It is today. The decisive day. Even though the opening timetrial might have formed an idea of the pecking order, this is the day where it can be won, or lost. Plenty of interest getting in getting into the breakaway for this one, and plenty of potential danger with nobody seeming willing to work with Newton to control the number of escapees. That meant lots of action and lots of heavy legs before things settled down with 12 men out in front. There was a moment where it seemed like Evgeny SHALUNOV, Nawuti LIPHONGYU, Lucas HAMILTON and Charles MATTE might bridge across to the nascent group — their collective climbing capabilities would have posed a real threat — but Emilien VIENNET was able to drag them back in. Instead the best, and almost only, climber in the group is Jordan SCHLECK. He might suffer from having to spend plenty of time on the flat, so the one to watch is instead Tormod JACOBSEN, whose all-round capabilities include not being too terrible when it comes to inclines. The only teams with numbers are SEE Turtles — Ahmad ARISSOL and Joshua KELLY; Cervelo — Riley PICKRELL and Ion IZAGIRRE; and Genii Hyundai — Jhonatan RESTREPO and Lukas POSTLBERGER — but none of them are likely to be capable of capitalising on that advantage. Having already won one stage from the break, James ORAM will be hard pressed to take another; he is joined by other repeat offenders Giorgi NAREKLISHVILI and Igor ARRIETA. The final rider present was Takumi YAMADA.
Coming in to this stage, Matteo JORGENSEN still retained the mountain's lead he gained by winning the opener. As the leader of another, marginally more important, classification, the polkadot jersey is instead being worn by Richard CARAPAZ. Both will be looking to secure more points when we reach Upper Joffre Lake, but the Cat 3 climb to Brackendale (~2km @ ~9%) and the Cat 1 climb of Comfortably Numb (8.1km @ 6.0%) were instead contested by the breakaway. POSTLBERGER had the most of those present, with the likes of ARRIETA and ORAM also having acquired some. The shorter climb to Brackendale was dominated by RESTREPO's punch but the ascent of our first actual mountain saw SCHLECK slaughter his companions. After a devastating tempo up most of the slope, which was already sufficient to put several riders in trouble, he finished things off with an explosive attack that saw him summitting solo. Having also been 2nd on the earlier climb, SCHLECK has the virtual KOM lead with 20 points when our coverage starts at the base of Cayoosh Pass. JACOBSEN, who played second fiddle on both climbs, is virtually 3rd with 14 points.
So, we are just east of Pemberton, about to turn north in Cayoosh Pass. There are about 36 kilometres between this point and the finish. Around 20 kilometres of that are taken up by a long, shallow uncategorised climb that terminates with a descent to the bottom of the climb to Upper Joffre Lake (12km @ 11.6%). Before we can tackle that obstacle though, there are a multitude of issues already in need of resolution. The breakaway — which still has about 4 minutes on the peloton — was evidently not the only ones to suffer on Comfortably Numb. Newton have been on the front from the start of this stage and their refusal to compromise when it comes to the pace can be evidenced by the fact that both Emilien VIENNET and Tristan JUSSAUME have already been dropped, having exhausted themselves keeping the tempo high. Their efforts created a number of splits in the peloton, catching out the unprepared. The worst impacted are SEE Turtles. They might not have expected great things, but they surely hoped that Kashyapa SIRIWARDENA would at least be capable of managing a respectable result in the overall competition. That won't come to pass: despite having teammates wrapped around him he has already lost 3'40" to the favourites. There is a much larger group of riders which are only 30" away. Among their number they can count Kent MAIN, Ziga RUCIGAJ, Cristian MUNOZ, Genii Hyundai's triple leadership and, most prominently, Harm VANHOUCKE. I say most prominent because it is Würth MODYF domestiques who have swarmed to the front, desperately trying to close the gap in front of them. If it were merely a matter of quality, then I might be tempted to suggest that Newton could hold them off, but while JORGENSEN's men have to hold something back for the coming climb, the Würth MODYF boys can throw themselves forward with abandon.
Indeed, the dangerous gap closed up quite quickly, even as the time to the breakaway continued to tumble. A scary moment to be certain, but only a moment. It probably doesn't help that JORGENSEN is almost out of domestiques; only Angel MADRAZO and Sean QUINN still have energy in the tank. Ethiopian are willing to come to their aid, Pierre Paolo PENASA has some ground to make up and his team evidently believes he has the legs to benefit from a hefty pace today. Hmm. PENASA wants to hold BEVIN and KEIZER back for now, so the gap to the front has stalled at 3 minutes. Meanwhile, in the breakaway, only four riders are still together as we begin the descent into the final climb: JACOBSEN, SCHLECK, IZAGIRRE and NAREKLISHVILI.
Any guesses what happens in when the pace slows in the peloton? You know it, we've got an attack! It's Andrea MANFREDI, having recovered from his suffering in the earlier splits. He might have been hoping to surprise everybody and make his escape while they were debating just how much danger he posed. Much to his dismay, it wasn't to be. Dion SMITH and Matteo JORGENSEN are the first responders! They are tucked right in under his wheel. As we crest that penultimate hill they've managed to gain a small gap which they will be hoping to extend on the descent. Richard CARAPAZ is leaning on David BARTL to chase them down: he wants a strong, consistent tempo.
