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PCMdaily DB Stat Discussion - PCM15
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 20:48
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| kodman |
Posted on 14-12-2015 00:14
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Thanks Matt, I'm glad to see that'll be worked on. If you'd like, I'd be more than willing to go thru the elite-2 riders a bit more and PM you a list of riders to remove and some suggestions of riders to add. |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 14-12-2015 08:17
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That would be appreciated, if you feel like helping why not, you're more than welcome to do so 
Thanks in advance.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 14-12-2015 17:40
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kodman wrote:
Hey Tafiolmo, have you thought about perhaps updating the Elite-2 riders in the DB? I get that you might have a lot on your plate DB wise, but some change in that aspect might be nice for the EP for 2016. I've done a "quick" search in that aspect, and it seems there are around 100 or so riders that are no longer active riders (Haven't raced even in amateur races in 2-3 years or so). Perhaps adding some obscure pros from smaller countries and top amateur riders from bigger countries could be possible, although getting reliable info on the riders could be a tall task. It's a smaller detail, and I remember a EP a year ago went thru and updated the elite-2 riders, but it would be nice to see another update in that respect.
This sounds great Kodman and I'm still yet to get around to doing free agents and seeing who's active and who's not. Also any new riders would be great as well.
You can send the list to me or to Matt, but if you send to Matt he will send it to me anyway. |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 18-12-2015 12:14
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So guys Tafiolmo is doing a terrific job with stats! He's already done with the WT and I believe he's 99% through PCT. However, one little doubt rised up while we were discussing some of the top stats: what TT to give to Froome?
Considering that he couldn't take part to any long TT throughout the last 2 years and in the same period he hasn't been that brilliant compared to other GT contenders, we were considering lowering it to 77, and possibly lowering Contador to 76 to make differences between them even smaller, but we aren't sure about that either. I tend to prefer leaving all as it is and so is Tafiolmo (Froome on 78, Bertie on 77) but we see the point of who suggested lowering it.
Remember that Froome's Resistance (that will have an effect on the TT stat as well) is higher than Contador's by 2 points (77 vs 75), while his Recovery is 2 points lower (78 vs 80). This will mean that if the TDF has a TT in the 3rd week, Froome will beat Contador most of the time by a very slight margin - and considering PCM's randomness, most of the time means 51% of the time, because of those stats, as well as their different Prologue (Froome has 76; Conty 75, remember Prologue counts until the 18th kilometer of a Time Trial). The same applies if we decide to deduct 1 point to both's TT, except that differences will be smaller (in PCM differences between 78 and 77 are bigger than those between 77 and 76. In TTs however that will be virtually unnoticeable. This would also mean Nibali and Contador will have the same TT stat, which I don't really like to be honest, given that the Italian has better REC and it's meant to be so to make differences smaller in 3rd week while Contador has got a higher RES and STA by 1 point).
On the other hand, decreasing Froome's TT to 77 would make him stronger than the Spaniard in a normal TT but would make the results in a 3rd week TT more random. This would basically produce results that will look similar to real life (not that the 1st option won't, it's just that we are basing ourselves off 2013 and 2012 as well with that one) where Froome and Contador mostly battled it out in the last 2 years if we don't count the Dauphiné 2014 prologue and some other hilly time trials like Romandie's, which he won in front of Tony Martin.
Would like to hear some arguments about that  Thanks in advance!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 18-12-2015 12:24
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I think Froome has showed no signs of decline from his 2013 Tour win till his 2015 Tour win. I would put him 2-3 points above Contador, who's obviously not the great time trialist he once was. I would put Froome at 78 and Contador at 75.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 18-12-2015 12:39
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Ollfardh wrote:
I think Froome has showed no signs of decline from his 2013 Tour win till his 2015 Tour win. I would put him 2-3 points above Contador, who's obviously not the great time trialist he once was. I would put Froome at 78 and Contador at 75.
Don't forget about the Daily stats matrix though, as well as how stats work in PCM. Also I think you might have overlooked 5 or 6 of Contador's TT results in the last 2 years.
