong breakaway group getting away and a couple holding on to fight for the win up Arcalis. I don't see Froome dropping Quintana or Quinatna dropping Froome as Arcalis just ain't that hard of a climb (not a real HC climb), I think they will try to drop eachother but in the end will finish together give or take a couple of seconds either way.
Hells 500 Crew and 6 x Everester
Don Rd Launching Place
Melbourne Hill Rd Warrandyte
Colby Drive Belgrave South
William Rd The Patch
David Hill Rd Monbulk
Lakeside Drive Emerald https://www.everesting.cc/hall-of-fame/
I'm not expecting this to be decisive, as the Arcalis just doesn't look steep enough. The length should be telling, though, and will at least sort out the guys who will seriously contend for a top 6-7.
It will be interesting to see what Barguil does from here, as his legs clearly aren't quite there.
sutty68 wrote:
Would really like to see Sky let Thomas off the leash for once.
To do what exactly?
Hells 500 Crew and 6 x Everester
Don Rd Launching Place
Melbourne Hill Rd Warrandyte
Colby Drive Belgrave South
William Rd The Patch
David Hill Rd Monbulk
Lakeside Drive Emerald https://www.everesting.cc/hall-of-fame/
CountArach wrote:
I'm not expecting this to be decisive, as the Arcalis just doesn't look steep enough. The length should be telling, though, and will at least sort out the guys who will seriously contend for a top 6-7.
I've seen it as end increase twice in the tour and that destroyed Ullrich and Contador all.
sgdanny wrote:
Nice and Arcalis is a legendary mountain in the Tour de France, so that can only mean one thing?
Have to say Rolland looked great today managing to keep on for so long, so I have to assume he will do something today. Sky has shown they are trying to control the race, but not set the biggest pace either, so all about what Movistar will do
Don't know if there are other jokers, Pinot might go for the KoM and Caruso has been a solid rock, so hopefully he won't get water bottle assignments today and go for some glory (for once)
If im not mistaken, Arcalis has only be ridden 2 times, so its hardly a legend and hopefully it never will be a legend. Its a bit of a meh climb, but the run today i glorious.
Again, I will have to disagree on Rolland. He wasn't among the 14 best in the first group. After getting protected and not losing time, his performance was very disappointing. He should definitely be in that group.
I thought it was just a stage and not an entire one-day race 
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