With a bit of help from Maxime LA LAVANDIER, things are brought back together for the base of the climb. It'll be the Zain - Omantel train setting the tempo up the early parts of these slopes too. At least until MANFREDI goes again! I am getting a sense of déjà vu here: SMITH and JORGENSEN are again latched on to this move. MANFREDI must be feeling really good today, because he doesn't even seem to care. PENASA is awake to this one though and quickly shuts it down. Still more than 3 minutes ahead, NAREKLISHVILI is dropping from the lead group.
Dion SMITH isn't happy about his failure to get clear and immediately attacks over top of MANFREDI as soon as the Italian sits down. JORGENSEN seems to think that he may be better served by not burning all his matches with 10 kilometres still to climb and elects not to follow this one. Instead it is again Maxime LA LAVANDIER who must chase SMITH through the lesser elements of the breakaway.
Even though the race amongst the favourites is beginning to heat up, we mustn't forget about what is happening up ahead of them. SMITH's movement has begun reducing the gap and SCHLECK is not happy with the contributions of his companions. He goes on the attack and it is JACOBSEN who is the next to be dislodged. He can't get rid of IZAGIRRE though; mayhaps the wily veteran have one more glory in him?
Alright, there is a lot happening very rapidly, so it might do to do a quick assessment of the situation. SCHLECK and IZAGIRRE are 1'45" ahead of SMITH who is, in turn, 15" ahead of a 67-strong peloton. RUCIGAJ and BARTA have just been dropped; the former still has teammates ahead of him, but the latter was his team's final representative. Kent MAIN is the only other leader to have dropped. Oh, and while I've been chatting away LA LAVANDIER has finally drawn SMITH back in. The favourites can see the escapees up ahead of them.
The slopes are hitting 17% in this particular section. That's the signal for Harm VANHOUCKE to go on the attack. MANFREDI wants to respond, but he has burned too many matches already. There are three solo riders splayed out ahead of him: a revitalised JACOBSEN comes before IZAGIRRE, who has finally found himself unable to follow SCHLECK.
With LA LAVANDIER finally pulling off to the side, it is time for the favourites to go to work. Luis Enrique LEMUS DAVILA is the first to move. Clearly he doesn't believe that SCHLECK can make it all the way. SMITH and Bakhtiyar KOZHATAYEV are the closest, but both are willing to let the Mexican go, forcing Daniel MUNOZ to come round them. That wakes up JORGENSEN, who doesn't want to allow too much leeway. That said, he contents himself with just bringing back VANHOUCKE, leaving the other two to bridge across to SCHLECK.
It is all games with this lot. But then, what else would you expect from a GT stage hunter? Having waited to see if anybody else was willing to take up the mantle of chasing, SMITH's patience has worn out. He is the next one to attack, and again there is very little response. Our earlier attack is getting a dangerous distance up the road but everyone seems content to leave the pacing to CARAPAZ, with only Thymen ARENSMAN contributing Valerio CONTI to the cause.
We are passing through another steep section as we go through the 5 kilometre mark; this one maxes out at over 19%. Nobody seems overly eager to do much of anything. The gap sits at around 1'15" as SMITH finishes bridging across to the front, arriving at the same moment that SCHLECK is dropped. BARTL and Mathieu LA LAVANDIER — the other twin — have returned to the front, and CARAPAZ wants them to do the hard yards of reigning in the leaders. Or not! As soon as the slopes start to lighten CARAPAZ is up on his feet, dancing on the pedals. It isn't a clean break — JORGENSEN and PENASA are with him — but, with on 3½ kilometres left in the climb, this could be the decisive move.
Jaka PRIMOZIC was the quickest of the bunch to react, immediately trying to bridge across. Next up was ARENSMAN, who might have been tempted to attempt the same manoeuvre but by the time he was moving everybody else had also awoken to the danger. The gap to the leading trio is crumbling rather rapidly. Oh, oh no. PRIMOZIC did a stellar job to make his way to the back of PENASA's wheel, but by some stroke of misfortune PENASA cracked before the Slovene could recover. That has sent them both tumbling backwards into the clutches of the chasing pack. Well, the 8 men that remain: ARENSMAN, James KNOX, David BARTL, Aberlardo ABLENADO, Harm VANHOUCKE, Cristian RAILEANU, Frederico FIGUEIREDO and Bakhtiyar KOZHATAYEV. Just as chaos has erupted at the front, so has it exploded in the rear!
There ain't no rest for the wicked and I'm fairly sure that JORGENSEN has made a deal with the devil, the way he has been riding thus far this season. He and CARAPAZ made it across to our leading trio but, not content with that, the young lad is immediately attacking past them. ARENSMAN is doing a great job bridging the chasing group to the former leaders, but you'll need to add BARTL, RAILEANU, VANHOUCKE and ABLENADO to the list of dropped riders.
CARAPAZ takes over the chase, with ARENSMAN and the former leading trio with him. Well, at least momentarily: LEMUS DAVILA promptly falls off the back. KOZHATAYEV is also still making valiant solo effort a little further back. We are entering the final kilometre now and the slopes reduce down to a much more reasonable 9%. JORGENSEN has a gap of 28", this is his race to lose.
We're in the heavens now. There is snow coming down from clouds which are so close you could almost reach out and touch them. CARAPAZ must wish he could reach out and touch JORGENSEN; he is giving everything he has to try and close that gap, to keep the race competitive, but at this point it is just damage limitation. Matteo JORGENSEN will take his second stage of the race and extend his lead at the front. He saved himself to the end, relying on others to force his opponents to burn their matches, and in the end he was the strongest of them all. The fact that he now leads all four classifications — 37" over CARAPAZ in the GC — can hardly be considered underserved.
