The Tour of Slovenia ends with a mammoth 53k individual time trial. Mostly flat but a few bumps to keep it interesting. The time gaps yesterday mean the top two spots seem likely to be decided in a mano-a-mano battle between Wirtgen and Dunbar with the EA man favored to win. But the third podium spot could probably be won by any rider back to 13th placed Würtz.
Würtz tops the favorites list, other than him the only favorites involved in the GC battle are Wirtgen and Ganna who started the day in 5th on GC.
The First 88 Riders
Overview
There are 88 riders more than 10 minutes down on GC, the best of the those is Gesink at 10’08. With Stage 2 being a TTT there are not shortage of serious TT riders here. The first 10 riders to start include Top TT riders like Goldstein, Vlatos, Gonzalez Salas ,and Viennet. Six of the first 16 are National Champions (Israel, Greece, Germany, Belgium, Norway and Russia). Not much later will be Latvian champion Belevics, Thomas, Leung, Sütterlin and Howson. After them, starting 42nd, is one of the favorites for the win, Zmorka.
After Zmorka the next strong contender is Mullen and then Zakarin. After that the quality of the riders slips with only 2nd tier contenders before Beniusis leaves the start gates. The final top contender in this group is likely to be Hepburn
Recap
Not surprisingly Goldstein, as the second starter behind Carsi, is first on the hot seat with a time of 1’09’45 but he is almost immediately beaten by Vlatos (-0’58). The gap proves that on a course this length the time difference between two relatively strong riders can be large.
Vlatos time proved resilient and despite all the quality riders on the course it wasn’t until Howson that it was beaten and then by 3 seconds. Other riders in between with strong times included Yatsevich (+0’08 vs Vlatos), Sütterlin (+0’20) and very surprisingly Arvidsson (+0’22).
Zmorka only managed 5th at +0’24, just 1 second better than Arvidsson. The last two top 10 times came from Zakarin (+0’32, 7th at the time) and Beniusis (+0’29, new 7th). So when Gesink reached the finish it was still Howson on the hot seat.
Hot Seat
Starting Slot
Name
Time
Improvement
174
Goldstein
1'09'45
-
172
Vlatos
1'08'47
0'58
139
Howson
1'08'44
0'03
Standings with 88 Riders Finished
Spoiler
The Next 73 Riders
Overview
The next group goes from 87th at the start of the day, Sulvaran (+9’54 in the GC), to 14th placed Koretzky (+3’00). That cut off is chosen because none of the riders from Koretzky in 14th to Gesbert in 18th are great TT riders so they seem unlikely to trouble the group in front. 19th placed Cosnefroy at 3’32 might be a bigger threat and should be the virtual yellow jersey once this set of riders has completed the course. Challengers for virtual yellow could include Kämna, Lammertink, and Fernandes who start the day in 21st to 23rd. Strong TT riders starting earlier in this group include Paillot, Tanfield, Vlasov, Kung, Razumov, Keizer and Izagirre.
Recap
Early on in the group Razumov had a stinker, losing 1’52 (40th) and Tanfield didn’t do much better (+1’36, 33rd).
The first good time came from Nareklishvili who came home 17 seconds down on Howson, 4th best on the day. Izagirre finished off a disappointing race with a decent time, + 1’06 (21st). His time at the sharp end of races may have come to an end.
Paillot would have hoped to be in GC contention coming into this stage but instead sat in 62nd place. It did not get a lot better as he only managed 11th (+0’45).
The next rider home was Vlasov and he showed that strong climbing can help by matching Howson’s time and taking the hot seat on the fractions. Shortly afterwards Ioannidis reinforced that by finishing just 8 seconds down. But Keizer really proved the point taking over lead and putting 23 seconds into the prior best time.
No other riders troubled the top 10 until the GC outsiders began to reach the finish. Fernandes laid down a solid marker, just 24 seconds slower than Keizer (4th best). Lammertink and Kämna failed to do the same losing 1’37 and 1’25 respectively. Instead it was 20th placed Vangstad, who put down the best time – just 6 seconds off Keizer. Cosnefroy couldn’t match that losing 37 seconds and dropping behind Vangstad in the virtual GC.
The rest of this group aren’t strong in the TT so as the race moved into its final stage Keizer had the stage lead and Vangstad the race lead.
