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Le Tour de France 2015 | Stage 13, Muret - Rodez
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| Malkael |
Posted on 16-07-2015 20:27
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Sprinter
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Stage 13:  Muret - Rodez (198.5km)
(click image to enlarge)
After three gruelling stages in the Pyrenees the 2015 Tour de France sets off for the French Alps. The first of three transition stages, Stage 13 begins in Muret and heads eastwards towards Rodez through the hills and valleys of the Midi-Pyrénées.
It is often said that it is the riders which make the race and today’s lumpy parcours would be hard pressed to provide better assistance. Beginning rather tamely the 198.5 kilometre-long stage throws in a succession of categorised and uncategorised hills after the intermediate sprint in Laboutarie (92.5km).
The general classification riders are expected to keep their powder dry for tomorrow’s difficult stage to Mende but Team Sky will still need to be vigilant as one Alberto Contador can strike at the most surprising of times. Beginning with the third category Côte de Saint-Cirgue (3.8km @ 5.8%), the peloton will also tackle the Côte de la Pomparie (2.8km @ 5%) and the Côte de la Selve (3.9km @ 3.7%) en route to the finish.
On another day the uncategorised climb (3km @ 5%) up to La Primaube might have been classified and it is the penultimate climb out on course. With its summit lying 12 kilometres from the finishing line in Rodez it is arguably too far out to be used as the launch pad for a decisive move.
After La Primaube the road begins to descend almost all the way to the Flamme Rouge as the race enters the L’Averyron river valley. Position will be everything going in to the final kilometre of the stage so the pace will be high as the teams with general classification ambitions fight to keep their team leaders safe.
(click image to enlarge)
The decisive moment of the stage, on paper, occurs when the peloton turn right off the Route de Moyrazes and on to the Avenue de Saint-Pierre and begin the decisive climb of the Côte Saint-Pierre (570m @ 9.6%) with just 620 metres remaining. With just 50 metres separating the finishing line and the summit anyone with stage ambitions cannot let a significant gap form during the ascent as there’ll be nary a hope of closing it during the finishing straight.
Considering the difficulty of the finish and tomorrow's challenging 178.5 kilometre-long parcours from Rodez to Mende the breakaway's chances of success look very good. The short, sharp nature of the finish will favour the puncheurs and we could see many of them try to get in the break today.
Calling who will make the breakaway of the day can be a complete lottery at the best of times but we can expect the likes of the Yates twins or Pieter Weening, Pierrick Fedrigo, Alexis Vuillermoz, Alexandre Geniez, Jose Herrada, Julien Simon, Zdenek Stybar and any MTN - Qhubeka rider to try their luck.
Whether the peloton attempts to reel in the breakaway before the finish in Rodez will greatly depend on who misses the cut. On paper, today's stage could favour the characteristics of John Degenkolb and currently without a stage victory so far Giant - Alpecin will be eager to finally taste victory at 'Le Tour' this year. So if Giant - Alpecin miss the breakaway then we could see them leading the chase back in the peloton.
Peter Sagan will also be eager to contest the stage victory to protect his Maillot Vert from Andre Greipel and hopefully finally get a proverbial monkey off his back that stems from a string of second place finishes. Today's intermediate sprint looks to favour Andre Greipel so the Slovakian could theoretically find himself out of the green jersey by the end of the stage if he is not careful.
If the peloton do actually reel the breakaway in before the finale of the stage things could get messy as opportunistic general classification riders join the fray with time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds up for grabs.
Edited by Malkael on 17-07-2015 11:28
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| lakebeach |
Posted on 16-07-2015 20:29
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Protected Rider
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My (not so bold) prediction: Sagan will be second. 
"It's very hard to work with other guys because nobody wants to work with me so it's better to drop everybody." - Peter Sagan |
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 16-07-2015 20:31
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World Champion
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Brekaway will win. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 28-11-2024 19:23
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 16-07-2015 20:36
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Put quite a bit of PCM$ on another rider, so hoping the break takes it. Would love to see MTN or Orica get a win, the Aussies deserve one after a tough race so far. |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 16-07-2015 20:36
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World Champion
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Definitely the best shot for Degenkolb left so I hope for a small break that Giant can chase down. Probably won't happen though 
(the actually-not-so-bad-either alternative would be to get Geschke in a break)
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| Shonak |
Posted on 16-07-2015 20:42
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Tour de France Champion
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Like it that Greipel is fighting good for green jersey although it may just be a fight against windmills.
