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2023 CT Community Survey & Ranking
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Posted on 21-12-2024 11:37
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Ezeefreak
So for the upcomming season i made such a thing for the Continental Teams (for now). If people like it I will also make one for PCT and PT later.

So what is this?
Just a little survey to see what people think and predict for the upcomming season in the Continental Dvision.

How to participate?
Just click on the Link below, answer the questions in the form and thats it.

How does it work
Just rank the best teams from 1st to 5th in the different sections. Also rank all teams from first to last overall (not necessary to do all if you dont know for this question)

What else?
Your username is just required to see who already sent it and to make somehow sure people just dont spam, it wont be published (but I may secretely judge you for your answers :lol: ). Please be a good human and only just answer once and for yourself!

Till when can I take the survey?
I plan to collect and publish the results next week. So please do so till the end of 17th of september.



Feel free to comment or discuss here also!
Edited by Ezeefreak on 12-09-2023 12:09
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seancoll
I can't say I enjoyed this exercise as it simply told me how steep of a hill our team needs to climb in most categories. Hopefully other teams view us a bit stronger than I do.

Looking forward to the results and seeing even more CT teams post goals and leaders!
MG Manager - SEE Turtles
 
Ezeefreak
Push!

Would be nice if we get a few more participations. At the moment its not a lot to really evaluate it. SO dont be lazy and spend these 5 mins to click some boxes Grin
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redordead
I did it, but I found the process way too tedious.

I had no interest in the terrain ranking, but I had to do it anyway because it was mandatory. Also I probably made some mistakes having to scroll up and down all the time and try to figure out which abbreviation was which team and just misclicking boxes.

Not very user friendly and definitely not for the lazy.

Would've been much easier to just post a list here on the forum or through PM.

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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
 
Blasing
Appreciate the effort, but have to agree with redordead.
Manager of JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
 
Ezeefreak
Well without feedback nothing can be changed Wink

Yeah its a bit of a hassle and for next time i can try to make it more comfortable but the good thing about a survey is that it is a bit less work for the one person who does it then just collecting it all and organizing with PM.

Anyway, i heard you and next time i will make it more lazy-ass friendly Pfft
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TheManxMissile
You've basically done it backwards from what i'd have done.

So instead of listing the all the teams, i'd have just listed the terrain and 1-5, so then people only need to think "hmm who's #1" and type that team name in - vs scrolling back and forth through them all. Same for the ranking, list positions and let users add in the team name.
Would just streamline everything on the user side, but admittedly make it a little trickier for you to then tidy & present the data in the end.
Edited by TheManxMissile on 14-09-2023 11:04
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
I added to the survey. But full predictions below. I have two versions, v2 is the one I like better so used that in the survey. The main difference is it downgrades punchers and upgrades cobblers versus v1.

Both predictions are at a rider level with no consideration given to team make up. Since CT points didn't matter to me much this year I didn't update the algorithm for 2022 data and of course moving to PCM22 is another wild card.

The point total's aren't meant to be specific but give an order of magnitude, so Tafjord is a strong prediction for 1st but JEWA and Gjensidige are basically interchangeable for 3rd and 4th (under v2).

Teamv2 Ptsv2 Rankv1 Ptsv1 Rank
Tafjord Kraft2048120571
Strava1522215355
JEWA TIROL1470314986
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team1463416203
Team Würth MODYF14465134410
Podium Ambition1378614098
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh1348719232
Ekoi - Le Creuset1207815534
Stela-Vita1198914717
Caja Rural Cycling Team115810121812
Crabbe-CC Chevigny11411113589
Hilcona Racing Team107612125411
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren98713120213
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo98014112914
Mercatone Uno - Weba89515109315
Manada Coyote82816101416
SEE Turtles8101798217
Saeco8071896018
Adidas - Eurocash7891992019
Babymetal Cycling7552086620

Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
Ezeefreak
Thanks to everyone who participated. Like many stated, this wasnt the easiest way to do and I will do it different next time i will do something like that!

