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redordead's 2023 PCT prediction
redordead
Hello Smile

Back again this year with another prediction. Let's first see how bad my prediction was last year Pfft

Rank
Team
Coeff.
Actual Rank
Difference
1Bralirwa - Stevens
1,29
11
-10
2Amaysim Cervélo
1,23
1
+1
3Binance
1,13
6
-3
4Xero Racing
1,11
13
-9
5Carlsberg - Danske Bank
1,09
5
0
6Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
1,09
14
-8
7Zara - Irizar
1,07
2
+5
8Philips - Force India
1,07
8
0
9Kraftwerk Man Machine
1,07
7
+2
10Red Bull Zalgiris
1,05
15
-5
11Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
1,03
10
+1
12Voyagin - Bird
1,01
19
-7
13Assa Abloy
0,99
12
+1
14Cedevita
0,97
4
+10
15Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
0,95
20
-5
16HelloFresh - Lampre
0,93
9
+7
17Volcanica - Fox
0,91
22
-5
18Minions - Subwoolfer
0,91
3
+15
19Indosat Ooredoo
0,89
18
+1
20Strava
0,87
21
-1
21Sauber Petronas Racing
0,87
16
+5
22Crabbe-CC Chevigny
0,86
23
-1
23Project: Africa
0,80
24
-1
24Trans Looney Tunes
0,74
17
+7


I'm getting worse every year :lol:
One thing that remains somewhat the same is that I'm either pretty accurate about a team or totally wrong. It doesn't really matter whether it's at the top, bottom or middle of the table. On average the difference between the actual ranking and my prediction was 4.6 places. 0.3 worse than the 2021 prediction.

I will post about this year's teams in the next few days.

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
redordead
Teams Overview 1-8


Before the actual prediction I'll just take a quick glance over all the teams. Today I have the first 8 teams in alphabetical order. In the next couple days I'll go through all the teams before the final prediction.


Assa Abloy


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Dainese76626960757679648182647063
Max
25
580k
Gesbert71748064807878626873766666
Max
28
250k
Paillot70707180757468566364567180
Max
32
240k
Faglum Karlsson71797373787576566068667479
Max
29
160k
Chaves69757867737270535971686367
Max
33
100k
Gebremedhin69777464737476505575786664
Max
31
100k
Gibbons75596567737273607878656872
Max
29
140k
Konychev82616760777873637675766173
Max
25
85k
Gonzalez Salas70576080747667606154786180
Max
31
95k
Mosca71727563737568606575807168
Max
30
80k
Veyhe80666865667169515678807169
Max
29
55k
Rickaert78626965757573727573676870
Max
29
90k
Hänninen70707470717274556472716870
4.58
26
50k
Matsumoto73717064707369656575796967
4.42
27
50k
Kvist67697164737165606773777363
3.08
24
50k
Van Aert71696963707169577172787065
3.00
26
50k
Magnusson74697058706971586573796858
4.32
31
50k
Gougeard73667070727670686465786472
Max
30
50k
Hoole69686670707367706868696967
3.82
24
55k
Bergstrom Frisk67706762687068606062647662
3.37
24
50k

It's been a slowburn for Assa Abloy in PCT, but they were never in danger of relegation while developing Dainese. The Italian is now ready to take over the PCT sprinting scene. A trained Gesbert is now one of the most interesting puncheurs with those massive energy stats. Faglum Karlson is a decent stage racing leader, while Paillot and Gonzales Salas are one of the better TT duos. I won't be surprised if Assa Abloy finishes in the top 5.


Bralirwa - Stevens


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Stallaert77606758766880817976676658
Max
32
500k
Meintjes71807871777678576169717471
Max
31
405k
Silvestre77606672686972557979696276
Max
33
100k
Ndayisenga66787565696873526373726965
Max
29
95k
Tesfatsion67757661667173606876726362
4.49
24
85k
Uwizeyimana71767274767577505668695874
Max
30
95k
Eyob68767666746973556266727366
Max
30
75k
Teggart73626958767371767270556465
Max
27
60k
Izagirre69727975706964525861676875
Max
34
170k
Politt73636678707372605965696676
Max
29
55k
Okbamariam73666559707367767268657859
Max
32
50k
Mugisha67717562647471606373806461
Max
26
55k
Hadi68747274737071617471686974
Max
31
50k
Verona71546277727567596263606677
Max
31
130k
Mugisha76647074707471636268746468
Max
26
50k
Habimana69657062697063706671716766
1.00
22
100k
Van Eetvelt67706961737165576668636459
1.00
22
200k
Young71566174677271717272657074
Max
32
50k
Willems68576362717360557272666665
1.00
22
100k
Berhe67686766696668606166676464
1.00
22
50k

Bralirwa is again led by Stallaert who will try to maintain his status as the best cobbler in PCT. Meintjes has come in place of Madrazo. Both leaders have good support available to them and should do well. A declined Silvestre means Bralirwa is not likely to challenge at the top end of the table.


Colombini Cycling


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Kelderman70718270807573626772777170
Max
32
400k
Reis70817376787678565064666876
Max
31
350k
Afewerki73636463777081697980687071
Max
31
120k
Raileanu66777763747376565970696765
Max
30
120k
El Sabbahi77646964727677647877686872
Max
26
100k
Gebrezgabihier68707966747472536769776664
Max
29
180k
Petelin69787462707171505475726161
Max
27
100k
Xandri68767373687472606069757471
Max
29
85k
Blythe73516365716672797368696968
Max
34
90k
Feiereisen74626858736875637778616869
Max
31
50k
Vliegen71677761767070686674716967
Max
30
85k
Olei69667362737172517575626269
Max
27
50k
De Bondt76626757726968727476766157
Max
32
50k
Scarponi66757364686970546067688164
Max
34
50k
Cabanas68717174737068566166706775
Max
32
50k
Bdadou69637169696764707072736868
3.00
23
70k
Aquilani72646668697070647272686671
3.04
24
50k
Sprenger71666667726967656675717769
2.46
24
50k
Martino67716564717071676567696964
3.06
23
50k
Bonello70666867706969706666647068
3.05
23
50k
Jele65726252697169555468757854
2.00
23
90k
Borg67666761626562636771696762
1.00
21
50k
Tiberi65686568646661546067696767
1.00
22
150k
De Marigny-Lagesse67606366656967606868676567
1.00
22
10k
Quadrelli68545761676965586669696962
1.00
22
10k

I'm not a big fan of Kelderman and Reis. Both are pretty underwhelming as leaders. I do like the rest of the Colombini team though. If the leaders or maybe just one of them perform well then they should be alright, but if they struggle then it might be a long season for Adler.


