The final here in Paris Nice is a 23,5 basically flat TTT. Below the top9 listed with the gaps and direct duels as also some "*" for TTT strength.
Pogacar really should be safe by now seeing his setup is superior to most teams and only Oxxo here has a better TTT lineup but it`s a 1'33 gap.
A lot more interesting the fight for the podium. Right now Haig is looking good having a 14s gap to McNulty with similar setups and then another 4s to Phinney with a better TTT strength. Those 3 should fight for the podium the most but then there is the next and even closer group between Warchol, Eastman +2, Latour +1 and Faglum +1. Strenght wise basically a Eastman/Warchol swap is likely but question is if any of those can attack the riders listed above them even. How big will todays gaps be and can Eastman even grab a late podium?
Then there`s Galta in a rather safe spot as 9th, just like Hirt 10th, Stüssi 11th, where gaps are a bit bigger already. Jura though best of those TTT wise and best chances to potentially improve.
1
Tadej Pogacar
Cedevita
27h02'42
***
-
-
-
-
2
Jack Haig
MOL Cycling Team
+ 1'05
*
-
-
-
-
3
Brandon McNulty
King Power
+ 1'19
*
4
Taylor Phinney
Fastned
+ 1'23
**
-
-
-
-
5
Bartosz Warchol
Gazelle
+ 1'31
**
6
Ryan Eastman
Oxxo - Frisby
+ 1'33
****
7
Pierre Latour
Polar
+ 1'34
*
8
Marcus Faglum Karlsson
Lidl Cycling
+ 1'35
*
-
-
-
-
9
Fredrik Strand Galta
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
+ 1'44
*
Other than those, there is the fight for the stage win and next to the obvious Oxxo - Frisby as also the GC teams of Cedevita and Jura, it`s Copenhagen Malmö winner Vesuvio, TTT experienced Tinkoff and Puma being rated the best. Their GC riders are not in the 1st or 2nd tier range but they obviously could still improve a bit.
Tinkoff being on the road early and they deliver the first time to rate all other performances.
Straight 25:00 minutes for them.
Zara had been pretty close to be honest with just +3s and a bit later Grieg with +15.
Hard to say yet if Tinkoff is having a slow ride or Zara a very fast one, but if the difference between a *** and * rated team is just 3s, then most GC positions might be decided. Grieg though was having a bit more of a gap as another * rated team.
This comes unexpected.
As 11th team on hte road we see Cedevita around GC leader Pogacar. So not too sure about todays order as neither it`s GC ranking nor team ranking. Well anyway, they are doing pretty solid. +6s at halftime, which is the virtual 3rd best time. This is easily enough for Pogacar right now.
EA Vesuvio next and while Girdlestone was doing decent, sittin 22nd in GC his chances to improve are still there and it`s in especially the stage win goal. Their split time is -1 and it`s new best time at this point.
Cedevita reaches the finish line. They were faster than Zara in the end but for now 2nd behind Tinkoff. Same time though and this often means, some late mixing post stage. So let`s see.
EA Vesuvio next and that`s random now. Same time!
But they are placed 1st for now beating both Tinkoff and Cedevita.
Jura GIANTS next. At half time they were doing okay as provisional 3rd just 3s slower than Vesuvio and 2s behind Tinkoff. Though while the other teams came in with 8 riders, they are already down to 6.
But this doesn`t mean a lot it seems. Getting to the finish it`s the 4th team going same time and as if this wasn`t weird enough yet Puma makes it a full quintett shortly after...
Oxxo needs a huge ride here if Eastman is supposed to climb in the rankings and they have been 2nd and +1 at half time.
Though easily had the best ride towards the end. -5 and new best time. Their direct rivals are yet on the road but when checking off the top TTT teams, the gaps indeed go up a bit. 20s to Grieg as * rated, 34 to Evonik, 43 to Carlsberg, 59 to Ekoi and even down to 1'50 for Xero at the moment. So gaps are definitely possible here.
We definitely have a first swap in the GC. Stüssi was having quite a gap of more than 30s to Hirt but their TTT was strong enough to move him 30s ahead of the Moser rider!
