We're back for day number four of Paris - Nice! It's one of the stages where we expect to get some time gaps among the GC favorites - although it's obviously not the hardest stage of the race. But a tough uphill finish will punish those who don't get a good position at the foot of the final climb - let's hope the climbers and puncheurs have learnt their lessons from some sprinters' mistakes in the last two days...
We continue our journey to small communes, with today's start line being in Maurs. It' still a bit bigger than yesterday's start and arrival locations though, having about 2,000 inhabitants. One particularity is its almost perfectly round shape, which is defined by the commune's ramparts - yes, it indeed was a pretty important location in the Middle Age, which was subject to a rivalry between multiple seigneurs.
But today its cycling that reigns, although not for a long time, as the riders will soon be gone, heading East for most of the day. We have a total of 4 KoM sprints on the road, plus a first Cat 1 climb leading to the finish line.
The first of those KoM sprints will be the Côte de Montsalvy, after 40 kilometers, worth 10 points for the first on top (2nd category). We then have two 3rd category climbs, the Côte de Lassouts after 96km, and the Côte de la Crouzette after 112km, with in between an intermediate sprint in Saint-Geniez-d'Olt. It's today's sole intermediate sprint.
After the second Cat. 3 climb, there's an almost 50km false flat, before we hit the final double-climb. First the riders will tackle de Côte de Chabrits, culminating just 9km away from the finish line, and then - after a short descent - they will head up to Mende, the first Cat. 1 climb of the race - and a tough one, although not too long. More on that later.
But who are the favorites? Without much surprise, the pure puncheurs don't get much love from the bookies. Instead, they prefer strong climbers - and even more strong climbers AND puncheurs - with Formolo topping their list today. Meintjes and Morton get three stars as well, while local hero Lecuisinier only gets two - maybe to not put too much pressure on him. Dombrowski and Sosa with two stars as well. The list is complemented by Olivier, Madrazo and Ukrainian double-threat Padun and Prevar.
Let's see if they indeed have our future winner - and likely new leader - on their list, or if someone else upsets those favorites!
Clearly it's the "Race to the Sun", because we haven't really reached it yet. Let's see if we find the sun at the finish line, or if we need to go all the way to Nice for that!
Some riders look to be very eager to get the stage started - with 48 KoM points on offer, this isn't surprising! But actually all standings could - and probably will - see quite some movement today!
However, today it takes three kilometers until we see the first attacks! But now we have Sweeny and Dekker trying to break away over a minor hilltop - the latter already has 4 KoM points, so his goal for today is clear!
Van Poucke is the next to ride away from the pack, and that car in front of him is clearly helping him to bridge the gap quickly!
However, as the race directors got the tech car removed, Van Poucke lost that slipstream and was unable to catch up with the leading duo. And as some teams are setting a very high pace in the pack - we mainly see Nur Hasan, Pszczolarski, Kalf and Darbinyan working - the Belgian's adventure is soon over.
But we have lots of small hills today, which represent prefect launchpads for attacks - trying next are Primozic and Narvaez.
Despite continued furious chasing behind, they make it to the front group - which however has just about 30" on the pack. And Sweeny is looking really tired already.
Indeed, Sweeny is dropped soon after and quickly reeled back in by the peloton. Dekker can't keep up anymore either, but saves some meters ahead of the pack over the next hilltop. When will the pace finally relent a bit?
Not yet, that's for sure. Dekker has been caught, then we had an attack from Neuman - who's still ahead of the pack, right in front of the yellow car. Cemazar tried to do the same, but was quickly caught again by Kalf.
And the latest attacker now is Bagioli, who only has a few meters. By the way, the riders already are on the first climb of the day, the Côte de Montsalvy - 3.7km long, with an average gradient of 7%!
While Narvaez and Primozic already are on the final meters of the climb, battling it out for the first 10 points of the stage and therefore the provisional KoM lead, Bagioli has joined Neuman. Lastra is our most recent attacker, but clearly won't be able to bridge the gap before reaching the top.
Narvaez gets those points, outsprinting Primozic. Behind, Bagioli does the same with Neuman. So the full points are:
The pack has finally decided to no longer insist, so the gap is up to 2 minutes to the leading duo once they cross the KoM line.
While Bagioli and Neuman quickly caught up with the leaders after the KoM sprint, it took the entire descent for Lastra to get there as well. But now, we have our BotD in full strength!
Narvaez is the best pure puncheur and the fastest sprinter, but Neuman is almost as strong on the hills and has better acceleration. Both are lacking some skills on the longer climbs, though.
Lastra and Primozic are some well-rounded riders, while Bagioli is again a pure puncheur and a capable sprinter. Still, Narvaez and Neuman would probably be the favorites for the stage win - but that all depends on energy left, and of course on the peloton's willingness to give it away.
The pack is riding up the valley approaching the next KoM climb, stabilizing the gap at about 2'30". Riders participating in the chase are Pszczolarski, Nur Hasan, Rodenberg, Silvestre, Aniolkowski, Garcia Cortina, Riabushenko, Darbinyan and Kalf. No trace of Coquard's team; they don't seem to trust their sprinter to be able to defend the GC lead today. Unsurprisingly, to be honest.