DK Zalgiris


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Halvorsen76586563747180708180706168
Max
27
470k
Moscon71738066767775535973716970
Max
29
180k
Smith69787568727475596674757165
Max
30
185k
Guldhammer66797569717269676873696369
Max
34
160k
Budenieks69757563707572706974757261
Max
28
80k
Laas67747662687373556776685762
Max
30
50k
Beniusis71696079717372565767686878
Max
26
200k
Lasinis69777274737274596168676974
Max
26
100k
Pronskiy64777363737277586173737063
Max
25
85k
Losch73526562726875717879786366
Max
30
65k
Hagen68747565747271657172747264
Max
32
55k
Schönberger66727659737471576571757459
Max
29
60k
Frankovic74627164717870677476667166
Max
29
50k
Affonso69767273727074565468745373
Max
32
60k
Räim74626761737275717675766874
Max
30
55k
Herrada65747273707068536467706372
Max
33
50k
Pszczolarski73607074687267537172686577
Max
32
50k
Sossa67667157736969556165686758
1.00
22
170k
Bereznyak69666369667163575862636869
1.00
22
50k
Rodriguez71586164706858606969756763
1.00
22
75k

Halvorsen is still the main man for this Zalgiris team. He was excellent last year and will likely need to do so again, albeit the sprinting fields might be a bit tougher. Newly trained Moscon is probably the rider that will swing things for Zalgiris depending on how he does. The rest of the team is rock solid, worst case I see another mid table finish.


DuckDuckGo - Everesting


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Stannard73737967757674676978746968
Max
25
410k
Debesay75677472757970796978737474
Max
32
600k
Arndt71797656777672637175616456
Max
32
290k
Guerreiro71767762737377637272616762
Max
29
140k
Inkelaar64807064757679566074696964
Max
26
190k
Hayakawa73636550756876577979757350
Max
31
120k
Petit75516460747076717976646765
Max
33
100k
Henao65767666717371536370686764
Max
30
150k
Rachid70777074737376586268696673
Max
28
60k
Sipos69687076757370556164706777
Max
32
55k
Kulikovskiy72647164697377607677656766
4.84
26
55k
Vahtra71587055737270747472686555
4.88
27
50k
Zegklis70697164717270656771767764
3.00
27
50k
Quaade70536277706863586061655975
Max
33
50k
Montenegro67667263687069626370686663
3.06
25
50k
Orosco68726967716569606364676364
3.57
24
50k
Kusi69647073677172616468726773
3.44
27
50k
Ponce66686968666970646266686868
2.02
26
50k
Diaz Suarez66656862657064646469647361
1.00
22
50k
Guerreiro68606257686669586869656157
1.00
23
15k
Eiriksson65555660706563626365606662
1.00
22
10k

It's a bit weird to see Gustav's team without a great TTT. Debesay is still overpaid, but PCT is a much better division for him and I wouldn't be surprised to see him mix it up with Stallaert and Theuns. Arndt is a proven rider and I think Stannard will be very nice already. Inkelaar might be a bit redundant though.


Fastned


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Olivier72817669768077596471707169
Max
31
430k
Vansevenant73737869777770626978787071
4.57
24
345k
Groenewegen73616764747185598281596472
Max
30
385k
Van Hooydonck73637172757469816172646772
Max
28
150k
Cras68787273787777586067616770
Max
27
125k
Vanhoucke71777272717276636768727073
Max
26
85k
Matthews75586463706571657877646363
Max
33
50k
Denz71747667707070656373716571
Max
29
65k
De Kleijn70617560717176667475646467
Max
29
60k
Van der Hoorn75607055766960755666846652
Max
30
60k
Vingerling70546164716574677878566775
Max
33
50k
Robeet76616761727565746769776967
Max
29
55k
Bovenhuis73587159747072746268796559
Max
32
50k
Debesay65687259696970626372716559
3.89
24
50k
Duric68606960717269716470657159
2.00
23
50k
Renard73616866677466666868696668
3.29
24
50k
Hessmann70676571736767536067677569
1.00
22
315k
Pluimers68606660707364646765696263
1.20
23
50k
van Sintmaartensdijk71616366676767636370636266
1.00
22
50k
Fisher-Black62636462656962605971696772
1.00
22
145k

I like not love this team. Olivier will be pretty good by keeping away from TTs. Groenewegen should be one of the best sprinters. I like Cras and Vanhoucke as depth stage race scorers. I'm not a big fan of Van Hooydonck and Vansevenant needs to make that wage worth it.


