The Lisbon Classic is rated flat but has its fair share of hills across 205km. Two years ago it was won by a puncheur although last year it was a traditional sprinter, Maksimov, taking the win.
The stage favorites are mostly sprinters but the top name is Houle, who can certainly handle the hills.
15 k gone. The front three are Wirtgen, Arvidsson, and Uhiriwe. They have 29 seconds on another 9 riders and 1’43 on the peloton. There have been additional attacks but the peloton has been shutting the down. The 9 chasers are: Sam Potocki Asgreen Skjelmose Jensen Maccagli Debesay Vandevelde Paulus Menicucci.
Two from San Marino in that group. If the groups come together Bralirwa will have 3 of the 12.
109k to go, the 12 leaders have 2’34 on the peloton, their lead having capped out just below 4 minutes. Chasing in the peloton are Hello Fresh (De Vos, Vermaerke), Cedevita (Eriksson), Volcanica (Jurado), Voyagin (Onodera, Rajapakshage), Gjensidige (Hvideberg), Popo (Christapopoulos), OKtal Pharma (Jabuka) and Project Africa (Nzafashwanayo). More than a few spelling challenges in that group. The riders are about to tackle the hilliest part of the course, so far nobody dropped.
54k to ride, the gap is down to 1’29 and the break is in sight. The peloton has split a few times but just 7 riders off the back at this point.
A few k later Menicucci is the first rider dropped from the break, 50% loss for the Sammarinese.
Just under 40k to go and Asgreen attacks the break. Sam and Uhiriwe following. The peloton mostly led by Cedevita and Popo is within a minute of Asgreen.
31k to go, the three attackers have 21 seconds over the other 7 surviving breakaway riders ( Vandevelde dropped) and 1’09 on the peloton. The peloton is still 170 strong but a split with just 28 riders up front was recently closed.
With 28k to go Sam is dropped by the other two frontrunners.
25k to go the peloton is split in 3, the front group with 23 riders is led by Poljanec. The next group is 35 seconds behind and has 94 riders. Another 51 riders are 1’27 down on the 2nd peloton. They look to be out of it, Dzamastagic in that group among a number of lower tier sprinters. Looks like Hello Fresh are focused on Rowe, who is in the first peloton. The two leaders have 1’01 on the first peloton.
22k to go and it is over for most of the breakaway as Prevar leads the catch. He has treid to get a gap a few times but hasn’t been able to. The front two have just 34 seconds now. The peloton is back to 124 riders.
Soon after Asgreen attacks again and drops Uhiriwe.
Over a little hill the most significant splits yet occur. A 29-rider group, led by Arashiro gets a gap with the chase behind split over multiple small groups. We will check the group composition if move this sticks. There are 19k to ride and Asgreen has a 40 second lead.
15k to ride. Asgreen has 28 seconds over the chase group which is now 30 riders as Uhiriwe is caught. The next group is 30 seconds behind. The 30-rider group includes: Coutinho Afewerki, Lecourt De Billot Culey, Wohler Debesay, Uhiriwe Groselj, Katrasnik, McCormick, Poljanec, Siric Enger, Kurianov Rowe Wippert Gladysh, Prevar, Varga Hayakawa Bernas, Kreder, Tarvis Calmejane Ahlstrand, Bolor-Erdene Arashiro, Liu Houle, Tesfaye Heyi
The first chase group includes Bewley and Novardianto and a second chase group at 52 seconds includes some other sprinters like Haller, Kennett, and Bertilsson
McCormick closes down Asgreen with 13k to go. The Bewley group still 37 seconds off the back.
10k to go, Bolor-Erdene goes to the front. The group slowed and has swelled back to 57 riders, not clear if any of those rejoining have much left but they include all the sprinters mentioned. The next group is 1’36 down, so it looks like the winner will come from this group.
6.8k to go, the surviving sprinters lined up behind Bolor-Erdene. The group back down to 34 as many of the sprinters who recently rejoined are dropped including, Bonifazio who was in the second group to rejoin, and Novardianto, Haller, Kennett, and Bertilsson
Under the 5k banner, Katrasnik attacks, Bernas and Varga trying to go with him.
3k the three attackers have 20 seconds, Culey and Arashiro chasing in the peloton. The peloton has swelled to 55 as most of the riders mentioned earlier have rejoined but seems unlikely they will be able to play a role in the finale.
1.8k still a 20 second lead for the three attackers, Katrasnik doing all the work. Culey can’t close now Lecourt De Billot has brought Afwerki to the front, looks like the sprinters will have to go long.
1k banner for the leaders, their lead up to 27 seconds as the sprinters are reluctant to launch. Afwerki now on the front with Ahlstrand, Enger, Liu, Coutinho, Rowe, Houle, Hayakawa, Wippert, and Bewley behind.
Katrasnik hesitates about leading out the others and Bernas launches his sprint, Katrasnik immediately responds.
500 meters. Varga edges ahead of Bernas. Afwerki and Ahlstrand are 10 seconds behind now.
Varga with a clear lead and just 300 meters to go. The sprinters across the road behind are Ahlstrand, Afwerki, Enger, Coutinho, Liu and Rowe.
Popo4ever have had a tough season so far but Peter Varga pulls off a great win in the Lisbon Classic, piggybacking on Katrasnik’s attack and then holding off the sprinters. Behind the other 2 attackers are being overwhelmed by the sprinters.
Ahlstrand is best of the sprinters although 2nd best in the race. Liu completes the podium.
Afwerki, Enger, and Rowe take 4th to 6th.
Hayakawa edges Houle for 7th. Bernas gets 9th. Katrasnik originated the decisive move but he settles for 11th behind Coutinho.
Lisbon Classic 
