A total of 12 races were scheduled for June - thereof 11 that were available to PCT teams. Hence, we'll have a 2-part monthly update again, split by "higher" and "lower" race categories.
5 races are in this block, including 3 classics and 2 stage races, with one per type being C2.
But the first one was C1 rated, the sprinters' Hanko Classic in Finland. Unlike other races of this type we've seen this year, this one indeed went to the sprinters. More precisely, to Indosat's Abdul Halil. These 80 points surely came as a welcome surprise in their quest for promotion. Elias "Mr. Overperformance" Afewerki punched far above his weight once more, getting Colombini a great 2nd place with 56 points - plus 3 for De Bondt's 20th place. Vesely was a more expected podium finisher, taking 3rd place and 46 points for Sony - another promotion contender with a strong start to the month.
Then came the Tour of Vancouver - a C2 mountain stage race. Spark and Zwift decided to spend their mandatory C2 race days in Canada; neither were particularly successful in terms of scoring, though.
The race actually started in a great way for Spark, however, with Scott winning stage 2 from a bunch sprint! He was tied for the points lead after that great effort, and eventually finished 7th in the points standings. His 18 points were complemented by another 2 for Schleck's 23rd place in GC - 20 points in total for the Kiwis.
For Zwift, it took 5 days to really get going on their home continent - with Canal only narrowly missing out on winning stage 5. Flynn also finished 8th on that day. And that's actually all points they got from the entire race - 9 for Canal, 1 for Flynn, for a total of 10 points.
The 5-day Tropicale Amissa Bongo in Gabon then definitely kicked off the season for the PCT time trial specialists. Whereas some more versatile TTers already had their chances to shine in races like Hong Kong, Ukraine or Norway, the African event was one for the pure specialists as well.
So it's no surprise to see Zmorka winning the prologue and the entire race, after being surprisingly beaten in the longer time trial. The fact that he was beaten by teammate Sütterlin, who took 2nd in the GC, makes this an insanely high scoring race for Los Pollos, who also had Sterbini in the Top 10 and obviously won the team standings, too. And even though this was only a C1 event, they smashed the previous PCT highscore for 2023. The three best scores were 299, 298 and 297 - Los Pollos just went 30 points higher! 329 points for the Mexicans, who are definitely back in the promotion fight to say the least!
With one team clearly dominating, the others obviously couldn't get even remotely similar scores. In fact, no-one even scored half of LPH's points. Jura can still be satisfied with 2nd place, with Rekita being the best non-LPH rider in the race by taking 3rd in the closing ITT and the GC. Brunel in 10th, Marchewka in 13th and Bissegger in 17th - with Brunel and Bissegger taking 1-2 in U25 - plus 2nd place in teams are worth 154 points for the Swiss TT specialists.
It might be surprising to see McCormick in 3rd place in a TT-heavy race, given that the Americans don't really have a top specialist (although Daniel finished on a respectable 11th place). But they do have Walscheid! The German sprinter won two stages and the green jersey. And when speaking of jerseys, youngster Simmons won the KoM one... Pretty much everything that could fall into place for McCormick really did - is there a term for this? Murphy's Anti-Law? In any case, 142 points is a fantastic outcome for them, and I'd be surprised if they actually expected even any score close to that.
Assa Abloy were the only other team above 100 points by the way - definitely not much left for the others with the Mexicans being so greedy here...
The sprinters then had a second chance to win a classic this month, in Germany. Frankfurt Eschborn is pretty much the least flat of all flat classics, and with the tough course often taking its toll on the sprinters' support riders, there's often a mix of great rouleurs and sprinters in the first spots.
2023 was no exception to that - with Dzamastagic being successful with a late attack this time. 80 points for him and Lampre, which could be crucial in their fight for promotion. Houle proved everyone that he's still a great rider despite his first decline, taking 2nd place. Tesfaye Heyi added some depth points to bring Xero's score to 59. 3rd place went to Groenewegen and Fastned, with their sprinter getting 46 points - just 2 more than Assa and 5 more than Sony.