Genii Hyundai N Cycling


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Penasa70807470757277505776686470
Max
32
230k
Sicard69787472747376536064736172
Max
35
220k
Nikiema69707762727472657076747163
Max
26
110k
Velasco73727660757168646976756962
Max
28
110k
Seboka61806253637073505267758453
Max
29
50k
Kiskonen74596868777777697777687270
Max
26
80k
Robov71727666727370506971766666
Max
30
75k
Paprstka75626962747068757072697863
Max
31
70k
Barta69767273717470547267655675
Max
27
70k
Pavlic69757272717374636869707074
Max
30
60k
Yechezkel74556465717270766473706965
Max
29
50k
Berger73606561726875627777636567
Max
31
50k
Nsengimana65747274727174536672746676
Max
31
50k
Burmann65767066667370505476656263
Max
32
50k
Stoenchev74676876737372586362636176
Max
32
60k
Fenn71526062736966786967717062
Max
33
60k
Herrera64737363687373526166676461
4.66
27
50k
Pokälä69637076737171635963616375
Max
33
50k
Henttala66746873737272506067637173
Max
32
50k
Louvel73647069707468716766666569
3.13
24
80k
Kittel71516077686459535667686077
Max
35
50k
Selimovic70686960717270626573726866
1.00
22
85k
Vernon71606474707466667369636475
3.26
23
150k
Jarc69636663676868686769726863
1.62
24
50k
Uhiriwe70616670676863606368736470
2.99
22
50k
Sillankorva66616265676766676469656764
1.00
23
10k
Bechkov67666469666665556360706668
1.57
24
50k
Malmberg66585861606862586769605868
1.00
23
10k
Wallinder65595968656664636366646667
1.00
22
10k

They don't lack riders do they? And I thought my squad was big.
The best bet for Genii is to go to every TTT with their depth and hope to score big there. I like some of the supporting riders a lot, but the leaders Penasa, Sicard and Nikiema are just not good enough I think. The latter would be really nice with some training.


Glanbia


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Eastman70827177767576566269736673
Max
31
600k
Kennett75586569737678627978676878
Max
29
100k
McKenna70747664697271616577737064
Max
29
75k
Main68757174727576586369737174
Max
27
130k
Eaton75626977747674676268706677
Max
30
50k
Bennett70526356736778607878605957
Max
33
55k
O'Loughlin73656877697469626364696575
Max
26
50k
Dunne66747469717273706269746969
Max
31
50k
Oram73586477727268576970646477
Max
30
55k
Downey72626676697264526070596376
Max
33
55k
Cheyne73586676737570556567696475
Max
32
50k
Scotson73616774677675646868737275
Max
29
50k
Plowright70585958667163637372586258
3.07
23
50k
Healy66687169716866516065706264
3.05
23
50k
Broxham68676869676766606767676569
2.15
23
50k
Ryan65696762737270596265566464
1.00
22
65k
Curley70606767696767676767727168
2.57
23
50k
Juneau66666669656967626766706768
2.54
23
50k
Wade67606563686966586767697063
1.00
22
50k
McCambridge63666757666967606561656962
1.00
22
50k
Peden68606170686468606163676871
3.00
24
50k
Dinham63676463666867596164616660
1.45
23
10k
Jones63606158676762616869616258
1.44
23
20k

I can't quite figure out where all the budget went for this team. Eastman is awesome and he has a good TTT to back him up, but he can't do it alone. Given Glanbia's traditional TT strength they'd need a puncheur to pair the TTT with as well. Kennett is a nice 2nd/3rd tier sprinter, but that's where we finish.
Edited by redordead on 19-09-2023 14:07

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
redordead
Teams Overview 9-16


Before the actual prediction I'll just take a quick glance over all the teams. The next 8 teams are featured today.


Indosat Ooredoo


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Yates71807671798076566776717171
Max
31
550k
Dunbar69777680747778586068627177
Max
27
500k
Abdul Halil70606060716877628179606866
Max
28
130k
Nur Hasan74606459747478607978736661
Max
25
120k
Rohendi70757570737574556273717071
Max
27
95k
Abdurrahman68777272747474556068746472
Max
26
95k
Bilbao70667864767069507074666560
Max
33
90k
Kolar65777561707171505466726061
Max
31
70k
Arifin66767466677173525872826366
Max
28
70k
Gani75616765767373687677606668
Max
31
60k
Salinas68767270727268555870636570
Max
33
60k
Venturini75636865747479727577637369
Max
30
100k
Setiawa68707574767271576270766674
Max
27
50k
Arif Prayogo73636876737570596464746478
Max
31
50k
Cahyadi70707566707170586869667066
Max
30
50k
Wolf70606377717270555662585975
Max
31
55k
Kochetkov72646076726969527178746058
Max
32
50k
Ahmad68727071697273546270767371
3.33
23
200k
Wibisono69716972707271555968736572
3.45
24
50k
Firdaus68595869686469606568597169
1.00
22
50k

Indosat had it tough for the last two seasons, but they persevered and now you can see the results. Dunbar is an even bigger monster now and Adam Yates will certainly mix it up with the very best climbers. There is decent depth behind those two and I like the way the team is put together. I expect Indosat to make a big leap in the standings.


Jura GIANTS


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Theuns72677465767374807776646770
Max
32
380k
Schmid72747768717772697077767466
4.05
24
210k
Stüssi71797375777378556366656969
Max
30
190k
Errazkin71747870767576646373696770
Max
27
160k
Bol76647067757781687977686769
Max
28
145k
Masnada71777673767573606373697170
Max
30
150k
Bissegger74686978737772607273647177
Max
25
105k
Page75576660727275667879625559
Max
30
80k
Brunel75677178727873666165696678
Max
25
100k
Darbellay69777175737577646764706776
Max
26
100k
Kung73707377747273726371737878
Max
30
250k
Stocker75606569717376597677656571
Max
31
50k
Rekita72586379707373626970637378
Max
29
100k
Tediashvili73666965747672746971706665
4.29
24
50k
Szarka75626761727275607676646670
4.92
25
50k
Marchewka65646077737574505264626577
Max
30
60k
Kosic71576560726865765862776660
Max
33
60k
Stehli67666962706968626969676966
2.00
23
50k
Bakke Christophersen66666863687265646668706467
1.00
22
85k
Janssen71636572687170555966646572
3.20
23
50k
Page66656661686862616972686966
1.00
22
100k
Davies64686669676868556168636569
1.60
28
50k
Raugala69656568666863545864647169
1.00
22
50k

TT paradise right here. It didn't take long for Jura to rebuild their squad following their relegation 2 years ago. We saw them dominate CT and they clearly had a plan on how to approach things this time. They don't have a top stage racer, but they don't need one. Theuns should be very good and there is plenty of depth. Should be a good season.


