Definitely shaping up as one of the most open Euros i've know. Germany are WC's and their squad is a lot the same and they have players who've been having great seasons. Spain are always full of quality and can't be ignored. France are undergoing a big revolution in players and are the strongest they've been since 1998-2000. Italy are still full of quality. England are stronger than usual with more form players than ever. Belgium have tons of skill if their players can turn on the flair.
Don't overlook Switzerland who are always underrated. Ukraine and Poland are worth watching in Group C. Turkey i like and could be outsiders. Sweden with Zlatan you can't ignore. Portugal have Ronaldo who can win matches like no-one else in Europe.
Basically don't put money on Austria, Iceland, Hungary, Ireland, Croatia Czech, N. Ireland, Russia, Solvakia, Romania or Albania. But anyone else could really win...
Well, I don't have any clue of anything in this tournament. Where should I place my money?
Favourites - Germany & France
2nd Favourites - Spain, Italy, Belgium,
Dark Horses - England, Portugal, Croatia,
Everyone else is probably looking at a quarter final place at best.
I don't think Germany will win this time around. The squad has become significantly worse since '14 in my opinion, and there's too many unreliable players.
They have a strong defensive core with Neuer and Hummels plus Boateng at CB, but they massively lack strong full backs. If they manage to successfully establish a 3-5-2 or 3-6-1, which Löw has experimented with in the past, that might work.
Kroos and Özil are world class midfielders on paper, but especially Özil has struggled to perform well for the national team. If they do, though, and if Khedira is in good form, the CM looks good.
My bet would be on Spain or France, the biggest surprise in my opinion is going to be Austria, semi finals are very well possible and I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Portugal in the group stages to win their group.
But then again, @Riis, maybe you shouldn't bet at all and instead acknowledge that you have a gambling problem and seek help
It comes down to if the quality of the teams reflect the odds, ie. value if underrated. And since its much, much easier to determine in football (you simply just moderate the odds to match the other 1000 bookmakers who offer bets on such a big tournament, for the most part) than in cycling (much lesser market - easier to find value), I think its very hard to make money consistent on such a big market and considering I know jackshit.... unless I am incredibly lucky.
I guess Ill have to bet on myself to be extremely lucky. One thing is for sure, it will be much more enjoyable to watch the games when money are at stake.
I didn't actually notice Austria.. they are at 41,00, so the bookmakers definitely acknowledge them as outsiders, longshot outsiders. Seems interesting
Riis123 wrote:
I didn't actually notice Austria.. they are at 41,00, so the bookmakers definitely acknowledge them as outsiders, longshot outsiders. Seems interesting
Austria won't win. Their best player is Alaba who is a centre back but plays centre midfield for Austria because they've got no-one else any good to play there. Who is going to score their goals?
If you want an outsider then pick a decent team with a very good striker.
Portugal - Ronaldo
Sweden - Ibrahimavic
Poland - Lewandowski
I would say Wales with Bale but I just don't think the rest of the team is good enough to keep clean sheets at that level.
Riis123 wrote:
I didn't actually notice Austria.. they are at 41,00, so the bookmakers definitely acknowledge them as outsiders, longshot outsiders. Seems interesting
Austria won't win. Their best player is Alaba who is a centre back but plays centre midfield for Austria because they've got no-one else any good to play there. Who is going to score their goals?
Alaba plays CM because that's his preferred position, and if you have a player that can have as much of an impact as Alaba, you want him to be the center of your team (not at LB, which is his actual position. He only plays CB when absolutely necessary or in a 3 player defense at Bayern).
Also, the team may have only that one star, but they're pretty solid overall. Fuchs, Junuzovic, Arnautovic, Dragovic (!!) aren't world class, but they're experienced and function well in a good team. Plus they seem to have a great team spirit and a good coach. You don't go 9-1-0 in the qualifiers by accident, even if it's "only" against Sweden and Russia.
