Last chance to gain time and potentially win the Tour de France is tomorrow up the Alp. In 2011, where a much similar stage was ridden on the penultimate day in the mountains, the GC was still up in the air with 3, potentially 4 different winners. Thats not the case this year, but that doesn't mean it wont be as spectacular since Quintana gained time and confidence today, while Nibali crept close to Valverde's long time desired podium spot.
Due to an accident on Galibier, Croix de Fer will replace Galiber and thus not make it a complete repllica of the Modane - Alpe d' Huez stage in 2011. Gailbier is without a doubt the harder climb of the two - at least Croix de Fer from this side - but it probably wont impact the stage nor outcome that much anyways, since they still have to go through 20 km of valley road or so which probably means a relatively big peloton at the bottom as always. Croix de Fer is still a very difficult climb due to the length and its steep percentages at times.
The Alpe is a mountain of so much prestige and combined with it being the last mountain stage, there are very good chances of the best riders fighting it out for the stage win. Quintana is the favorite after his display today while Froome against showed at least some weaknesses in the last weak, but does it matter when he destroys them beforehand in the first mountain stage? 2,38 is most likely way too much, especially since Froome probably will ride it more conservatively than he normally does (is that possible lol) and not go in red on the bottom - but lets remember 2008 when Sastre took 2.15 out of Evans and effectively won the race. It is possible, although Froome is in another league climbing wise than Evans. It will still be debated if Quintana should have gone earlier - which he should've in hindsight - but reports claimed he felt a little ill. Smokescreen? Either way, he has to try from the bottom he he were to stand any chances.
The fight for the polkadots is still up in the air after, still incredibly close due to the recent chances. Romain Bardet leads with 3 down to Froome and another 9 to Rodriguez. Rodriguez seems to have dwindled quite a bit after his 2 stage win and much like in 2014, he lacks something. Bardet has been going very well recently and if he can gain some valuable points on Croix de Fer, do not discount him - but its still very much Froome's jersey to lose.
This is the stage where Tinkoff and Movistar's all domestiques need to set up a very high pace in Col de la Croix Fer like today, they need to drop Skyguards of Froome like today and make Froome not confortable.
I think Quintana will make a 40 seconds gap but it won't be much for the Maillot Jaune.
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emre99's stages Thread of the Week : Tour of California 2014 -Official PCM World Cup 2016, 10th best keirin player in the world PCM.daily Awards : 2 Nominee 0 Award
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Quintana to go all in! He is no longer afraid of Froome and will attack if Froome is alone. Expect a high pace because from Movistar because of that. There is only one climb so there wont be a problem to do it and the peleton wont stop when Valverde is the only one left by Quintana, since there will always be someone besides him except of Piti.
Paul23 wrote:
Froome will win tomorrow. He stated, that he didn't went Fullgas today, because he saved energy for tomorrow.
It's all about psychology. If he really didn't want to go full gas he would catch Quintana and relax behind him. He tries to remain superior but it won't be that easy. Mark my words QUINTANA WILL GO INSANE TOMMOROW!!!
clamel wrote:
And Froome will have to fight crazy insane folks by the road too. At this stage it might not be enough with what this insane criminal did.
Lots of prejudices and meaningless hate. I don't myself understand the hate against Froome, but it's seems to be the main thing here in the forum, where I've even read that people hope he'll get injuried.
Riis123 wrote:
The Alpe is a mountain of so much prestige and combined with it being the last mountain stage, there are very good chances of the best riders fighting it out for the stage win. Quintana is the favorite after his display today while Froome against showed at least some weaknesses in the last weak, but does it matter when he destroys them beforehand in the first mountain stage? 2,38 is most likely way too much, especially since Froome probably will ride it more conservatively than he normally does (is that possible lol) and not go in red on the bottom - but lets remember 2008 when Sastre took 2.15 out of Evans and effectively won the race. It is possible, although Froome is in another league climbing wise than Evans. It will still be debated if Quintana should have gone earlier - which he should've in hindsight - but reports claimed he felt a little ill. Smokescreen? Either way, he has to try from the bottom he he were to stand any chances.
to be fair Quintana is also in a different league compared to Sastre so the Froome/Evans comparisment doesn't stand up to much. although the gap from Stage 19 Quintana to Stage 19 Froome is probably smaller than 2008 Sastre to Evans.
personally I'm hoping for specactors don't impact the main race (though I would love the see riders like what Hansen did during the Giro have a good time during the climb) and I'm hoping for a Dutch victory on the only mountain we have.
Zoetemelk (1976, 1979), Kuiper (1977, 1978), Winnen (1981, 1983), Rooks (1988), Theunissse (1989), we need a new name on that list of legends
Quintana was faster up La Toussuire then Sastre was in 2006. But he needs to go from much further out then today to stand a chance to win the Tour.