Kraftwerk Man Machine


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Zabel74606955747079658179665255
Max
30
280k
Ranaweera67807376757574525865576973
Max
28
205k
Haller72616556727176588079666471
Max
32
160k
Roson67787661677077535474736658
Max
30
150k
Boily66757769717167556773687860
Max
33
110k
Ludvigsson68767276757273566271657275
Max
32
130k
De Buyst73617068737575757676707068
Max
30
100k
Rumac71727564727068557476666966
Max
29
90k
Kanerva69647970756970556476756970
Max
28
85k
Destribois69767568686974526175777867
Max
32
70k
Cherkasov80707166727466617075656768
Max
27
110k
Helme69757469717274626076736769
Max
27
65k
Moazemi66727768707073616471646266
Max
33
70k
Zhupa74556664777366767367665864
Max
33
60k
Zubov68636366706969796169676866
Max
32
50k
Tesfom75626577707468536367726476
Max
29
150k
Dieteren67707758757068516366807358
Max
30
50k
Nerz67776970706769536163625770
Max
34
90k
Ho68737373687371616571656671
Max
31
50k
Mathis70626775677463626871656073
4.58
29
50k
Colombo70646767717063706971707167
3.00
26
50k
Theorpanous68686867666970666772706866
1.00
21
50k
Juntunen67627061656964616870676160
2.09
24
50k
Sommer70606365686866686669706566
2.00
23
75k
Uhlig65576162636872685973667160
1.00
22
150k

Another depth focused team. Krafwerk have added some new decent riders that will do well for them, but they have lost Arndt who was arguably their best rider. With a few more riders declining I see Kraftwerk taking a step back, but not by much.


Lampre - Pinarello


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Turgis73677966767870657077836768
Max
29
340k
Meurisse73747767747474687178726868
Max
31
240k
Monsalve66797470767774546370676370
Max
34
175k
Daniel73566956767674807672697464
Max
32
350k
Coutinho72636552757477557980556452
Max
31
165k
Elissonde66787363767779665566617263
Max
32
130k
Rowe77546564746877747878747073
Max
33
180k
Van Keirsbulck72657151757363787068715851
Max
32
99k
Dzamastagic78667065767276667678786665
Max
32
140k
Potocki68777270747175546264666970
Max
30
75k
Riesebeek74707367737569736972767171
Max
31
70k
De Vos68757566737374596269727368
Max
30
50k
Kumara74626754747065757167736854
Max
28
50k
Thwaites72586460726874757774596960
Max
33
50k
Baroncini72647171717570636670726969
3.32
23
60k
Antonelli68717063677069566572717564
3.21
24
50k
Kooij70636567736865657173646670
1.00
22
250k
Milan73586272697765637171666374
3.31
23
50k
Medvedev72606369757472676866766569
3.80
28
50k
Camrda68666764697068546671706866
1.00
22
50k
Penhoët67626465697158666967666467
1.00
22
16k
Sandri70666565696666636567707066
1.00
22
10k

Turgis should be much better suited to life in PCT. The puncheur field is pretty open outside of Areruya and some of races that are maybe suited to Demare. Meurisse always finds a way to score and Daniel should still be pretty high on the list of cobblers. Lampre were a bit better than I thought they were going to be last year and I think they're in for a similar good season again.


Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Oomen71817574787778566569726877
Max
28
520k
Novak68807766747677616676737564
Max
28
400k
Bonifazio79506655687571568080587270
Max
30
310k
Gamper77626676777769796371727276
Max
26
200k
De Plus72777964747371576172686665
Max
28
170k
Bagioli70717764767272606976766665
Max
28
110k
Van Gils69767461707473606874706961
4.82
24
90k
Sajnok74616578707671637372627079
Max
26
80k
Mareczko74536157717379507877616675
Max
29
70k
Siddikov75636577767572706566787277
Max
26
50k
Fedeli67737562727066576472686564
Max
27
50k
Verwilst76656766707266736566756466
Max
26
50k
Potocki70697075737573526568707275
4.99
24
50k
Covi66737462707167606466656663
4.76
25
50k
Biermans77556164717465716667776966
Max
28
50k
Weemaes73606275747067557372676475
4.28
25
50k
Van Aert75636670727372686468697579
Max
29
50k
Vandenabeele66696759626968606366646859
1.60
23
15k
Calzoni62686959606668626064556266
1.00
22
70k
Piccolo64666558686568606472696261
1.00
22
55k
Benedetti61666757626662585865646257
1.00
23
10k

I'm not sure if Lierse's team is better than last year, but I feel like they'll have a better season. I always liked Senni and he's gone, but I guess his impact was getting less and less with Oomen and Novak. I like the Gamper training of course although with some of the cobblers entering the division it might be more about keeping status quo than improving on last year.


Los Pollos Hermanos


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Higuita69787965767879606675736462
Max
26
500k
Zmorka74616682747572616270676082
Max
30
400k
Manninen74656669717577588180707176
Max
31
400k
Aular68817270767577526369677170
Max
27
300k
Zepuntke72566965797264827265666865
Max
30
150k
Sütterlin71596580737767565960767380
Max
31
105k
Osorio69777272737274555668626468
Max
25
80k
Ulloa72667063737271776868686464
Max
27
75k
Lopez Nolasco65777071717073525970746869
4.82
26
60k
Ruiz79686864737168667375677166
Max
25
50k
Sterbini68566678747367635767716578
Max
31
50k
Nareklishvili70616673717270756471686274
4.99
27
50k
Beltran68747464697169536267686962
4.99
24
50k
Quispe80525261626064536673845561
4.50
29
55k
Pira62766862646770606067666161
3.25
24
50k
Galvan Ramirez71726971697170506466696972
3.30
23
50k
Hollmann70626571697063716163616569
3.07
24
50k
Abolaji71626072687169656060666574
3.13
25
50k
Aguilar Mendez71545573686968516469636573
3.03
23
50k
Moutsios69596169686862656572706669
1.00
22
50k

I have only one question about this Los Pollos team, but I'll leave that for the end.
Zmorka is the best TTer in the division and Manninen is proven over and over. Aular is really good, I'm not sure he can match last season's output, but he won't be far off. Zepuntke is... well he's okay. There is also depth that wasn't there in prior years. The question for me is Higuita. Despite the training he's still more of a climber than puncheur to me and he doesn't have quite the main stats of Areruya or Beltran in past seasons. I think Los Pollos will fight at the very top of the division and Higuita's performances will be the deciding factor if they can win it all.


