The final stage is here and with it we’re looking at the GC decision. Here are all riders who have gained bonus seconds so far and also have at least 72 hill (cutoff chosen because that’s where GC leader Gaviria is at):
1
Fernando Gaviria
Isostar - Specialized
8h38'46
3
Peter Sagan
Moser - Sygic
+ 3
5
Nick Van der Lijke
EA Vesuvio
+ 10
7
Arnaud Demare
Team Puma - SAP
+ 16
11
Eduard Grosu
Huski Chocolate
+ 20
14
Sean De Bie
Aegon - Peroni
+ 24
16
Yevgeniy Gidich
King Power
+ 27
Everyone else is at + 28. While it’s not impossible that another sprinter could hang on until the finish line, see Degenkolb last year, it feels unlikely that they would have the energy left to accumulate the bonus seconds they would need to overtake Gaviria or Sagan. But we might be surprised, who knows?
In addition to the GC, the mountain classification is also wide open. While on paper, Culey’s 22 points are nothing to sneeze at, there are 54 total mountain points available, 42 of which from the hills in the first half of the race that will almost certainly go to the breakaway. But it still takes some time before the first guys attack. Menten kicks it off, Senyenov is next - will the peloton be more lenient today?
It doesn’t look like it at first. van den Berg and Debesay try to get away, but Peak immediately kicks into gear and goes after them.
All four early attackers are caught, and after a lengthy back and forth between attacking riders and chasing domestiques that I will spare you the details of, we’re left with, you guessed it, a duo up front. That duo includes Culey, who really wants to defend his polkadots jersey, and Ringheim, but the Norwegian already falls behind at the first mountain sprint. Not a good sign for things to come, and a surprise given he’s on paper the better climber/puncheur.
Ringheim briefly gets back before the following climb, but same picture there - Culey pulls away and takes maximum points.
Prepare to see this image a few more times: Third KoM sprint to Culey, this time Ringheim never made contact in the first place. The leader has four minutes on the pack, where the remaining points went to domestiques twice ( Peak and Gunnlaugsson) and once to Erdenesuren, who tries to hold on to his second place in the KoM classification. He’s at 20 points now compared to 12 by Ringheim, though the latter is in line to collect 16 more from the next four climbs.
Or maybe even more? Ringheim made it back to the front on the longer flat stretch between KoM sprints 3 and 4 and even was able to briefly counter Culey’s attack - but just briefly.
I told you to expect this image a few more times, did I not? The conditions are pretty uncomfortable for the riders here, which does not make this endeavor any easier for our leaders.
Look at that! Ringheim actually managed to keep it close for KoM sprint number 6, but was still just barely beaten at the line. Culey’s mountain classification win has obviously long been secured either way.
Culey makes it seven for seven, leaving Ringheim no chance. But the Grieg rider will console himself knowing he’s fairly secure in second place. In the peloton, Peak crosses the summit first for the fourth time, which actually gives him a good chance to bag a few points from the classification as well. The gap that was once a bit over 5 minutes wide is now down to around 4.
Curiously, the two leaders actually contest the first intermediate sprint and Ringheim finally gets the better of Culey. More interesting though is the question of whether we see some action for the remaining bonus second behind them. We should, right?
Well … sort of? Degenkolb is the only one to care and he takes the one bonus second unopposed. This lifts him past Demare, who he was tied with, to 7th place.
We also see a few early splits in the peloton. Farfetch is quick to close this one, Kemboi is actually really far at the back of the pack so he would do good to move up sooner rather than later. Other interesting names in this second half include Ulissi, Gerts, and Houle, though this specific split would not last.
Ringheim and Culey just barely make it to the second intermediate sprint before being caught by the peloton, from which it’s again Degenkolb who takes the final bonus second. These could come in handy for him in the end.
But first, he needs to make it to the line with the first group. Here’s what the final 35 kilometers look like. The two classified climbs provide the biggest hurdles, but the final small but steep hill towards the end could also be an opportunity for a late attack.
Heading towards the first of the two KoM sprints, Festina, Minions and cycleYorkshire are in control of the peloton. Sagan is already very close to the front, as is Demare next to Bellis, McCarthy and Hagen. Gaviria remains a bit more sheltered, following Van der Lijke alongside De Bie.
No one particularly cares about the mountain points. Farantakis crosses the line first, interestingly ahead of Coquard. Either the French sprinter wants to be really careful with splits, or Festina is all in for Koretzky today. Demare is in 3rd position, Sagan in 5th behind Schönberger.
First Farantakis and now Pons and Bellis set a high pace up the final KoM climb and we see a split after the first 49 riders, a split that looks much more likely to remain permanent! Turgis and Houle are the most important names in terms of today’s stage that have fallen behind, as have top sprinters Eislers and Kemboi. Cullaigh can be seen in white at the very end of this first group, he’s not going to hold on for much longer.
