Skullsmasher wrote:
What the hell is up with this guy called Backofen? 70KL? 21y . Hasn't rode a top 20 in any mountain race at u23 or junior.... Ending behind pelotons..
Same for paret-peintre , its not cuz cyanide loves him that he rides results...
Backofen is at 67 MO in our DB, I´m sure you´re referring to the official Cyanide DB. I think that stat is well deserved, he did good on mountain stages last year. This year he hasn´t rode mountain stages really, but looking at things like the German Mountain Championships or generally ad his "Rad-Bundesliga" results he deserves what he´s got.
Paret-Peintre was nicely shown by Jorge. 68 MO 67 HI doesn´t seem too much for his previously shown performances.
pittaln wrote:
Amund Grondahl Jansen - Should be improved. Wins 2016:
- ZLM Roompot Tour
- Tour de Gironde (Genral, Mountain, Youth)
- U23 TT Norwegian Championship
Other results:
- 4th Ronde Van Vlaanderen Beloften (1.Ncup)
- 13th Tour de Romandie
- 13th Paris - Troyes
What would you suggest for Grondahl then in terms of stats? Do you have any rider he is comparable to in terms of abilities?
He has a pretty high flat stats in our current plans (70) to give him the ability of the attacks he wins often from. He´s not sprinting too good (despite the Normandie stage), so that we have him on 67/67 there, in addition a high RES for attacks (67) and decent back-ups (66 HI, 65 COB).
To be fair he often benefitted from having a strong (or the strongest) team in his results (f.e. ZLM_Roompot Tour). That´s why we see him more as the attacking rider or a leadout in sprints in terms of his abilities, which is shown in his current stats.
Tafiolmo wrote: Notice To give you guys a bit more feedback with what's going on here, don't expect a stats update till after the Tour at earliest, for the simple reason as most know, we have problems adapting the new PCM16 climbing stats to our DB. Not only are these not compatible with our current climbing stat matrix but have also raised big issues when even playing with the official DB as well.
Two options now remain 1) Cyanide release a fix patch or 2) We do our own fix to make everything compatible with our DB again. If we decide on the latter the good news is that it's actually going very well and Kentaurus has come up with a formula that is testing well and if continues to do so that will be our own fix and everything should work fine.
For those that don't know, the problem is centered around how dominant the mtn stat is now compared to the hill stat on all climbing terrain. For example the worst affected have been Ardennes type riders with low mtn like Gilbert and Gerrans etc who just can't perform anywhere near how they should do. Also the problem has affected some other types of riders as well.
So once the testing is finalized it will be ready to be implemented to the stats if needed.
pittaln wrote:
Amund Grondahl Jansen - Should be improved. Wins 2016:
- ZLM Roompot Tour
- Tour de Gironde (Genral, Mountain, Youth)
- U23 TT Norwegian Championship
Other results:
- 4th Ronde Van Vlaanderen Beloften (1.Ncup)
- 13th Tour de Romandie
- 13th Paris - Troyes
What would you suggest for Grondahl then in terms of stats? Do you have any rider he is comparable to in terms of abilities?
He has a pretty high flat stats in our current plans (70) to give him the ability of the attacks he wins often from. He´s not sprinting too good (despite the Normandie stage), so that we have him on 67/67 there, in addition a high RES for attacks (67) and decent back-ups (66 HI, 65 COB).
To be fair he often benefitted from having a strong (or the strongest) team in his results (f.e. ZLM_Roompot Tour). That´s why we see him more as the attacking rider or a leadout in sprints in terms of his abilities, which is shown in his current stats.
It was the U23 RR by the way...[/quote]
Sorry. The RR i correct.
I think of him like a classic breakaway rider. Hard to compare, but a hybrid between Kurt Asle Arvesen and Sven Erik Bystrøm. I like 70 FL. Maybe STA 70, FTR 75 (due to the 180km solo breakaway win in Tour de Gironde). Otherwise I don't think of him as a pure sprinter, climber, puncheur og TT.