Looks like a solid breakaway stage win. But that finish is quite something, steep slope. It should suit DegenStache and 2agan if any sprinter's have ambitions but maybe it's also too tough after 3 hard mountain stages for them.
I don't see many teams helping Giant-Alpecin really because Tinkoff Saxo is already two men down and Etixx has 3 stage wins and may like a breakaway tomorrow more, so breakaway it is likely.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| dienblad |
Posted on 16-07-2015 23:00
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Classics Specialist
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A breakaway, and Dan Martin will take the win....
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 16-07-2015 23:07
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Team Leader
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How is the run-in to the final uphill? A turn or straight? Would make a big difference.
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| Malkael |
Posted on 16-07-2015 23:34
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Sprinter
Posts: 1697
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The run in to the final kilometre is pretty smooth but the right-hand turn on to the climb itself is like a sweeping loose hairpin. Give it about 100 metres at most and then the road sweeps back left in a snaking fashion, both bends greater than 90-degrees in angle.
Has some similarities to the climb to Paracombe on Stage 3 of TDU'15 when I think about it, an abrupt turn on to the climb and all that jazz.
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| Movistar |
Posted on 17-07-2015 05:02
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Domestique
Posts: 424
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Sagan has to take one and this is perfect.
Otherwise Oleg and Vino will be tweeting about how they will trade riders next year. |
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| rastaff |
Posted on 17-07-2015 08:17
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Under 23
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Hoping that Degenstache will finally get his stage win. Would be a nice battle for green if he gets the max. points today. |
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| Smowz |
Posted on 17-07-2015 08:20
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Breakaway for me. Tomorrow is more likely for sneak GC type attack, this one is a bit too flat until the last third.
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| dark_x2012 |
Posted on 17-07-2015 08:29
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Breakaway Specialist
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Should be Giant pulling the breakaway then an attack at the foot of the final climb, nobody chases and Sagan gets second. so this happened on all the non-pure sprinter and non-mountain stages except of Huy.  I don't get what's so difficult about it flat and even the so-called hills are short and with gradients of 3.5-5% which is nothing if it isn't a constant gradient for at least 10 km. The only interesting hill should be the last one. Honestly I have high hopes for Gallopin, who would try to gain back time and also win a stage. Maybe he would try something.
Edited by dark_x2012 on 17-07-2015 08:34
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| wogsrus |
Posted on 17-07-2015 08:39
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Protected Rider
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Breakaway, punchy sprint or late attack. Take your pick.
https://www.theroa...3-preview/ |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 17-07-2015 08:57
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Directeur Sportif
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my shot at this is Paul Voss for Bora from a breakaway  |
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| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 17-07-2015 09:21
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7702
Joined: 24-07-2009
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2agan for sure will find a way to finish 2nd. Degenstache/GVA/Styby or break will win!
Can you please change the topic title so it fits the other Tour topics? Thats my OCD kicking in  |
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| MARSUPILAMI |
Posted on 17-07-2015 09:27
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Team Leader
Posts: 5597
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Wellens will win exactly like Vuillermoz and Stybar won
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| Kirchen_75 |
Posted on 17-07-2015 11:56
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7702
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Kelderman in de Kop alert. 50'' for Jesleyh
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 17-07-2015 12:25
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Tour de France Champion
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Break win please!!
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
PCMdaily Awards: 12x nomination, 9x runner-up, 0x win.
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| ianrussell |
Posted on 17-07-2015 12:34
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Classics Specialist
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Giant reported to be on the front. I also wonder how Matthews is recovering - I noticed he finished a good few minutes before the l'autobus on the Tourmalet stage. If he's been hanging in for anything other than simply not wanting to abandon the Tour then today suits, even if sufficient recovery is unlikely. |
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