Bellis and Duchesne lead the main group over the summit ahead of Hagen, Demare, De Bie, Sagan and Van der Lijke. The top favorites are in position, but we have yet to see a proper attack.
A group of 38 heads into the final difficulties entering the last 10 kilometers. Some of the top pure sprinters are still in here, including Vesely, Degenkolb, Grosu, Hsu and Coquard, surely the puncheurs want to get rid of them?
Finally, we have some action! On the last climb of the day, Hagen attacks! De Bie, Sagan, Waeytens and McCarthy are following closest, Gaviria comes out of the saddle attempting to hold on.
Managing to latch onto those guys are Demare, Lutsenko, Van der Lijke, Koretzky and, surprisingly, Degenkolb, who seems to be feeling excellent today. Mohoric is fighting to catch up, then there’s a small gap.
Hagen holds on to a lead, now De Bie attacks to catch him. Sagan leads the group behind, Mohoric has not made the jump yet. Just 5,5 kilometers to go, all of them flat or even descending.
20 riders remain in the first major chasing group, currently led by Gidich who maybe got word that Mohoric doesn’t have it today? Grosu, Hsu and Coquard are still in here, remaining alert in case this all comes back together, whereas Vesely could not keep up.
Lutsenko digs deep trying to defend Gaviria’s yellow jersey. He brings back De Bie and Hagen is almost back in the fold as well. Mohoric now 28 seconds off the back - with just 4 kilometers left, it looks like it’s down to these 11 riders.
Lutsenko is spent and Hagen still has a small gap heading towards the flamme rouge (note that the red kite is placed mistakenly 1,5 kilometers from the finish)!
Sagan, who’s closest to the yellow jersey at just +3, takes over. The major sprinters, Demare, Degenkolb and Van der Lijke, are all huddled behind Gaviria.
Sagan easily overtakes Hagen with 1,5 kilometers to go. The rest of the group is still following Lutsenko, but they need to react quickly!
Sagan is 8 seconds ahead when Gaviria starts to sprint with 800 meters to go. Degenkolb is in his wheel, Demare is flying to the front on the right followed by Van der Lijke.
Gaviria is still in second place, he needs to overtake Sagan to defend his yellow jersey - the bonus seconds here are as generous as they were on the first two stages. Degenkolb accelerates behind him and he looks mighty quick!
Sagan is cooked, the sprinters are overtaking him! Gaviria still has a small lead over Demare and Degenkolb, but can he hold on? Van der Lijke is now the fastest on the road, none of the other puncheurs will have anything to do with the stage win.
Gaviria remains in the lead with 300 meters to go. It’s still anyone’s stage to win, though.
Final charge to the line …
… and Gaviria hangs on! The stage win cements his overall victory after a stellar three days! Degenkolb finishes second ahead of Demare and Van der Lijke. We’ll have to see where Sagan ends up to know the final GC, but they’re all in the Top 5 for sure.
McCarthy finishes on a strong 5th place, ahead of Koretzky and Waeytens. Neither had any bonus seconds before today, they’ll move up a few spots in the GC.
De Bie and Sagan will be disappointed by finishing 8th and 9th, the latter especially - he falls from 2nd to 5th overall. He took it upon himself to make sure Hagen wouldn’t stay ahead and paid the price. Speaking of, the Minion finishes 10th after a daring escape that he just barely wasn’t able to sustain, while Lutsenko has certainly earned the gratitude of Gaviria and the entire team for setting up this win, even if that meant sacrificing his own ambitions. Isostar also wins the team classification thanks to having two riders in today’s winning group.
Mohoric (bottom left) is swept up by the chasers before the finish line, but King Power still has some reason to celebrate, as Hsu and Gidich finish 1-2 in the young riders classification, as well as in the Top 15 in the GC.
The sprinters in this group were mostly out of energy, although Coquard gets to 16th in the end. But it’s Trakhov that leads them over the line in 12th place, ahead of Zakarin, Barbin and Vakoc.
Looking at the GC, Gaviria wins dominantly, of course. Degenkolb finishes second overall, two seconds - two bonus seconds, one could say - ahead of Van der Lijke. Demare finishes 4th, a decent result, though certainly not at his limit.
Sagan, as mentioned earlier, is 5th now, then McCarthy thanks to his good stage result today. De Bie, Koretzky, Waeytens and Hagen complete the Top 10 ahead of Lutsenko, then follow the remaining top sprinters, namely Coquard, Grosu and Hsu thanks to the bonus seconds they collected on the prior two stages. After them, from 16th onwards, it’s the other riders of today’s second group in some order.
Ronde Van Nederland 