Sorry. The RR i correct.
I think of him like a classic breakaway rider. Hard to compare, but a hybrid between Kurt Asle Arvesen and Sven Erik Bystrøm. I like 70 FL. Maybe STA 70, FTR 75 (due to the 180km solo breakaway win in Tour de Gironde). Otherwise I don't think of him as a pure sprinter, climber, puncheur og TT.
For me it looks like he´s not that often in breakaways (only according to points/KOM classifications on tours he races), so I wouldn´t take him too high - FTR has nothing to do with how successful a rider is in breaking away but I guess that it has an influence in the frequency...
To the Stamina I agree that he´s been good on the long breakaway, but we have to assume that it was a 1 time thing being good on a >200k stage. I would set him as 66, which is pretty good in comparison to riders with comparable age/stats. His other outstanding results were on shorter stages. Remember that on most races he will race in PCM stamina won´t have a big influence.
This is my opinion, maybe you will disagree, but here it goes.
I think Froome TT stats are overrated in the DB. His time trial stats doesn't match his performance. so maybe a 76 at max and and 75 on Prologue.
Quintana deserves 84 on moutain in my opinion, 75 on TT and Prologue, and Resistance and Endurance similar to Froome
Geraint Thomas mountain stat are too high, maybe a 77.
Primoz Roglic deserves better TT stats, 78 on TT and Prolugue
Even thought I am Portuguese, Rui Costa TT, doesn't match his latest performances so maybe a 74 should be right,
Ion Izaguirre and Pinot should be 77 on TT.
Sagan and Coquard deserves 80 Sprint.
Also Phillipe Gilbert, Tony Martin, Urán, Konig, Pozzovivo, Simon Gerrans, are overrated.
I think Froome TT stats are overrated in the DB. His time trial stats doesn't match his performance. so maybe a 76 at max and and 75 on Prologue.
So is he really not better than Contador, Nibali and worse than Pinot and Zakarin? I highly doubt so.
Quintana deserves 84 on moutain in my opinion, 75 on TT and Prologue, and Resistance and Endurance similar to Froome
He should get a higher mountain than Froome (as well as an absolutely overkill stat we don't use elsewhere than FTR!) based on what? His only good result in a flatish TT (still quite hilly) was at Route du Sud in front of Chavanel, Erviti, Demare and Coquard, all of them not worth more than low 70/high 60s. For the rest, his recovery is high enough to guarantee overperformances in 2nd/3rd week TTs. I see no need for him to have same Resistance and Endurance as Froome, especially since he can't sustain a successful attack as well as Froome does and his good performances are often in shorter stages (see Val Martello, Huez).
Geraint Thomas mountain stat are too high, maybe a 77.
Good luck making him win Paris - Nice and Algarve in front of the likes of Contador, Zakarin, Porte and all the others with 77.
Primoz Roglic deserves better TT stats, 78 on TT and Prolugue.
Right so does a stage win with much better conditions compared to the lieks of Jungels and Laengen grant him the same stat as Rohan Dennis?
Ion Izaguirre and Pinot should be 77 on TT.
Again, their recent results don't grant them such high stats, their other stats + 76 do the job.
Sagan and Coquard deserves 80 Sprint.
PCM has got 13 stats, Sagan has a better stat than Kittel in all of them by large amounts in most except sprint, which is why we don't put him on 80. We'll have to see if Coquard deserves the same as a rider like Bouhanni who won a lot more so far - even though I'm aware he got beaten a fair amount of times - for now we put him on 79 sp 80 acc.
Also Phillipe Gilbert, Tony Martin, Urán, Konig, Pozzovivo, Simon Gerrans, are overrated.
Would you mind explaining why they are overrated? I don't see the problem with most of them, considering you proved you don't look at stats completely and only partially.
these are really the most worthful ones, especially if there is a guy like you knowing the riders well - we have to thank for your suggestion + decent explanation, keep that coming :)
I wil give you the mos quick answer i can give,.