I would class Italy as outsiders although they probably won't be great odds. They don't have the best of squads but they are always solid and always turn up to tournaments (Last world cup excepting )
They fact that 3 teams can qualify may also be a very big factor. A team can have a crap start and still go far. In the WC a defeat in your first game means you are out 90% of the time. You can qualify from the group with 1 win and two defeats here. It might open the group stage up a bit with more teams happy to go for a win at the risk of a defeat.
Varane is a doubt for France. Could be a blow to their hopes if they have to rely on Mangala. They've already lost Sakho so defence could become a problem for them.
Riis123 wrote:
Squire, you need to guide me through on this one!
EC is super different to WC. Im always hyped for the Worlds, but EC has always seemed a little lacklustre to me.
Always cheered for the South Americans, particular Columbia and Uruguay in the past, and also Brazil obviously. I have no clue of who to support either.
Well, I don't have any clue of anything in this tournament. Where should I place my money?
On cycling
But seriously, football is the worst market for betting. Half the world bets on football, there are decades of statistical data, and the bookies are experts at setting the right odds.
If I was to go for a longshot winner, I'd pick Croatia. Usually solid in tournaments, great players, but the manager could be a weak point. And a lot of the usual heavy hitters are weak at the moment, especially Italy and Spain, and there's no Netherlands. But in the end one of the favourites will probably win it. My money are going nowhere near football!
We are already at that point where we predict who to win?
This euro is pretty open, of course it has France written as winner all over it, but if they fail to meet the expectations I don't see someone being a clear second. Germany? Many players in the squad still looking for their form.
Italy? Worst Squad since ages
Spain? Many teams are knowing now how to defend their tactics
Belgium? Their offense is top class but since Kompanys injury they're lacking good defenders.
Portugal? All depends on Ronaldo's Form
Netherlands? Oh
And England is England. They can come far but disappoint in the most important moments.
On the look for outsiders I'd look closer to Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic and Poland.
Not sure about Croatia. They seem to be a bit weak with their nerves the last years, same with Turkey.
Losing at home to Slovakia two days after Slovakia last played. I don't really watch Germany that closely but having lost at home to England a couple of months ago are they really that bad?
Euro Friendly Updates over the last weekend
Slovakia 3 -1 Georgia
Croatia 1 - 0 Moldova
Czech Rep 6 - 0 Malta
England 2 - 1 Australia
Northern Ireland 3 - 0 Belarus
Rep. Ireland 1 - 1 Holland
Switzerland 1 - 2 Belgium
Germany 1 - 3 Slovakia
Albania 3 - 1 Qatar
Spain 3 - 1 Bosnia
Romania 3 - 4 Ukraine
Turkey 1 - 0 Montenegro
Italy 1 - 0 Scotland
Portugal 3 - 0 Norway
None of Ozil, Reus, Hummels, Kroos, Muller, Neuer played. WOuldn't be too worried about the results of their b team. Plus the field conditions were disastrous in the second half.
Wasn't that impressed with Germany when they played England actually. After going 1-0 up they played fairly poorly, and only got a second because our keeper Butland tore his ankle ligaments and couldn't save a long shot.
Once we equalized they folded pretty easily, especially their defending and marking was poor with two goals from corners and one from a near-post cross.
Hello everyone, I created an account just to comment on this post. I've recently become a fan of cycling but i've been a football fan for ages. So I'd like to share my opinion with you all.
Firstly, I'll let you know that i'm portuguese, but that won't influence my analysis.
Now, for the actual thing: My favourites are (I will explain why):
Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and maybe England.
Outsiders: Croatia, Austria, Turkey and Poland.
Everyone else can only expect to arrive at the quarter-finals at best. ( Let's not forget that for the first time ever there will be a round of 16).
Croatia has a real good shot at the title combining experience with talent. They have the veteran srna in their defence, goalscorer mandzukic and kalinic on attack. But their strong point is the middlefield. Modric, Rakitic and Kovacic. Since they will have srna commanding their defence and that middlefield serving mandzukic, they have a real shot at the title. Key player: Modric.
