Down Under Classic Discussion
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seancoll |
Posted on 28-09-2023 22:35
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Domestique
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Down Under Classic
81.3km
It’s the opening day of the season and the PCT battle begins in the lands of Australia. We start with the Down Under Classic and one of the shortest and flattest races of the entire season. The 81.3km race has some minor undulations on a circuit, but none of those should create any major gaps. There’s a full set of 24 teams here with 5 CT teams and 19 from PCT.
History
The Down Under Classic has been a been a staple of the calendar since 2009. Every year has seen a group sprint and there’s no reason to think this year could be different. The race has seen two multiple times winners in Allan Davis (2011-2012) and Jacopo Guarnieri (2019-2020). Our two most recent winners will be attempting to join the multi-win crew as Fabio Silvestre returns for Bralirwa – Stevens and Lahcen Saber joins Mercatone Uno – Weba after he jumpstarted his CT individual title for Colombini-Alder AP in 2022. 2015 champion Mark Dzamastagic also returns for a chance for Lampre-Pinarello although he may be in a lead-out role this year.
It’s tough to imagine a scenario where this race doesn’t end in a sprint finish, so here are our best pure sprinters.
Team | Name | FL | ST | RS | SP | AC | FG | Fastned | Dylan Groenewegen | 73 | 74 | 71 | 82 | 81 | 59 | Tryg – Gobik | Arnaud Demare | 73 | 75 | 72 | 82 | 81 | 70 | Assa Abloy | Alberto Dainese | 76 | 75 | 76 | 81 | 82 | 64 | DK Zalgiris | Kristoffer Halvorsen | 76 | 74 | 71 | 81 | 80 | 70 | JEWA TIROL | John Degenkolb | 73 | 68 | 66 | 81 | 76 | 67 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Rick Zabel | 74 | 74 | 70 | 81 | 79 | 66 | Los Pollos Hermanos | Matti Manninen | 74 | 71 | 75 | 81 | 80 | 70 | Sony – Force India | Daniel Vesely | 73 | 74 | 68 | 81 | 80 | 61 | Lierse SK – Pizza Ullo PCTeam | Niccolo Bonifazio | 79 | 68 | 75 | 80 | 80 | 58 | Mercatone Uno – Weba | Lahcen Saber | 74 | 72 | 70 | 80 | 77 | 62 | Sauber Petronas Racing | Itamar Einhorn | 74 | 71 | 71 | 80 | 78 | 60 | Spark-BNZ Racing | Leigh Howard | 74 | 72 | 67 | 80 | 76 | 62 |
The top of the sprint field is exceptionally strong with Dylan Groenewegen and Arnaud Demare easily the strongest. Demare has the edge if the race is difficult from the start, but with such a short race the energy stats shouldn’t make too much of a difference either. Gronewegen has the best 2 person leadout crew with Matthews and Vinglering prepared to drive at the front for Fastned. With that, we expect Fastned to find themselves at the front of the peloton in the final kilometers.
Dainese comes with the strongest acceleration of the group which will be crucial if he can find the right wheels in the final. Dainese will also be supported by Ryan Gibbons as a top 3 leadout in the group. Degenkolb will probably be making his last true attempt at victory here and he brings the best single leadout man in Thomas Boudat.
Halvorsen will also play a significant factor in the final with not only one of the strong sprint/acceleration combinations, but also one of the strongest flat ratings of the group. If there is anyone who should be prepared for the final with full energy, Halvorsen may be your may. Bonifazio will also benefit from a strong flat rating. Vesely and Mattinen sit just outside the top 5 favorites, but their experience and skill combination have them ready to jump into the top slot if everything goes their way.
The remaining teams have still brought strong sprinters and the depth at this race is almost unmatched.