McCormick Pro Cycling


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
McNulty72807477757777616468716775
Max
25
325k
Boswell70718067777371566576726869
Max
32
235k
Bagioli71717769767269607176756771
4.56
24
450k
Narvaez70727769717174627374736767
Max
26
105k
Walscheid73556362717473617979616775
Max
30
105k
Kuss68787164747671505569667265
Max
29
115k
Warbasse69777473747270575964716773
Max
33
115k
Seigle68727764737369606372706967
Max
29
80k
Affini73666777767972646470736878
Max
27
70k
Daniel75677277757472555668736976
Max
29
70k
Naud76627364727371746467787564
Max
32
50k
Revard69767070697474615870676369
Max
26
55k
Hoehn67757270717475646461786870
Max
26
55k
Boivin72566860716774577777716564
Max
34
50k
Mohammad72707474697267616772646572
Max
27
50k
Matte67757071727170516051706171
Max
30
50k
Matsuda74657075697465607171606477
4.41
24
150k
Quinn69727168707471606668636371
3.16
23
65k
Mostov75606175737565586065686075
Max
27
50k
Simmons69676860687172676671686960
1.00
22
250k
Nzafashwanayo70656660697168606254696860
2.51
23
10k
Garrison68646465656764555967726565
1.00
22
10k

It must be nice to achieve promotion and have a bonafide leader coming into the team. McNulty should be great with his stat combo and all the U25 points coming his way. McCormick also has good stage racing and TTT support. I don't think they'll have any problems in the first PCT season. What could propel them higher in the table is how they juggle three talented puncheurs in Boswell, Bagioli and Narvaez.


Sauber Petronas Racing


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Hirschi71757766777775666673807666
4.77
25
150k
Frankiny69787664727577536175716667
Max
29
150k
Azman69767763697273506575766964
Max
29
120k
Einhorn74606162717174638078606364
Max
26
240k
David73617464757368776972676964
Max
33
170k
Pomoshnikov70787363777572516365606663
Max
33
120k
Natarov65787270667078606567795769
Max
27
100k
Misbah68777075767374626268707074
Max
26
80k
Van Garderen69687865726963636673767165
Max
35
200k
Campero65787069757072555671697469
Max
32
70k
Schoonbroodt72637563757367746872617463
Max
32
60k
Marzuki70717464717270747272647163
Max
31
60k
Chen69757262717576566571606462
4.38
27
115k
Liphongyu68757274737274655863686373
Max
32
50k
Hibatullah68777263696671576070646557
Max
26
50k
Eislers74647260716874627675676860
Max
30
50k
Dulanjana67747274757177636261607575
Max
28
55k
Noia76586078707470626169706577
Max
27
50k
Pellaud70657766746871556570716766
Max
31
50k
Ghani71687365716868746361676764
Max
28
50k
Putti69707462747172705967807062
Max
27
50k
Rossi74656969717068716869706573
2.79
23
150k
Chhetri66757060716365546371697760
Max
33
50k
Maccagli72636675707168616368697075
Max
28
50k
Giulietti70656870717071716668627470
3.40
24
50k
Forcellini66697366686368516070575658
Max
33
50k

Another team with a large squad of riders, but lacking that top end quality. Sauber have done this a couple of times now. Whether it was Frankiny, Pomoshnikov, Van Garderen, David they've found a way to get great performances. Most of these riders have declined, so who will pull them out of trouble this time?
Edited by redordead on 22-09-2023 06:39

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
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redordead
Teams Overview 17-24


Before the actual prediction I'll just take a quick glance over all the teams. Time for the final 8 teams now.


Sony - Force India


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Benoot71758163757474766971626662
Max
29
390k
Choi71817475777679635968687174
Max
32
400k
Vesely73606857746876578180617157
Max
31
240k
Carboni70787669737373626669617269
Max
28
130k
Ringheim72686766757173787375666766
Max
32
115k
Kuroeda74536367727375777478636471
Max
28
110k
Kozhatayev74777472717571705269627472
Max
31
150k
Kuroeda72637052767782767673677163
Max
31
90k
Leemreize66767465697372606270746765
4.35
24
80k
Jungels72646878747569546363727078
Max
31
65k
Shirota68757558696873556378735858
Max
29
50k
Ahmad Zamri70757075727475525969715975
Max
31
60k
Tratnik70727661737468616069706461
Max
33
50k
Havik77637065747364727069757064
Max
29
55k
Goh68737569727271616166786468
Max
33
50k
Van Dijke68707370727370677070727171
3.23
23
50k
Kooistra75606559726960697474636364
4.99
26
50k
Ocampo69596476727173545863586676
4.31
24
50k
Van Dijke73616970707370667069657272
3.06
23
60k
Hayter72716570717066616673646971
1.00
22
190k
Alben70586362706159526872626466
1.00
22
50k

Benoot did really well last year, better than I thought. If the training gives him another bump in performance then Sony could easily have enough about them to promote. While the team has decent depth I think their success will still be highly reliant on Bennot, Choi and Vesely.