75 would put him level with Durbridge and Vorobyev etc., 1 point below Nibali, Talansky, Kelderman, Van Garderen and so on, 2 below Castroviejo, Uran, Spilak and so on. I do not think these results would justify such a downgrade:
Without counting 3 or 4 times when he beat Froome head 2 head
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 18-12-2015 12:50
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Well, some of those were hilly or mountain, where Contador would have an edge over the rest. I do believe he's on par with Kelderman, Jungels, Sanchez, looking at those results. So I'm not sure how much you're giving these guys, but I think he should be equal. His MO/Hill will give him the advantage in non-flat time trials and his REC should give him the advantage in a 3rd week GT TT.
But maybe you're right, the first thing that popped into my mind when talking about Contador's TTing is Martin overtaking him in the worlds.
The problem with rating Froome is that there's a huge difference between Froome in shape and Froome building shape. He can be so bad in the early parts of the season and destroy everyone in his season goals. Contador has that way less, even in a February race, Contador is likely to win. Unfortunately there's no way to add a "form sensitivity" stat.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 18-12-2015 12:56
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The problem with rating Froome is that there's a huge difference between Froome in shape and Froome building shape. He can be so bad in the early parts of the season and destroy everyone in his season goals. Contador has that way less, even in a February race, Contador is likely to win. Unfortunately there's no way to add a "form sensitivity" stat.
Yes I believe this is the major issue too, hence why I wouldn't want to see a 3 stat or even a 2 stat difference between the two of them.
All considered, maybe the best solution would be downgrading both to 77 and 76 respectively, although there are some issues with that as well. After all you can never get it perfect, but I reckon that in that way both would get more similar results to real life, also given the rest of their stats.
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| Thatguyeveryonehates |
Posted on 18-12-2015 13:23
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Ollfardh wrote:Unfortunately there's no way to add a "form sensitivity" stat.
That would be wonderful. Valverde would have 85, Andy Schleck 50. |
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 18-12-2015 13:28
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you mean Andy Schleck? The one that isn't featured in the db, because he retired.
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| Forever the Best |
Posted on 18-12-2015 17:29
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About Nibali:https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/T..._Perigueux
Plus:https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/T..._1_Utrecht (where Nibali beats both Froome and Contador)
I think Nibali doesn't deserve a lower TT stat than Contador but I might be wrong
Also what is Nibali's prologue?
Also in my opinion Uran can be 1 higher than Contador.
Froome shouldn't be 1 point more than Contador in TT and prologue. |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 18-12-2015 18:42
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It's kind of been decided that Froome will be 77 with Contador, Nibali and Uran to be 76 TT.
Without giving too much away, its even now being discussed that even 81 might be too high for the best TT riders with 80 possibly being the max (still being discussed even though it might affect the matrix too much, so will probably have to go with the usual higher stats there, even though 80 would've been interesting) as 2015 proved there are so many surprise results in TT's in general. Also I'm working on trying to put greater diversity between the top TT riders with their TT and Prl stats, as the prl stat plays an important role upto 18kms in a longer TT.
For example long TT strong but weaker prl Kiryenka. Long TT weaker but stronger prl Dennis, with somebody like Malori being quite balanced between the two.
Also Thanks to Matt for writing that long intro.
As always anybody is welcome to post their stat ideas here.
As for me I'm now working my way through the CT stats, a lot easier as there are less riders per team.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 18-12-2015 20:04
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| irdalopez |
Posted on 21-12-2015 09:35
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Will there be an update database in December 2015 - January 2016 ? |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 21-12-2015 18:05
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irdalopez wrote:
Will there be an update database in December 2015 - January 2016 ?
Father Christmas won't be around until at least the end of January or even later. |
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 31-12-2015 13:43
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All the WT, PT and CT stats are finished (minus some tweaking of course when they're fitted into their 2016 teams) just adding riders not in db and deleting others that haven't raced as there were far too many Free Agents in the db. Special thanks to Kodman for providing a fantastic list.
Now if anybody wants to send me any opinions on lesser known riders at CT level now and in January is the time to do it, as I can make sure they'll be added to the db. |
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| AiZaK |
Posted on 31-12-2015 13:46
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How many teams are there in 2016 in the DB??? |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-12-2015 13:51
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Tafiolmo wrote:
All the WT, PT and CT stats are finished (minus some tweaking of course when they're fitted into their 2016 teams) just adding riders not in db and deleting others that haven't raced as there were far too many Free Agents in the db. Special thanks to Kodman for providing a fantastic list.
