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Tour of East Java - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 08-02-2023 03:03
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Directeur Sportif
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 Tour of East Java
The Tour of East Java returns for its 9th season and the Javenese have double the fun as the race goes from 2 stages to 4. After one season as a 3-stage race in 2013, the race returned in 2015 as a 2-stage race with the one flat, one mountain format it would hold for the next 7 editions.
But 2022 sees a new parcours and two more sprint stages. Three of the stages are actually on Lombok, which isn’t East Java but the latter island kept the marketing rights. The other big new is a longer, harder mountain stage which climbs Mount Rinjani in two pieces, a 15k, 8%, main course, a short descent and then a 3.5k, 8.9% finale.
Despite the race being less of a PPRD feast than it was before it still attracts two of the biggest names in the peloton –  Herklotz and  Phinney.
Herklotz beat Phinney into 2nd last year after the American bested him the year before. So this could be seen as the rubber match. If one of them wins they will become the first two-time winner of the race. While these two seem like the mostly likely winners the race attracts a deep field behind them.
| | FL | MT | HI | RS | AC |  | Phinney | 73 | 85 | 77 | 74 | 75 |  | Herklotz | 72 | 84 | 81 | 80 | 76 |  |  Madrazo | 66 | 83 | 74 | 77 | 69 |  |  Wellens | 72 | 82 | 75 | 80 | 68 |  |  Cattaneo | 70 | 82 | 70 | 80 | 70 |  |  Padun | 67 | 82 | 77 | 74 | 75 |  |  Quintana | 68 | 82 | 74 | 76 | 66 |  | Olivier | 72 | 81 | 76 | 80 | 71 |  |  Pinot | 72 | 80 | 74 | 79 | 69 |  |  Warchol | 70 | 80 | 74 | 77 | 70 |  |  Monsalve | 67 | 80 | 75 | 79 | 72 |  |  Novak | 68 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 76 | |  Penasa | 70 | 80 | 74 | 72 | 76 | |  Sicard | 71 | 80 | 76 | 76 | 67 | |  Formolo | 72 | 79 | 80 | 76 | 71 |
Phinney is the best climb on the list and also the best finisher while Herklotz is the punchier of the two and the strongest in the race in that skillset. Given the race will be decided in the short final uphill, punchy skills might be important. If this is the case Formolo is the only one who can come close to Herklotz. But he is the weakest climber on the list. Other than the big two, Madrazo is the best climber but he is a one-speed climber at this point in his career and the race features about 170k of mostly flat before the finale, which also doesn’t play to his strengths. Among the other top climbers Padun is strongest in the hills and has a good finishing kick. Another rider with a more balanced skill set is Novak. Cattaneo is the most one-dimensional climber among the favorites, he will have to rely on his ability to suffer to resist the hard accelerations of the others.
Enough about the climbers, 3 of the 4 stages in the race will go to the sprinters. And with the change in the format the best sprinter should also take home the points jersey and have a shot at a few days in the leader’s jersey. As a result, the race has also attracted some top sprinters ahead of a deep field:
| | FL | RS | SP | AC | |  | Ewan | 75 | 71 | 83 | 81 | | Gaviria | 76 | 76 | 83 | 84 |  | Ahlstrand | 74 | 73 | 83 | 82 | | Van Poppel | 72 | 71 | 81 | 78 | |  Zabel | 74 | 70 | 81 | 79 |  | Vesely | 73 | 68 | 81 | 80 |  |  Kennaugh | 76 | 70 | 81 | 80 |  |  Liu | 74 | 69 | 80 | 80 | | Swift | 70 | 64 | 80 | 76 | | Bonifazio | 79 | 75 | 80 | 80 |  |  Bewley | 74 | 70 | 79 | 77 | |  Bol | 76 | 77 | 79 | 77 |  | Riabushenko | 76 | 74 | 79 | 77 | |  Philipsen | 72 | 69 | 79 | 78 | |  Suryadi | 71 | 68 | 79 | 76 | | Minali | 73 | 74 | 79 | 79 | | Lutsyshyn | 70 | 73 | 79 | 80 |
The headliners are Ewan, Gaviria, and Ahlstrand. And they all have a clear advantage over a pack of pretty similar riders behind. Gaviria is the strongest of the three on paper with greater acceleration, flat and resistance skills.
