And so the 2023 Vuelta reaches its end. This year the end is a 45k individual time trial through the streets of Madrid. The course is largely flat so it will primarily be a test of power.
The specialists who have been suffering since the TTT on stage 6 will have their chance at glory and they dominate the favorites list. But with 20 stages in the legs this stage will also require the ability to recover and that capacity tends to lie with the GC contenders. The two strongest TT riders among them make this list in Geoghegan Hart and the veteran Tenorio.
Aside from the stage win today is also the last chance for a move in the GC. The standings and abilities among the top 11 are shown below. With over 3 minutes separating 11th from 12th it seems like the top 11 is already fixed.
Rank
Rider
Behind
TT
1
Silvio Herklotz
-
74
2
Merhawi Kudus
+ 2'03
72
3
Lachlan Morton
+ 1'36
73
4
Pavel Sivakov
+ 2'30
76
5
Tim Wellens
+ 0'14
72
6
Pierre Latour
+ 1'04
70
7
Ki Ho Choi
+ 2'04
75
8
Joao Almeida
+ 3'21
73
9
Justo Tenorio
+ 1'08
78
10
Caio Godoy
+ 0'15
67
11
Tao Geoghegan Hart
+ 0'46
78
Ironically the two riders most under threat from the rider behind them, Sivakov and Tenorio, are two of the strongest time trial riders, and both should easily hold their places. Perhaps the most likely switch is between 10th and 11th where Hart trails the weakest TT rider of the group, Godoy.
The team’s competition is the only jersey really in play. There, Tinkoff trails EA by 2’42, that gap could definitely be closed across 3 riders on a 46k course. ZARA sit third but their 32 minute gap probably can’t be closed.
Nyoni has made it to the last day and for that his reward is to start the time trial in the pouring rain.
We’ll split out coverage of the last 11. Before that we will look at the riders in two groups of roughly 90.
The First 90 Riders
Overview
This group covers riders 1 hour and 50 minutes and more off the GC lead. Most of the top TT riders are in this group with many starting early. If the rain eases off that might prove to be a disadvantage.
Recap
Leung is the second rider to start and he makes sure Nyoni’s time on the hot seat is short. He goes ahead by 1’16.
But just two riders later he hands the hot seat to Viennet, who goes 6 seconds better. His time 53 minutes 23 seconds.
But that time also only lasts a handful of rider before Durbridge, one of the top favorites, goes 38 seconds better. Durbridge does it with a steady first segment and a scorching 2nd and 3rd.
Atkins puts in a surprise best time at the first check but fades over the rest of the course to finish 55 seconds down in 4th.
Howson, another top favorite, does the opposite with an unspectacular time at the first check but a finish just 14 seconds off Durbridge, good enough for 2nd.
Cheung was 3rd at the first check and 2nd at the 2nd check but lost 48 seconds to Durbridge in the last segment to fade to 6th at the finish.
Turek followed a similar pattern, posting strong times at the intermediates but losing a lot of time in the last segment. He finished in 7th, 51 seconds down. Ahead of him Groselj, who had less impressive splits, took over 5th, 47 seconds down.
Lammertink proved that going out more judiciously was the answer, he completes the first segment in 17th place, similar to Durbridge, and then matches the Australian the rest of the way to snatch the lead by 1 second.
The next big favorite, Irish Champion Mullen took a different approach, setting the best time at both the first two checks. At the second check he held a 33 second lead on Lammertink. And while he gave most of that back he did enough to take over the lead by 4 seconds.
Nareklishvili set the 2nd fastest time at the 2nd check but faded to 6th at the finish. Shortly after his teammate Christodoulos took over 5th giving Cedevita 3 in the top 7.
Zakarin took over that 5th spot for Tinkoff 27 seconds down and 48 seconds better than the current top EA rider, Gunnlaugsson.
The last notable time in this group was from Hayter, who finished 32 seconds down, good enough for 6th.
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Former Vuelta champion Gesink gets a warm reception from the Madrileños in his last Vuelta.
Hot Seat
Starting Slot
Name
Time
Improvement
190
Nyoni
54'46
-
189
Leung
53'30
1'16
187
Viennet
53'23
0'06
183
Durbridge
52'44
0'38
150
Lammertink
52'42
0'02
142
Mullen
52'38
0'04
Standings with 90 Riders Finished
Spoiler
The Next 90 Riders
Overview
The IT riders who are stronger on the climbs are in this group. They may have more left in their legs than the first set of contenders. Early on we will have Cataford, Oliveira, and Sterobo. Late in this group will come more GC type riders like Conci and Vlasov.
Recap
Cataford puts in a strong ride moving into 4th, just 15 seconds down but is almost immediately passed by Oliveira who goes 1 second better.
Sterobo settles for 8th, 31 seconds down.
Cabrera lost 58 seconds, a solid time that EA will need if they are to retain the teams lead.
