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Tour of South Africa Discussions
ivaneurope
Tour of South Africa

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Profiles/t1_southafrica.jpg


The 12th annual Tour of South Africa is upon us. As usual there are 5 hilly stages + flat team time trail with no changes to the layout used for years. The only change here is the category - rather than being a C1 race, it will be 1 level up and will be run as a HC category race, meaning that the field will consist mostly of the PCT teams. The terrain may not look as hard, but don't let that deceive you. But to win the race, you need to have also a strong supporting cast in the TTT - a weak TTT train could wreck a rider's GC ambitions in an instant.

Last year

1Bruno BorgesIndosat Ooredoo22h49'11
2Alex AranburuCarlsberg - Danske Bank+ 1'16
3Aidan Van NiekerkProject: Africa+ 1'24
4David GauduCedevita+ 1'33
5Tejay Van GarderenSauber Petronas Racing+ 1'38
6Sven Erik BystromTrans Looney Tunes+ 2'05
7Lilian CalmejaneTrans Looney Tunes+ 2'07
8Tiesj BenootPhilips - Force India+ 2'21
9Tomohiro KinoshitaVoyagin - Bird+ 2'40
10Marc HirschiSauber Petronas Racing+ 2'50


Bruno Borges was victorious last year when the race was C1 category. Well, he won't defend his title as the Portuguese was acquired by ZARA - Irizar who are in the PT division. Neither of his podium mates would be there either - Carlsberg - Danske Bank got promoted to PT so Aranburu can't participate, while Aidan Van Niekerk got signed by ISA - Hexacta (another team from PT). You have to look at the 5th placed Tejay Van Garderen to see a returning rider. Considering that the Top 4 are now in PT, could we see a similar trend once again?

The TTT trains

TeamAll 8Top 6Top 4
Assa Abloy70.873.375.6
Bralirwa - Stevens73.475.376
Colombini Cycling67.97071.5
DuckDuckGo - Everesting70.872.274.5
Fastned6566.869.8
Genii Hyundai N Cycling71.97475
Glanbia73.475.776.5
Indosat Ooredoo68.370.771.5
Jura GIANTS75.57778
Kraftwerk Man Machine72.173.375.3
Lampre - Pinarello65.968.769.8
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam69.872.376.5
Los Pollos Hermanos74.176.278.3
McCormick Pro Cycling72.674.275.8
Saeco57.658.258.8
Sauber Petronas Racing71.673.775.5
Sony - Force India70.573.375.3
Spark-BNZ Racing73.975.376.5
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska71.473.574.5
Team UBS - Tissot74.576.377.8
Trans Looney Tunes68.571.373.3
Tryg - Gobik71.474.276
Xero Racing71.172.374
Zwift Pro Cycling67.970.872.8


Looking at the TTT trains, I'd say that many of the teams here are within a shot of Top 5 finish. In terms of overall depth Jura GIANTS is clearly the favorite, but Los Polos Hermanos has the best top quartet of TT riders among all teams. However, while TT stat is important there were from time to time some upsets in that type of stages.

The favorites

FLMOHIRSSPAC
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/coc.png Kelderman707182756772
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/sfi.png Benoot717581746971
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/snz.png Bobridge716781716777
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ubt.png Buchmann717681746573
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/aab.png Gesbert717480786873
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/mck.png Boswell707180736576
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/tlt.png Waeytens707180706673
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/trg.png Demare736780728281
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/brs.png Izagirre697279695861
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/coc.png Gebrezgabihier687079746769
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/dev.png Stannard737379766978
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/kmm.png Kanerva696479696476
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lmp.png Turgis736779787077
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lpu.png De Plus727779736172
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lph.png Higuita697879786675


By all metrics pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/coc.png Kelderman should be the favorite. The condition here is that his team must not loose time in the TTT stage - otherwise, it will be difficult to cut the deficit to riders such as pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/sfi.png Benoot, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/snz.png Bobridge or pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ubt.png Buchmann who have much stronger TTT squads. Los Polos Hermanos - the strongest 4-rider TTT team, has its own favorite in pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lph.png Higuita, but considering he's inferior on TT compared to his teammates, he may lose some time in the TTT stage. Jura weirdly doesn't have a rider on this list despite possessing the strongest TTT train with all members in it - pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/jur.png Errazkin is their best bet, but his HI skill is a bit lacking compared to other hilly specialists.

