Ian Butler wrote:
Yeah everyone's banking on the Tour this year. Let's hope it brings fireworks
Thats what I am expecting too. Anything less would be disappointing - thats the beauty and the curse of the Tour, tho. I love the hype and it gets me going, literally not thinking about anything else for those 3 weeks, but I guess it has its drawbacks sometimes.
By the time the peloton reaches Col de Pierre Saint Martin, at least 30% of those contenders is out the dance tho due to crashes, illness, timelosses and so on and so forth. But nevertheless, just the expectation of it being spectacular is half the experience for me.
Edited by Riis123 on 10-05-2015 20:39
The Giro is done and I have gone into full TdF-prepare mode. I very much like this time of the year - reckless speculations on how teams are gonna look, in what shape the faovurites will show up etc. Some of those questions get answered to some extend during June in Dauphine, Suisse and now also, Route du Sud. Which domestiques are selected for which races and how do they do? I love it.
All routes are revealed. Dauphine looks decent, while Tour de Suisse is kinda meh apart from the godlike stage up to Flumserberg. Obviously along with the flatter stages in the Tour - I bet ya Valverde likes those. Anyways, first race which is up is Dauphine and the following are expected to show up (maybe partly due to the TTT and Pra-Loup stage): Peraud, Bardet, Valverde, Nibali, Rodriguez, Rolland, Mollema, Tejay, Rui Costa, Froome and Talansky. All those will also be attending Le Tour - very good field here and with the 4 last stages categorized as mountain stages, it should be fun. It will also be extremely interesting to see the time gaps in the TTT as it is as hilly as the TTT in the Tour, only 5 kilometres shorter. Will Nibali take the same approach as last year? I cant see any reason why he wouldnt.
Next up is Tour de Suisse which has lost out on all big guns this year: Pozzovivo, Fuglsang, Gesink, Majka and Schleck. It is somewhat unclear if Pozzo is going to France in July, but the rest of them will. The big expected participant was Quintana, but it seems he prefers - along with Contador after the Giro - Route du Sud much like Valverde last year after a relatively hard spring campaign. That leaves an extremely weak field in which I guess Pinot, Majka and Fuglsang are the men to beat. Flumserberg is still must watch TV for cycling fanatics (and casual cycling fans as well), but it otherwise has the ingredients to be a relatively dull race.
Quintana is scheduled to do the Route du Sud. I like that since he doesnt seem to be the kinda guy who needs many race days in order to get into form AND the fact that the Tour first starts on Pierre Saint Martin for Quintana, 10 days into the race. Same goes for Contador after a extremely hard Giro who chose the spanish nationals in 2011 after the same attempt. The queen stage this year will go over the Port de Bales in the finale - I dont know whether there will be any live broadcast, I hope so, but I doubt it since there wasnt last year.
Some interesting things to keep track on in June: How does Ag2R managed Pozzovivo and Bentacur? Pozzovivo wouldnt exclude the idea of him doing the Tour due to the route and if I was Lavenu, I would be scared to send Betancur back home after working him for 5 months in order to get into decent shape. Could be fun to see both at the Tour - especially Betancur.
Vino said as well he wouldnt exclude Aru just yet. The plan is the Vuelta atm, but with Landa evolving into such a climbing beast, I would not be one bit surprised if he did the Tour instead.
How will Tinkoffs team look like? I would say Contador, Sagan, Bennati, Majka and Rogers are locks. Jesus Hernandez probably is as well and Kiserlovski and Kreuziger should be there as well. That leaves one spot open for Valgren, Bodnar, Tosatto and Paulinho. Decisions, decisions.
Whole lotta other things I'll keep track on as well: biggest thing probably Movistar's outlook for the Tour. Their team seems rather slim in the mountains except Valverde and Quintana, but with a very strong rouleur-team which could prove very good in the first week including the TTT.
Edit: Ups, sorry for the wall of text! Didnt even realize...
Edited by Riis123 on 31-05-2015 23:30
Good read on the upcoming month! Gave me a nice overview for who and what to expect.
Tour de Suisse stage you're referring to finsish atop the Rettenbachferner (much much harder than the Flumserberg ).
Doubt we will see Kreuziger in the Tour considering he'll likely be suspended in the upcoming month.
And Betancur has already done 58 race days this season (which was necessary for him to get in shape) so doubt we'll see him racing much in the upcoming month. Will be very important for him to keep his weight down and his form up. Very important moment in his career.