- Froome did the same time as Quintana in Romandie in a TT, and Pinot won it. Froome only won 11 seconds to Quintana on Tour last years. Prologue and finished 39th. And Quintana has been improving a lot, Why is he in top 10 of TT?
- Thomas only won 2 races on WT. Paris Nice(by 4 seconds) and E3 Harelbeke. Tony Martin also won the Paris Nice and Volta ao Algarve. How are his mountain stats?
- So Roglic just happen to win it by mistake? Or you need more proofs that we can win more TT in WT?
- Try simulate the Tour 20 times and see if Quintana wins at least one time in game. He doesn't. So the AI doesn't work like that, and that attibutes matters. Quintana can only sustain attacks on the third week? Maybe is when the others Team Sky riders canno't help Froome no longer...
- The other things I said, are based on results from the last 2 years, So if that time is not enought, Bradley Wiggins sould be able to win the Tour in PCM...
- The other thing, watch the Tour and we will see who is right.
jpgm97 wrote:
I wil give you the mos quick answer i can give,.
- Froome did the same time as Quintana in Romandie in a TT, and Pinot won it. Froome only won 11 seconds to Quintana on Tour last years. Prologue and finished 39th. And Quintana has been improving a lot, Why is he in top 10 of TT?
- Thomas only won 2 races on WT. Paris Nice(by 4 seconds) and E3 Harelbeke. Tony Martin also won the Paris Nice and Volta ao Algarve. How are his mountain stats?
- So Roglic just happen to win it by mistake? Or you need more proofs that we can win more TT in WT?
- Try simulate the Tour 20 times and see if Quintana wins at least one time in game. He doesn't. So the AI doesn't work like that, and that attibutes matters. Quintana can only sustain attacks on the third week? Maybe is when the others Team Sky riders canno't help Froome no longer...
- The other things I said, are based on results from the last 2 years, So if that time is not enought, Bradley Wiggins sould be able to win the Tour in PCM...
- The other thing, watch the Tour and we will see who is right.
-Well, prove that Quintana has improved in TT...
-Thomas won Paris Nice in 2016, Tony won it in 2011, due to a very impressive ITT and due to P-N only being hilly.
-If all riders would've had the same surface conditions, Roglic wouldn't have won. He had a dry track, whlst Jungels and others had a wet road. Especially with the downhilly, they had to make, that's a huge difference.
-The db team knows how the stats work. Trust me, they know their shit. Quintana wins the Tour almost every time for me, unless some really OP rider comes along after 1-2 seasons. This year, PCM got alot more random with the daily form being so impactful, that you can even win a GT with 79 MO.
-Like Matt said, Sagan is so OP in all other stats, that he will arrive at the finish with much more energy left than the other sprinters and hence can still compete.
-Coquard hasn't shown much, besides this Tour.
-Pinot and Izaguirre may had had good ITTs, but that's why Pinot's stst was highered already.
-Gilbert got lowered, and if not hurt, would've probably gone well in the classics this season.
-Gerrans also had much bad luck, so he couldn't prove his strengh.
-Uran already got lowered
-Pozzovivo could maybe get lowered, but he is already declining anyways.
-König got a top 10 in the Tour and was then forced to work for Froome/Landa/Porte, so he isn't allowed to go for himself
-Tony has worked the last year on finding a new, better ITT position. Hence his ITT trouble. His stats got already lowered anyways. He's still a big helper in the ardennes and did well in the cobbled classics. His PRL stat is lower than the one of the other TT guys, so how is he overrated?
jpgm97 wrote:
I wil give you the mos quick answer i can give,.
- Froome did the same time as Quintana in Romandie in a TT, and Pinot won it. Froome only won 11 seconds to Quintana on Tour last years. Prologue and finished 39th. And Quintana has been improving a lot, Why is he in top 10 of TT?
- Thomas only won 2 races on WT. Paris Nice(by 4 seconds) and E3 Harelbeke. Tony Martin also won the Paris Nice and Volta ao Algarve. How are his mountain stats?