Could a climber provide an upset?

FLMOHIRSSPAC
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/aab.png Faglum Karlsson717973756068
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lph.png Higuita697879786675
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ghn.png Sicard697874736064
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Taaramäe687871705366
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Pluchkin677868686064
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lpu.png De Plus727779736172
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/jur.png Masnada717776756373
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/zpc.png Burke697776746071
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ino.png Kolar657775715466
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/mck.png Warbasse697774725964
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/sfi.png Kozhatayev747774755269
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Vasyliv717774726267
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/tlt.png Munoz647773695770
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/zpc.png Tejada687773765970
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lph.png Osorio697772725668


This isn't your typical climber race, but you never know - if a climber is in a good position and decent hilly skill, he may provide an upset. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/aab.png Faglum Karlsson fits the bill, but TBH the IESN's bet here is on pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lph.png Higuita, who was mentioned earlier, is the best hilly rider in this list and if he can hang onto the wheel of his strongest TT teammates, he could have the ingredients for an upset. Special mention goes to three veterans who want to the prove that there's still something left in the tank and don't write them off just yet - pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ghn.png Sicard (the strongest hilly rider of the trio) and the Popo4Ever duo of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Taaramäe and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/p4e.png Pluchkin. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/lpu.png De Plus, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/jur.png Masnada, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/zpc.png Burke and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2023/Micros/ino.png Kolar like Higuita are euqally strong on both mountain and hills and could catch the favorites off guard.