I started the evaluation of the data and will start with presenting you the predicition for the overall ranking you decided on:

TeamAverageVariance
1Tafjord Kraft2,110,99
2Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team2,182,04
3Podium Ambition4,201,54
4Crabbe - CC Chevigny5,733,74
5Team Würth MODYF5,732,70
6Strava6,903,24
7JEWA TIROL Cycling Team8,105,47
8Ekoi - Le Creuset9,404,15
9Stela - Vita9,503,56
10Manada Coyote10,205,02
11Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren10,892,33
12Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh11,096,16
13Caja Rural Cycling Team11,443,50
14Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo12,003,83
15SEE Turtles12,673,09
16Mercatone Uno - Weba13,635,22
17Hilcona Racing Team13,675,21
18Saeco14,114,38
19Adidas - Eurocash16,782,53
20Babymetal Cycling18,442,06


Its the average position you preict the teams on obviously. Variance is the standard deviation from the reults. If you take both into consideration then Tatfjord Kraft is the favorite going into the season. Closely followed by Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team. After these 2 there is a small gap to Podium Ambition and then there is a group of 3 (Crabbe - CC Chevigny, Team Würth MODYF and Strava)who should compete for promotion. But even then next follow closely.
At the bottom it seems pretty clear with Babymetal Cycling and Adidas - Eurocash which are predicted to have the hardest seasons. The other places are really close and seem to have a hard battle.
Lets look at the variance to see where the preidctions spread the most. Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh, JEWA TIROL Cycling Team, Mercatone Uno - Weba & Hilcona Racing Team are the most unpredictable and it makes sense that these are all new teams. Tafjord Kraft there is the least deviance so it should be an easy year for them if we look at our predictions.

-----------------


Next will be the analysis for the individual sections. There Teams will get points if they show up in the Top 5, like seen in the following table:
PlacePoints
1st8
2nd5
3rd3
4th2
5th1


Theese will be posted starting later today.
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Caspi
Cool to see all the data Smile

I think v2 of your (Ulrich Ulriksen) predictions looks more realistic than v1 as well.

Looking forward to see where Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh shows up in the individual sections.
 
Laurens147
Indeed, really nice to see all these predictions for CT Smile
I can’t wait for the season to start!

From my POV I don’t see us a real promotion candidate, but you never know. The mountain/hill/sprint department is so stacked it’s hard to predict how it will turn out.
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
 
Ezeefreak
STAGE RACE RANKING


Lets start with how people ranked the stage racing sections of each team. Who will be the best in this department? Scoring is like I explained at the Overall section.

TeamScore
1Crabbe - CC Chevigny45
2Team Würth MODYF41
3Caja Rural Cycling Team38
4Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team37
5JEWA TIROL Cycling Team32
6Tafjord Kraft18
7Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren16
8Ekoi - Le Creuset16
9Strava8
10Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo4
11Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh4
12Podium Ambition2
13Saeco2
14Stela - Vita2
15Babymetal Cycling1
16Adidas - Eurocash0
17Hilcona Racing Team0
18Mercatone Uno - Weba0
19SEE Turtles0
20Manada Coyote0


I would say it's pretty open here, not a huge advantage for any team but we have a "winner" here with Crabbe - CC Chevigny. Most likely because Chiarello is there and he obviously is a huge favorite for every race he will attend.

Second goes here the incredible awesome Team Würth MODYF (I am not biased or so). Not with the top rider like Chiarello but with Elosegui and Schelling two good riders and quite some support in the mountains and at TT's.

Third we have Caja Rural Cycling Team. Lead by Ablenado and Munoz they also have a bunch of helpers and sure will do great.

On the other side we have quite a few teams who didnt get to be in the top 5 of anyone. 5 Teams couldnt score a single point in this section. Hopefully they will have "better luck" in the next ones!

Next one will be the puncheurs!
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pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/jerseydesigner-ezee.png
 
Ezeefreak
PUNCHEUR RANKING


Now we will see what people think about the puncheur sections of each team.

TeamScore
1Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team85
2Ekoi - Le Creuset50
3Manada Coyote49
4Crabbe - CC Chevigny18
5Tafjord Kraft13
6Adidas - Eurocash12
7Podium Ambition11
8Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh10
9Caja Rural Cycling Team8
10Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren3
11Strava3
12JEWA TIROL Cycling Team2
13Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo1
14Hilcona Racing Team1
15Babymetal Cycling0
16Mercatone Uno - Weba0
17Saeco0
18SEE Turtles0
19Stela - Vita0
20Team Würth MODYF0


Here we have a more clear result. First is here Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team! With Eiking leading this section and Skjerping as Backup this was to be expected. Especially Eiking will definitely be able to dominate CT if he can reach his full potential in the races.

Second and Third are close together but also a lot ahead of the rest of the competition. Ekoi - Le Creuset with Teuns & Co. has a really strong and also deep lineup when it comes to the hills. With this deep roster they will have a strong contender in each hilly race they attend.
The puncheur section of Manada Coyote is lead by another scandinavian hills specialist: Jensen. A really strong and also versatile rider with good chances in many terrains. Mudarra another strong rider at this team and behind these 2 other follows to support them.