Spilak23 wrote:
Good read on the upcoming month! Gave me a nice overview for who and what to expect.
Tour de Suisse stage you're referring to finsish atop the Rettenbachferner (much much harder than the Flumserberg ).
Doubt we will see Kreuziger in the Tour considering he'll likely be suspended in the upcoming month.
And Betancur has already done 58 race days this season (which was necessary for him to get in shape) so doubt we'll see him racing much in the upcoming month. Will be very important for him to keep his weight down and his form up. Very important moment in his career.
Knew I had to make a crucial mistake after such a writing, I havent changed since high school, oh well
Didnt even consider Kreuziger. You are probably right there which is good for Valgren's chances.
Yeah, Betancur is hard. It probably depends a lot on how he feels himself - if he wants to, I wouldnt stand in his way. That would mean he probably would go home and meet up for the Vuelta (or Burgos) in terrible shape once again...
Whole lotta other things I'll keep track on as well: biggest thing probably Movistar's outlook for the Tour. Their team seems rather slim in the mountains except Valverde and Quintana, but with a very strong rouleur-team which could prove very good in the first week including the TTT.
I would say 6 of them are for sure: Valverde, Quintana, Malori, Rojas, Gorka Iza and Jose Herrada. None of these have done the Giro - that leaves 3 spots open. I would say Erviti has a god shot here as he has been a solid man many years in TdF. But they still need more climbers - Herrada and Izaguirre are decen, but not more than that in high mountains. Gadret was great last year and I expect him to be there as well, allthough he really havent raced in any notables races this season. Maybe someone from the Giro squad for the last spot - Izaguirre and Antón would be the obvious picks from that bunch. But I think it goes to either Capecchi or Moreno.
So my pick: The aforementioned 6 and 3 of the following: Erviti, Gadret, Capecchi and Moreno. Outside shot for Izaguirre and Anton, but I dont think so. Rory Sutherland stands a chance as well, he could be very solid in the first week along with Malori and Erviti.
We saw a very weak Katusha team for Giro. They arrive at TdF with a strong team with Purito, Moreno, Spilak, Kristoff. I will not at all be surprised by another Purito podium. Afterall he has been silent entire season. But I expect him to lose atleast 5 mins on cobbles.
Nin1388 wrote:
We saw a very weak Katusha team for Giro. They arrive at TdF with a strong team with Purito, Moreno, Spilak, Kristoff. I will not at all be surprised by another Purito podium. Afterall he has been silent entire season. But I expect him to lose atleast 5 mins on cobbles.
Apart from winning Pais Vasco and and podiumming in L-B-L... he has done more than I have expected from him this year.
But yeah, the route is absolutely tailor made for him and honestly, I wouldnt be that surprised either if he can survive the cobbles and podium here.
Edited by Riis123 on 06-06-2015 13:24
I'd say he could get yellow on Muur, but that climb belongs to Valverde by now. Purito could definiteily do some damage to the top tier riders, hope he'll ride it somewhat more aggressive than he is known for.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
Shonak wrote:
I'd say he could get yellow on Muur, but that climb belongs to Valverde by now. Purito could definiteily do some damage to the top tier riders, hope he'll ride it somewhat more aggressive than he is known for.
Unless he pulls an ITT out of his Catalan arse like he did in Pais Vasco (which is highly unlikely since the prologue is completely flat), he could distance Valverde with 20 sec, at least, and still dont get yellow.
Aru confirmed to not do the Tour, will ride Vuelta along with Landa again. Rumours about Betancur or/and Pozzovivo should do the Tour, but both will ride Vuelta instead which is good so we don't get ALL the best riders concentrated in one race.
Also, just consider Skys team for a bit in the mountain: Froome, Porte, Nieve, Roche, Thomas, Henao, Konig and Poels. I know Roche and Nieve have regressed a bit, but its scary as fck. I cant imagine them taking selecting all of them, 1 or 2 probably have to give their spots up in order to form a proper team
The classic Valverde autumn after racing from early february: San Sebastian, Vuelta and WC. He should be the big favorite in Sebastian. Wants to return next year for the podium as well. Honestly, I would rather see him trying to win the Giro (a race he hasnt ever raced, btw) and do the Rodriguez-2012 program and let Quintana be 100% captain, but oh well, this guy never gets old nor tired of trying in the Tour.