The startlist

Spoiler
ChavesJohan EstebanAssa Abloy
Faglum KarlssonMarcusAssa Abloy
GesbertElieAssa Abloy
Gonzalez SalasMarioAssa Abloy
GougeardAlexisAssa Abloy
HänninenJaakoAssa Abloy
MoscaJacopoAssa Abloy
PaillotYoannAssa Abloy
HadiJanvierBralirwa - Stevens
IzagirreIonBralirwa - Stevens
MugishaSamuelBralirwa - Stevens
PolittNilsBralirwa - Stevens
TesfatsionNatnaelBralirwa - Stevens
UwizeyimanaBonaventureBralirwa - Stevens
VeronaCarlosBralirwa - Stevens
YoungDarrenBralirwa - Stevens
BdadouYoussefColombini Cycling
CabanasOscarColombini Cycling
GebrezgabihierAmanuelColombini Cycling
KeldermanWilcoColombini Cycling
OleiFedericoColombini Cycling
TiberiAntonioColombini Cycling
VliegenLoicColombini Cycling
XandriJanColombini Cycling
DebesayMeksebDuckDuckGo - Everesting
HenaoSebastianDuckDuckGo - Everesting
KusiClementDuckDuckGo - Everesting
OroscoKempDuckDuckGo - Everesting
PonceJoelDuckDuckGo - Everesting
QuaadeRasmusDuckDuckGo - Everesting
SiposZoltanDuckDuckGo - Everesting
StannardRobertDuckDuckGo - Everesting
BovenhuisJasperFastned
De KleijnArvidFastned
DenzNicoFastned
DuricDordeFastned
Fisher-BlackFinnFastned
HessmannMichelFastned
Van HooydonckNathanFastned
VansevenantMauriFastned
BartaWilliamGenii Hyundai N Cycling
BechkovAleksGenii Hyundai N Cycling
KittelMarcelGenii Hyundai N Cycling
NikiemaBachirouGenii Hyundai N Cycling
NsengimanaJean BoscoGenii Hyundai N Cycling
PavlicMarkoGenii Hyundai N Cycling
PokäläSamuelGenii Hyundai N Cycling
SicardRomainGenii Hyundai N Cycling
CheyneJordanGlanbia
DowneySeanGlanbia
DunneConorGlanbia
MainKentGlanbia
McKennaSeanGlanbia
O'LoughlinMichaelGlanbia
OramJamesGlanbia
ScotsonMilesGlanbia
BilbaoPelloIndosat Ooredoo
CahyadiAimanIndosat Ooredoo
FirdausPrasetyoIndosat Ooredoo
KolarMichaelIndosat Ooredoo
RohendiTetenIndosat Ooredoo
SalinasJonathanIndosat Ooredoo
SetiawaAndreas Odie PurnamaIndosat Ooredoo
WibisonoRachmad NokaIndosat Ooredoo
BisseggerStefanJura GIANTS
BrunelAlexysJura GIANTS
ErrazkinXubanJura GIANTS
JanssenChristophJura GIANTS
KungStefanJura GIANTS
MarchewkaKrzysztofJura GIANTS
MasnadaFaustoJura GIANTS
RekitaSzymonJura GIANTS
BoilyDavidKraftwerk Man Machine
DestriboisAlex AriyaKraftwerk Man Machine
HelmeSasuKraftwerk Man Machine
HoBurrKraftwerk Man Machine
KanervaJoniKraftwerk Man Machine
LudvigssonTobiasKraftwerk Man Machine
MathisMarcoKraftwerk Man Machine
TesfomSirakKraftwerk Man Machine
BaronciniFilippoLampre - Pinarello
MedvedevSergeyLampre - Pinarello
MeurisseXandroLampre - Pinarello
MilanJonathanLampre - Pinarello
RiesebeekOscarLampre - Pinarello
RoweLukeLampre - Pinarello
TurgisAnthonyLampre - Pinarello
Van KeirsbulckGuillaumeLampre - Pinarello
BagioliNicolaLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
CoviAlessandroLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
De PlusLaurensLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
FedeliAlessandroLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
GamperPatrickLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
PotockiViktorLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
SajnokSzymonLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
SiddikovDilmurdjonLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
AbolajiFatiuLos Pollos Hermanos
HiguitaSergioLos Pollos Hermanos
Lopez NolascoLuis EnriqueLos Pollos Hermanos
NareklishviliBekaLos Pollos Hermanos
OsorioAlejandroLos Pollos Hermanos
SterbiniLucaLos Pollos Hermanos
SütterlinJashaLos Pollos Hermanos
ZmorkaMarlenLos Pollos Hermanos
AffiniEdoardoMcCormick Pro Cycling
BagioliAndreaMcCormick Pro Cycling
BoswellIanMcCormick Pro Cycling
DanielGregoryMcCormick Pro Cycling
MatsudaShoiMcCormick Pro Cycling
MohammadFikri AzkaMcCormick Pro Cycling
NarvaezJhonatanMcCormick Pro Cycling
WarbasseLawrenceMcCormick Pro Cycling
Blanca ParejaNicholSaeco
FrancoAlejandroSaeco
PetrucciMattiaSaeco
SilvaPedroSaeco
VendrameAndreaSaeco
VerreAlessandroSaeco
ZambaniniEdoardoSaeco
ZordanAndreaSaeco
DulanjanaSachinSauber Petronas Racing
HirschiMarcSauber Petronas Racing
LiphongyuNawutiSauber Petronas Racing
MaccagliAndrea EnricoSauber Petronas Racing
MisbahMushinSauber Petronas Racing
NoiaCarloSauber Petronas Racing
PellaudSimonSauber Petronas Racing
Van GarderenTejaySauber Petronas Racing
Ahmad ZamriMuhamma AfifSony - Force India
BenootTiesjSony - Force India
GohChoon HuatSony - Force India
JungelsBobSony - Force India
KozhatayevBakhtiyarSony - Force India
OcampoVictor AlejandroSony - Force India
TratnikJanSony - Force India
Van DijkeMickSony - Force India
BevinPatrickSpark-BNZ Racing
BobridgeJackSpark-BNZ Racing
BrandtTylerSpark-BNZ Racing
De LunaFlavioSpark-BNZ Racing
ErdenebatBilguunjargalSpark-BNZ Racing
MarryattJakeSpark-BNZ Racing
RatiyVadimSpark-BNZ Racing
YatesJoelSpark-BNZ Racing
AndriafenomananiainaZouzouTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
BilyiMaksymTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
GladyshRomanTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
GolovashOleksandrTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
PapanovMartinTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
PluchkinAleksandrTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
TaaramäeReinTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
VasylivYuriyTeam Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
BarbioAntonioTeam UBS - Tissot
BlumEliaTeam UBS - Tissot
BuchmannEmanuelTeam UBS - Tissot
DillierSilvanTeam UBS - Tissot
FominykhDaniilTeam UBS - Tissot
HaugardPhan AgeTeam UBS - Tissot
SchäppiMartinTeam UBS - Tissot
SequeraPedroTeam UBS - Tissot
CalmejaneLilianTrans Looney Tunes
KnoxJamesTrans Looney Tunes
KorosecRokTrans Looney Tunes
MunozCristianTrans Looney Tunes
PiaskowyEmanuelTrans Looney Tunes
SenyenovRomanTrans Looney Tunes
StimulakKlemenTrans Looney Tunes
WaeytensZicoTrans Looney Tunes
DemareArnaudTryg - Gobik
FrisonFrederikTryg - Gobik
HoelgaardDanielTryg - Gobik
HonoreMikkelTryg - Gobik
IversenRasmusTryg - Gobik
NorsgaardMathiasTryg - Gobik
NyoniSimiloTryg - Gobik
SleenTorjusTryg - Gobik
HouleHugoXero Racing
NovardiantoJamalidinXero Racing
SchomberNilsXero Racing
Tesfaye HeyiHenokXero Racing
Van NiekerkMorneXero Racing
Van WilderIlanXero Racing
Van ZylJohannXero Racing
VermeerschFlorianXero Racing
AckermannPascalZwift Pro Cycling
BurkeJackZwift Pro Cycling
CarrSimonZwift Pro Cycling
FraileOmarZwift Pro Cycling
JussaumeTristanZwift Pro Cycling
PickrellRileyZwift Pro Cycling
StrollLewisZwift Pro Cycling
TejadaHaroldZwift Pro Cycling


