Here's a reminder of what the Top of the GC looks like:
1
Silvio Herklotz
Team Puma - SAP
77h43'16
2
Justo Tenorio
MOL Cycling Team
+ 4'19
3
Lachlan Morton
cycleYorkshire
+ 4'41
4
Pierre Latour
Polar
+ 4'43
5
Pavel Sivakov
Tinkoff - La Datcha Team
+ 5'40
6
Tim Wellens
Aegon - Peroni
+ 6'26
7
Ryan Eastman
Duolingo
+ 7'19
8
Adam Yates
De Stijl Cycling
+ 9'48
9
Patrick Schelling
Team UBS
+ 11'07
10
Caio Godoy
EA Vesuvio
+ 11'11
11
William Chiarello
ELCO - ABEA
+ 11'47
12
Tadej Pogacar
Cedevita
+ 12'51
13
Jan Hirt
Moser - Sygic
+ 14'01
14
Primoz Roglic
King Power
+ 14'08
15
Tao Geoghegan Hart
Isostar - Specialized
+ 17'20
For Herklotz, this is nothing more than a victory lap, but behind him, drama ensues. Tenorio, Morton and Latour are intwined in a super close battle for the podium. Sivakov might be in it as well, he might also have his hands full defending his 5th place against Wellens and maybe even Eastman.
The Top 7 look set, but then we have four riders within just 2 minutes fighting for the final Top 10 spots, namely Yates, Schelling, Godoy and Chiarello. Pogacar, Hirt and Roglic are still in striking range of the Top 10, but probably only from a breakaway. That’s the road to potential success for Geoghegan Hart and everyone behind him as well.
The fight for the mountain classification is also entirely open, and as many as 8 riders have very good chances to take the jersey to Paris:
1
Thymen Arensman
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
101
2
Eduard Alexander Beltran
Cedevita
85
3
Tadej Pogacar
Cedevita
82
4
Antonio Barbio
Team UBS
82
5
Tobias Foss
Aker - MOT
71
6
Primoz Roglic
King Power
70
7
Thibaut Pinot
ISA - Hexacta
69
8
Silvio Herklotz
Team Puma - SAP
68
Arensman wears the polka dot for a 16th day in a row, already second most all time, but given he won’t score any more points today barring a miracle, and up to 92 points to be gained, it would be a shock if he makes it 17 tomorrow. With those 92 points in mind, obviously someone from outside of this group could still make the jump to the top of the classification, perhaps a Chamorro, Smith or Vosekalns, but none of those have shown anything to inspire confidence as of late.
Not to forget, Dainese and Manninen will keep their fingers crossed that breakaway riders take away as many points as possible from Herklotz. Manninen in particular is entirely out of reach of the green jersey if Herklotz scores 15 points - which he would do with a third place finish.
Lastly, the team classification is also far from decided yet. Moser - Sygic has held the lead for a while now thanks to good, or at least steady performances from Hirt and Warchol. But Aker - MOT are just 1’11 behind and will hope for breakaway efforts from Preidler, Foss and Amezawa to gain that time. And even EA Vesuvio at + 6’30 isn’t completely out of it yet if perhaps Kirsch and/or Girdlestone join the group of the day, but their recent tactics make this seem unlikely.
One last day of going all out for the climbers. One more day of suffering, of desperately trying to survive for the sprinters, so that they may fight for glory tomorrow in Paris. It’s all to play for - let’s dive in!
Cedevita are at it again: Second in the mountain classification Beltran attacks! He’s followed by Geoghegan Hart, Foss, Warchol, Pinot and Smith, many of the riders you’d expect to go for it.
Majka wants to take the spotlight in what is likely his final GT mountain stage, he leads the next group of attackers. Those also include Karnulin, Paret-Peintre, Pronskiy, Arensman, Hosek and Kirsch – EA Vesuvio is defying expectations!
Another couple of riders including Kritskiy make a move, but Delco chases them down. ELCO – ABEA might want someone in the breakaway as well and control the pace before it’s too late.
