It’s the last chance for the climbers to make a difference until stage 18, so hopefully we can expect some fireworks. That being said, with the finish coming after a long descent, many of the gaps created on the Col de la Madone de Gorbio could well be erased by the time we get to Monaco. And, with this profile, this stage also has breakaway win written all over it.
With that in mind, this is obviously also a huge day for the mountain classification. Arensman still has yet to be dethroned, leading by 58 points over Herklotz and 60 over Foss, with Barbio and Ardila still in between but unlikely to make a big impact in the high mountains. Win all five mountain climbs and you gain 64 points today.
In the GC, Herklotz is looking set after his two stage wins yesterday and the day before, but the likes of Sivakov, Tenorio and Morton surely haven’t given up hope yet that a poor day or two might still topple him. Still, the fight for the remaining podium places might be the more interesting: Schelling and Wellens are both still within a single minute of Tenorio in third place and without the yellow jersey to boost his moral, Sivakov is vulnerable in second place, too.
Riders all the way down to Karnulin in 16th place are still within a minute and a half of the Top 10, and those behind him might make strides by being in breakaways. So there is a lot to play for here today as everyone is setting themselves up before we head towards the remaining time trial and the Pyrenees.
You can’t fault him for not trying! Arensman is on the move again.
Foss has emerged as one of the main threats for the Dutch, he attacks following fellow U25 rider Pogacar.
Chamorro leads the next group that also includes Tolhoek, Phodingam, Beltran and Vingegaard.
More attacks come from Seboka, Amezawa, Rodriguez and Osorio.
Similar to Evonik yesterday, Gazelle tried to keep up the pace until their chosen rider for the breakaway made it to the front. It’s Figueiredo, but he has a good minute to make up on the Seboka group.
And after a few kilometers, he hasn’t yet made contact. The other 12 riders have united and are riding at a decently high pace, keeping Figueiredo at around 1’10. If he can hold that gap, maybe he’s got a chance to get there in the descent.
The Col Saint-Martin is a tough climb, 17.4km at 6%. It’s too much for Arensman. He was never going to compete with the other riders in that group, but once again showed off the jersey. Now he has to hope that the points are distributed as equally as possible, and that Foss gets as few as possible. The Norwegian has 40, Phodingam has 26, Tolhoek 15 and Beltran and Seboka are both at 10.
Looks like Foss and Seboka won’t collect many more points! Probably still feeling the efforts from their breakaway attempts in the prior days, they get dropped as soon as Beltran takes over and increases the pace. Amezawa and Osorio are in trouble, too. The group has 5 minutes on the peloton.
With 2.5 kilometers to the top, only Rodriguez, Chamorro and Vingegaard remain with Beltran and Pogacar.
Rodriguez attacks, going for the first 16 mountain points. But he’s quickly overtaken by Chamorro. Vingegaard looks a bit outmatched.
It’s an easy Cedevita sweep as Beltran crosses the line first. He and Pogacar have 30 seconds on their three chasers and 5’45 on the peloton.
At the foot of the Col du Turini (16.3km at 6.7%), eight riders have come back together at the front. This is the situation.
In the peloton, Zwift is doing a whole lot of work. Why? You tell me. Perhaps out of irritation that they didn’t get a man in the breakaway? Either way, they keep the gap to the breakaway close-ish at around 5 minutes.
Part of why the gap doesn’t increase much at first is also that the breakaway wasn’t riding very quickly. At least that’s what's indicated by everyone in the group hanging on for almost all of the climb. Then, Chamorro increases the pace and first Phodingam and then Foss and Amezawa are once again distanced. Maybe Preidler needs to be their main guy in the Pyrenees.
Near the summit, Chamorro attacks but again the Cedevita duo counters.
Chamorro briefly manages to stay with them, but not all the way. This time, Pogacar takes 16 points, not the ideal setup but Beltran still gets 12 points to bring his total up to 38.
Zwift’s time at the front of the peloton seems to have been only a short intermezzo for some TV time. When the pack catches Arensman, it’s thanks to a combined effort of some of the GC teams. Notably, Herklotz is already a bit isolated, with Stork and Madouas further behind in this group of 83. The gap to the leaders remains steady at around 5 minutes.
Chamorro and Beltran are both good downhill riders, Pogacar really isn’t and he can’t keep up with them. The young Slovenian is the best placed among the breakaway riders in the GC, 19th at +10’15 and virtually in the Top 10. But the stage is still long, of course.
As they reach the Col de Braus (9.9km at 6.5%), he’s back though. Chamorro pulls his weight and contributes turns at the front, admirably but also out of necessity. The peloton continues to not give them a free pass and their pursuers are also just 30 seconds behind.
Polar and cycleYorkshire are the main forces keeping the tempo high. Morton and Latour are close to the front next to Herklotz.
Surprisingly, 15th overall Pinot already has to relent! With 75 kilometers to go, this could be a brutal day for him. But he’s got teammates waiting, trying to pick him back up.