Quintana not entirely sure on the Vuelta, but I mean, why not try again with the best duo in the race? He said it depends on his recovery, but Unzue wants him to take part badly as he probably knows Valverde's limit is top-3.
Froome says he wants to take part as well, but is not sure yet. There is a tradition of Tour winners more or less calling it quits after such a win, so respect to Froome he decides to try.
Rodriguez is more or less 100% for the Vuelta. Havent found an article, but is listed at PCS and basically takes the Vuelta on every year. Hoping for a 2012-2013 Rodriguez, but that probably wont happen again.
Landa and Aru are surefire and while Nibz isnt listed at PCS, I have heard rumblings about Vino wanting to punish him. And I meant, why not? He cant possibly be exhausted after his year so far. Please bring back the 2 GT's a year and spring Nibali, thanks! Imagine those 3 at Astana.... puh.
Betancur and Pozzovivo will also participate, maybe Bardet as well? Pozzo sohuld be hella motivated after his crashes, while Betancur - as always..... - will be a big question mark. Could be cuuuul to see Bardet as well here to round the trio out.
Of random lesser names, these are expected (at least by PCS) to take part in the Vuelta: Navarro, Nieve, Niemiec, Ten Dam, Majka, Amador, LLS, JVB, Chaves, Talansky and Arroyo... so far.
This race looks by the looks on profiles and names extremely promising already. The Vuelta proved to be spectacular in 2012 and 2014 after dreadfull Tour de France's. Here is to hope it gets even better. Only 'real' big name not set to start (or not considering) is Contador (who ends his season at San Sebastian, wisely so), while we can expect at least 1 of Nibali, Quintana and Froome to participate. Would be disappointed if 2 of them didnt take up the challenge.
The classic Valverde autumn after racing from early february: San Sebastian, Vuelta and WC. He should be the big favorite in Sebastian. Wants to return next year for the podium as well. Honestly, I would rather see him trying to win the Giro (a race he hasnt ever raced, btw) and do the Rodriguez-2012 program and let Quintana be 100% captain, but oh well, this guy never gets old nor tired of trying in the Tour.
Quintana not entirely sure on the Vuelta, but I mean, why not try again with the best duo in the race? He said it depends on his recovery, but Unzue wants him to take part badly as he probably knows Valverde's limit is top-3.
Froome says he wants to take part as well, but is not sure yet. There is a tradition of Tour winners more or less calling it quits after such a win, so respect to Froome he decides to try.
Rodriguez is more or less 100% for the Vuelta. Havent found an article, but is listed at PCS and basically takes the Vuelta on every year. Hoping for a 2012-2013 Rodriguez, but that probably wont happen again.
Landa and Aru are surefire and while Nibz isnt listed at PCS, I have heard rumblings about Vino wanting to punish him. And I meant, why not? He cant possibly be exhausted after his year so far. Please bring back the 2 GT's a year and spring Nibali, thanks! Imagine those 3 at Astana.... puh.
Betancur and Pozzovivo will also participate, maybe Bardet as well? Pozzo sohuld be hella motivated after his crashes, while Betancur - as always..... - will be a big question mark. Could be cuuuul to see Bardet as well here to round the trio out.
Of random lesser names, these are expected (at least by PCS) to take part in the Vuelta: Navarro, Nieve, Niemiec, Ten Dam, Majka, Amador, LLS, JVB, Chaves, Talansky and Arroyo... so far.
This race looks by the looks on profiles and names extremely promising already. The Vuelta proved to be spectacular in 2012 and 2014 after dreadfull Tour de France's. Here is to hope it gets even better. Only 'real' big name not set to start (or not considering) is Contador (who ends his season at San Sebastian, wisely so), while we can expect at least 1 of Nibali, Quintana and Froome to participate. Would be disappointed if 2 of them didnt take up the challenge.
Great sum up, thanks!
"It's very hard to work with other guys because nobody wants to work with me so it's better to drop everybody." - Peter Sagan
HuDCC wrote:
[quote]Riis123 wrote:
Honestly, I would rather see him trying to win the Giro (a race he hasnt ever raced, btw)
if I remember correctly he is not allowed to race in Italy, or was that only some kind of joke to me and I am wrong?[/quote
If I remember correctly, before he was banned in 2010, he was only banned in Italy which meant he couldnt take part of the Tour 2009 as it crossed into Italy at some point. He is perfectly allowed to race in Italy now, so probably just a joke.