----- Nareklishvili finishes with a strong time.
Paillot shows off his French Champion’s jersey
Hot Seat
Starting Slot
Name
Time
Improvement
139
Howson
1'08'44
-
61
Vlasov
1'08'43
0'01
47
Keizer
1'08'19
0'23
Standings with 161 Riders Finished
Spoiler
The Final 14 Riders
Overview
GC standings at the start of the day:
1
Tom Wirtgen
EA Vesuvio
12h22'41
2
Eddie Dunbar
Indosat Ooredoo
+ 14
3
Xuban Errazkin
Red Bull Zalgiris
+ 39
4
Jack Bobridge
Duolingo
+ 1'44
5
Filippo Ganna
Team Puma - SAP
+ 1'47
6
Ivo Oliveira
cycleYorkshire
+ 1'50
7
Omar Fraile
cycleYorkshire
+ 1'52
8
Rohan Dennis
Minions - Subwoolfer
+ 2'06
9
Yuttana Mano
King Power
+ 2'25
10
Nathan Brown
Minions - Subwoolfer
+ 2'33
11
Aurelien Paret-Peintre
Grieg-Maersk
+ 2'44
12
Nicola Conci
Zara - Irizar
+ 2'45
13
Mads Würtz
Grieg-Maersk
+ 2'49
14
Kristian Haugaard Jensen
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
s.t.
Of these only Errazkin and Jensen are TT non-factors while Paret-Peintre is also weaker than the rest by some margin.
Recap Würtz started the day with the potential to make huge gains in the GC but he had already lost 15 seconds to Keizer at the end of the first sector making a race-changing ride seem unlikely. By the finish he cut that to 12 seconds (3rd on the day) but not the kind of gains Griege will have hoped for. It was good enough to make him the virtual GC leader.
But Conci came home next just 1 second behind Würtz, good enough to keep Würtz behind him in the GC and another illustration that climbing skill matters on this course.
On the other hand Paret-Peintre showed that climbing skills aren’t enough on their own, he lost 3’24 (99th) dropping behind Würtz and Conci as well as many others, he ends the day in 19th on GC.
Brown lost a more respectable 1’49 but also dropped behind those two as well as Vangstad and Cosnefroy.
Mano was next home with a disappointing time, 37 seconds slower than Keizer (12th). He also falls behind Conci and Wurtz in the GC and loses the White Jersey to Conci by 4 seconds. Another outstanding day for Conci and Zara.
Brown finished up a poor day for Minions by losing 2’08 (65th). He will just stay ahead of his teammate but loses positions to all the same riders and Mano.
Fraile put an end to the sequence of poor times with 10th on the day, +0’33. Good enough to make him the new virtual GC leader.
Fraile also won his battle of the teammates as Oliveira lost 1’08 dropping him behind Fraile in GC, he just holds off Conci on the fractions. It will end up two in the top five on GC for cycleYorkshire
Next to finish was the defending champion, Ganna, he may not retain that title but he finishes in style putting up a new best time by 1 second. That came after he dropped 13 seconds to Keizer in the first section of the course. Obviously, he also takes over the virtual GC lead.
Things were not so rosy for 2020 winner Bobridge, he struggled home 2’30 down. He will drop all the way down to 11th in the GC. Errazkin was already down 3’05 at the 2nd check and had been passed by the top 2 as Bobridge finished. He ends up losing 5’19 and dropping to 17th on GC.
Dunbar started the day needing 14 seconds to catch Wirtgen and with a 1’33 lead over Ganna. By the first check he looked safe from Ganna, just 18 seconds down on the best time.
Wirtgen crossed the first check 15 seconds down meaning little change in their relative positions. By the 2nd check Wirtgen’s advantage had grown to 7 seconds.
Dunbar finished in 13th place, 37 seconds down on Ganna, more than enough to hold 2nd on GC. But Wirtgen showed no sign of weakness and finished the race with a very solid 6th place, 23 seconds down making him the winner of the 2022 Tour of Slovenia.
In addition to 3rd on the GC and a stage win Ganna also scored enough points today to give him the points jersey. Gesbert won the mountain jersey yesterday and finishes 2nd in the points competition, a nice race for him. cycleYorkshire win the teams competition edging out Red Bull Zalgiris by just 2 seconds.
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Tour of Slovenia 