The lead of the breakaway is now down to 3’40, but perhaps that’s only a side effect of the real plan by the teams leading the peloton: isolating Herklotz. With Madouas, his final domestique is dropped with still more than 70 kilometers and two more climbs to go. The yellow jersey might be vulnerable.
Up ahead, it’s the same image as we near the summit …
… but Chamorro actually pulls through this time! A strong performance and a signal that he won’t give up easily. Only 6 points for Beltran.
Another big name is in trouble! 7th overall Hirt can’t follow the tough pace. Warchol comes to help him out.
Guerreiro leads a group of only 30 riders over the summit, but slowly, there’s less and less domestique firepower left. The Portuguese looks tired and it remains to be seen if Dina, Pidcock and Fraile behind him can help out more. The gap to the breakaway is back up to 5 minutes.
Once again, Pogacar has to spend extra energy on the downhill to keep up with, or rather to return to, his two companions. Here, he uses the motorbike slipstream … perhaps something for the commisaires to take a look at?
The chasing group has split on that climb. Vingegaard is the first man roughly 1’10 behind Pogacar, then Foss 10 seconds behind him and 15 ahead of Rodriguez and Amezawa. They’re not entirely out of the race for the stage win yet, given two more long descents are still to come, but they need to step up.
Pidcock, one of the premier downhill riders of the entire field, leads the peloton in pursuit, but perhaps unintentionally creates a gap behind him. Latour, opportunistic as ever, latches on, but they’d both be caught soon.
Meanwhile, 11th overall Kritskiy was distanced in the final meters of the climb. Lunke assists him, they trail the main group by 40 seconds and have 25 on the Hirt group. Pinot is already another 2 minutes behind at this point.
Chamorro is once again the strongest on the Col de Castillon, the softest climb of the day. Beltran even has to leave a small gap at the end.
In the peloton, Guerreiro has recovered a bit and is doing his thing, bringing the gap down to 4 minutes and keeping Kritskiy and Hirt, now riding together, at around 45 seconds.
We’ve reached the Mediterranean Sea! Chamorro briefly created a gap again as Beltran got caught out behind Pogacar on the descent, but they’re all back together again by the intermediate sprint in Menton. They have 5 minutes on the peloton and with only one climb left, they might start to feel really good about their chances. Foss and Vingegaard follow at + 1’35.
Kritskiy is a horrendous downhiller and Lunke now has to work to bring him back to the Hirt group. Those guys trail the peloton of 26 riders by 1’05.
Make that 21: More and more domestiques are being dropped. Yates himself now takes the lead.
And then he attacks! Latour and Herklotz follow, then it’s Kirsch, Schelling, Wellens and Morton.
They don’t get away but many riders are now struggling at the back of the group. Geoghegan Hart and Karnulin, 14th and 16th overall, are among the distanced. They had already lost time yesterday.
Those accelerations also erase much of the gap to the leading trio, which now is suddenly only 1’40 ahead. Can they increase the pace again? Or will we go another stage without a breakaway win?
They at least try! With 7.4 kilometers to the summit, Chamorro attacks. Pogacar can follow, Beltran can’t!
Chiarello and Preidler are among the next victims of the high pace. In front of them, Roglic, Schelling and Sivakov are struggling, too.
Meanwhile, Hirt has gone solo in his effort to limit the losses. But he trails the yellow jersey group by 3 minutes already.
Sivakov, Roglic and Schelling are indeed distanced and now Wellens falls behind next to Figueiredo, too. This would be a big blow to his podium chances.
Latour leads the remaining favorites as they pick off Vingegaard and Foss. Only Eastman, Herklotz, Morton, Yates, Tenorio and Godoy are left, with Amezawa also hanging on.
Pogacar and Chamorro keep up a steady rhythm, their lead has been constant at around 1’30 for a kilometer or so now, but still more than 5 to go.
Further behind, 2nd overall Sivakov has caught up to Wellens. They trail the now Eastman-led group by a bit over a minute. The Schelling/ Roglic group is 40 seconds down the road, Geoghegan Hart and Karnulin another minute, and Hirt one minute behind the two. Another minute (that’s 4’30 behind the yellow jersey group) are Kritskiy, Warchol and Pinot.
Pogacar and Chamorro slowed down a bit which even allowed Beltran to make it back. As their lead dropped to a minute over the yellow jersey group, Pogacar attacks! He’s giving it his all, putting all his hopes on a calm ride by the GC contenders for the remaining 3 kilometers of this climb.
And so far, that hope is not misplaced. No attacks with 2 kilometers left on the climb. Amezawa and Foss even manage to hold on so far.
But it’s getting harder and harder with every pedal stroke for the breakaway. Beltran has returned, and then the worst-case scenario for them happens: a Herklotz attack from the chasing group!
The German wants to go three for three stage wins, but that’s not an all out attack. Morton keeps him on a tight leash. A little bit of hope yet remains for the breakaway.
They make it to the top ( Chamorro - Beltran - Pogacar) with 18 seconds on Herklotz, who’s a very good downhill rider himself. He also collects another 8 mountain points.