- So Roglic just happen to win it by mistake? Or you need more proofs that we can win more TT in WT?
- Try simulate the Tour 20 times and see if Quintana wins at least one time in game. He doesn't. So the AI doesn't work like that, and that attibutes matters. Quintana can only sustain attacks on the third week? Maybe is when the others Team Sky riders canno't help Froome no longer...
- The other things I said, are based on results from the last 2 years, So if that time is not enought, Bradley Wiggins sould be able to win the Tour in PCM...
- The other thing, watch the Tour and we will see who is right.
Just to let you know, im in season 4 in be a pro and Quintana has won TDF 2times...
The overall meaning of Matt's explanation is that there are so-called backup stats (STA, RES, REC), which in most of the cases you describe are helping the riders to achieve the results they have irl. This is far more effective than just upgrading their ability stats (MO, HI, TT, etc), which would only result in these riders becoming top contenders in races where they wouldn't be able to win irl.
About the likes of Roglic and Coquard: have you seen concrete results that are similar to the riders that currently have the stats you're proposing for them (Coquard compared to Bouhanni for example)?
For a stage racer, how important is the stamina stat? I understand all stats in PCM, but never learnd how much inpact the stamina stats has for stage racers in like TDF, Vuelta, Giro etc...
jpgm97 wrote:
I wil give you the mos quick answer i can give,.
- Froome did the same time as Quintana in Romandie in a TT, and Pinot won it. Froome only won 11 seconds to Quintana on Tour last years. Prologue and finished 39th. And Quintana has been improving a lot, Why is he in top 10 of TT?
- Thomas only won 2 races on WT. Paris Nice(by 4 seconds) and E3 Harelbeke. Tony Martin also won the Paris Nice and Volta ao Algarve. How are his mountain stats?
- So Roglic just happen to win it by mistake? Or you need more proofs that we can win more TT in WT?
- Try simulate the Tour 20 times and see if Quintana wins at least one time in game. He doesn't. So the AI doesn't work like that, and that attibutes matters. Quintana can only sustain attacks on the third week? Maybe is when the others Team Sky riders canno't help Froome no longer...
- The other things I said, are based on results from the last 2 years, So if that time is not enought, Bradley Wiggins sould be able to win the Tour in PCM...
- The other thing, watch the Tour and we will see who is right.
-Well, prove that Quintana has improved in TT...
-Thomas won Paris Nice in 2016, Tony won it in 2011, due to a very impressive ITT and due to P-N only being hilly.
-If all riders would've had the same surface conditions, Roglic wouldn't have won. He had a dry track, whlst Jungels and others had a wet road. Especially with the downhilly, they had to make, that's a huge difference.
-The db team knows how the stats work. Trust me, they know their shit. Quintana wins the Tour almost every time for me, unless some really OP rider comes along after 1-2 seasons. This year, PCM got alot more random with the daily form being so impactful, that you can even win a GT with 79 MO.
-Like Matt said, Sagan is so OP in all other stats, that he will arrive at the finish with much more energy left than the other sprinters and hence can still compete.
-Coquard hasn't shown much, besides this Tour.
-Pinot and Izaguirre may had had good ITTs, but that's why Pinot's stst was highered already.
-Gilbert got lowered, and if not hurt, would've probably gone well in the classics this season.
-Gerrans also had much bad luck, so he couldn't prove his strengh.
-Uran already got lowered
-Pozzovivo could maybe get lowered, but he is already declining anyways.
-König got a top 10 in the Tour and was then forced to work for Froome/Landa/Porte, so he isn't allowed to go for himself
-Tony has worked the last year on finding a new, better ITT position. Hence his ITT trouble. His stats got already lowered anyways. He's still a big helper in the ardennes and did well in the cobbled classics. His PRL stat is lower than the one of the other TT guys, so how is he overrated?
