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Tour of California - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 03-01-2022 23:51
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Reports will come from me but thanks to Cunego for stepping to to do the preview below.
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 Tour of California
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Preview
After years in higher categories, the Tour of California has dropped down to C2. Hence, we won’t have a big name winner such as Adam Yates, Aleksandr Pluchkin or Silvio Herklotz the previous three years, but there are still some great riders on the startlist.
The profile is about as varied as it gets. We have a prologue and a time trial combining for just over 33 kilometers, we have a big mountain top finish and two intense hilly stages, and last but not least there are two flat stages for the sprinters. Lots of opportunities for different rider types to show themselves, but let’s look at the GC contenders first.
| MO | HI | TT | RS | AC | PR |  Amador | 80 | 71 | 74 | 68 | 66 | 73 |  Mas | 78 | 77 | 68 | 74 | 77 | 68 |  Aru | 78 | 74 | 64 | 75 | 70 | 64 |  Martin | 78 | 73 | 69 | 72 | 70 | 67 | | Brenes | 78 | 72 | 68 | 78 | 68 | 68 |  Elissonde | 78 | 73 | 63 | 77 | 66 | 63 | | Borisavljevic | 77 | 73 | 74 | 74 | 65 | 74 | | Ratiy | 79 | 69 | 73 | 72 | 57 | 73 | | Diaz | 78 | 70 | 72 | 73 | 68 | 72 |  Costagli | 78 | 70 | 69 | 70 | 66 | 69 | | Potocki | 77 | 72 | 70 | 71 | 64 | 70 |  Henao | 76 | 76 | 66 | 73 | 70 | 64 |  Sakalou | 76 | 75 | 65 | 72 | 72 | 65 | | Barta | 76 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 67 | 75 |
It’s a bit tough to project the top favorites, since we don’t quite know yet which part of the race will have what kind of an impact – for example, how selective the hill stages will be. If we’re expecting a prototypical “old school” stage racer to win, Amador has to be the favorite. He’s the best climber of the peloton and as good a time trialist as any of his rivals. He has that weakness in the hills though and also has the lowest resistance and sub-par acceleration, so it’s not as straightforward as it may seem.
If you’re looking for a more well-rounded rider, there’s no way past Mas. He’s the strongest puncheur among the top climbers with good resistance and acceleration, although he’s not the greatest time trialist. Aru has similar strengths and weaknesses, but the strengths are less and the weaknesses, especially in TT, more pronounced.
Martin, Brenes and Elissonde are similar riders, who are decent but not great on hilly terrain, but good climbers with solid to good resistance, though not great in time trials.
On the contrary, Aramco’s second leader Borisavljevic will rely on his time trialing skills to set him up for a good result. He’s the worst climber among the top favorites, and he might be relegated to the role of a luxury domestique, otherwise he might have been even higher on the list, but he has no obvious weakness other than underwhelming acceleration and could be a force to be reckoned with.
Ratiy, Diaz and Costagli are sort of “ Amador light”: Elite (in this context) climbers with average to above average time trialing, but severe weaknesses on hills and in the resistance and acceleration department compared to others on the list.
Potocki is more in the vein of Borisavljevic with decent but not great climbing and some advantages in the TT, but more than anything, his inclusion here signifies Hello Fresh’s depth as the only team with three riders among the top GC riders.
Towards the bottom, we have lower-tier team leaders with Henao, who will try to make something of his good puncheur skills, as will Sakalou, while his teammate Barta hopes for a good result in the time trials. The American is also the runaway favorite for the white jersey.
| Puncheurs | MO | HI | AC | RS | Time Trialists | FL | TT | PR | RS |  Boswell | 71 | 80 | 76 | 73 |  Campenaerts | 71 | 78 | 78 | 73 | | Vogt | 62 | 80 | 63 | 71 | Cruz | 75 | 78 | 78 | 72 | | Mas | 78 | 77 | 77 | 74 | Downey | 73 | 77 | 77 | 74 | | Paez | 72 | 77 | 76 | 70 | Van Winden | 71 | 77 | 77 | 65 | | Dieteren | 70 | 77 | 66 | 70 |  Ligthart | 71 | 77 | 77 | 64 | | Lavery | 71 | 76 | 77 | 71 | Craddock | 71 | 76 | 76 | 75 | | Ludvigsson | 63 | 76 | 76 | 70 | Cheyne | 73 | 76 | 75 | 75 | | Haas | 65 | 76 | 73 | 72 | Rosas | 72 | 75 | 76 | 70 | | Scheit | 72 | 76 | 71 | 71 | Keough | 73 | 58 | 80 | 73 | | Lietaer | 67 | 76 | 71 | 71 | Stash | 73 | 67 | 78 | 73 | | Henao | 76 | 76 | 70 | 73 | Vingerling | 71 | 65 | 76 | 66 |
With two hilly stages and two time trials, there are plenty of opportunities for riders who may not fancy their chances in the GC, but could be looking for a stage win. Boswell stand out among the puncheurs, no one can match his blend of hill, acceleration and resistance. Vogt is a comparable pure puncheur but is sorely lacking in those other categories. Mas is the the best climber/GC rider of the bunch, and just like for the GC, Aramco has a secondary option for the hills in Paez.