Although they also bring Phinney, Isostar has prioritized their sprint squad with Peak and Rickaert for the lead outs and Sweeny and Andersen to do the chasing. With the race featuring just one significant climb, Isostar have calculated that Phinney can do his thing with minimal support.
Ewan also has a strong lead out with Santos and Baska while Ahlstrand has just Marin. None of the rest of the team appear suitable as a first lead-out rider so Volcanica will be hoping to skate by without one. Volcanica does bring two strong rouleurs for the flat stages in Naud and Bolor-Erdene but the rest of the team is dedicated to supporting Quintana’s GC ambitions.
Outside the top 3 the best allround sprinter is Kennaugh with Vesely just a little weaker. Home team Indosat will hope Suryadi can get some attention in the sprints as they don’t bring an overall contender.
Posting this a day early as not sure I will get a chance tomorrow. So S1 posted in 48 hours.
Startlist
 
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 08-02-2023 04:03
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Awesome write up, thanks Ulrich!
Awesome to have Java doubled in length for this season! Although it’s still only the one mountain stage, with some luck there should be a chance for an outsider to take the KOM which is what we’re aiming for. Kolar has been disappointing this season, so hopefully he can redeem himself here.
Strong sprinting lineup, but not as much depth as I thought there’d be so I didn’t bother bringing Howard (not that it would have made a difference this season). Page is the perennial overperformer and Suryadi the home star - it would be awesome to see them do well in the flat stages.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 08-02-2023 07:24
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15024
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Hoping to sneak in the top 10 with Novak. I have no sprinter.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 08-02-2023 08:15
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Big lineup for us with Gaviria and Phinney, let's gooo!
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| SotD |
Posted on 08-02-2023 09:24
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"Don't you think they miss the times when they used to hang? Before a fan base depended on a single man"
I miss this race 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 19:48
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 08-02-2023 09:34
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After that Vuelta performance, Formolo can take a break here. Obviously, I hope he won't, but I won't be mad if he will.
The sprinters' field looks just as tough as the GC field with those 3 big names so it will be quite hard for Van Poppel to do something notable here.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 08-02-2023 09:52
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Another race not entirely suited to Cattaneo but that's what happens with the bands system. Vesely has three very good opportunities which I hope he takes
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 08-02-2023 10:40
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Hopefully Madrazo can do well here. The long flat stretch isn't great, but I hope the first big climb is selective enough that his low speed won't be too much of an issue in the finale. Top 5 would be good, Top 8 should be the minimum.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 08-02-2023 14:09
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Same expectation as with every Penasa race this season, to try to sneak into the Top 10, while the Top 15 looks more likely. Not too much hopes on Minali because he hasn't done enough to garner it so far this season.
Thanks for the preview Ulrich 
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 08-02-2023 16:38
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Thank you for a great preview UU!
A very strong start list and I'd imagine we'll be very lucky to score any points. Mas has strength but he'll have to outperform his stats for us to score points here.
Here's hoping 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 10-02-2023 07:31
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Meh :/
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 10-02-2023 07:40
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4th is a very good result from Minali!
Congrats to DW and thanks for the report Ulrich
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 10-02-2023 07:47
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Bewley in the mix, so at least he tries! Same goes for Monk and his breakaway appearance, which is our only chance for something here.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 10-02-2023 07:52
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15024
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I still have no sprinter.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 10-02-2023 09:00
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World Champion
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Really thought Van Poppel will get it when he took the lead. Maybe he'll hold on next time!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-02-2023 09:43
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Grand Tour Champion
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Hello? Vesely you up?
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 10-02-2023 12:11
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I love me some Page! He always seems to perform despite never being near the best, a good result in our home race where I certainly didn’t expect one!
Thanks for the report!
Edited by Eden95 on 11-02-2023 11:06
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-02-2023 22:40
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7773
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Well, Vesely's position starts with a 1 
Cattaneo to save this race
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 10-02-2023 23:19
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Nice result for Bewley and another breakaway appearance by Monk. Solid.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 11-02-2023 03:27
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Posts: 4616
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Disappointing this time around, but good to see Page is still on the right at the end. Thanks for the report and congrats on the win!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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