Austria: this team has a great team spirit backed with some talent from wonder boy Alaba and Arnautovic. They dont have much speed on attack but Marc Janko's 1m96 will definitly be a threat. Key player: Alaba
Turkey: who doesn't remeber turkey's euro 2008 campaign? They qualified to euro2016 with a 90 minute free kick goal but despite that, they have a really strong team, even stronger than Austria's. They play better when cornered. Key player: Çalhanoglu.
Poland: Oh well, Poland. What is there to say? They have 3 able keepers but the starter will be Szczesny. Their defence is rather week but they have Piszczek to remediate things. Krychowiak has to be on top form if they want to succeed.
Then, they have Lewandowski and Milik in attack. Two goalscoring machines.
Key player: Lewandowski.
England: England is a really fun team to watch in this type of tournaments. And as a portugues I can tell that they aren't that good at penalty scoring which can be crucial in an Euro. They always have great teams and I risk to say that this team is better than their golden generation, from the team spirit point of view.
They have a real chance, if hogdson leaves Rooney out and if kane and vardy are on top form. Key player: Harry Kane.
Germany: This guys are always favourites, whatever happens. They just haven't found a leader yet, after klose, mertesacker and lahm went in to retirement. When they, do they will be unstoppable. Butm if that doesn't happen soon, they wont win this EURO. Key player: Marco Reus.
France: The coach left Benzema out, that reduces their chances in this tournament as well has varane's injury. I chose them as favourites because they will be playing home, otherwise I wouldn't because their defence without varane is really weak. Plus, Mathieu got injured too. They have a strong middlefield and that might be the key to have a successful campaing. With griezman on attack every thing can happen. Key player: Paul Pogba.
Spain: They're back with their great performances from 2012. Their front line is rather week and Vincente left some good players out. They have an imperial middlefield and a solid defence. Carvajal injury is a major set-back and they will have to overcome it if they want to win.
Key Player: Iniesta.
Italy: Seriously, I dont even know why I picked them. Without Verrati and Marchisio they have a weak middlefield. They can only trust in juventus' trio, Bonnuci, Barzagli and Chiellini, and of course Buffon. If they manage to keep clean sheets, they can try to score from corners or free kicks, because without ballotelli it will prove difficult to score. They are really strong in the air, and that is the key to win games with this team.
Buffon will have a major role commanding the team from behind the back line that's why I chose him as the key player for this team.
Portugal: Key Player: Cristiano Ronaldo.
Now, from what I've read here and on other forums, people think that Portugal = Ronaldo. I wont lie, since 2006 it has been like that. But since the 2014 WC ( which sucked for us), Portugal has undergone major changes. We changed the coach and he bet on the young ones to take this team foward. They have helped us a great deal and I can say for sure that this team is on the same level as the 2004's team (figo, maniche, costinha...). Portugal proved yesterday that they can play without ronaldo. 3-0 against norway. Quaresma was the man of the match and he has proven to be a secret weapon during the qualifiers. Of course everything revolves around ronaldo but the ace to win this euro will be Joao Mario, mark my words. As a portuguese i've never once said that we could win an EURO or a WC but this time, I dont know why, I feel confident. The major change is: Before Ronaldo was the core of this team. Right now, he is a PLUS, because we have a solid team overall and great team spirit. The only real problem is the speed of our center backs. ( carvalho, pepe, fonte, bruno alves). They are all over 30 years old and it was easy to notice this weakness agains Norway, imagine if it was against spain or germany... If the Fernando Santos manages to find a solution, Portugal will be my main favourites to win this EURO together with Spain.
Arkadiusz wrote:
Hello everyone, I created an account just to comment on this post. I've recently become a fan of cycling but i've been a football fan for ages. So I'd like to share my opinion with you all. Firstly, I'll let you know that i'm portuguese, but that won't influence my analysis.
Now, for the actual thing: My favourites are (I will explain why):
Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and maybe England.
Outsiders: Croatia, Austria, Turkey and Poland.