That's it from IESN as we hand over the reporting duties to Imladrik
i.imgur.com/rrQH4R2.png
i.imgur.com/KoxIGiG.png
 
Bushwackers
Looking forward to this race, though dreading Buchmann getting dropped in the TTT :lol:

Thanks for the preview Ivan!
 
DaveTwoBob
Thanks for the preview Ivan.

Hoping for some depth scoring from Kraftwerk but expectations are low.
Manager of Renault Classic [ICL]
Manager of Kraftwerk Man Machine [Man Game]
 
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Ollfardh
This could go really well or really bad. Thanks for the preview!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Fabianski
First goal race of the year - and I have to say the same as Ollfardh, could go really well or really bad.
The goal clearly must be to win the TTT here, or to get at least a podium. Los Pollos and UBS will be tough competitors once again - obviously hoping we'll have the edge again Wink
In previous years, the race wasn't overly selective, at least not in the first days - if we can somehow manage to get the race lead after the TTT, it could be a good race for us. If we get randomly dropped again, like in Ukraine, it will be a huge fail. I agree that Errazkin doesn't have the best hill stat, but I hope that -1 compared to Moscon (without training) won't hurt too much - and Moscon never really got dropped here.

Another interesting point will be to see how the TTT trains handle their puncheurs. We've seen Buchmann dropped in Pais Vasco, in a much shorter TTT - I'd guess that the teams rather slow down a bit to not drop their leader. Which might mean slowing down a lot, especially Tryg for Démare and Sony for Benoot. And it's another point where we should be rather well-off, with Errazkin being our weakest TTer with a stat of 70. And even he got dropped in Pais Vasco, hence the backup option in Masnada...

Long story short - hoping we'll do well, but it could also be a big failure. Hopefully the TTT saves us.

Thanks for the preview, and good luck to all!
 