Herklotz wants to use his descending skills for GC gains, too! Only Morton can follow, then there’s a gap to Tenorio. The former breakaway riders are off the back of this group, the gaps to everyone behind them are only increasing.
Herklotz and Morton reach the breakaway and the yellow jersey immediately attacks again!
But his pursuers are not giving up without a fight! Beltran chases hard, he’d be Herklotz’s main opponent if this came down to a sprint, but we’ve seen that Pogacar just can’t gain time on anyone on a downhill, so this is Cedevita’s only strategy.
They actually bring Herklotz back and Chamorro goes straight past everyone. Can he catch them off guard?
He might have hit the perfect moment. Herklotz doesn’t want to chase, the group slows down and is caught by the other favorites – and Chamorro is 30 seconds ahead!
One more quick look behind: Sivakov, who trails the favorites by around 1’35, has left Wellens behind, who in turn has 1’20 on the Schelling and Roglic group, which also includes Chiarello.
But back to the fight for the stage win. 6.5 kilometers to the finish, most of them still downhill, and Latour attacks! He’s done this exact move very successfully before, but back on stage 4, there was no Chamorro up ahead.
And Chamorro is looking mighty good. He reaches the streets of Monaco with a lead of 40 seconds – only 2 flat and slightly uphill kilometers remain for him.
In the pursuit of Latour, Morton and Yates attack, and Tenorio and Godoy are struggling to follow!
He’s done it! With the harbour of Monaco in the background, Juan Ernesto Chamorro can celebrate the first true breakaway stage win of this race, even if he came by it in an unusual way after initially being caught. But a great tactical move, timed perfectly, returned him to the front of the race and brought him this victory.
Herklotz won’t get the stage win but he can still gain time – he attacks again!
First, Latour takes second place with another well-timed attack. He’ll also make major strides in the GC today.
Thanks to Yates’ quick finish, Herklotz is left only with the 8 bonus seconds for finishing third. Morton and Eastman as well as the Cedevita duo get the same time and while Godoy made it back to this group in time …
… Tenorio did not. He loses 28 seconds on them.
Props to Vingegaard, Amezawa and Foss for their efforts today. They land just outside of the Top 10, but keep the remaining GC contenders behind them.
The first of those to arrive at the finish line are Sivakov and Wellens. At + 2’09, the former just barely holds on to his second place, while the latter loses 2’44 on the stage winner, drops one place in the GC and of course increases his deficit to the podium places.
Then there’s a gap of over a minute this group including a surprisingly strong Burke and Figueiredo, Preidler, Schelling, Roglic, Chiarello and Kirsch. The Swiss is hit hardest, simply because he started the day in the best GC position, but he can’t keep his 5th overall after this, of course. They come in at + 4’03.
Karnulin has another tough day, finishing alongside Nesset and Girdlestone another minute later.
Hirt is easily the biggest disappointment of today. Thought of as a strong Top 5 contender pre-race, he loses five and a half minutes on the Herklotz group today and drops well out of the Top 10. Geoghegan Hart, who finishes some 20 seconds ahead of him, also has to leave behind his Top 10 ambitions after a rough few days in the Alps - unless some breakaway shenanigans in the Pyrenees bring him back, of course.
The same is very much true for Warchol, Pinot and Kritskiy, who finish in this big group at + 7’31. Even more than Hirt, Kritskiy drops the most places among the Top 20 today.
Petit is the final rider on the road today, making the time limit with 8 minutes to spare. We remain with 190 riders in the peloton, losing only two over the course of these three stages in the Alps. Goldstein remains in possession of last place overall.
Winners among the main GC contenders today include Latour, Yates, Eastman and Godoy, who move up from 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th to 5th, 6th, 8th and 9th, respectively. Morton also leapfrogs Tenorio and takes third place, those two and Sivakov are seperated by only 20 seconds.
On the flipside, Schelling drops from 5th to 10th, Hirt from 7th to 13th and Kritskiy from 11th to 19th. Wellens, as mentioned, only loses one place but his gap to the podium increases from 45 seconds to around two and a half minutes.
As (mostly) expected, Herklotz takes the lead in the points classification. He’s 11 ahead of Manninen, who has two flat stages coming up before the Pyrenees to take green back and gain as much of an advantage as possible.
Meanwhile, Arensman will add another four, likely five days in the polka-dots, but the cadre of rivals has expanded: Beltran is now in second place with 58 to his 100 points, Chamorro and Pogacar collected 52 and 50, respectively, on this stage alone, and Herklotz and Foss are up to 50 and 48.
Pogacar has made up some ground on Sivakov in the young rider classification but still trails by six and a half minutes, and despite their leaders’ poor showing, Moser - Sygic remain in the lead of the team classification, though only 12 seconds ahead of Gazelle and 55 ahead of EA Vesuvio.
We now have a flat, a hilly and another flat stage coming up before the GC contenders return to the focus for the time trial in Mirepoix and the following three days in the Pyrenees. Stay tuned!
Tour de France 
