By far the most anticipated race once again. For one month, Ill turn into a July-fan and try to pay as little attention to the rest of the world as I possible can. Tour de Pologne - is it speedway?
G will have a little bigger role than last year. Their plan B. Imagine the outcry once he podiums
Quintana is my favourite, but Froome v Contador in Dauphine in the weekend will tell a lot. And how about outsiders such as Aru, Pinot and Porte?
Is TJ up to it? I don't think so. I think Porte is much more likely to upset the big guns. BMC has a super strong team, GVA will hunt stages like a mad man. Stage 2 is a good bet or the stages to Revel and Bern.
Nibali has won the Giro 2016 and I really hope that he rides the Tour not only for training towards Olympics. A underrated aspect is the fact that Contador has tried 2 times and when Contador crashed out in 2014, Nibali's win was asterisked and diminished because 'Contador would've won easily'. Who knows.
Valverde is 100% helper. The question on Movistar's final selection is basically wether to pick Ion Izagirre and go ALL OUT on the Sueño Amarillo. Interesting stuff.
Quintana rides Route du Sud, starting 16th of June. A short ITT and a MTF should tell us a little about him, but hardly something that either increases or decreases the probabilities of him winning.
The French are coming: Pinot, Bardet, Barguil, Rolland, Vuillermoz, Balaphilippe, Gallopin, Coquard, Bouhanni and Demare. I say 7 stage wins and 3 in top-10. Incredible talents they suddenly have. Will a French win on Ventoux on Bastille? I don't think so.
I like the route. The best climber will win. The ITT's are geared towards the big funs winning, its too hard for Cancellara and Martin IMO. Especially the last one, obviously. Look out for stage 9 to Andorra early on - its a super hard approach to Arcalis compared to 2009. 12 and 17 are the hardest finishes - Ventoux and Forclaz + Emosson are extremely hard. Don't underestimate stages 5 and 15 and the the Pyrenees. I could live without stage 19, seems poorly designed and a slight overkill. Ramaz + Joux Plane could prove epic if it isn't over (which I think it will at that point).
Who are likely to surprise? Bardet top-5 I say. Barguil top-8 and a stage win. Disappoint? Froome. Landa may prove better in the mountains.
MOVISTAR: Nairo, Valverde, Anacona, Moreno, G. Izagirre, Castroviejo, Jesus Herrada, Erviti and Ventoso/Oliveira/I Izagirre.
I think Porte will fly on the first few mountain stages. Tejay falls off just a little but he is then behind Porte so he starts pacing for him. Porte then has his day of terror and loses 15 minutes, and BMC don't get even a top 10 out of this TDF. My prediction.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
I don't know about that, the Tour gets overhyped every year and the way it's raced lends itself to being less entertaining than other races
Hells 500 Crew and 6 x Everester
Don Rd Launching Place
Melbourne Hill Rd Warrandyte
Colby Drive Belgrave South
William Rd The Patch
David Hill Rd Monbulk
Lakeside Drive Emerald https://www.everesting.cc/hall-of-fame/
Also, on paper, isn't this Tour the one with most GC-contenders? Like, even those who went to the Giro (Valv, Nibali, Majka and Landa) are here. Chaves is the best stager racer MIA, pretty insane.
AbhishekLFC wrote:
Interested to know who's been voted for as the "Other' votes. Nibali?
Nibali is the most probable I'd say, but TJ and G. Thomas are also outsiders, altho much more unlikely to win than Aru or Pinot fx. But the sum of 'any other' is greater than Pinot, Aru and Porte respectively by a pretty much margin in terms of probability to win, so its not surprising really with that mindset.
Updated the 4 big GC-teams in the first post; we can speculate all we want and I've done that. Any suggestions/news are very welcome, I don't know if I got it right.
Riis123 wrote:
BMC also added. Please enlighten me, I really have no clue about how their team will look.
I can tell you how they look after the Tour: DNF, DNF, DNF, DNF, stage winner GVA...
Lulz.
If ASO had made a better route for the punchers like the last couple of years, that would be somewhat plausible. This year, not so much... the DNF's are obviously highly probable tho