The final race in this "lower category block" was the Monterrey TTT, with 4 PCT teams attending (and scoring). Defending champions Genii were going for the three-peat, but two current CT outfits just had stronger TTT lineups. Still, it was a strong 3rd place and 40 points for the Luxembourgers. Local team Los Pollos just missed out on the Top 5 in their home race, scoring 25 points for their 6th place. Right behind them were Glanbia, whose 7th place was rewarded by 20 points. Bralirwa only managed to get the final scoring position (12th) for 5 points.
Without much surprise, Amissa Bongo was the race having the highest impact by far. Hence, it's fairly straightforward that Los Pollos win this block by a landslide - 414 points for the Mexicans, who participated in all races but Vancouver.
2nd place - with just 168 points, or roughly 40% of LPH's points - goes to Jura - also mainly due to their Tropicale performance, with only a handful points added in Frankfurt. Assa Abloy are just 4 points back in 3rd place, but they might still be a tad disappointed with that outcome; they were surely hoping for more in Gabon.
It was a surprising 3rd place for McCormick in Amissa Bongo, and this leads them to a still surprising 4th place in this block, scoring 148 points in Gabon and Germany. Indosat round off the Top 5, mainly thanks to their Hanko win. 125 points for the Indonesians.
Two teams were close behind, though, with both Lierse and Sony scoring 120 points for a shared 6th place. Lampre with the Dzamastagic upset in Frankfurt are 8th at 94 points, meaning only the Top 7 had a score above 100.
Zalgiris and Xero round off the Top 10, but in particular behind the latter it's been close. From Xero with 61 points, it's just 21 points down to Genii with 40 points in 17th! Colombini, Kraftwerk, Bralirwa, Fastned, Sauber and Spark are all in this batch, too.
Again just 7 points down, we have Glanbia with 33, followed by Popo4Ever with 28. At the bottom, we have 3 teams with a bagel; UBS and DuckDuckGo didn't race, so that's obvious, whereas Trans failed to score in Frankfurt. Tryg and Zwift with 9 and 10 points respectively did score in their only race, which must however be pretty disappointing for the latter, spending 7 days for a low outcome.
Team
Han
Van
Tro
F-E
TTT
Total
1
Los Pollos Hermanos
24
0
329
36
25
414
2
Jura GIANTS
0
0
154
14
0
168
3
Assa Abloy
11
0
109
44
0
164
4
McCormick Pro Cycling
0
0
142
6
0
148
5
Indosat Ooredoo
80
0
21
24
0
125
6
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
36
0
84
0
0
120
7
Sony - Force India
46
0
33
41
0
120
8
Lampre - Pinarello
14
0
0
80
0
94
9
DK Žalgiris
16
0
53
0
0
69
10
Xero Racing
2
0
0
59
0
61
11
Colombini Cycling
59
0
0
0
0
59
12
Kraftwerk Man Machine
28
0
0
28
0
56
13
Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes
8
0
40
0
5
53
14
Fastned
5
0
0
46
0
51
15
Sauber Petronas Racing
0
0
49
0
0
49
16
Spark-BNZ Racing
0
20
25
0
0
45
17
Genii Hyundai N Cycling
0
0
0
0
40
40
18
Glanbia
12
0
0
1
20
33
19
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
20
0
0
8
0
28
20
Zwift Pro Cycling
0
10
0
0
0
10
21
Tryg - Gobyk
0
0
0
9
0
9
22
Team UBS - Tissot
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
DuckDuckGo - Everesting
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
Trans Looney Tunes
0
0
0
0
0
0
Partial April Ranking | PTHC/HC
This block is the larger one, including 6 races, thereof 5 stage races, thereof 4 in PTHC. So tons of points available for the strongest riders!
First came Franceville Classique, the cobblers' huge chance of scoring big because of the "classic" actually being a 2-day stage race this year.