This time 6 teams couldn't score. Team Würth MODYF who went second before got 0 Points here.

Next one will be the cobbles!
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Ezeefreak
COBBLES RANKING


Just Cobbles. We expect here not so much diversity if we look at the teams. So lets see what you thought.

TeamScore
1Strava101
2Tafjord Kraft34
3Stela - Vita32
4Saeco28
5Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo26
6Podium Ambition16
7Crabbe - CC Chevigny15
8Caja Rural Cycling Team5
9Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren3
10Babymetal Cycling2
11Mercatone Uno - Weba2
12Hilcona Racing Team1
13JEWA TIROL Cycling Team1
14Adidas - Eurocash0
15Ekoi - Le Creuset0
16Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team0
17SEE Turtles0
18Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh0
19Team Würth MODYF0
20Manada Coyote0


Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a unchallenged winner in this category! Strava , with Gaday and Owen both leaders are really strong on cobbles. With some fairly decent ammount of support they should be able to bring a lot of points to the team.

With quite some distance 4 teams follow Strava in this category. We will focus here on the 2 new Teams Stela - Vita and Saeco.
Stela - Vita comes with Lampaert and Merlier as their main guys for the cobbled roads. Lampaert had a nice year last year with Colombini lets see what he can bring to his new team.
Saeco relies almost completely on one rider for this but this rider is Trentin! He got a bit older but still in great shape for the CT and should do really well at cobbled races.

As to be expected for this years CT there were quite a lot Teams who couldnt score and even some who scored probably doesnt have the most convincing cobbles section.

Next one will be the sprint section!
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Ezeefreak
SPRINT RANKING


Now its about the fast men at the last kilometres, The sprinters.

TeamScore
1Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo76
2Mercatone Uno - Weba50
3JEWA TIROL Cycling Team48
4Team Würth MODYF19
5Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh17
6Adidas - Eurocash11
7Crabbe - CC Chevigny9
8Hilcona Racing Team8
9Stela - Vita8
10Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team7
11Babymetal Cycling4
12Tafjord Kraft4
13Ekoi - Le Creuset3
14Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren2
15Caja Rural Cycling Team0
16Podium Ambition0
17Saeco0
18SEE Turtles0
19Strava0
20Manada Coyote0


We got a more clear result here than we did expect. And with that the winner of this category is Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo. how could they snatch the victory here? Nur Aiman Zariff, a great sprinter from Malaysia is leading this team when it comes to sprints. Still a young rider and he will be support by veterans Scully and Naesen.

Then we look at the second place here. Mercatone Uno - Weba, they really have a strong and deep lineup for sprint finishes. The reason they are 2nd isnt any surprise, it's called Saber. The winner of last years indiviual standing will ride for them this year. May have become a bit old but still gold! Van der Sande & Co. will support him.

Third is the austrian team JEWA TIROL Cycling Team. They most likely snatched a lot of votes for their leader Degenkolb. Not the most explosive one anymore but still with a high speed at the end. Boudat is another weapon for them when it comes to sprinting.

I would say the sprinting competition in CT is pretty deep so its a bit surprising the points arent spread more.

Next one will be the TT-Guys!
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Ezeefreak
TIMETRIAL RANKING


Just a man against the clock, sometimes with his team mates but you know what i mean. The TT-Guys!

TeamScore
1Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team97
2Podium Ambition54
3Tafjord Kraft54
4Team Würth MODYF29
5SEE Turtles22
6Crabbe - CC Chevigny5
7Manada Coyote3
8Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren1
9Hilcona Racing Team1
10Adidas - Eurocash0
11Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo0
12Babymetal Cycling0
13Caja Rural Cycling Team0
14Ekoi - Le Creuset0
15JEWA TIROL Cycling Team0
16Mercatone Uno - Weba0
17Saeco0
18Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh0
19Stela - Vita0
20Strava0


We a another clear result and not really many teams who could score at all.

Again Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team takes the victory in this category. Van Moer and Knotten are the guys they will rely on. In addition to them they also have some more with decent skills in TT and Prologues to support them in Team-TT's.

Second comes Podium Ambition with clear podium ambitions in Timetrials. They present a really deep TT section at there roster, lead by Vanderpool, Hennis, Campbell and Canty. Will be thrilling to watch at TTT's.

Tafjord Kraft shares the number of points with Podium Ambition and comes also 2nd. Not as deep as them in sheer numbers but with Belevics and Vangstad 2 really great leaders for Timetrials. Maybe these 2 can carry the rest in TTT's.