Team | Name | FL | ST | RS | SP | AC | FG | Bralirwa – Stevens | Fabio Silvestre | 77 | 68 | 69 | 79 | 79 | 69 | Colombini Cycling | Elias Afewerki | 73 | 77 | 70 | 79 | 80 | 68 | Glanbia | Dylan Kennett | 75 | 73 | 76 | 79 | 78 | 67 | Stela-Vita | Xhuliano Kamberaj | 75 | 73 | 73 | 79 | 78 | 64 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Roman Lutsyshyn | 70 | 69 | 73 | 79 | 80 | 58 | Team UBS – Tissot | Tom Van Asbroeck | 74 | 74 | 71 | 79 | 77 | 73 | Zwift Pro Cyclin | Bram Welten | 76 | 72 | 71 | 79 | 75 | 56 | Lampre – Pinarello | Luke Rowe | 77 | 74 | 68 | 78 | 78 | 74 | Manada Coyote | Gabriel Marin | 74 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 78 | 63 | Xero Racing | Hugo Houle | 77 | 75 | 70 | 78 | 77 | 69 | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Andrea Guardini | 69 | 69 | 64 | 77 | 77 | 71 | Trans Looney Tunes | Owain Doull | 72 | 71 | 70 | 73 | 73 | 63 |
Silvestre obviously stands out in this group as one of the previous winners and that experience may allow him to find the right route to the finish. Afewerki will also be looking to enter the repeat winner’s club… just for Colombini, and not his personal record, as he takes over the sprint role from Saber. Afewerki will pretty much be working alone so it’s about searching for wheels in the final run-in.
The depth of this sprint field means that almost every team has a shot at a top 5 in the final sprint, except for Trans Looney Tunes. Positioning will be key, and finding the right wheels will be a major challenge for anyone hoping for a top result. Still, find yourself in the right place with good legs and the victory could become yours.
Name | FL | ST | RS | SP | AC | FG | Marildo Yzeiraj | 77 | 74 | 74 | 62 | 71 | 85 | Taco Van der Hoorn | 75 | 76 | 69 | 56 | 66 | 84 | Alain Quispe | 80 | 62 | 60 | 66 | 73 | 84 | Peter Varga | 77 | 76 | 73 | 65 | 80 | 83 | Gasper Katrasnik | 81 | 72 | 76 | 63 | 72 | 81 | Olivier Lecourt De Billot | 75 | 74 | 73 | 61 | 74 | 81 | Torkil Veyhe | 80 | 66 | 71 | 56 | 78 | 80 | Moise Mugisha | 67 | 64 | 74 | 63 | 73 | 80 | Riccardo Putti | 69 | 74 | 71 | 59 | 67 | 80 |
While it is very unlikely that we’ll see a breakaway victory, there are many riders who prefer to attack over sitting in the group. Some extremely strong rolleurs with Quispe, Katrasnik, and Veyhe would easily be able to give the peloton a run for their money. We’ll see if any of these riders want to make a break for it, but there’s always the possibility that the sprinters don’t time the catch correctly. Here we see the strategy for Trans Looney Tunes with both Katrasnik and Lecourt De Billot being strong options.
We all look forward to opening day racing and everyone here will be looking for a jumpstart to their season. Ulrich will bring us the report for this early season classic, with many thanks to him.
Full Startlist:
Spoiler
Last name | First name | 2023 Team | Veyhe | Torkil | Assa Abloy | Matsumoto | Yosukue | Assa Abloy | Magnusson | Kim | Assa Abloy | Konychev | Alexander | Assa Abloy | Rickaert | Jonas | Assa Abloy | Gibbons | Ryan | Assa Abloy | Dainese | Alberto | Assa Abloy | Bergstrom Frisk | Erik | Assa Abloy | Mugisha | Moise | Bralirwa - Stevens | Habimana | Jean Eric | Bralirwa - Stevens | Silvestre | Fabio | Bralirwa - Stevens | Berhe | Welay Hagos | Bralirwa - Stevens | Willems | Jago | Bralirwa - Stevens | Okbamariam | Tesfom | Bralirwa - Stevens | Van Eetvelt | Lennert | Bralirwa - Stevens | Teggart | Matthew | Bralirwa - Stevens | Barbero | Carlos | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Barcelo | Fernando | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Sinkeldam | Ramon | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Guardini | Andrea | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Balloni | Alfredo | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Garcia Pierna | Raul | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Adriamihajanarivo | Herizo | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Domene | Ramon | Caja Rural Cycling Team | Jele | Kwanele | Colombini Cycling | Sprenger | Felix | Colombini Cycling | Borg | Luke | Colombini Cycling | Martino | Stan | Colombini Cycling | Tiberi | Antonio | Colombini Cycling | Afewerki | Elias | Colombini Cycling | Aquilani | Andrea | Colombini Cycling | Bonello | Daniel | Colombini Cycling | Räim | Mihkel | DK Zalgiris | Rodriguez | Brandon | DK Zalgiris | Schönberger | Sebastian | DK Zalgiris | Halvorsen | Kristoffer | DK Zalgiris | Herrada | Jesus | DK Zalgiris | Pszczolarski | Wojciech | DK Zalgiris | Frankovic | Mateo | DK Zalgiris | Bereznyak | Aleksandr | DK Zalgiris | Van der Hoorn | Taco | Fastned | Robeet | Ludovic | Fastned | Renard | Alexis | Fastned | Fisher-Black | Finn | Fastned | Matthews | Michael | Fastned | De Kleijn | Arvid | Fastned | Groenewegen | Dylan | Fastned | Vingerling | Michael | Fastned | Dunne | Conor | Glanbia | Eaton | Daniel | Glanbia | Healy | Ben | Glanbia | O'Loughlin | Michael | Glanbia | Kennett | Dylan | Glanbia | Oram | James | Glanbia | Bennett | Sam | Glanbia | Downey | Sean | Glanbia | Taubel | Christoph | JEWA TIROL | Schlechter | Pit | JEWA TIROL | Livyns | Arjen | JEWA TIROL | Degenkolb | John | JEWA TIROL | Malori | Adrian | JEWA TIROL | Boudat | Thomas | JEWA TIROL | Selig | Rüdiger | JEWA TIROL | Tesfom | Sirak | Kraftwerk Man Machine | De Buyst | Jasper | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Colombo | Filippo | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Juntunen | Antti-Jussi | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Zubov | Matvey | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Zabel | Rick | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Rumac | Josip | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Zhupa | Eugert | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Dzamastagic | Mark | Lampre - Pinarello | Medvedev | Sergey | Lampre - Pinarello | Rowe | Luke | Lampre - Pinarello | Van Keirsbulck | Guillaume | Lampre - Pinarello | Daniel | Maxime | Lampre - Pinarello | Milan | Jonathan | Lampre - Pinarello | Kooij | Olav | Lampre - Pinarello | Thwaites | Scott | Lampre - Pinarello | Verwilst | Aaron | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | Van Aert | Wout | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | Piccolo | Andrea | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | Weemaes | Sasha | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | Bonifazio | Niccolo | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | Calzoni | Walter | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | Quispe | Alain | Los Pollos Hermanos | Manninen | Matti | Los Pollos Hermanos | Galvan Ramirez | Oscar Samuel | Los Pollos Hermanos | Ulloa | Jose Gerardo | Los Pollos Hermanos | Ruiz | Robinson Steven | Los Pollos Hermanos | Abolaji | Fatiu | Los Pollos Hermanos | Aguilar Mendez | Jose Pablo | Los Pollos Hermanos | Hollmann | Juri | Los Pollos Hermanos | Samudio | Joseph Ivan | Manada Coyote | Bulux | Fredy Domingo | Manada Coyote | Arias Villanueva | Sergio | Manada Coyote | Mendoza | Bryan Fernando | Manada Coyote | Rojas | Gabriel Francisco | Manada Coyote | Chumil | Sergio | Manada Coyote | Marin | Gabriel | Manada Coyote | Andersson | Emil | Manada Coyote | Van Tricht | Stan | Mercatone Uno - Weba | Mozzato | Luca | Mercatone Uno - Weba | Consonni | Simone | Mercatone Uno - Weba | Malucelli | Matteo | Mercatone Uno - Weba | Kielich | Timo | Mercatone Uno - Weba | Saber | Lahcen | Mercatone Uno - Weba | Putti | Riccardo | Sauber Petronas Racing | Rossi | Diego | Sauber Petronas Racing | Noia | Carlo | Sauber Petronas Racing | Eislers | Sandis | Sauber Petronas Racing | Marzuki | Nur Amirul | Sauber Petronas Racing | Giulietti | Luigi | Sauber Petronas Racing | Einhorn | Itamar | Sauber Petronas Racing | Forcellini | Luca | Sauber Petronas Racing | Havik | Piotr | Sony - Force India | Kuroeda | Shiki | Sony - Force India | Ringheim | Jo Kogstad | Sony - Force India | Van Dijke | Tim | Sony - Force India | Kuroeda | Saya | Sony - Force India | Kooistra | Marten | Sony - Force India | Alben | Esow | Sony - Force India | Vesely | Daniel | Sony - Force India | Muhindo | Jimmy | Spark-BNZ Racing | Bevin | Patrick | Spark-BNZ Racing | Kopfauf | Markus | Spark-BNZ Racing | Battsengel | Amartuvshin | Spark-BNZ Racing | Mudgway | Luke | Spark-BNZ Racing | De Luna | Flavio | Spark-BNZ Racing | Howard | Leigh | Spark-BNZ Racing | Erdenesuren | Munkhtulga | Spark-BNZ Racing | Yzeiraj | Marildo | Stela-Vita | Demiri | Mikel | Stela-Vita | Touze | Damien | Stela-Vita | Batmunkh | Maral-Erdene | Stela-Vita | Allegaert | Piet | Stela-Vita | Kamberaj | Xhuliano | Stela-Vita | Merlier | Tim | Stela-Vita | Sarreau | Marc | Stela-Vita | Varga | Peter | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Tanovitchii | Nicolae | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Parashchak | Yaroslav | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Horvat | Ziga | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Bilyi | Maksym | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Manamalage | Nipuna Shira | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Kachur | Dmytro | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Lutsyshyn | Roman | Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska | Van Asbroeck | Tom | Team UBS - Tissot | Jacobs | Johan | Team UBS - Tissot | Balmer | Alexandre | Team UBS - Tissot | Brun | Nils | Team UBS - Tissot | Spengler | Lukas | Team UBS - Tissot | Stöckli | Jan | Team UBS - Tissot | Blum | Elia | Team UBS - Tissot | Fominykh | Daniil | Team UBS - Tissot | Katrasnik | Gasper | Trans Looney Tunes | Lecourt De Billot | Olivier | Trans Looney Tunes | Centrone | Ivan | Trans Looney Tunes | Kolev | Iliyan | Trans Looney Tunes | Sobrero | Matteo | Trans Looney Tunes | Stimulak | Klemen | Trans Looney Tunes | Moulingui | Clenne Morvan | Trans Looney Tunes | Doull | Owain | Trans Looney Tunes | Summerhill | Danny | Tryg - Gobik | Pedrero | Antonio | Tryg - Gobik | Kaloniatis | Georgios | Tryg - Gobik | Sleen | Torjus | Tryg - Gobik | Demare | Arnaud | Tryg - Gobik | Blume Levy | William | Tryg - Gobik | Kump | Marko | Tryg - Gobik | Currie | Logan | Tryg - Gobik | Tesfaye Heyi | Henok | Xero Racing | Novardianto | Jamalidin | Xero Racing | Lazkano | Oier | Xero Racing | Van Niekerk | Morne | Xero Racing | Duyvesteyn | Kees | Xero Racing | Houle | Hugo | Xero Racing | Vermeersch | Florian | Xero Racing | Strong | Corbin | Xero Racing | Fraile | Omar | Zwift Pro Cycling | Ryuki | Uga | Zwift Pro Cycling | Canal | Carlos | Zwift Pro Cycling | Pickrell | Riley | Zwift Pro Cycling | Girmay | Biniam | Zwift Pro Cycling | Walls | Matthew | Zwift Pro Cycling | Jussaume | Tristan | Zwift Pro Cycling | Welten | Bram | Zwift Pro Cycling |
Edited by seancoll on 29-09-2023 00:10
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jandal7 |
Posted on 29-09-2023 03:04
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World Champion
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Interested in what a weaker Houle can do. More than ever needing a late attack as the standard 8th-ish finish in a straight sprint in these races might be harder to get with 78/77. Obviously also have Tesfaye who was brilliant in the flat classics last year and Jams both of whom can score minor straight up or like Houle go for a late attack.
Looking forward to the season kicking off, thanks for the preview and coming report seancoll!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2
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Jakstar22 |
Posted on 29-09-2023 03:19
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I’m hoping for a good start for the team here with Howard. It’ll be a very interesting and quick race so hopefully he has the power to do well!
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DarkWolf |
Posted on 29-09-2023 06:47
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Well, Gabriel Marin faces some tough field here and although I would absolutely love a top 10 I'm satisfied if he can bring us some points from this race.
Thank you for the preview and good luck to all!
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knockout |
Posted on 29-09-2023 07:16
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Grand Tour Champion
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I will always cheer for Dzamastagic but never more than in this race. Time for some Dzamagic again
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!
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Eden95 |
Posted on 29-09-2023 08:10
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That’s about as strong as the PCT sprinting field can get - the 4 big boys + Demare! Glad I’m not here. Can’t wait for the report, looks to be a very exciting finish.