Nemolito
Haven't been here before, but as the hilly stages don't look overly selective to me I hope our guys can do well in the TTT. And I definitely hope they don't drop Higuita, unless someone like Osorio or Lopez Nolasco is still in a decent GC position by then. But we'll see what the first four stages bring. Another Jura TTT show coming up, so Errazkin can win this one despite not being counted as a favourite I think Smile

Thanks for the preview to the whole crew of IESN!
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whitejersey
Our TTT is horrendous we're here with both Turgis and Meurisse though to chase stages, hoping for some good results! Thanks for the preview!
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Definitely in the camp of this could be pretty good or a disaster. After Strade and Ukraine we need a good performance from one of our top guns.

In theory we have a decent TT team and plenty of guys for protection in the hills. But Stage 5 worries me could easily tilt to the HI/MT guys, Warbasse is our option in that case, but he doesn't have much help.

Looking forward to the race, this has been a fun, close race in prior editions so let's hope that continues.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
Jakstar22
My TTT team isn’t the strongest and that’s the only part I’m worried about. I think Bobridge will do well here and I’m really hoping to see him get a high GC placing and hopefully a win!
 
MacC
Thanks Ivan, can really only hope that a strong TT allows Main or McKenna get a decent GC
 
cunego59
Tricky one to predict. We're in contention for a Top 5 in the TTT, probably with with Spark, Glanbia and McCormick (I agree with Fab that Jura, LPH and UPS should be the Top 3), and then it's all about if one or more of Izagirre, Uwizeyimana and maybe even Hadi after his recent breakout performance in the Basque Country can be in or near the front groups in the road stages to get a couple of decent GC results. It's a really tough startlist though, but we'll see. Good luck to everyone and thanks for the preview!
 
KaiserAdler
High hopes for a performance from Wilco. But I'm dreading a flop again.
i.imgur.com/ojg4YRA.png



Flop of the year 2023

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Ulrich Ulriksen
Exciting first stage, pretty pleased with Boswell and Narvaez both being present and Boswell definitely competitive. Although Narvaez being stuck in the middle with Kelderman probably stopped the second group getting a gap, which would have been nice and perhaps deserved.

Can't begrudge a Demare-Ackermann 1-2 on that stage. Congrats to Lief. Thanks for the report.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
Nemolito
Strong result by Demare, Ackermann and Waeytens. Congratularions to those managers. Not ideal for the others to already be 35 in red against Demare, as he could/should definitely score even more bonus seconds in the coming stages. Hopefully Higuita can keep the gaps as small as posible before stages four and five. Thanks for the great report, Imladrik Smile
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Fabianski
Well, not a great start, but in the end not much harm done. Once again, Masnada should have easily been up there with the top riders, but it looks like PCM thinks Errazkin should be our GC man. In this case, hoping for some far better positioning on the next stages then... But with S1 being the most likely one to yield some gaps, I can live with those 15". Just hoping Démare gets back to TDU mode, not getting too many bonus seconds... Obviously a deserved winner today though, congrats to lief.
For once, we were clearly lucky that there was no additional gap given, things definitely didn't look great there. So definitely some points to improve, but the strategy remains to not lose too much time ahead of the TTT. So far, that's what we did.

Thanks for the report to Imladrik, definitely a thrilling finale to follow!
 
whitejersey
Not really the result we wanted as we're here just for the stages and not for GC, Turgis looked completely out of it today hoping that it changes for the next stages.
 
Eden95
Congrats Lief, dominant win from Demare. Waeytens a strange podium addition here in front of the other competition.

Great day out for Prasetyo, going hard for all three classifications and leading the u25 even if just for tomorrow. Bilbao finishing around a bunch of favourites is a good sign he might get a lucky result here or there.

Thanks for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ

"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett
 
AbhishekLFC
Ok start for us, nothing special. Can only get better from here, hopefully!

Congrats to lief and thanks for the report Smile
 
roturn
Again kind of worrying that Vansevenant is riding in such late area, which did cost him points already in earlier events.

He really should do better than this. At least no real time loss here.
 
MacC
Thanks Imladrik.

I suppose I should give credit to McKenna when he does well....so here goes:
well done Seán- fine sprinting.

Now to hold on tomorrow and then see how the TT goes. Demare on fire
 
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