Ahead of the second rest day and three difficult ‘High Mountain’ stages the peloton make the almost customary journey to the town of Gap. Will the general classification riders try to put the Maillot Jaune under pressure over the Col de Manse as in 2011 and 2013?
There are just two categorised ascents out on today’s course but both are second category climbs. En route to Gap the peloton will climb the Col de Cabre(9.1km @ 4.6%) before heading out to the Col de Manse(8.9km @ 5.6%) upon reaching Gap for the first time.
The stage is perhaps most famous for when Samuel Sanchez, Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans put almost a minute into the Schleck brothers on the descent down the other side of the Col de Manse. A similar move was launched in 2013 in an attempt to dislodge an unwavering Sky Pro Cycling and Chris Froome but that time it came to nought.
Fast forward to 2015 and the situation is eerily similar to the 2013 Tour de France, once again Chris Froome leads and his rivals must create opportunities to claw back time. The rest day on Tuesday provides Nairo Quintana and co the chance to dig deeper than usual but a crucial x-factor from 2011, rain, will be missing, the weather forecast to be hot and sunny.
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The road descends almost all the way to the finishing line within the town from the Col de Manse, slowly flattening out within the final 1000-metres. Three roundabouts within the final 1500-metres offers cunning riders a chance to shake a rival off their rear wheel and slipstream when used with a cleverly timed burst of acceleration.
Stage Contenders
The breakaway has a history of winning the stage to Gap and I suspect Stage 16 of the 2015 Tour de France will no different. However, if there is an impetus to win the stage within the peloton then perhaps it will be third time lucky on Stage 16, the third consecutive time the race visits Gap on the sixteenth stage oddly.
Rui Costa claimed victory on the stage to Gap ahead of Christophe Riblon in 2013. However, the Portuguese cyclist has withdrawn from this year's race so a new champion must be found in 2015.
Picking the composition of the breakaway will be a nightmare as everyone and their dog tries to get involved in what should be a certain victory for one lucky escapist, if history repeats itself. The stage suits a rider who can not only climb but who also has well rounded characteristics, with a head-to-head or small group sprint a possibility if no one can force a gap over the Col de Manse.
Look out for riders strong, punchy riders like Jarlinson Pantano, Thomas Voeckler, Ramunas Navardauskas, Thomas De Gendt, Daniel Oss, Peter Sagan and Matteo Trentin.
I would bet on that Sagan try to get away again in tomorrows breakaway (Desperate for a winning stage),
else my outsiders are EBH (hoping), Van Avermaet, Gallopin, Maybe Sanschez get away, he and Nibali would in their old shape be unstoppeble in the downhills to Gap,
Maybe Sky will send a man into the break so they can controll it without using to much energi...
99% for the break? Cant see anyse chasing that down. Hoping for a little GC-action once again, especially if its wet on the downhill like in 2011 when the sissees were under attack! (I still like you Andy, but you are a sissy at times...)
No clue for the break. 2agan turning into 1agan maybe?
I'm really thinking this is a chance for one of the guys ranked 15-20 to go for the breakaway and win the stage (and try to move back towards the top 10). Sammy Sanchez certainly would fit the spot as he is an excellent descender but I'm not sure if at his age he really wants to be going 200k in a breakaway. So with that in mind I'm going to take Talansky who at 22' back will not threaten the main contenders and will probably be in the breakaway. (Pinot would have been very serious threat for this but don't think he goes breakaway again).
I also wouldn't be surprised to see Fulgsang be allowed to ride for himself now and the polka dot jersey, could be a chance for both a win and that jersey.
Edited by Kentaurus on 19-07-2015 23:17
ASO innovation at its finest... reuse the same finish three Alps-finale years in a row
Might get a GC guy attacking considering it's the rest day tomorrow so they don't have that much to lose, but stage will surely be a breakaway win like the last two times.
I think this is the last chance for a stage win for either Boasson Hagen or Kristoff. I don't think Kristoff has the speed to beat Greipel in a perfectly flat sprint like Champs.
Hopefully EBH can make it into the break and hang on. Of possible break contenders, he should have one, of not the, best sprint finish.
There's a fine line between "psychotherapist" and "psycho the rapist"
Some frenchmen could also try here. You have already been into the topp 25 GC contenderse, here we got rolland, pinot, bardet, barguil, vuillermoz who are french,
Nibali would be a good tip normaly in this course..
But one frenchmen who aren't named yet is the Oldone is Voeckler and Chavanel, they are both good descenders and could win if they have their day.
Bourg-de-Péage - 