Burke attacks, a rare sight for Zwift so far. But Delco continues to set a high pace. You have to assume they’re waiting for Giannoutsos, who’s slowly making his way through the peloton. The 13 original attackers have come together but are only 45 seconds ahead.
ELCO are out in force, but as the road gradually turns uphill, it’ll be harder and harder for them to control the situation. They need to make a move quickly.
But Giannoutsos comes too late. Puma take over, the tempo slows down considerably and the breakaway quickly gains a lead of 2 minutes.
The Port de Balès is 12.2 kilometers long at an average of 7.6%, but there are some much steeper sections sprinkled in between. Pronskiy falls behind early, but he was absolutely instrumental in fending off ELCO’s challenge, so if this group makes it, he’ll certainly have had a part in that.
Hosek, Arensman and Paret-Peintre follow soon, with still over 8 kilometers left on the climb. Not a big surprise for the former two, but Grieg might have hoped for at least a little more from their rider.
Geoghegan Hart is on a mission today. He sets a brutal pace and soon, only Warchol, Smith and Kirsch remain with him. They have almost 8 minutes on the peloton already by now.
Beltran, Foss and Pinot make their way back to the front when Smith takes over, but Majka and Karnulin don’t. For the latter, that’s certainly a disappointment.
Warchol attacks first towards the mountain sprint. Beltran (85), Foss (71) and Pinot (69) have the most mountain points in this group.
Foss leaves a gap, trapping the others behind him. Smith can’t follow Warchol either.
Geoghegan Hart comes around everyone to cross the line second, underlining his strength. Beltran, Foss and Pinot are only fifth through seventh.
Arensman actually does collect two more points as the 10th rider at the summit. This leaves the mountain classification, including only the relevant riders ahead of the peloton and with 72 points left, like this:
1.
Arensman
103
2.
Beltran
93
5.
Foss
77
6.
Pinot
74
9.
Smith
55
14.
Warchol
38
16.
Geoghegan Hart
32
At the tail end of the race, Goldstein is fighting for survival. He’s already more than 15 minutes behind the leaders, the time limit is going to be a tough goal. Same for Moser riding just ahead of him.
We’re at seven riders at the front again heading into the Col de Peyresourde (10km at 6.7%). The gap to the peloton, which had been 9’30 at the summit, has come down to 8 minutes on the descent.
They shouldn’t be too idle, either. De Stijl and UBS have picked up chasing duties, with Yates’ 8th and Schelling’s 9th place under attack from Geoghegan Hart. But 165 riders still in this group indicate that the pace isn’t too high yet.
In the breakaway, it’s too high for Pinot though. He was in the group of the day both yesterday and the day before and he’s paying for it.
Beltran is the next to drop. He’ll pick up minor points now at best, we’ll have to see if that’ll be enough for the polka dot.
Same for Foss a few hundred meters later. Could there be hope for Arensman after all? Or will one of the newcomers, Geoghegan Hart and Warchol, swoop in at the last minute? Smith is holding on so far, too.
The four sprint towards the summit. Everyone’s keeping up with Warchol, for now.
He and Geoghegan Hart confirm they are the strongest today. The Brit takes 16 points, Smith adds 8 to his tally.
Beltran comes away with 6, trailing the leaders by a minute at the summit. He is getting closer and closer to the KoM lead after all. Foss and Pinot are 30 and 60 seconds behind him. It’s the longest downhill and flat stretch of the stage now though, maybe they can make it back to the front.
The mountain classification now looks like this:
1.
Arensman
103
2.
Beltran
99
5.
Foss
81
6.
Pinot
76
9.
Smith
63
11.
Warchol
50
13.
Geoghegan Hart
48
Sequera leads the peloton over the summit, their deficit is back up to 9 minutes.
A group around Amezawa and Preidler was distanced on the climb and at the moment, it doesn’t look like they’ll rejoin. This would be a big blow for Aker’s team classification ambitions.
The breakaway, back to six riders, continues to lose ground in the flat parts, their lead is down to 7 minutes in the first slopes of the Hourquette d’Ancizan (10km at 7.7%)
Beltran and Foss are dropped again with 4 kilometers left on this climb. But a 6th place finish is already enough for the Colombian to take the lead in the mountain classification – that should be doable. Meanwhile, the Preidler group did eventually make it back to the main peloton.