Sadly, I think Quintana already lost the Tour in Zeeland. 1'10 would've been possible (but hard). 2'40 is impossible
Riis123 wrote:
The Alpe is a mountain of so much prestige and combined with it being the last mountain stage, there are very good chances of the best riders fighting it out for the stage win. Quintana is the favorite after his display today while Froome against showed at least some weaknesses in the last weak, but does it matter when he destroys them beforehand in the first mountain stage? 2,38 is most likely way too much, especially since Froome probably will ride it more conservatively than he normally does (is that possible lol) and not go in red on the bottom - but lets remember 2008 when Sastre took 2.15 out of Evans and effectively won the race. It is possible, although Froome is in another league climbing wise than Evans. It will still be debated if Quintana should have gone earlier - which he should've in hindsight - but reports claimed he felt a little ill. Smokescreen? Either way, he has to try from the bottom he he were to stand any chances.
to be fair Quintana is also in a different league compared to Sastre so the Froome/Evans comparisment doesn't stand up to much. although the gap from Stage 19 Quintana to Stage 19 Froome is probably smaller than 2008 Sastre to Evans.
personally I'm hoping for specactors don't impact the main race (though I would love the see riders like what Hansen did during the Giro have a good time during the climb) and I'm hoping for a Dutch victory on the only mountain we have.
Zoetemelk (1976, 1979), Kuiper (1977, 1978), Winnen (1981, 1983), Rooks (1988), Theunissse (1989), we need a new name on that list of legends
Riis123 wrote:
The Alpe is a mountain of so much prestige and combined with it being the last mountain stage, there are very good chances of the best riders fighting it out for the stage win. Quintana is the favorite after his display today while Froome against showed at least some weaknesses in the last weak, but does it matter when he destroys them beforehand in the first mountain stage? 2,38 is most likely way too much, especially since Froome probably will ride it more conservatively than he normally does (is that possible lol) and not go in red on the bottom - but lets remember 2008 when Sastre took 2.15 out of Evans and effectively won the race. It is possible, although Froome is in another league climbing wise than Evans. It will still be debated if Quintana should have gone earlier - which he should've in hindsight - but reports claimed he felt a little ill. Smokescreen? Either way, he has to try from the bottom he he were to stand any chances.
to be fair Quintana is also in a different league compared to Sastre so the Froome/Evans comparisment doesn't stand up to much. although the gap from Stage 19 Quintana to Stage 19 Froome is probably smaller than 2008 Sastre to Evans.
personally I'm hoping for specactors don't impact the main race (though I would love the see riders like what Hansen did during the Giro have a good time during the climb) and I'm hoping for a Dutch victory on the only mountain we have.
Zoetemelk (1976, 1979), Kuiper (1977, 1978), Winnen (1981, 1983), Rooks (1988), Theunissse (1989), we need a new name on that list of legends
Mochema inc?
I would even take Michael Boogerd, Thomas Dekker or Theo Bos as winners (despite it being unrealistic for them winning)
On one hand Mollema is riding again a hopelessly boring Tour and I started to strongly dislike him especially comparing to Gesink.
But on the other hand, the way he somehow fights back today and finished wtih Contador and Valverde and co is commendable. He is probably the most limited rider who finishes top 10 in the TDF 3 times in a row.
clamel wrote:
And Froome will have to fight crazy insane folks by the road too. At this stage it might not be enough with what this insane criminal did.
Lots of prejudices and meaningless hate. I don't myself understand the hate against Froome, but it's seems to be the main thing here in the forum, where I've even read that people hope he'll get injuried.
I don't like Froome but I don't get why anyone would take pleasure in seeing him injured, if he is going to lose a race then it should be on the road because he doesn't have the legs but not because he's crashed or by some idiot on the side of the road. I do believe that the Froome "hate" on the roadside is only a small and we all remember even the greatest rider we have ever seen in Eddy Merckx was punched in 75 on the Puy de Dôme by an idiot so what's going on with Froome is nothing new
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Sadly for the Dutch their best hopes for winning the climb are either donestiques or marking each other.
The stage does not look as hard as today, the first climb is steep at bottom so if they go hard early then maybe. Certainly a chance to isolate the skybots early. Three of their squadron are off key and standard/Rowe are not much good. Still I find it hard to believe they can isolate Froome before Alpe very easily. Particularly if GC threat Bardet is attempting KoM raid.
Still Quintana has a chance if he can find spirit of Pantani and I do not meant the coke! I think he plans to attack in similar place to Sastre, not sure he can go any earlier than that and Nibali creeping closer on GC will unsettle Valv and his loyal crew.
As i saw last year Giro, i can believe that Quintana can do it, however, I am pretty sure that this 2'40 is way too much, Froome would need to "die" there to lose this race
clamel wrote:
And Froome will have to fight crazy insane folks by the road too. At this stage it might not be enough with what this insane criminal did.
emre99's stages Thread of the Week : Tour of California 2014 -Official PCM World Cup 2016, 10th best keirin player in the world PCM.daily Awards : 2 Nominee 0 Award
Daily Song Contest WINNER! With Foals - Mountain at my Gates with Greece! 1 like 1 girlfriend ''I call you the stage god. You are the stage god.'' -baseballover312, 15.07.2016
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