One team that definitely did take their chance for big points were UBS! While Spengler didn't have a great season so far, he definitely redeemed himself in Gabon. 4th on day 1, 6th on day 2 - because of the huge time gaps on the second stage, that was "only" enough for 6th place in GC, but that's still the highest finish of a PCT rider! Furthermore, Jacobs (20th) and Bohli (27th) added Top 30 GC places as well, with Schäppi (38th) making the Top 50. Spengler scored 113 points; overall, it's 164 points for the Swiss team.
Spengler's 113 individual points actually are more than any other PCT team managed to score. Lampre came closest with 111, which mostly was due to a great team effort. Daniel took 10th in GC and 59 points, with Van Keirsbulck (21st), Thwaites (32nd), Kumara (33rd) and Riesebeek (36th) scoring 52 points in total to bring Lampre's tally to 111.
Despite having the 2nd best GC result of a PCT team, Stallaert and Bralirwa only managed to score the 3rd highest amount of points. Their Belgian leader finished 7th on stage 1, and 8th on stage 2 and in GC - a flat tire might have cost him an even better result. It's 82 points for Stallaert, with Okbamariam (30th) and Teggart (45th) adding 20 more points to make it 102 for Bralirwa.
By the way, UBS were the 5th highest scoring team overall, with Lampre and Bralirwa being 7th and 8th respectively. Definitely some very good PCT performances in Africa!
The first of two HC races came next - the only classic in this block, Pro Hallstatt in Austria. We witnessed a dominant win by Olivier, netting Fastned 140 points. Higuita proved that being a great hybrid can be just as valuable - or even more - than "just" being a strong climber, taking 2nd place. Aular added some more points with his 22nd place, for a total of 103 for Los Pollos. Padun then took a good 3rd place for Popo4Ever, with Vasyliv adding some depth points for 87 in total.
And then, the big PTHC stage racing block, kicked off by the Tour of East Java. Formerly a 2-day event as well, it has now been extended to 4 days; 3 for the sprinters, 1 for the GC.
Let's say that the PCT sprinters did a great job, with the first 2 spots in the points standings taken by them. The points win by Bonifazio - following a 5th place and a stage win - was one of the reasons for Lierse to end up being the highest scoring PCT team. Their sprinter scored 77 points, with Novak being rewared with 100 points for his 6th place GC finish. Covi and Piccolo contributed some minor points as well - overall, it's 183 points for the Italo-Belgians!
The fight for 2nd best team was fierce once more. And sometimes, a single KoM sprint can be worth more than a GC podium, which was the case here. Choi was first on the race's sole HC climb, taking the dotted jersey. He also finished 8th on GC, for 119 points in total. Kozhatayev in 23rd had a strong race, too, with Shirota (39th) and Tratnik (49th) adding some depth points as well. In total, it's 164 for the Indians.
Which is 4 points more than Indosat scored (160). Yates did a fantastic job, taking 3rd on stage 3 and in the GC, worth 142 points. Unfortunately for the team, sprinter Abdul Halil never really got going, only contributing 3 points for a 6th place on the final day. Ahmad actually added more points for taking 40th in GC (and 4th in U25). But overall, their manager can't really be unhappy with a 40 PpRD outcome.
And last but not least, finally a race for PCT stage racers only - well, almost, with just two CT teams interfering. And one of them even managed to steal the KoM jersey...
But it was still the PCT teams that took the big points. And it's obviously no question who took the biggest chunk: a stage win, a 2nd place, the GC win plus the points win - clearly Eastman was the Man of the Race! He showed no notable weakness the entire week, and even on the final hilly stage, where he should have been most vulnerable, he sprinted to 2nd... It's 276 points for the American, with Main just managing to squeeze into the Top 50 to add 5 more points. 281 crucial points in Glanbia's fight for survival - and a foreshadowing of what we can expect in ToA in September?