Geoghegan Hart takes another 16 points, but Smith is up there with him now! He collects 12 points, 10 for Warchol, 8 for Kirsch.
6 for Beltran and we have a new leader in the mountain classification for the first time in over two weeks. With only 40 points remaining on the stage, and assuming those currently behind him are out of it, only Smith can stop him, and only if he wins on the Tourmalet and at the finish. Foss moves up to third in the classification.
1.
Beltran
105
2.
Arensman
103
3.
Foss
85
6.
Pinot
78
7.
Smith
75
10.
Geoghegan Hart
64
11.
Warchol
60
Just 49 riders remain in the peloton after the Peyresourde. Hirt and Seboka are there for Moser, Preidler and Amezawa for Aker, but Warchol of course still has the upper hand on Foss further up the road. Moser look solid for the team classification. No Top 25 rider is missing from this group other than those from the breakaway. The gap to the leaders stands at 7’30 ahead of the descent.
But that goes down significantly, to less than 5 minutes heading into the Tourmalet (14.3km at 8%). Beltran has made it back, at least for now, and Foss still remains between them and the peloton, which is already visible in the background.
MOL have taken over the lead, perhaps trying to isolate Herklotz for one last attempt by Tenorio? Madouas is still there, Stork is gone. Pinot is also immediately off the back, he’ll likely lose his 16th place in the GC today.
As expected, Beltran is distanced soon. If he manages to stay ahead of the peloton until the summit, he’s got the polka dot jersey guaranteed. But at the pace MOL are setting, that seems unlikely. Geoghegan Hart tries to counteract that with an higher pace himself and he manages to increase the lead again, which had dropped to as little as 3 minutes.
21st overall Kritskiy is dropped alongside his three remaining teammates. The peloton has slowed down a bit though, and they trail the breakaway by 4 minutes.
It’s not the first time we’ve seen this: We have an early attack by Chiarello! If he catches the peloton off guard and no one wants to take responsibility, this could be his big play for the Top 10.
He soon gains over a minute, prompting two more riders to ask: Hey, why not me, too? Hirt and Roglic go for it with 5 kilometers left to climb.
Chiarello quickly catches and passes Beltran. He’s already got 2 minutes on the peloton, Hirt is exactly halfway in between, Roglic 20 seconds further behind. The remaining four breakaway riders are still just under 3 minutes ahead of the Brazilian.
Another attack, now by Pogacar, who needs to be careful not to be overtaken by Hirt and Roglic. Madouas and Kennaugh lead the peloton, but still not at a high pace. The likes of UBS, De Stijl or EA Vesuvio don’t have any domestiques remaining.
Uncaptured by the cameras at the time, Seboka had been dropped from the peloton and is already trailing by 4 minutes. Aker – MOT still have three guys in there, but Warchol and Hirt are of course now ahead, and Foss will be struggling after his earlier exploits.
At the front, Kirsch is dropped by another acceleration from Warchol. He now has to stay as close as possible, and regroup on the downhill.
Hirt also moves past Beltran. He’s got 2 minutes on the peloton, which puts him close to Schelling and Godoy, but with Chiarello another 50 seconds ahead and Pogacar on the move, the Top 10 still seem out of reach for the moment.
When Geoghegan Hart attacks, Smith is done. That’s the mountain jersey secured for Beltran!
Similarly, the team classification seems to be decided. Preidler, Amezawa and Foss are all distanced from the main group. Madouas continues his excellent work that he’s shown throughout the race.
It’s not enough to keep the leaders close, though. Geoghegan Hart crosses the Tourmalet first, which also brings him within range of second place of the mountain classification, if he wins the stage. He and Warchol have 5 minutes on the peloton and 2 on Chiarello.
Just under the summit, it looks like Madouas is running on empty and Tenorio finally makes his move – but surely this comes a bit late? Morton and Wellens cover it, Latour accelerates as well.
