The organizers think that a sprinter will win here which is not too big an assumption given the profile, though there have been some successful breaks / late attacks in the last editions. They seem to prefer a mix of flat and sprint skills though as otherwise Groenewegen and Demare should be even higher on the list, especially the latter could well profit from his supreme hill skills given the amount of hill climbing in the race.
The riders are on the road. With the rain and all the small hills this won’t be a fun experience for the fast men.
The first attack comes right after the start from Zambanini. He’s quickly joined by a bunch of riders and the peloton had quite some work to keep the group at 9 riders. The group consists of:
Ahmad Berhe Laurance Montenegro Moutsios Seigle Stoenchev Tiberi Zambanini
There are some young talents in this group we’ll surely hear of in the years to come! But in the present they have an advantage of about 4 minutes 20 km into the race.
There’s not much happening for the next racing hours except the riders getting wet. The break got a gap of up to 6 minutes but the pack started controlling early and constantly reduced the gap to 3’25 with about 95 km to go. Maybe there will be some more action before the final as the riders have already started the more difficult part of the route with a constant up and down until about 10 km to the finish line. Hopefully we’ll see some attacks, and may it just be riders who don’t want to be cold.
40 km later the picture is mostly the same. The break is still 2’32 ahead and there has been the occasional split in the peloton, but nothing that lasted.
32 km to go and finally something of importance happened! While the break still has a lead of about 2 minutes, Demare must have had a puncture as he’s behind the pack chasing alone! Even if he makes it back that can’t be good for his chances.
Demare finally made it back only to be still at the back of the peloton when it split into three parts! He’s the only bigger name in the last group apart from maybe Rowe and McLay, but there are quite some prominent names in the second group! Houle, Degenkolb, Stallaert and Van Asbroeck are among the ones who’re on the wrong side of the split. But at least they’re quite at the front of the group, so they’ll still be in contention if they make it back unlike Bol who’s among the last riders in this second group. And it’s no good situation for Tafjord as with Bertilsson, Eislers and Waersted all three of their sprinters are in this group too!
The next kilometres see a fierce race in all the groups, resulting in Berhe, Laurance and Tiberi getting dropped from the break that only has a lead of about half a minute left. Further back there was some regrouping going on which resulted in a group of 21 to be the peloton. None of the favourites distanced earlier has made it back, though Houle, Stallaert and Van Asbroeck are only 20’’ back. All of the others (including Demare) are in some of the groups further back, having a gap in the range of one to one and a half minutes to the peloton.
With 15 km to go Houle, Stallaert and Van Asbroeck made it back to the front group that’s just reeling in the remnants of the break. The next bigger group is 1’40 behind, so the winner will be in this group of 33.
Or will he? The front group literally took its legs up and only 1 km later the chasers have nearly made contact. Among the first of them is Demare whose team is doing the work in this group, but he brings all the other sprinters with him!
And with 9 km to go and the last hill done we have a peloton of 133 riders. Assa Abloy is now doing the work for Dainese, though it’s not clear why they let all the others come back first as they had some riders (including Dainese) in the first group. There will definitely be some talking about race tactics in their team bus later on.
4 km to the line and we now see a full Assa Abloy train, though Seigle somehow managed to get between them. Behind him sits Dainese who’s followed by Groenewegen (and some other breakaway riders). The other sprinters are there too.
1.5 km to go and there’s much the same picture. Nobody has launched his sprint yet and there are still 5 (!) Assa Abloy riders in front of their captain (plus now two McCormick riders which is odd given they have no real sprinter here).
Now that’s a picture you don’t see often: Assa Abloy is in front with 6 riders all sprinting after Dainese (furthest to the right) launched his sprint with 1.2 km to go. Everyone else seems to be in awe as well as it doesn’t seem like anyone wants to join them yet.
Finally the other sprinters launched as well. It’s all chaotic and Dainese has quite a gap with 400 m to go.
Dainese
Rickaert
Vesely
Groenewegen
Afewerki
Demare
Degenkolb
Rowe
Stallaert
Halvorsen
Nur Hasan
Dainese starts celebrating some way to the line but he’s in no danger to get Zabel’d as he still maintains a serious lead. Behind him it’s still close though:
Dainese
Vesely
Demare
Groenewegen
Degenkolb
Afewerki
Rowe
Stallaert
Halvorsen
Rickaert
Nur Hasan
And Dainese wins indeed. A great win for him after his team worked so hard in the final!
Behind him it’s much closer. Especially Demare and Groenewegen make it tough to call though the jury awards the Frenchman with second place. Vesely comes in 4th with Afewerki 5th. Stallaert gets 6th after a strong finish while Degenkolb is the best CT rider in 7th. Nur Hasan, Hayakawa and Rowe complete the Top 10.
Dainese celebrates his win, hopefully in fresh dry clothes.
[HC] Lisbon Classic 