While 1st place was obvious, 2nd place isn't at all. In fact, we have 5 teams within just 15 points of each other from 2nd to 6th! The ones winning the race for 2nd were Lierse - mostly thanks to a commanding win by Oomen on the final day. He completely phoned it in on stage 2, though, throwing away a very likely 2nd GC place (with Eastman being untouchable). Now he "only" ended up in 5th place... and scored 110 points. But unlike Glanbia, Lierse got some more decent points - mainly from De Plus, who won stage 3 and finished 20th in GC. Mareczko with a 2nd place on day 5 and Van Gils finishing 4th in U25 added some points as well - all in all, these contributions sum up to 171 points for Lierse. Not bad after a horrible stage 2.
3rd place then goes to McCormick, after another rather anonymous yet rock solid race by McNulty. Americas supertalent finished 3rd in the GC, and obviously got yet another white jersey for his collection. Warbasse was the team's 2nd highest GC finisher in 28th place, with Kuss making the Top 50 as well. Boswell's 4th place on day 3 was worth some points as well - and all of these four plus Seigle also scored points for 3rd place in the team standings. McCormick's total score is 162 - another great step away from any potential relegation danger. Or even more?
The other three teams finishing close to the podium are Sony (155), Lampre and Colombini (both 154).
Just like in the C1/C2 block, we have a clear winner. It's not quite factor 2, but Lierse stand clearly above the rest! #1 in East Java, #2 in Tour de Suisse, #2 in California - definitely a huge month for the Belgians! 641 points, that's definitely a lot - enough to get back in the promotion race?
McCormick also were expected to do well with two McNulty races - and they did do well. 2nd place with 387 points, but with 2 races (or 6 RD) less. Anyone still fearing relegation?
Glanbia surely still do fear relegation, but that Eastman win in California could mark a turning point in their season. 364 points in total for the Irishmen, 3rd place this month.
UBS, the clearly most successful team in Franceville, takes 9th with 276 points, with Fastned rounding off the Top 10 11 points back.
Trans, Sauber, Xero and Jura are the other teams above 200 points. We then had a close fight for 15th place, with Genii, Zwift, DuckDuckGo, Kraftwerk and Los Pollos separated by just 15 points, ranging from 186 down to 171.
The bottom 5 go to Bralirwa, Zalgiris, Assa Abloy - all of which scored above 100 points - Spark, and finally Tryg. Two (now former?) Top 5 teams are in the bottom 5 in this block - what will the impacts on the overall rankings be? Well, let's first look at the full numbers of this block, and then at the full June update. Well, almost full, you know...
The massive scoring in the "more valuable" block was enough to bring Lierse to the top in June! 761 points is a great outcome, and with 29 race days spent that's a PpRD of 26.24. Which is 3rd best this month, so clearly a big step towards the promotion spots!
3rd place is for McCormick, the last team above 500 points. 535 points are a great outcome, and should definitely wipe away any potential fears of relegation. With a PpRD of 23.26 - #4 this month - they can rather look up than down...
Which also holds for Indosat at first sight - 451 points and 5th place - but they used up 7 additional RDs compared to Sony. Which makes it a PpRD of "just" 15.55, which is a midfield value. That's quite a different story for Lampre, who scored 11 points less - 440 in total - but only took 19 race days to reach this tally. 23.16 points per race day is Top 5 material, too - yet another team potentially knocking at the door of the Top 5.
Colombini are the final 400+ points team, with 401. It looks like Reis has been "fixed" in this version - which should mean the end of any potential relegation fears for them, too. That's a different story for Glanbia, who scored 397 points - but they were last in the previous update, it's unlikely these 397 points will put them clear of the relegation zone.
Jura are next, scoring 369 points - with only a midtable PpRD this time, though, which should be good news for some of the chasers. Popo4Ever round off the Top 10 with 332 points.
Fastned only take 11th place in June - but given that they only used 12 race days to score 316 points, they're still the division's #2 in terms of PpRD this month! Which is a whole different story for Assa Abloy, who are next - 289 points, but 25 race days spent to get there. 11.56 is definitely a very low PpRD - only 7 teams did worse - and could be pretty bad news for their promotion ambitions.
Rounding off the Top 15 are three teams that are just 2 points apart from each other - Xero, Sauber (both 278) and UBS (276). Of these, UBS can be the happiest with an 18.4 PpRD average, whereas Sauber were just a little bit more efficient than Assa.