Spark-BNZ Racing


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Bobridge71678175717166516777646475
Max
34
350k
Madrazo64817273757475515966626573
Max
35
300k
Howard74616666726774618076626366
Max
34
80k
Perera71536458697377647980506174
Max
30
115k
Sakalou66767565637272546072776265
Max
30
70k
Scott72636656727174617878606457
Max
25
70k
Schleck64777353717178535273616161
Max
27
60k
McCormick70667665747170537373675965
Max
29
65k
Yates71657869777471636269736969
Max
27
60k
Erdenebat75606578777874515964696879
Max
26
60k
Bevin68747376686473536474746972
Max
32
80k
Baterdene74586159727083677677596664
Max
28
50k
Mudgway70596460716676657678656565
Max
27
50k
Muhindo74586765747168756864766565
Max
27
54k
Marryatt71616877677467576058676377
Max
27
50k
De Luna66737074657067655566656673
Max
33
55k
Brandt66756872726770615964657071
Max
33
50k
Erdenesuren72596259727063756966625961
Max
31
50k
Ratiy62766670646770505052505170
Max
35
50k
Kopfauf69626765677467527473706881
Max
27
70k
Rodriguez67706767686968556569657064
1.00
22
400k
Klahan68646665676772686368647066
1.00
23
25k
Watts64666566627268606466737264
1.00
22
10k
Quick65586159656658586769586259
1.00
23
10k
Battsengel62605867676471636068686767
1.00
22
50k

I think Madrazo will do fine. He's not perfect and you shouldn't expect too much, but I think he'll be a net positive. Bobridge is the interesting one, on paper he should be good, but BNZ might need him to be great to keep them in PCT. It's not impossible, but clever planning and some luck will be needed.


Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Padun67827766727476536075767065
Max
27
485k
Beltran68788065717070586574777365
Max
33
340k
Aniolkowski76626556767479638079576459
Max
26
220k
Gladysh72707764737273617176746966
Max
28
110k
Vasyliv71777472787275566267647172
Max
30
115k
Lutsyshyn70505464697374557980585770
Max
29
85k
Prevar71707961756866526671626561
Max
33
90k
Andriafenomananiaina65767274747476565271766470
Max
29
75k
Taaramäe68787174697065505366636372
Max
36
100k
Manamalage81515952716456775756646157
Max
31
60k
Golovash72606078726966557376616578
Max
32
50k
Sergis68757658697373585870766658
Max
31
50k
Budyak68747868726773565768637468
Max
28
50k
Tanovitchii72687660757271576271796860
Max
30
55k
Bratashcuk69717758757069526267657958
Max
31
50k
Dzhus65767064747468555875706364
Max
30
50k
Pluchkin67786872686865636064605972
Max
36
75k
Papanov68747271727274546567686675
4.59
24
50k
Varga77616661767369676580837463
Max
30
90k
Orlov69587667746869556370746467
Max
31
50k
Zumer68706856687462566576728057
3.44
26
50k
Parashchak69677257686970585970716657
3.23
23
50k
Horvat73666756717466696770696759
3.40
25
50k
Kachur64616859666972626067636759
1.00
22
50k
Bilyi66686568696765606266687168
1.00
22
50k

It's really down to the top two for this team. There are some really nice riders across the team that should contribute nicely, but in the end if this team wants to get in the promotion fight then Padun and Beltran need to be very good. I am for sure a bit biased for the latter, as I believe/hope he has another great PCT season in him.


Team UBS - Tissot


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Buchmann71768167737474576573677067
Max
31
600k
Spengler74586762747376836270676365
Max
29
229k
Schelling70797471737471535768667170
Max
33
160k
Jacobs76606962777667786767717360
Max
26
117k
Van Asbroeck74527065747177737977736773
Max
33
110k
Müller70678063767170686673756363
Max
27
110k
Bohli74636870797565777468666873
Max
29
88k
Sequera69767371787572555868707371
Max
32
90k
Barbio68747276727368596367767175
Max
30
80k
Schir67777272737274505965696872
Max
30
80k
Badilatti67767565677271556065736265
Max
31
65k
Schäppi72646775747269766668706075
Max
27
150k
Haugard72576079747770565767736579
Max
31
50k
Dillier69506379737665676061736278
Max
33
66k
Fominykh74566777747168546469616376
Max
32
50k
Grand71576462726866766463635966
Max
33
50k
Reichenbach68707664716468546064706464
Max
34
50k
Balmer67727070717266636168717565
3.06
23
65k
Brun67677159716968596370676158
3.06
23
50k
Stöckli64727160696870615967667058
3.58
23
65k
Blum69606772687069636366637171
1.00
22
175k

UBS has some good riders, but I don't love anyone. I'm not a big fan of Buchmann especially when you factor in his wage. Spengler has the top CB stat in PCT, but most of his other stats are underwhelming. He does perhaps have the best support unit on the cobbles so maybe that enables him to do more than I think. Also I never noticed, but UBS has quite a few older riders so there wasn't much of a rebuild going on during these transfers and I don't see them in the promotion fight either.


Trans Looney Tunes


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Min68797666757770636266696966
Max
27
650k
Calmejane74717767737674607276787070
Max
31
175k
Bystrom72687961757267566876787361
Max
31
145k
Waeytens70718065727068676673767565
Max
32
130k
Primozic69767468797779616673726769
Max
25
110k
Korosec71687568747171627578706971
Max
30
110k
Knox70757373757777546367656173
Max
28
90k
Moulingui74537152717153786568647152
Max
28
150k
Lecourt De Billot75586964747365756174816468
Max
30
80k
Munoz64777372676971655770646569
Max
27
85k
Senyenov70627763687365606873727363
Max
30
55k
Katrasnik81616369727669636372817369
Max
28
75k
Kolev75526260737165776267716466
Max
29
50k
Pibernik72657660766868616874726762
Max
30
55k
Peng75596472747373756973636772
Max
30
55k
Jang66757561706868536572725561
Max
33
50k
Centrone74627159726770765358747562
Max
28
50k
Piaskowy69727272737074525468676272
Max
32
95k
Sobrero69697173677272586469666471
4.69
26
50k
Doull72596573717068717373636575
Max
30
50k
Stimulak72586576697067567172646065
Max
33
50k
Tulett70646570686964576368717070
1.00
22
75k
Murn69666567717268586066646868
Max
22
50k

I don't like that Vanbilsen was replaced with Moulingui. Min is a nice addition, but the field of climbers who can't TT hasn't gotten any easier. No sprinters, but didn't have any last year IIRC. Katrasnik should help in the flat classics. The overall depth has improved, but it will still be a tough battle to stay in the division. How the puncheurs do will again be key.