On the time trialing side, Campenaerts and Cruz are the top favorites for the longer time trial, while Keough and Stash look particularly at the prologue. At 8 kilometers, that one might be too long for the McCormick rider, however, we also see him on the next list …
| FL | SP | AC | RS | | FL | SP | AC | RS | | Vanderbiest | 73 | 81 | 75 | 67 | Ranneries | 69 | 77 | 80 | 63 | | Keough | 73 | 79 | 79 | 73 | Barbier | 75 | 77 | 79 | 71 | | Vingerling | 71 | 79 | 79 | 66 | Prasad | 74 | 77 | 79 | 74 | | Abdul Halil | 68 | 79 | 77 | 66 |  Bogdanovics | 73 | 78 | 77 | 69 |
… as one of the top sprinters. Vanderbiest is the fastest on pure speed, but with his proven combination of good flat and resistance stats complementing his well-rounded sprint stats, Keough is certainly a good bet as well. Behind those two, the field is actually not that deep. Vingerling and Abdul Halil are the only ones who can match them in terms of speed, the others have to rely on high acceleration and/or backup stats to do something.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-01-2022 01:01
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So glad to not be here where we always underperform horribly apart from our first time  Hope it stays as a CT race so I can avoid it again next year  Will enjoy following it though, nice preview cunego and I'm sure the reports will be very entertaining as usual Ulrich 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| MacC |
Posted on 04-01-2022 09:10
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Thanks Ulrich, nice preview.
Glanbia will have to shake themselves awake after a month out of the saddle, (they promise me they've been training).
It's a mixed bag and the Mountain Stage comes very early. We need Dan Martin to score a high finish that day with hopefully the pure climbers doing real damage to the punchers and others.
I'm a bit worried looking at the start list that the AI might treat Craddock as leader. I'd prefer to see him attack for stages.
We've two strong Time Triallers so will be looking for them to get a stage. We've seen Amador underperform in similar company but he still seems favourite.
A lot of good climbers here so really hard to predict.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 04-01-2022 09:27
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Haga's GC ambitions depend on how he will survive the mountain stage, otherwise we're forced to come here for stage hunting
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 04-01-2022 09:44
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Aah, seeing the field i regret not going here this year. I think we might have had a shot at getting a great result here.
Either way, great preview and good luck everybody
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 04-01-2022 11:27
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Thanks cunego for the extended preview!
Looking forward to the fight for GC From our point of view, we hope to snatch a stage victory in sprint or time trial.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 04-01-2022 11:43
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A race for us that is going to be pretty defining for how the AI handles the rest of our Stage Races for the rest of the season, with the full trifork being here. Don't expect a GC win or anything but a couple of top 10s would be nice!
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 04-01-2022 11:53
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Expect McNulty to womp Barta...AGAIN
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 04-01-2022 12:01
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Would love a big result here from Mas and/or Borisavljevic but will be interesting to see how the game works the AI between the 2. On paper they’re a great duo!
Thank you for a comprehensive preview cunego and looking forward to the reports from Ulrich!
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 04-01-2022 12:52
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Directeur Sportif
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Sending Boswell here was my most creative (mistaken?) piece of planning. Wanted to have a GC leader as it is a US race. All the hills and TT KM really don't suit Kuss and I don't think the MT stage is that hard. So thought Boswell might be able to hang in on S2 and the TT and do some damage in the hilly stages. Concerned that AI doesn't always race hilly stages in a GC race hard though.
Looking forward to seeing if McNulty can keep his run of luck going. Then there is the question of whether Keough feels like sprinting or not.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 04-01-2022 23:53
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Borisavljevic finishing a second ahead of Mas 
Not good from Milos but Mas not losing too much time to the likes of Amador is good.
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| MacC |
Posted on 05-01-2022 08:13
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3 in the top 7 but you'd swap it all for a 1st!
You know I think Ulrich (thx for report too) has a point, I don't think the best climber will come out on top, definitely more an all-round effort. If I were in control I'd probably tell Dan Martin to protect Craddock tomorrow to minimise losses, he should gain on most other GC hopes in the TT and then try to hang on in the hills.
It's tough to know what's best though...
Well done to Tajford...
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 05-01-2022 09:23
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Thanks for the preview cunego and the report Ulrich.
As well as supporting Arndt and Nerz, old timer Costagli is our C2 leader. Will be interesting to see if he can overcome his weaknesses. 1 minute down after stage 1 is not a great start.
All rounders Helme, Dulanjana and Kasa might manage depth points.
Breakaway rider Dieteren has done a great job loosing time on stage 1
Congrats for the win Bjartne.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 05-01-2022 09:31
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Ranking points from Cheyne and a good start from Haga, at least taking this race as C2 wasn't a mistake
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 05-01-2022 09:45
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Didn't expect Vandousselaere in front of Campenaerts
But I will take the result!
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 05-01-2022 19:36
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All that i can hope for is that Eddie Stobart have a fight  |
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 05-01-2022 22:52
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Wild to have two teams take up 6 of the Top 7 spots, I don't think I've ever seen that before. And Tatarinov really is having himself a nice couple of weeks. But good on Amador for taking the win!
Cool stage in general I think, ended up quite selective despite the somwhat large peloton with 5km to go. Very nice report, too, entertaining to follow even as a neutral observer.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 05-01-2022 22:56
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Not happy with Mas there. He should really be pushing for a Top 3 on that stage, especially with the work Paez was doing earlier on. He also had Borisavljevic who could have helped but clearly failed to do so. Will need a big stage in the hills from him to recover this.
Thanks for the report which was very interesting to follow. Strange AI favouring a few teams there as pointed out with the Top 6. But nice to see the top favourite winning!
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 05-01-2022 23:20
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Yes, finally Amador gets his victory! Don’t know what the hell is up with Brenes though - he’s so much better than that.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 05-01-2022 23:32
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Thanks for the report! Pretty good stage for us, excited to see how the team will handle the hills, this tage was definetely favourable AI for us here!
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