The leaders are at the foot of the Côte de Lassouts, which is 8km long, but divided into two sections with even a short downhill in between. So we have an average gradient of less than 4%, with the final two kilometers being almost flat.
But despite the flat roads, it's not the best sprinter who takes the points up here. Instead, Neuman wins the KoM sprint ahead of Primozic and Bagioli:
Which means that Primozic is the new virtual KoM leader ahead of Narvaez and Neuman, both totalling 10 points. The pack trails by less than 2 minutes now!
But the breakaway easily makes it to the sprint in Saint-Geniez-d'Olt. Bagioli takes maximum points and bonus seconds and gets within 3" of the U25 lead (obviously without taking into account the breakaway's advantage on the road).
With all the sprinting involved lately, the peloton has again lost some ground and trails by 2'13".
The Côte de la Crouzette is pretty short with just 1.9km and the last 600m being flat, so Primozic goes all-in to finally win something after three 2nd places in a row. Neuman immediately sits up and is dropped!
Going first rarely is the recipe for success, and so Primozic doesn't even gain a single point. Instead, we have the following result:
The first two are now joint leaders in the virtual KoM standings - but with 16 points on offer for the stage winner, they know that they need some more points on the Cat. 2 climb just before the final hill to definitely claim the jersey tonight - not an easy job for sure!
Furthermore, the pack is pushing hard again, reducing their deficit to less than 2 minutes on that climb. Lo Cicero is the first rider to be dropped at the back of the pack.
Primozic actually lost touch on the final meters of that last KoM and hasn't been able to reconnect to the leaders. He's caught by the pack, which is only trailing the front group by 48" now. And still almost 20km of false flat to go until we reach the foot of the next climb...
You can see a more detailed profile of the final 50 kilometers or so - it's a steady rise now, followed by the two late climbs. Clearly no chance for the escapees today!?!
And with a bit more than 20km to go - and almost 10km to the next climb - the break is caught. Which probably means that one of the big stage favorites is going to claim the KoM jersey tonight!
Fast-forward to the foot of the Côte de Chabrits. Almost 3km long, 6.4% average gradient - not extremely hard, but given that the final climb starts immediately after a short descent from this hill, you better be positioned well now!
And that seems to be indeed the motto of most serious GC contenders. Lecuisinier is there, and we can spot Morton, Padun, Formolo, Barguil, Bernal, Madrazo, Dombrowski, Carthy, Sosa, Olivier or Meintjes all in the Top30 of the pack.
Pluchkin, Warchol, Kirsch or Pinot are a bit further back, while Inkelaar seems to have so little confidence on hilly stages that he's not even in the first half!
After Hänninen and Tolhoek set the pace - a solid yet not a very fast one - on the entire climb, Sosa makes a late surge and actually attacks over the top! Before we look at how this situation evolves, let's tick off the KoM points:
Sosa indeed gets a small gap, but Hänninen has got enough power left to bring him back. However, the pace stays high on the downhill, given that everyone wants to have the best position going into the final climb!
And here we go! The riders can actually already see the red kite marking the final kilometer, but there's quite some work left to do to get there - and even more to finish the stage! 4.1km at an average slope of 7.9% - but we have more than 1km above 10%! Clearly those who don't have the legs will suffer today!
3km to go, and it's again Tolhoek leading the peloton, this time ahead of Elosegui, Knox and Majka. Prevar and Padun are doing their own thing - beware of that duo!
Behind Majka, we have Sosa with his helper Phodingam, with Carthy, Olivier, Formolo, Madrazo and Morton nearby. Lecuisinier and Bernal somehow weren't quite attentive enough, having dropped outside the first 20 positions - clearly not a good situation for them! Pluchkin, Barguil and Dombrowski are in the same region, though.
Chiarello is just a bit further down the road, while Warchol, Pinot and Inkelaar clearly have to hurry up if they don't want to lose contact!
Sosa then kicks again with 2.3km left! He already showed his muscles on top of the previous hill, and this move here is really serious now! Meintjes, Formolo and Olivier are attentive and are trying to latch on, while Prevar and Padun are still doing their own thing.
Madrazo, Kirsch and Morton are two rows further back, while Lecuisinier, Bernal, Dombrowski, Barguil and Pluchkin have to make up even more ground! Chiarello has almost closed the gap to these guys, while Warchol, Inkelaar and Pinot still are pretty far away.
Still two kilometers, but Sosa is already giving it all he has! Meintjes and Formolo are still following him, but Padun has now squeezed in between the Italian and Olivier. Williams and Sergis are leading the rest of the pack, while the other GC favorites aren't looking to worried yet.
Padun has cracked with 1,500m left, thereby opening a gap between the three leaders Sosa, Meintjes, Formolo and the rest of the pack led by Olivier!