Tryg - Gobik


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Demare73678061757280638281706361
Max
32
710k
Summerhill76647157736964816870797157
Max
34
320k
Schlegel69797765717476556475736664
Max
28
215k
Kron73707966757571646673757165
Max
25
150k
Rodenberg74606464707773597979636474
Max
25
135k
Hoelgaard72747765727272626874736965
Max
30
120k
Honore71697668747372676573717068
Max
26
70k
Seibeb71757666706971596173805966
Max
31
83k
Norsgaard73626579697565625766575977
Max
26
80k
Kump70627359706771697774666966
Max
35
50k
Pedrero67767365736871537071767065
Max
32
50k
Frison71576777737167546565636777
Max
31
55k
Sleen69717173697273606369716471
4.18
26
50k
Iversen74636573697169656264696473
4.02
26
50k
Kaloniatis70686769727071656669736872
3.39
24
50k
Nyoni69546175667167527068716475
4.02
28
50k
Blume Levy68606061686466706869686462
1.00
22
200k
Enggaard69666567717268586066646868
1.00
22
10k
Currie69606170676965536370637268
1.00
22
60k
Van De Paar68636167657072606569656767
1.00
23
10k
Sander Hansen68596266697063636564666164
1.63
23
10k
Wulff Frederiksen67586058646760596766606058
1.63
23
10k

This team kind of reminds me of the PCT team Tryg had a couple seasons ago, replace the Wellens-Skujins duo with Demare-Summerhill. There is a bit more depth around this time and you can easily argue Demare is better than the previous leaders. I don't think Tryg is completely safe, but they look better equipped this time.


Xero Racing


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Areruya72818165767879536876756065
Max
27
790k
Pidcock76747571747772737380728271
4.86
24
330k
Bennett67817665757479586573556365
Max
32
410k
Fouche66787569727377626175756569
Max
25
140k
Houle77657468757077647877696868
Max
33
170k
Kipkemboi67757757687373556376736859
Max
25
105k
Van Niekerk76616778737572646167726477
Max
28
50k
Tesfaye Heyi75707367747665556873786672
Max
30
50k
Novardianto76616868707874697379746875
Max
29
50k
Van Zyl74717473747472716266736073
Max
32
50k
Vermeersch74626770717365737476677572
3.74
24
95k
Hamza75606760727274627575656563
4.33
26
50k
Boileau66727264666971626672646663
3.08
24
50k
Strong67717058657470586773636658
3.40
23
50k
Duyvesteyn67677264656966606372716664
3.94
25
50k
Van Wilder66727071667067606768646670
3.33
23
75k
Schomber73545874667668506969656481
Max
29
50k
Lazkano64667259666966606471746159
3.07
24
50k
Engelhardt63667257686767596167676558
3.06
23
10k
Pinzon65686755697267596467666455
1.00
22
10k
Ramirez61676662656565606062636660
1.59
24
50k

Perhaps the most top heavy team in PCT. It should be a great battle between Areruya, Demare and maybe Dunbar for the individual crown. For Xero to make the jump from a top 10 team to a top 5 team, other riders will need to step up. Pidcock likely takes center stage here as someone that needs to justify his wage. If he can't we can see another year of jandal selling riders to stay under the salary cap.


Zwift Pro Cycling


FLMOHITTSTRSRCCOSPACFTDHPR
XP
Age
Wage
Powless72787278767476596571646578
Max
27
170k
Ackermann72657761757179617780666368
Max
29
170k
Burke69777669757480556071777169
Max
28
165k
Fraile68757178737570575965786478
Max
33
175k
Jorgenson72777474777670686570656973
4.66
24
130k
Lopez66787559717275556078746463
Max
26
120k
Welten76646958727182737975566759
Max
26
145k
Tejada68777371727672575970666471
Max
26
105k
Girmay74647061727368757475637165
3.13
23
600k
Silva75626862697077727778566062
Max
29
60k
Rhim66777262687273636269696464
Max
28
50k
Carr68707757747171555972655958
Max
25
50k
Walls72616161717072617876606471
4.88
25
55k
Stroll66726972717273556268707572
Max
25
50k
Ryuki71687063727069606671736564
3.00
24
50k
Gloag70696859707168556569606960
1.00
22
170k
Jussaume65557170706863636065606670
1.00
22
100k
Canal68676761716764626667727362
1.00
22
50k
Pickrell69656665657267676367656864
1.00
22
50k
Flynn67606757696765606669636260
1.41
23
10k

Can a team that is paying an unmaxed rider 600k avoid relegation?
Normally I'd say no. I think Zwift has a chance as I like a lot of their main riders, although I'm not sure why Powless got MO instead of TT training. And if he's going to ToA that doesn't sound good as he should be on more of a Dunbar type schedule. It's going to be tricky if Mre has to take Girmay, Powless and Jorgenson down to CT.
Edited by redordead on 22-09-2023 13:59

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
redordead
2023 PCT prediction


Hopefully my predictions aren't getting even worse. Although at least this time my team isn't part of the predictions, so that's one team I won't misplace by 10 spots.

The 'method' for the ranking below stays the same. It's mostly subjective, reflecting my own taste with regards to team building and the riders I like. I know many HQs have posted their leader's schedules. I pretty much just looked at the teams for my evaluation, but a few planning decisions might have been in the back of my mind.

The coefficient is a relative average score for each team and gives an idea which teams are very evenly matched.