Thanks for the preview mate, was a good read
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett
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Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 00:29
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fjhoekie |
Posted on 29-09-2023 08:22
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Not bringing Aniolkowski to this shitfest seems like a good decision
Hopefully we will get to see some Varga magic again this season - on this parcours it should be fairly possible, and his ACC will always make him a contender in a race like this I feel
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
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MacC |
Posted on 29-09-2023 09:06
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Thanks Seancoll.
Looking at that field I think a top 10 would be a great start for Kennett, a real wake up call for Glanbia.
Good luck all
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roturn |
Posted on 29-09-2023 09:08
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Weird start for me in PCT here, but I kind of like it being a bit more flexible.
Now to the bad...When having the top top sprinter here, you likely should have a bit better support. Must hope that Matthews, Vingerling, De Kleijn can somewhat deliver a working sprint train. In especially Matthews should do decent with his flat/sprint combination.
It`s just one "test" here but hopefully the top sprinters won`t just fail in the wind against the 2nd row as this would mean a long season for Groenewegen, who always will be a top3 sprinter.
To the good. He is the top sprinter, so just go for it. He was always good when being able to follow others in 2nd or 3rd wheel. Now he must go for his own positioning around team mates. Not necessarily a bad thing. Ideally quickly being delivered into a top position and switching over to Dainese/Demare/Halvorsen I guess to have that extra meters slipstream.
Top3 a must here really for a nice season start as the rest of January not necessarily my best races. |
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cunego59 |
Posted on 29-09-2023 09:26
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Man, PCT sprinting is tough. Top 10 for Silvestre would be great, but can't be expected. Top 15 should be doable though. I hope Fabio can get back to his finest wheel jumping days and get the positioning right.
I wouldn't be surprised if Dainese dominates the PCT sprints this year (as much as you can dominate in this field) and starts with that here already. Would love to see some of the new teams do well in their opening races, I think Kamberaj and Saber have a better shot at that than Degenkolb, but who knows what he's still capable of. Good luck to everyone and thanks for the nice preview seancoll!
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Ollfardh |
Posted on 29-09-2023 09:56
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Let's just get the first disappointment over with. Thanks for the preview!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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whitejersey |
Posted on 29-09-2023 11:36
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First run of the Dzama + Rowe pairing, hoping for some late attacks as much like Jandal I dont think we're in the top 10 of this sprint field right now. Absolutely stacked startlist though, must admit I am a bit surprised to see Demare here but without his full programme I don't know if this was a throwaway race or not. On paper it should be a battle between Dainese and Groenewegen but honestly you never know! Thanks for the preview!
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AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 29-09-2023 12:51
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We come here with a strong flat line-up but Vesely looks to be a Top 5 contender at best. Think a Top 10 result to start the season should be satisfactory.
Thanks for the preview
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Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 29-09-2023 15:42
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Looking forward to start the season Guarnieri always did really well in this race, and knowing Dainese has similar qualities, I’m very hopeful about our chances! The big question mark for me is whether Gibbons will suffice as the last leadout-man. Other than that we have a strong team to support Dainese and also riders that can go on a late attack in Veyhe or Konychev should the chance present itself.
Thanks for the preview!
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Nemolito |
Posted on 29-09-2023 15:46
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We're hoping for a top 5, but with the creme de la creme of the PCT sprinters present in a very short one day race, things can always turn out very different of course. Thanks for the preview and good luck to all
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Mresuperstar |
Posted on 29-09-2023 16:25
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Not expecting much (how can you with a sprinting field this deep?). Hopefully the team can get some TV time and show off our new jersey.
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quadsas |
Posted on 29-09-2023 18:40
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Lets see if Halvorsen is a genetic freak and not normal
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KaiserAdler |
Posted on 29-09-2023 21:20
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Domestique
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I believe Afewerki can make it back to back Africans here! That or just having fun in our first race of the year! I wish everyone good luck!
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Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 29-09-2023 23:01
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Glad to miss this one, with DUC and Emilia in the same band we race on neither the first day or last day of the season.
I guess we are rooting for the CT teams to steal some points.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
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sammyt93 |
Posted on 30-09-2023 14:09
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Classics Specialist
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It feels weird to have a sprinter again after a few seasons without one, hopefully Einhorn gets off to a good start
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