Everyone else can only expect to arrive at the quarter-finals at best. ( Let's not forget that for the first time ever there will be a round of 16).
Croatia has a real good shot at the title combining experience with talent. They have the veteran srna in their defence, goalscorer mandzukic and kalinic on attack. But their strong point is the middlefield. Modric, Rakitic and Kovacic. Since they will have srna commanding their defence and that middlefield serving mandzukic, they have a real shot at the title. Key player: Modric.
Austria: this team has a great team spirit backed with some talent from wonder boy Alaba and Arnautovic. They dont have much speed on attack but Marc Janko's 1m96 will definitly be a threat. Key player: Alaba
Turkey: who doesn't remeber turkey's euro 2008 campaign? They qualified to euro2016 with a 90 minute free kick goal but despite that, they have a really strong team, even stronger than Austria's. They play better when cornered. Key player: Çalhanoglu.
Poland: Oh well, Poland. What is there to say? They have 3 able keepers but the starter will be Szczesny. Their defence is rather week but they have Piszczek to remediate things. Krychowiak has to be on top form if they want to succeed.
Then, they have Lewandowski and Milik in attack. Two goalscoring machines.
Key player: Lewandowski.
England: England is a really fun team to watch in this type of tournaments. And as a portugues I can tell that they aren't that good at penalty scoring which can be crucial in an Euro. They always have great teams and I risk to say that this team is better than their golden generation, from the team spirit point of view.
They have a real chance, if hogdson leaves Rooney out and if kane and vardy are on top form. Key player: Harry Kane.
Germany: This guys are always favourites, whatever happens. They just haven't found a leader yet, after klose, mertesacker and lahm went in to retirement. When they, do they will be unstoppable. Butm if that doesn't happen soon, they wont win this EURO. Key player: Marco Reus.
France: The coach left Benzema out, that reduces their chances in this tournament as well has varane's injury. I chose them as favourites because they will be playing home, otherwise I wouldn't because their defence without varane is really weak. Plus, Mathieu got injured too. They have a strong middlefield and that might be the key to have a successful campaing. With griezman on attack every thing can happen. Key player: Paul Pogba.
Spain: They're back with their great performances from 2012. Their front line is rather week and Vincente left some good players out. They have an imperial middlefield and a solid defence. Carvajal injury is a major set-back and they will have to overcome it if they want to win.
Key Player: Iniesta.
Italy: Seriously, I dont even know why I picked them. Without Verrati and Marchisio they have a weak middlefield. They can only trust in juventus' trio, Bonnuci, Barzagli and Chiellini, and of course Buffon. If they manage to keep clean sheets, they can try to score from corners or free kicks, because without ballotelli it will prove difficult to score. They are really strong in the air, and that is the key to win games with this team.
Buffon will have a major role commanding the team from behind the back line that's why I chose him as the key player for this team.
Portugal: Key Player: Cristiano Ronaldo.
Now, from what I've read here and on other forums, people think that Portugal = Ronaldo. I wont lie, since 2006 it has been like that. But since the 2014 WC ( which sucked for us), Portugal has undergone major changes. We changed the coach and he bet on the young ones to take this team foward. They have helped us a great deal and I can say for sure that this team is on the same level as the 2004's team (figo, maniche, costinha...). Portugal proved yesterday that they can play without ronaldo. 3-0 against norway. Quaresma was the man of the match and he has proven to be a secret weapon during the qualifiers. Of course everything revolves around ronaldo but the ace to win this euro will be Joao Mario, mark my words. As a portuguese i've never once said that we could win an EURO or a WC but this time, I dont know why, I feel confident. The major change is: Before Ronaldo was the core of this team. Right now, he is a PLUS, because we have a solid team overall and great team spirit. The only real problem is the speed of our center backs. ( carvalho, pepe, fonte, bruno alves). They are all over 30 years old and it was easy to notice this weakness agains Norway, imagine if it was against spain or germany... If the Fernando Santos manages to find a solution, Portugal will be my main favourites to win this EURO together with Spain.
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
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