Few riders challenged the top 20 for a long time after that. Vlasov was the next contender. He would also be the 6th rider for Tinkoff to finish. With 5 riders in for both team this was the situation in the team competition:
Tinkoff
EA
Rider
Min
Sec
Rider
Min
Sec
Gap
Arslanov
54
30
Rucigaj
54
31
TTI +0'01
Rikunov
53
55
Gunnlaugsson
53
53
EAV +0'02
Zakarin
53
5
Cabrera
53
36
TTI +0'31
Total
TTI +0’30
Tinkoff will need to find some bigger gaps if they are to take the team’s jersey.
Vlasov finished 9th, 32 seconds down.
Conci was next home and finished 6th, 19 seconds down. His powers of recovery not making a dramatic difference against the pure TT guys.
Girdlestone came in 1’37 down. Both he and Vlasov put in top 3 times for their team but Vlasov’s is a much bigger gain and Tinkoff’s advantage is up to 1’34.
Mamykin finished 3’13, so no help to Tinkoff but also a warning to EA as he is a similar TT rider to Godoy.
Kirsch lost 2’05 which isn’t good enough to improve EA’s time either.
Tinkoff
EA
Rider
Min
Sec
Rider
Min
Sec
Gap
Rikunov
53
55
Girdlestone
54
15
TTI +0'20
Vlasov
53
10
Gunnlaugsson
53
53
TTI +0'43
Zakarin
53
5
Cabrera
53
36
TTI +0'31
TTI +1'34
With only their GC man left each, Tinkoff need 2’43 to beat EA for the teams jersey which means Sivakov needs to beat Rikunov’s time by 1’09 (assuming Godoy does not improve the result for EA, which seems unlikely). That means he needs to come within 10 seconds Mullen's time.
Out on the course Geoghegan Hart has already passed his two minute man Formolo so the battle for the top 10 is on.
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Conci wraps up a tour that might have earned him the best domestique jersey, were there such a thing.
Hot Seat
Starting Slot
Name
Time
Improvement
142
Mullen
52'38
-
Standings with 179 Riders Finished
Spoiler
The Final 11 Riders
Overview
Two things at play in the last 11 riders, the team’s jersey and final GC positions. The time gaps looked like this coming in:
Rank
Rider
Behind
TT
1
Silvio Herklotz
-
74
2
Merhawi Kudus
+ 2'03
72
3
Lachlan Morton
+ 1'36
73
4
Pavel Sivakov
+ 2'30
76
5
Tim Wellens
+ 0'14
72
6
Pierre Latour
+ 1'04
70
7
Ki Ho Choi
+ 2'04
75
8
Joao Almeida
+ 3'21
73
9
Justo Tenorio
+ 1'08
78
10
Caio Godoy
+ 0'15
67
11
Tao Geoghegan Hart
+ 0'46
78
It is still raining despite the famous riders on the course.
Recap
Geoghegan Hart came close to a stage podium, finishing just 9 seconds down in 4th.
Tenorio was a little weaker coming home 8th, 19 seconds down. Still a stage and GC top 10 for the Spanish legend. He also passed Godoy on the course, not a good look for the Brazilian.
Godoy struggled home 3’15 down. He loses 10th to Geoghegan Hart. As expected, that isn’t a top 3 time for EA.
Almeida finishes 1’30 down, 45th place and not quite good enough to hold off Tenorio, he drops to 9th in GC. He will win the young rider’s jersey by a country mile.
Choi finishes in 19th, 50 seconds off the pace. A solid Vuelta for him.
Latour loses 1’44. Good enough to hold on to 6th in the GC. When coupled with two stage wins not a bad 21 days at the office.
Wellens will have hoped to gain a little on Latour but a very similar time for him, +1’43. He will have a top 5 GC but be a little frustrated he couldn’t do more with his team’s work.
Sivakov is next home and the last man with any hope of taking the stage. He doesn’t, 10th place on the stage, 0’25 seconds down. Tinkoff comes in just 15 seconds short on the team’s Jersey. EA win the team’s jersey, they put a man in the successful break on Stage 17 and Tinkoff could never claw that time back.
Morton finishes off a quiet GC 3rd by losing 1’21.
Kudus is 20 second slower than Morton. He takes a comfortable 2nd but maybe if he had more firepower with him he could have made the winner’s life a little harder.
Of course, the winner is the incomparable Herklotz, it seems like it might take a whole team of Kuduses to make his life hard. He loses 53 seconds (24th) to the stage winner. After a very long stay on the hot seat Mullen is confirmed the winner of Stage 21.
Herklotz gains 48 seconds on Kudus and wins his second Veulta a Espana by almost 3 minutes.
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Geoghegan Hart powers his way to a GC top 10.
Tenorio wraps up what is likely his last serious GC run with a top 10 finish.
Herklotz enjoys a relaxing training ride through the streets of Madrid.
Vuelta a Espana 