Only 9 teams got points here and only 5 got more than 5 points. Seems like a pretty clear section for the upcomming season.

Next one will be the last individual ranking, the roleurs!
i.imgur.com/wu8Njxa.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/jerseydesigner-ezee.png
 
Ezeefreak
ROLEUR RANKING


In my opinion a really underrated category of riders. The roleurs will try everything to win with willpower and there skills on flat roads!

TeamScore
1Babymetal Cycling67
2Stela - Vita52
3Tafjord Kraft46
4Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team32
5Strava28
6Crabbe - CC Chevigny25
7Ekoi - Le Creuset6
8Hilcona Racing Team3
9Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh3
10Caja Rural Cycling Team2
11Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren1
12Mercatone Uno - Weba1
13Adidas - Eurocash0
14Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo0
15JEWA TIROL Cycling Team0
16Podium Ambition0
17Saeco0
18SEE Turtles0
19Team Würth MODYF0
20Manada Coyote0


On top of these ranking we see fresh colours! The japanese team of Babymetal Cycling claims that category. I assume this was because of Arashiro-san in their roster. A really strong contender when it comes to flat stages who knows how to fight.

Second Place here goes here Stela - Vita. A funny similarity to Babymetal is that the responsible rider for that Ranking also is the same as the team nationality! The albanian Yzeiraj is one of the top notch fighters out there. Honorable mention also to Demiri, a young talent but already equipped with strong willpower.

Tafjord Kraft finishes 3rd here. With Belevics again and also Breen, Eislers and Vangstad going most likely for stage & race wins as escapists.

So this it is for the individual categories! Have fun tudying them. In the next days I will also present you the combined rankings in comparison to the overall prediction.

Stay tuned and feel free to discuss now here!

i.imgur.com/wu8Njxa.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/jerseydesigner-ezee.png
 
Ezeefreak
OVERALL RANKING


Lets see the overall scores of the teams and how this summarize view of the individual categories compares to the overall prediction shown earlier.

TeamTotal ScorePredictionPred. RankDifference
1Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team2582,182-1
2Tafjord Kraft1692,1111
3Strava1406,906-3
4Crabbe - CC Chevigny1175,7340
5Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo10712,0014-9
6Stela - Vita949,509-3
7Team Würth MODYF895,7352
8JEWA TIROL Cycling Team838,1071
9Podium Ambition834,2036
10Ekoi - Le Creuset759,4082
11Babymetal Cycling7418,4420-9
12Caja Rural Cycling Team5311,4413-1
13Mercatone Uno - Weba5313,6316-3
14Manada Coyote5210,20104
15Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh3411,09123
16Saeco3014,1118-2
17Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren2610,89116
18Adidas - Eurocash2316,7819-1
19SEE Turtles2212,67154
20Hilcona Racing Team1413,67173


By points we have a clear winner and everything else than promotion would be a huge disappointment, no pressure Pfft . Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team finished 2nd, but very close, at the preidiction and comes out first by points, so gaining one spot. The other way around for Tafjord Kraft, but there second place is also really stable.
Strava could gain 3 spots compared to the prediction. Crabbe is the only Team that had a stable position for both rankings. On 5 we have one of the team with the biggest gains, climbin 9 spots with their points, Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo. Also 9 positions were gained by Babymetal Cycling, not dead last when summarizing points anymore!
If we look at the teams who lost the most spots compared to the predictions then we have to name Podium Ambition and Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren. Both lost 6 places compared to that ranking. Overall it seems pretty consinstent.

So enough from me have fun with analyzing the data yourself! We're done now!
i.imgur.com/wu8Njxa.png

pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/jerseydesigner-ezee.png
 
seancoll
Only one part of these predictions seems to be inaccurate:

Ezeefreak wrote: No Shirts anymore this Year


In all seriousness, these are fun to see for sure, but not too exciting for our team. Glad to know that my overall ranking sits above my point total.

Think SEE Turtles are the only group with points in just 1 category - TT, while I'm sure there are some others with just 2 categories filled. Hoping to really fight against the odds this season I guess.

For specific teams, I'd stand by thinking Podium Ambition is more likely to rank close to their overall guess of 3, than their ranking points of 9. Sadly for Babymetal, I'd assume the same.

Tafjord stands out having points in all individual areas at the top, and figure that has to be to their benefit as they can highlight specific races in each area to focus instead of needing all hills or all sprint races each those that don't exactly fit their strengths.
MG Manager - SEE Turtles
 
Jajajasper
Let's hope the second prediction is closer
 
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