It's then a 30 points gap down to Trans, followed by Kraftwerk, Genii and Bralirwa. Especially the latter cannot be happy with their June racing at all, doing even worse than Assa and also potentially endangering their promotion challenge.
The bottom 5 are Zalgiris - the last team above 200 points - Zwift, DuckDuckGo, Spark and Tryg. The latter also are the only team below 100 points - but with 11 RDs were also the least active team in June.
Team
C1/C2
PTHC/HC
Total
RD
PpRD
1
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
120
641
761
29
26.24
2
Los Pollos Hermanos
414
171
585
15
39.00
3
McCormick Pro Cycling
148
387
535
23
23.26
4
Sony - Force India
120
357
477
22
21.68
5
Indosat Ooredoo
125
326
451
29
15.55
6
Lampre - Pinarello
94
346
440
19
23.16
7
Colombini Cycling
59
342
401
22
18.23
8
Glanbia
33
364
397
22
18.05
9
Jura GIANTS
168
201
369
23
16.04
10
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
28
304
332
19
17.47
11
Fastned
51
265
316
12
26.33
12
Assa Abloy
164
125
289
25
11.56
13
Xero Racing
61
217
278
17
16.35
14
Sauber Petronas Racing
49
229
278
20
13.90
15
Team UBS - Tissot
0
276
276
15
18.40
16
Trans Looney Tunes
0
244
244
15
16.27
17
Kraftwerk Man Machine
56
176
232
17
13.65
18
Genii Hyundai N Cycling
40
186
226
20
11.30
19
Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes
53
158
211
20
10.55
20
DK Žalgiris
69
134
203
23
8.83
21
Zwift Pro Cycling
10
183
193
23
8.39
22
DuckDuckGo - Everesting
0
181
181
18
10.06
23
Spark-BNZ Racing
45
91
136
30
4.53
24
Tryg - Gobyk
9
83
92
11
8.36
Full Ranking
Despite a slightly less successful month - 9th in points and 13th in PpRD - Jura are still leading the division after the month of June! They currently total 2,350 points; being among PCT's most active teams so far, that's a PpRD average of 22.17.
They have even slightly extended their lead, to 172 points, but only due to the fact that Fastned participated in way less races. The Dutchmen increased their overall PpRD once again, and are now again projected to finish ahead of the Swiss.
Bralirwa may have had a bad month, but their great work in earlier months still allows them to hold onto 3rd place - the same as last month. They're also above 2,000 points now, and even though their PpRD has dropped to 21.11, they're still projected to finish 4th - and hence to promote!
On the other hand, Los Pollos have clearly stopped their steady downfall - and although they just gained one spot in June, 2,020 points in 86 days of racing now result in a 23.49 PpRD average - top of the division! Anyone had already written them off?
Written off, that probably holds for Lierse - but the Belgians, top team in June, made a huge jump up from 12th all the way to 5th! From having another mediocre year, they're now fully involved in the promotion race, just one month later! Their main disadvantage compared to other teams might however be their number of race days used - for example, they spent 20 RDs more than Los Pollos, who still are almost 200 points ahead. Currently, 8 teams have a better PpRD than Lierse - but let them have another month like June, and things will look differently!
The race for promotion has gotten really, really close now. 24 points between 5th and 6th - and Sony in 7th place are just 4 points further down! They did however race quite a lot already as well, but with Choi in great shape, anything seems possible.
The other teams that look to be fully in the race for promotion - less than 100 points behind 5th place - are Lampre and Indosat. Especially the Italians did a great job in June, whereas Indosat may need to become more efficient again. Their PpRD currently only projects them in 10th place, so there's some work left to be done.
But there's actually yet another team silently making progress, and getting closer and closer to the Top 5 - in terms of PpRD that is. McCormick did lose one spot this month, and with 1,672 points are almost 200 points behind 5th - but they were 300 points off last month, and they've increased their PpRD to 19. 1.5 higher than by the end of May, and just 1.5 behind Assa...