Already looking forward to 2016 Giro. I would categorize Urán, Hesjedal, Kruijswijk, Landa and Pozzovivo as 100% for that race along with either Aru or Nibali. At least one of them will participate. Then we have the likes of Meintjens and Chaves who most probably also will ride. Then Peraud who said he wont do the Tour - do the math! It could be the perfect place for Jungels to develop into a GC-rider as well. And how about Majka and Rodriguez? Pretty certain that the Tour-ship has sailed for Purito, so he should do the Giro. And then, obviously, the hottest name in cycling atm Dumoulin - the race starts in NL and has 3 ITT's. I expect him to be here as well.
Along with the route presentaions, this is shaping up to be a really nice race.
Contador looks already in some fine shape based upon the video he posted on his social media outlets. Schedule is similiar to his 2014 ubershape: Algarve, Paris-Nice, Catalunya, Pais Vasco - break - Dauphine, Tour, Vuelta. Highly likely that Rio 2016 is also on the schedule since he has talked quite a bit about the race. Super excited what marvellous things he'll accomplish in his last season. Vamos!
Shonak wrote:
Contador looks already in some fine shape based upon the video he posted on his social media outlets. Schedule is similiar to his 2014 ubershape: Algarve, Paris-Nice, Catalunya, Pais Vasco - break - Dauphine, Tour, Vuelta. Highly likely that Rio 2016 is also on the schedule since he has talked quite a bit about the race. Super excited what marvellous things he'll accomplish in his last season. Vamos!
Looks very similar to his 2009 schedule until the Tour except riding Catalunya instead of Castilla y Leon.
I sense TdF win along with PV and P-N maybe even Algarve and Catalunya.He won't peak for Dauphine imo so won't win there like 2007,2009 and 2010.
After the Tour he can do the Tour-Vuelta double.I don't give him too much chances in Rio with Valverde and Rodriguez in team.But if anybody can do it it is Contador.
Also the Vuelta route is craaaaaaaaaaaap.The only good stages are stages 6,12 and 13.Nice to see Aitana back though.And the TTT is way too long.Hope that both Contador and Nibali go to Vuelta teach the race organisers a lesson again.But they probably won't learn again.
#VamosBertie!
Also is Kruiswijk doing the Giro or is Gesink the leader there?
Edited by Forever the Best on 10-02-2016 18:04
After a semi boring March GC-wise (cancellations and Catalunya broadcast), we start April with something a lot more interesting. Quintana, Contador, Pinot, Henao, Rodriguez, Aru and Yates are just some of the names attending in what always is a fine race in Itzulia. Im a little disappointed at least one of the BMC's didn't choose to ride, but then again, it may be a little too explosive terrain. If Contador pulls a Malhao or a Mende, this should be in his back considering Quintana's lack of explosiveness.
Froome has made a habit of not riding this race, likewise, I can't remember Nibali doing it. He probably has, tho.
Next on the plate is Giro de Trentino. All the stages are published and it will be televised! Trentino is generally, along with Romandie, where the GC-men of the Giro will polish their shape and this year, the 2 of the 3 biggest favourites attend. Nibali and Landa should make for a great showdown on the 3 last stages of the race (which also contains a TTT). Seems like Trentino at this point has outclassed Romandie in terms of attracting from the Giro, but on the other hand, the number of stars set to compete in France come July has increased. Pozzovivo is also set to attend, while I am pretty sure it is Bardet's preferred race ahead of the Ardennes.
As a little sidenote, Valverde will take part of Castilla y Leon in front of his biggest goals of the season, the Ardennes and Il Giro. History has shown its hard to peak for both races.
The last one is Romandie. With 2 MTF's (one a little lesser than the other) and 20 km's of ITT spread across 2 time trials, this one generally goes to a pure stage racer. Froome has won it two times and should also this time be the overwhelmingly favourite. Quintana seems to be his biggest opponent - Majka, Bardet, G Thomas, Kellerman, Spilak, Angel Lopez, Uran and the 2 BMC stars, Porte and Tejay, will also attend.
New phase. It was mentioned somewhere that Quintana hinted that he would do Suisse.. please do yourselves that favour and check that route out. It would be awesome, but it is wise? He probably knows best what he is doing. I hope he is going for it, it would be epic.
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