Rank
Team
Coeff.
1
Los Pollos Hermanos
1,29
2
Fastned
1,18
3
Assa Abloy
1,18
4
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
1,18
5
Xero Racing
1,13
6
Sony - Force India
1,11
7
Jura GIANTS
1,11
8
Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska
1,09
9
Lampre - Pinarello
1,07
10
Indosat Ooredoo
1,05
11
Kraftwerk Man Machine
1,02
12
Team UBS - Tissot
1,02
13
Tryg - Gobik
1,02
14
DuckDuckGo - Everesting
1,00
15
Bralirwa - Stevens
1,00
16
McCormick Pro Cycling
0,98
17
DK Zalgiris
0,96
18
Colombini Cycling
0,85
19
Trans Looney Tunes
0,85
20
Sauber Petronas Racing
0,85
21
Zwift Pro Cycling
0,83
22
Spark-BNZ Racing
0,78
23
Genii Hyundai N Cycling
0,74
24
Glanbia
0,70


A few quick thoughts:

I'm giving Los Pollos the moniker of title favourites, even more so than Bralirwa last year and we saw how wrong I was there. They are a deeper team though. They're also the only team I really see as a sure thing for promotion. No other team really stands out for me. So maybe we're in for a very fun promotion battle.

The bottom of the table should also be plenty competitive. Glanbia is the team I really don't see having a chance of staying up. On the other end I see anyone from 18-23 filling the other four spots and I won't be surprised if one or two other teams get dragged into the relegation fight.

I'd also just like to point out that I think some teams have more of a boom or bust potential for their ranking. I ranked them all according to the positive end of that spectrum, although I do realise it's basically impossible for everyone to reach that high end of projection.

That concludes my quick and simple PCT preview.
Thanks for the comments.
Edited by redordead on 25-09-2023 10:15

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
redordead
I updated the 2nd post with overviews of the first 8 teams.

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
Fabianski
I'm looking forward to the overall prediction to see how your verbal assessments translate to numbers Smile For the first 8 teams, it seems to me as if we had pretty similar feelings, with you maybe valuing Zalgiris and the Ducks a bit higher.

Thanks for doing this, it's always great to read predictions Smile
Some of them being completely off is just normal, otherwise we wouldn't need to race at all Pfft And factoring a manager's planning skills in is quite impossible (although the knowledge about some ToA leaders surely had an impact on my PCT prediction).

Looking forward to the next block - and I hope I wont regret reading it afterwards Pfft
 
MacC

I can't quite figure out where all the budget went for this team. Eastman is awesome and he has a good TTT to back him up, but he can't do it alone. Given Glanbia's traditional TT strength they'd need a puncheur to pair the TTT with as well. Kennett is a nice 2nd/3rd tier sprinter, but that's where we finish.



Fair points! Interesting fact- I had a load of salary cap left at the end!

Thanks for the effort
 
redordead
Updated the 3rd post with overviews of the middle 8 teams.

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pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/mgmanager21.png


"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
Fabianski
redordead wrote:
Jura GIANTS
they clearly had a plan on how to approach things this time.

You're too kind :lol:
Indeed, we had a plan - but didn't stick to it. Plan A was getting a top stage racer (but you think we don't need one). Plan B was getting a top TTer, which would've helped for the goals. But getting a top cobbler was not even remotely a plan Pfft
For most other riders you're right; we planned to get Küng, we planned to get two sprinters, and we planned to get some Swiss talents (although we missed out on the most interesting one). And I guess there's no-one whose plans pan out 100%.
Now I'm just waiting to see what exactly you mean by "should be a good season", in terms of final rank Wink

I guess apart from Lampre and maybe Lierse our assessments are pretty similar once again, with Indosat probably being in promotion contention, Sauber fighting to stay up, LPH battling for the title, McCormick easily staying up and Kraftwerk maybe a tad weaker. Looking forward to parts 3 and 4 of the preview Smile
 
whitejersey
Think that you nailed the feeling I have for my team this season, another holdover season before a rebuild, hoping for a bit of a better result but would be very happy with a tenth again!
 
redordead
That's it for the teams overview.

I'll have the prediction up next week.

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
redordead
Predictions up now.

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
Ollfardh
Thanks for the preview! I think the biggest improvement my team has is that I didn't lose any leaders, but actually made them stronger. I gave up a few really good riders for that, but guys like Van Gils and Siddikov developping should counter that. It feels like the opposition lost more due to salary caps and age declines.

Losing Senni was sad, but he struggled with leadership and he's too expensive for a PCT domestique. I have confidence in Oomen, Novak and Gamper, so with the Senni question mark gone, it's only Bonifazio and De Plus I'm worried about. Let's hope the new PCM likes them.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Bushwackers
Thanks for the read! Very well thought out. I think most predictions have us finishing middle of the pack, which I would also expect. Though I think everyone sleeps on Spengler a bit Shock
 
Nemolito
Hope Manninen can prove you right and perform as stellar as in his previous two Los Pollos seasons. Still surprised to see you put me in first (and with that much of a coefficient ahead of the others). I hope I can show last year's Bralirwa team how it's done Pfft As mentioned earlier, I myself doubt highly that we'll win the title, but promotion is the goal. Would be interesting to see Trans escape relegation for the second year in a row, like you predict. Thanks for the work you put into this, always fun and interesting to see/read about the other teams in this way.
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Jakstar22
I hope we are able to stay in the PCT but like you all say our CT team is basically ready to go. It’ll be an interesting season but hopefully the old dogs can push us through for a second season in the PCT
 
fjhoekie
8th seems kind of spot on I guess, it would be just about our thing to do, unremarkable yet fairly strong Smile

Padun and Beltran will hopefully carry indeed, but I do expect solid points from Aniolkowski as well, and perhaps some of the mentioned 'sevarl nice riders' like perhaps Gladysh, Varga and why not even Taaramae? Smile
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
 
cunego59
15th is the worst I've seen us place in a prediction so far I think, but I can definetely see it. Still, if we finish .15 coefficient points above the relegation zone, I'll be happy Pfft Thanks for all the effort you put into this, really good stuff!
 
AbhishekLFC
Like I already said in the Lazy thread, I do see us in the 5th-8th region this season and this prediction is also in line with that. Hopefully things work out like this.

Thanks for the detailed predictions red Smile
 
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