Sauber and Colombini are next, 1,278 and 1,217 points respectively. The latter round off the Top 15 and now have a pretty promising PpRD, unlikely to be dragged down to the relegation zone. But you never know - they're definitely not safe yet, either, with just a 260 points margin...
Kraftwerk, DuckDuckGo and Tryg are the final teams above 1,100 points - and actually even above 1,000. Furthermore, all of them have quite a lot of races left to do, making them feel rather comfortable. But with more or less just 200 points down to the relegation zone, "comfortable" probably isn't a thing yet.
But the bottom 6 teams still have quite some work to do. 4 of them are separated by just 61 points - Zwift, Zalgiris, Genii and Trans. Genii definitely aren't looking great for now, having spent 105 race days already - for the 2nd lowest PpRD of the division (9.01). Zwift currently are on the last safe spot, but just 8 points ahead of Zalgiris and 19 clear of Genii...
Despite their great California performance, Glanbia still are deep in the relegation area, taking 23rd and 2nd last place. But with 796 points, they're now just 170 points behind safety - compared to 370 last month, they made quite some progress. Could the Tour of America duel between Powless and Eastman be decisive?
After another miserable month - lowest PpRD of all teams - Spark have now taken over the red lantern. A PpRD of 6.14 projects them to finish only just above 1,000 points this year - clearly not the way they expected this season to go! Can Madrazo and Bobridge finally, finally turn things around and actually get some really good points? We'll see - July might be a big test for them actually...
The sprinters will get their chances in Torshavn, Paris - Tours and potentially in Philadelphia; the climbers have Eritrea and Andorra, the TTers Arab Tour and - at least the more versatile ones - Slovenia. And then there's Benelux for the randomness - or maybe for the Pidcocks of this world?
In any case, plenty of action right ahead - will we even see a fundamental shakeup of the Top 5?
And just some final thoughts, comparing the current update with the same one in 2022: There's no dominating team this year like we had Amaysim in 2022. Instead, the race for the Top 5 looks to be far closer - we only had two teams above 2,000 points by the end of June last year, we now have 4. Top 5 was with 1,800 points - this year, that's just 8th place (Lampre with 1,794).
Why is this? Well, on one hand because there's no dominator. On the other hand, because some teams really are falling off this year - only two teams were below 1,000 points by the end of June last year, this time we have 6.
Last year, a PpRD of 20 was needed for the Top 5; this year, the benchmark could definitely be higher, especially looking at the last (PTHC-heavy) month. We'll see, the next 4 months definitely shouldn't be boring!
After a month of hibernation, Alberto Dainese stepped back into action in June. But 21 points combined from Hanko and Frankfurt definitely won't make him happy. Still, he holds onto the lead, now totalling 678 points.
Our new #2 is Dylan Groenewegen, who did even worse in Hanko but considerably better in Frankfurt, to pick up 51 points and move up one spot. 629 points for the Dutchman.
Sam Oomen had two races in June - both were pretty successful, with 276 points scored in total. Which propels him up to 4th, starting from 19th place. 579 points currently.
The Top 5 is rounded off by the division's top cobbler - which, as expected, now is Joeri Stallaert. He was solid in Franceville, picking up 82 points and taking over the final Top 5 spot.
On the other hand, Edward Theuns didn't have the Franceville card to play, and 3 points in Frankfurt weren't enough to defend his place. Down to 6th from previously 4th place.
But Theuns' Frankfurt points were still enough to only just fend off Eddie Dunbar, who is just one point down with 541. And it could've been even better if not for a weird final stage in California... He ended up gaining only one spot, from 8th to 7th.
Finally, Matti Manninen rounds off the Top 10. 481 points currently are enough to do so - but teammate Higuita is pretty close behind now, trailing by just 7 points.
Dropping out of the Top 10 are Meintjes (7 -> 14) - who will almost certainly strike back in July - and Stannard (10 -> 17).
Besides Oomen and Choi, McNulty was another big improver this month, jumping from 48th to 13th. Yates improved from 45th to 26th - and Reis even from 130th to 29th.