Now if anybody wants to send me any opinions on lesser known riders at CT level now and in January is the time to do it, as I can make sure they'll be added to the db.
therefore it would be amazing to know which CT teams are in the DB and with aren´t...and I´m not clear about whether you want suggestions for CT riders which teams are in the game or CT riders from teams not in the DB so that they are FAs :)
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| matt17br |
Posted on 31-12-2015 13:55
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therefore it would be amazing to know which CT teams are in the DB and with aren´t...
I can provide a rough list:
Spoiler BKCP – Corendon (BEL)
Cibel (BEL)
Color Code (BEL)
Crelan (BEL)
Superano Ham (BEL)
Team 3M (BEL)
Telenet (BEL)
Veranclassic (BEL)
Verandas Willems (BEL)
Wallonie Bruxelles (BEL)
Axeon (USA)
Jelly Belly (USA)
Jamis (new sponsor; USA)
Optum (USA)
Holowesko (USA)
Jo Piels (NED)
Join’s – De Rijke (NED)
Metec – TKH (NED)
Parkhotel Valkenburg (NED)
Rabobank Dev (NED)
SEG Racing (NED)
LKT Brandenburg (GER)
Rad-net Rose (GER)
Kuota – Lotto (GER)
Efapel (POR)
LA Aluminos (POR)
Louletano (POR)
Rádio Popular (POR)
W52 Porto (POR)
Coop – Oster Hus (NOR)
Joker (NOR)
Sparebanken Sor (NOR)
Riwal (DEN)
Trefor (DEN)
Coloquick (DEN)
JLT – Condor (GBR)
Madison Genesis (GBR)
NFTO (GBR)
Raleigh (GBR)
Wiggins (GBR)
Vorarlberg (AUT)
Tirol (AUT)
Felbermayr (AUT)
Amplatz (AUT)
Armée de Terre (FRA)
HP BTP – Auber93 (FRA)
Roubaix Lille Metropole (FRA)
Norda – MG.Kvis (ITA)
Unieuro (ITA)
D’Amico (ITA)
Burgos (ESP)
Euskadi – Murias (ESP)
An Post (IRL)
Klein Constantia (former AWT) (CZE)
Whirlpool (CZE)
Leopard (LUX)
Differdange (LUX)
Amore & Vita (UKR)
Torku Sekerspor (TUR)
Skydive Dubai (UAE)
Synergy Baku (AZE)
Meridiana Kamen (CRO)
Adria Mobil (SLO)
Tre Berg – Bianchi (SWD)
Silber (CAN)
Note that it isn't final at all and some teams could be added/removed.
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| Tafiolmo |
Posted on 31-12-2015 15:05
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Croatia14 wrote:
Tafiolmo wrote:
All the WT, PT and CT stats are finished (minus some tweaking of course when they're fitted into their 2016 teams) just adding riders not in db and deleting others that haven't raced as there were far too many Free Agents in the db. Special thanks to Kodman for providing a fantastic list.
Now if anybody wants to send me any opinions on lesser known riders at CT level now and in January is the time to do it, as I can make sure they'll be added to the db.
therefore it would be amazing to know which CT teams are in the DB and with aren´t...and I´m not clear about whether you want suggestions for CT riders which teams are in the game or CT riders from teams not in the DB so that they are FAs
Most importantly would be any riders that will be riding for those teams Matt has put for 2016. It doesn't have to be just main stat improvements but also things like fighter stat etc where somebody has noticed a rider attacking a lot and stuff like that. Also just as important are stat downgrades where somebody night have too high stats, downgrading always keeps a nice balance in the db.
Free Agents are also useful to have and Kodman has given some suggestions there. |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 31-12-2015 15:11
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If I'm bored next weak, I may come up with some stats for the cyclocross guys, a lot of new riders who can be compared with the pro's this year.
Edited by Tafiolmo on 31-12-2015 15:24
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