Sergis is still looking strong, but his captain Lecuisinier clearly is too far away from his wheel. Dombrowski, Barguil, Bernal, Morton, Chiarello or Pluchkin still are back there as well, while Kirsch, Madrazo or Carthy have a slightly better position - as well as Padun, if he can recover a bit!
Sosa is incredibly strong today, as he now seems to ride away from Meintjes and Formolo!
Olivier is looking good as well, with Kirsch, Padun and Madrazo in the next line - the Ukranian indeed seems to have played it well, not pushing too hard early on.
We then have a really strong Guerreiro and Prevar, alongside the cycleYorkshire trio of Williams, Carthy and Morton. Lecuisinier has finally gained a couple of positions as well, but it looks like he's accelerating too late to fight for the stage win. The same obviously holds for Bernal and Dombrowski who are with him (alongside the Frenchman's helpers Sergis and Lehtinen).
Chiarello, Pluchkin and Roglic are the next GC contenders on the road, as Warchol has almost caught up with them! Pinot and Inkelaar are further behind.
500m to go, and Sosa is clearly looking the strongest out there. Meintjes and Formolo are desperately fighting to keep up, while Olivier can't really close the gap further back.
Madrazo, Padun and Kirsch still are the next chasers, with Carthy and Morton just behind having sandwiched Guerreiro.
No question who was the strongest today: Ivan Sosa! He took the lead with 2.3km to go, and just powered up the Croix Neuve climb - congratulations on an amazing win in Mende!
Louis Meintjes and Davide Formolo were the only ones being able to more or less keep up with the Colombian, taking 2nd and 3rd today! Now let's wait to see if the timekeepers actually award some gaps - but as we haven't seen the top sprinters in the front positions, we can almost be sure to have a new race leader tonight!
Daan Olivier cracked a bit in the end, but still salvages 5th plalce - outsprinted only by a really strong Lachlan Morton! This group gets an 18" deficit to the podium riders, so the new race leader definitely will be one of the trio up front!
Ruben Guerreiro had an amazing day, keeping up with the best climbers and puncheurs on this stage and finishing 6th!
Angel Madrazo then is the strongest of the top GC favorites, ahead of Alex Kirsch, Oleksandr Prevar and a late surging Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier.
Despite cracking badly on the final meters, Padun finishes in the same group, just like Carthy, Dombrowski and Bernal.
And the next three riders are lucky as well, as the timekeepers judge that they were close enough to get the same time. Here we have Barguil, Carboni and Lehtinen.
Tough luck then for Chiarello, who was just some meters further behind, but gets a 41" gap. Of the GC favorites, Roglic, Warchol and Pinot finish in this group as well.
But the worst of the GC favorites clearly was Inkelaar. He was completely out of position going into the final couple of kilometers, and never was able to come back. His deficit on hilly terrain definitely hurt him today, losing 2'01" and probably any hope for a big result.
By the way, most top sprinters - including the famous "Top 3" - finished in this same group...
But let's stop talking about the losers, and rather acclaim the winner! Ivan Sosa was simply the best today, being the first - and only one - to attack on the final climb, and just pull it through! Congratulations!
Louis Meintjes and Davide Formolo did a great job to follow them, proving the bookmakers right that riders with great skills on mountains AND hills would do great today!
As expected, today's stage had a major impact on the GC - and the stage Top 3 are also the GC Top 3 now! However, thanks to a great prologue and the 2nd place bonus seconds today, it's Louis Meintjes who takes over the yellow jersey, leading 3" ahead of stage winner Ivan Sosa and 9" ahead of Davide Formolo.
It's clearly an interesting GC now, given that the three leaders aren't among the very best climbers in the race. Those now have to make up about half a minute, with Madrazo in 4th being 29" down, Lecuisinier 30", Dombrowski 37" and Morton 38". So we can expect some fireworks on stage 6 especially!
The only jersey that doesn't change shoulders is the green one. Salem Kemboi's two-point advantage on Bryan Coquard still holds, but will surely be challenged tomorrow! Caleb Ewan and Emerson Santos still share 3rd place.
We then again have Ivan Sosa on stage, as he takes over the KoM jersey with a commanding 10-point lead! He picked up 24 points on the last two climbs, and therefore leads ahead of Andrea Bagioli and Jhonatan Narvaez. There are still enough chances for the chasers to get that jersey, though!
And as all good things come in threes, Ivan Sosa is back on the podium once more! He was one of the favorites for a podium spot in the U25 standings, and he now even has a 28" lead over Egan Bernal! Petr Rikunov is doing well, too, being 50" back.
Inkelaar, one of the pre-race favorites for a good result, is only 19th currently, more than 2 minutes down...
We have a second classification besides the points one (yet no jersey) that still has the same leader: De Stijl Cycling were the strongest team today and therefore extend their lead, to 36" over Team Popo4Ever and 44" over cycleYorkshire. Let's see if they can defend that lead on the big mountain stage in two days!
That's it from an exciting hilly stage that just finished here in Mende! The GC has taken quite a different shape - let's see how it will look like after the big mountain stage 6! But first, the sprinters will get their 3rd and final chance tomorrow - stay tuned!
Paris - Nice 