Tenorio gets a small gap, but Latour leads the chase and we have seen what he can do on the downhill on multiple occasions. The group is stretched thin, but so far, every major GC player is hanging on.
Tenorio still gives it everything he’s got. He reaches Pogacar, the two hold a lead of 25 seconds.
As Warchol and Geoghegan Hart reach the foot of Luz Ardiden, this is where we stand. Chiarello might be their most significant threat for the stage win, he’s also now in virtual 8th place in the GC, even coming close to Eastman in 7th. But if the top favorites really go for it early, they could surely still make it to the very front.
The two leaders set an easy pace in the first kilometer or so, but when Kirsch reaches them, Geoghegan Hart knows they’re going too slow. He attacks!
Meanwhile, Tenorio and Pogacar have held on to their lead all throughout the descent. They trail Roglic and Beltran by 34 seconds.
It doesn’t take long for Madouas to bring them back again. The group trails the leaders by only 3’25, also diminishing Chiarello’s gains.
Chiarello moves past Smith and now has his eyes set on Kirsch, who was once again distanced by Geoghegan Hart and Warchol.
A new attack from the peloton and who else could it be but Latour! McNulty has now come to the front behind him.
Chiarello is flying now! He catches up to the duo and immediately blows past them. A great effort by Geoghegan Hart and Warchol will not be rewarded with the stage win.
Latour is caught again, now Tenorio goes with Wellens in his wheel. Morton and Herklotz both react, this is the biggest move of the stage so far! Sivakov comes to the front, Wellens is a big threat for his 5th place.
Tenorio, Herklotz and Wellens go past Roglic with ease, but Morton is struggling!
At the front, Geoghegan Hart leaves Warchol behind in pursuit of Chiarello. ELCO – ABEA are hoping for their second stage win of the race, but he only has 2’35 on Tenorio.
Tenorio and Herklotz attack and Wellens can’t follow. They reach Smith and quickly pass him.
We haven’t seen much of Hirt lately, but he’s still out there doing his thing. 1’35 behind Chiarello, he’s still ahead of Tenorio and Herklotz.
Morton and Sivakov lead the way in the main group and more and more riders are struggling. Pogacar and Giannoutsos fall behind, and Godoy is in big trouble, too. He might very well lose his Top 10 spot today!
Take one look behind and immediately you miss Herklotz doing Herklotz things: In what feels like an instant, he attacks to not only leave Tenorio behind, but to fly by all of Kirsch, Hirt, Warchol and Geoghegan Hart! He wants to conclude this race in style!
He quickly reaches Chiarello – surely, the stage win is only a formality now?
Only five riders are with Morton. They trail Wellens by 38 seconds – the gap between him and Sivakov stood at 46 before today! That’s going to be a nailbiter.
Also, remember that while Tenorio is of course well on his way to secure second place, Morton and Latour are only separated by 2 seconds in the fight for third! And while Schelling will almost certainly fall behind Chiarello today, Yates still has an outside chance to keep his 8th place, but he’d need to gain approximately a minute and a half on the ELCO leader.
Pogacar meanwhile will likely lose his 12th place to Hirt, but is battling with Roglic for 13th, who’s 1’17 behind him in the GC but 40 seconds ahead on the road, in that next group.
Alright, now that we know what the stakes are, let’s return to the front. Herklotz attacks very briefly with 4 kilometers to go and he gets a gap. Chiarello has to pace himself now to secure his GC gains. Hirt has moved up to third on the road.
3 kilometers to go and Tenorio catches Geoghegan Hart and Warchol. They hang on for a bit in an effort to secure at least 5th on the day. The gap between Wellens and Sivakov, incredibly, stands currently at exactly 46 seconds.
Not much is changing now, with everyone just trying to get through this climb. Only one man can still go out of the saddle: Herklotz almost leisurely strides towards his third stage win.
Tenorio is almost with Hirt, trying to get to third place. Wellens has meanwhile reached the former breakaway riders, putting everything he can towards that challenge for 5th overall.
No one could challenge this man, not today, not at any point in this race, really: Silvio Herklotz wins on Luz Ardiden and he wins the 2022 Tour de France!