Galta meanwhile will remain ahead of both of them.
Fredrik Strand Galta
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Colin Stüssi
Jura GIANTS
Jan Hirt
Moser - Sygic
MOL around Hauf next. 2nd in the GC before the stage, he won`t be able to attack Pogacar for sure but he might be attacked from McNulty, Phinney or even Eastman, Warchol. They finish in provisional 11th, 5s behind Lidl BUT also 42s behind Oxxo.
So we have some more movement here. Faglum Karlsson staying ahead of Galta is one thing, Eastman going all the way from 6th passing Haig is huge. This as well puts other riders yet to finish under pressure, McNulty, Phinney or Warchol. Also Latour not yet finished.
1
1
Tadej Pogacar
Cedevita
2
6
Ryan Eastman
Oxxo - Frisby
3
2
Jack Haig
MOL Cycling Team
4
8
Marcus Faglum Karlsson
Lidl Cycling
5
9
Fredrik Strand Galta
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
6
11
Colin Stüssi
Jura GIANTS
7
10
Jan Hirt
Moser - Sygic
King Power was in the late top10 with +11 at half time and similar in the finish with +19.
A quick calculation and Eastman is passing another rider here and is almost guaranteed a podium.
1
1
Tadej Pogacar
Cedevita
2
6
Ryan Eastman
Oxxo - Frisby
3
3
Brandon McNulty
King Power
4
2
Jack Haig
MOL Cycling Team
5
8
Marcus Faglum Karlsson
Lidl Cycling
6
9
Fredrik Strand Galta
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
7
11
Colin Stüssi
Jura GIANTS
8
10
Jan Hirt
Moser - Sygic
Fastned next and while Phinney is individually one of the very best against the clock, team wise it`s just enough for the first half. They had been 7th and +6 at the split, losing a position and in total 13s to Oxxo. So this means, Phinney is indeed also losing to Eastman GC wise but he is at the same time also winning two spots vs McNulty and Haig.
1
1
Tadej Pogacar
Cedevita
2
6
Ryan Eastman
Oxxo - Frisby
3
4
Taylor Phinney
Fastned
4
3
Brandon McNulty
King Power
5
2
Jack Haig
MOL Cycling Team
6
8
Marcus Faglum Karlsson
Lidl Cycling
7
9
Fredrik Strand Galta
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
8
11
Colin Stüssi
Jura GIANTS
9
10
Jan Hirt
Moser - Sygic
Polar around Latour started with a tiny gap of just 1s over Faglum Karlsson, also just 1s behind Eastman, which is pretty unrealistic though and +3 s to Warchol, which is more realistic again.
Their time is decent. +16 and +35 in the end, which means, they stay 2s ahead of Lidl, ahead of Carlsberg and so Latour started 7th and remains 7th for the moment and only Warchol is missing.
Gazelle being todays final team for whatever reason. They arrive at half time with +23 which shows a bigger loss than Polar before and Latour virtually goes up to 6th even passing Warchol.
In the end though it`s just +39, 4s, which would mean s.t. in between Latour and Warchol. But a 2nd check and Warchol might have been a reason why Gazelle was a lot stronger on the 2nd half. At one point he was dropped and the team powered on on the final kilometer. He has lost additional 4s to his team, and this makes him lose his GC spots to both Latour and Faglum Karlsson.
Pogacar easily best of the race and totally deserving victory. In the end a very dominant one while most others were close together.
Behind him 3 US riders of which Eastman made a huge jump onto 2nd while Phinney also goes onto the podium with the young generation McNulty is not yet ahead of them but it`s just a matter of time.
Haig from 2nd to 5th one of the biggest losses today which was only TTT related, Latour and Faglum Karlsson climb as Warchol is another rider who struggled in the TTT and is losing a bit after two excellent mountain performances.
Galta in 9th and Stüssi as said earlier has passed Hirt for the final top10 spot.
Other than the GC, Aker in general with 5 stage wins, the point jersey and in the end 14th in the GC also with a huge race.