But all these improvements aren't much compared to Eastman; previously totalling 10 points and sitting in 285th, he now has 308 points and is 28th... Improving by over 250 spots to jump inside the Top 30, you usually just see these kinds of moves at the start of the year...
We said it before - July has some more interesting racing, and should have an impact on the individual rankings as well. But for now, this is what we have by the end of June:
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
I think for us this is likely to be a high water mark. So far we have done well by scoring reasonably in nearly every stage race we are in. But remainder of the season doesn't set up as well so I expect the PpRD to erode. ToA is obviously the big target and it would be good if Boswell can get his act together and put in some decent performances in his final maxed season.
But really we are way ahead of where we had hoped so we don't have much (any) reason to complain.
Looking forward to witnessing a tight promotion battle.
Decent month for us, says a lot that you can be the 5th best scoring team and lose places. Good to see Lierse dominant and scoring as they should be.
California was a bittersweet experience. Dunbar held a decent GC position all race and got a stage win to boot, but lost out on a definite 60-70 points with whatever the fuck that last stage was which could be crucial later on.it was a gamble sending him there and he exceeded expectations until the stage I actually thought he’d excel in, well what happened happened.
Huge month coming up for us, I think we have 6 Yates/Dunbar races? In July. We basically need to top the July scoring list to have a shot at promotion at this point I think.
Thanks for the awesome update as usual Fab, very very much appreciated.
We did what was necessary from the races in June, with everyone delivering barring Jungels in Tropicale. With Dauphine ongoing and Choi being good again this year, hoping we can keep the pressure up on those above us. It is so close for that final relegation spot that we can't afford to have too many off days.
Sadly a case of too little, too late. We finaly score big, but wasted too many race days. Assa Abloy just needs to finish a race to overtake us, while Sony, Lampre and even McCormick are also dangerous. Looking up, I can't see Jura, Fastned and Pollos missing out on promotion. That leaves Bralirwa, who had a downfall towards the end of last season as well, but it's hard to root against them.
Still, we put up a fight this month (although I agree with your sentiment we lost a 2nd place in California). If everyone gives me me their best (looking at a certain Italian rider), we can at least put some pressure on the promotion spots.
Thanks for another comprehensive update, Fabianski!
As expected, a difficult month for us, and unfortunately we couldn’t make the most of the races that did suit us either. Looking forward to July and August, which are the make-or-break months for us with many races that should suit us well. Hopefully we can maintain our current PpRD and reclaim a top 5 position.
Still hovering above the relegation line... Like you said, I think the Tour of America showdown between Powless and Eastman will be huge. And I fear our former GC leader will be out for some vengeance.
But have to find a way to stay up because back-to-back relegations would be tragic.
As expected, we couldn't compete with the top teams this month. We don't have a top PCT stage racer, and with 14/23 RDs being spent in Switzerland and California - plus 2 in Hallstatt where we didn't have a top contender as well - a rather low PpRD had to be expected. In that sense, I guess we can be rather satisfied with the outcome.
Of course, with a bit of luck we could have achieved more. We had Schmid in Switzerland who would have been a perfect fit for two hilly stages, or breakaways. He did almost nothing. We had Stüssi in California, who was inexplicably weak. The lower Top 10 spots actually were a "must", given the riders who ended up there, so that's easily 50-60 points thrown out of the window for no apparent reason. Frankfurt was rather bad as well, although within the expected range.
On the other hand, Rekita definitely overperformed in Amissa Bongo (with some others below par, though), making up for part of the California failure. All in all, 400+ points would definitely have been doable - but maybe we'll be lucky again later, or maybe we've already used up all our luck.
So I do suppose that Los Pollos or Fastned will take over the lead by the end of next month - if the former do the same in Arab Tour as they did in Tropicale, I guess they could reach ToA-like scoring in just 4 days... In any case, both LPH and Fastned should easily promote now, as they're also projected 1st and 2nd as per their current PpRD.