Chiarello had an absolutely remarkable three days in the Pyrenees, finishing second today and climbing all the way from 12th after the time trial to 8th in the GC. What a performance! Behind him, Tenorio and Hirt fight for third place …
… and the Spaniard’s got it. With a stage win and second in the GC, Tenorio probably achieves close to what was the maximum possible. Hirt has his highlight performance here today, but ultimately this race has been a big disappointment for him. He misses the Top 10 after finishing 3rd last year, but Moser – Sygic will at least add a win in the team classification, and Warchol moves up a few places, too.
Wellens is fifth today. With two consecutive strong performances, he’s given himself the chance to reach fifth in the GC as well. That all depends on the gap to Sivakov – the Russian is sprinting towards the line!
Warchol and Geoghegan Hart finish next. They’ve been very strong today, but not strong enough to buck the trend of breakaways simply not succeeding in this race. The Moser co-captain at least moves up to 16th overall, while Geoghegan Hart has to wait for Roglic to finish to see if he makes any GC gains. In the background, Yates is being distanced and it looks like Latour won’t mount a challenge for third place, either.
Sivakov crosses the line … 44 seconds behind Wellens! He remains ahead by a mere 2 seconds! You can’t get much closer than that. A remarkable race for the youngster that even saw him wear yellow for a few days ends on a high note. Morton secures third place as Latour loses a few seconds.
Eastman rode a very unspectacular race overall, he’ll end up 7th, a slight disappointment but a bad start and some good performances from his rivals prevented a better result. Schelling never had and outstanding day, similarly just riding consistently. He’ll lose a spot to Chiarello and ends up 10th, as Yates just barely remains ahead of him despite losing time here. Kirsch finishes 12th on the day, a decent effort from the breakaway.
At the very last minute, the fourth breakaway riders Smith is overtaken by this group of Burke – another surprising performance without much to show for –, Figueiredo, McNulty and Lunke. Roglic can’t keep up, but he manages to stay ahead of Geoghegan Hart by around half a minute. He now looks backwards if this is enough to move past Pogacar.
Godoy is one of today’s bigger disappointments. He drops from 10th to 12th, falling behind Chiarello and Hirt, who’ll end up in 11th overall. Pogacar concludes an overall very solid Tour by holding off Roglic by exactly 10 seconds to remain 13th in the GC. Nesset and Giannoutsos confirm their Top 25 spots, the former even gains one place today.
Mountain classification winner Beltran and Foss, who ended up 6th on that list, finish next to each other today and in the GC, where they keep their 18th and 17th place, respectively. Preidler, who finishes ahead of them, gains two places to end up in 20th overall.
Pinot suffered and basically switched places with Warchol to finish 19th overall. He’s still not the worst Top 20 rider today though: Karnulin finishes almost 15 minutes behind Herklotz and drops out of the Top 20. Kritskiy comes in another minute later, he falls from 21st to 25th.
Dainese comes to the line some 36 minutes behind the yellow jersey. With Herklotz’s stage win today, the Italian needs a stage win tomorrow to win the points classification - nothing less will suffice.
So there we have it. Herklotz not only confirms his overall victory, he makes sure he does it with the widest win margin in MG Tour history, almost two minutes more than Pluchkin’s margin in 2015. Following his third stage win, he also has a good chance to win the points classification. We’ve covered Dainese already, but Manninen is theoretically in striking distance, too. However, in addition to the stage win, he also needs at least six points at the intermediate sprint earlier in the stage - that’s second place.
Behind the German dominator, Tenorio and Morton are the expected podium finishers. Latour and Sivakov outperform expectations a bit, though the latter was expected to win white as he indeed did.
The mountain and team classifications are also decided in favor of Beltran and Moser - Sygic, but we’d be remissed not to acknowledge Arensman’s brilliant and persistent ride. If there was an award for the most combative rider, he’d have that one locked up.
Only one thing remains to wrap this race up, and that’s making it to Paris. The riders will board planes tonight to fly to Chantilly where they meet at the starting line one final time. See you there!
Tour de France 