If Route du Sud is not enought, Quintana did 6th on Vuelta ITT last year. This year won 10 seconds to Froome on Romandie prologue and did the same time on the other ITT.
Coquard is the sprinter with more victories this season...
So Roglic Prologue doesn't count?
I understand Sagan stats but I don't see him in the game doing top 3 in a flat stage in the first week or winning the Green Jersey, like in real life.
And in my game the only time i saw Quintana winning the Tour, was when Froome droped out.
Froome did the same time as Quintana in Romandie in a TT, and Pinot won it. Froome only won 11 seconds to Quintana on Tour last years. Prologue and finished 39th. And Quintana has been improving a lot, Why is he in top 10 of TT?
Are you maybe forgetting how hilly that TT was? Because 4.5 kms/15 were uphill, and about 6 downhill, a speciality in which Froome doesn't excel.
Thomas only won 2 races on WT. Paris Nice(by 4 seconds) and E3 Harelbeke. Tony Martin also won the Paris Nice and Volta ao Algarve. How are his mountain stats?
That's not a comparison I do accept, you can't compare Paris Nice 2011 with Paris Nice 2016. Go look at those routes first and then come back at me. Thomas is one of Froome's main assets in his mountain train as well, and was 4th in the TDF ranking until the last few stages last year. If you watched the Tour last year you'd certainly agree with me how he deserves way more than 77 for his efforts, considering he's not backed by the toppest of accelerations.
So Roglic just happen to win it by mistake? Or you need more proofs that we can win more TT in WT?
Winning by mistake and doing that under different weather conditions than Jungels and Dumoulin are 2 different things, and even winning one only Time Trial wouldn't justify the same stat as way more consistent riders such as Dennis and Dowsett.
Try simulate the Tour 20 times and see if Quintana wins at least one time in game. He doesn't. So the AI doesn't work like that, and that attibutes matters. Quintana can only sustain attacks on the third week? Maybe is when the others Team Sky riders canno't help Froome no longer...
Strangely enough, while Quintana hasn't won a Tour yet I'll remind you, I can easily see him win a Tour. I would really like to see you simulating the Tour 20 times and not seeing Quintana win at least 4/5 times.
The other things I said, are based on results from the last 2 years, So if that time is not enought, Bradley Wiggins sould be able to win the Tour in PCM...
Pozzovivo has been heavily downgraded after the Giro, just as an example, Gilbert's and Gerrans' stats are too low for PCM 16 engine, and both have been doing well this season, sure, not 2014 level, but still enough to grant them higher stats than the likes of Dani Moreno if you know what I mean. As for Tony Martin, don't let yourself be fooled by his high Time Trial, he really is not the best time trialist in game because of his lower PRL which counts just as much in game considering how many more shorter time trials are there in comparison to > 20 km ones, and how many are heavily hilly. Uran has also been downgraded after the Giro, and Konig is a rider that is key inside of Sky's mountain train, and who will not lead any race, and thanks to his low acceleration and average hill, he will do just that, sit and slave for Froome.
The other thing, watch the Tour and we will see who is right.
No one can predict the future, our job is to act with regard to what happened in races that already took place, instead of trying to see what will happen. Which is why we waited some time before giving higher stats to the likes of Gaviria and Ewan, who then proved themselves and earned them.
Long time reader of pcmdaily, and thought I would ask what the eminent database writers think of young Norwegian sprinter Sondre Holst Enger. For a 22 year old with no lead out train I am stunned at how well he has performed this far in the tour.
I simulated the Tour 10 times, because I had nothng better to do and Froome won 7 times, Contador 2 and Nibali 1...
You keep talking of the TT were was raining, and I talk about the Prologue and you don't answer...
So if Thomas desearves 79 Mountain, so why the only WT race with mountains or hills whe won was Paris Nice this year? And even that, he almost lost, and he would lose if he hadn't help from Henao in the end, because he couldn't follow Contador, and because the ending was dowhilling and then flat.
Edited by jpgm97 on 26-07-2016 21:26