Bralirwa are having an unexpectedly rough time. Stallaert had some bad luck in Franceville, and their subtop riders weren't as "lucky" as in some races before. But I guess with Benelux (Stallaert) and Eritrea (Meintjes), they should have some good scoring opportunities in July. In the long run, however, it's worrying that Meintjes only has Eritrea, Morocco and Japan left (at least that's what his schedule in Bralirwa's HQ says), with the cobbles season almost over as well. It could definitely come down to whether Izagirre has another ToSA-like performance in him or not - otherwise I could unfortunately see them drop out of the Top 5 once again
Lierse have woken up now, but if I'm not mistaken Oomen only has something like 8 RDs left. Gamper should do well in Arenberg and probably in Benelux, but as for all cobblers, his main part of the year is basically done. They do have strong alternatives like Novak (East Java!) or De Plus who could score well, but they'll have to be pretty efficient in the remaining races. Because Assa should be strong, too - Arab Tour will be crucial for them, and also Germany and Denmark next month, with their TTers. Dainese could win all his remaining races, but that's far from secure. Faglum has been as rock solid as ever, but how many races does he have left? Gesbert has been below par - but all in all, they should have enough potential to achieve promotion this time.
Among the teams in 7th to 10th, I think Sony and Indosat have the best chances of moving up. Sony still have some Choi, Vesely and Benoot races - if the latter lives up to his skillset, I could well see them in the Top 5 in the end. Indosat may have spent lots of race days already - but if I'm not mistaken both Yates and Dunbar still have a combined total of 40 RDs left and will cover most of Indosat's remaining races - which could easily be worth 1,000 points just by these two. If their sprinters continue to be lucky every now or then, I can definitely see them go up.
I don't fancy Lampre's chances that much tbh. Yeah, they haven't raced that much, and their PpRD looks fine. And they'll probably rock Benelux with Daniel & his teammates. But to promote, I guess Monsalve would need to punch above his weight, and Coutinho would need some more great results. It's definitely not impossible, though - but they might just lack the top-level PCT leader. And maybe some minimum TT skills, to be honest.
McCormick are looking great for now, especially with their subtop puncheurs (Bagioli, Narvaez) doing a great job so far, and Walscheid being pretty successful. And then obviously the McNulty points - which however will be restricted to his ToA scoring for the rest of the year. Which is why I share UUs PoV that they might struggle holding onto their current PpRD. While it's not excluded that they still go up, it'd take an awesome team performance.
At the bottom of the table, the biggest surprise might be Zalgiris. Halvorsen just had too many fails so far - relying on a sprinter really is risky in these more recent versions. Guldhammer also had an off-day in several races, destroying a good GC. And Smith probably just isn't made for PCT - too weak to compete for the GC, too strong for breakaways. And finally, Moscon's training hasn't paid off yet, plus Beniusis hasn't been overly lucky. They need some riders to reach their expected form if they don't want to be in serious relegation danger.
Glanbia should have some hope again, now that Eastman has shown his muscles in California. But even winning ToA and Japan alone won't be enough to keep them up I'm afraid - so who else can step up?
Seeing Spark and Trans so far down isn't overly surprising to me, and neither is it for Zwift. Rumors say that Powless will do ToA - which really needs to turn out being the right choice for them, otherwise back-to-back relegations could be a dangerously realistic scenario...
Every ranking I expect to see us drop and every time we are hanging on in there in the top 15.
That pprd difference is going to cost us eventually but somehow we keep on putting it off and we've even opened up a 300 point gap to the bottom 6 making me more confident of staying up.
Nobody in the top 50 is probably something we need to work on for future seasons, but 5 in the top 100 and another in 106th means our scoring has been shared around really nicely.
We're back in business thanks to a great performance by Higuita in Hallstatt and even more amazing performanc by our time trialists in La Tropicale. We can't allow ourselves to start slacking again though, with some very important races coming up and hopefully solid depth scoring by guys like Aular and Zepuntke as well.
Thanks for another superb write-up, Fab, and congratulations on still leading the division
