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Vuelta a Colombia Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 17-12-2021 08:41
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.
 Vuelta a Colombia
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Preview
Welcome to the only PT race on South American soil, the Vuelta a Colombia. A staple of the MGUCI calendar since its inception in 2008, many of the very best climbers in all of cycling have written their names on the list of winners here. A few of them return, but we might very well see a new face on top of the podium. A repeat winner is not in the cards, that much is for certain, as Rein Taaramäe is not competing this year.
The Vuelta a Colombia is perhaps the single stage race on the calendar that values and rewards pure climbing prowess more than any other. No time trials, no hilly stages, just straight up unadulterated climbing. Three of the four mountain stages end with a mountain top finish as well, and none of them with an easy flat road to it either.
The fourth, while having the most total climbing kilometers, might be the least likely to cause big gaps between the favorites due to the long descent towards the finish. That also makes it the most attractive for attackers, and indeed in both previous editions, this stage has been won by a rider from the morning breakaway.
There are also two flat stages in there for the poor sprinters that have drawn the ire of their respective managers and have been sent here to suffer on the long climbs. One of them will be rewarded with one day in yellow as a consolation though, as we start the race on flat roads. But who’s here for the sprints anyway? (Well, some teams are and we’ll get to them, of course.) Let’s see which mountain goats compete for the GC:
| MO | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC |  Lecuisinier | 85 | 75 | 78 | 80 | 79 | 74 |  Dombrowski | 84 | 75 | 80 | 78 | 78 | 75 |  Madrazo | 84 | 75 | 80 | 79 | 80 | 71 |  Kudus | 84 | 77 | 79 | 77 | 79 | 70 |
There’s a pretty clear first tier of contenders who, if everything goes as expected, should compete for the podium spots amongst themselves. Lecuisinier is the single best climber of the peloton here and the main favorite, but it won’t be an easy ride. Dombrowski is the quickest of the four, while 2016 winner Madrazo could make use of his slight advantage in recovery. South African Kudus meanwhile is the best puncheur, which could give him an edge on some of the steepest parts of the climbs.
| MO | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC |  Pluchkin | 83 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 71 |  Wellens | 82 | 75 | 79 | 80 | 76 | 68 |  Haig | 82 | 74 | 76 | 75 | 78 | 73 |  Quintana | 82 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 76 | 66 |
It still feels weird to talk about a Tier One and not have Pluchkin in it, but that’s the reality in the year 2021. While still an excellent climber, his age shows in his physical stats, which clearly lack behind the top favorites. It should be noted though that he won this race twice in 2018 and 2019 (one of only two two-time winners, Amador being the other), so historically, he likes this race for sure.
Wellens might have an argument to be the top rider in this group with his excellent backup stats. But Haig and Quintana are strong riders as well with hardly any weaknesses - though the Australian has the edge on others in terms of acceleration.
| MO | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC |  Oomen | 81 | 75 | 78 | 77 | 78 | 69 |  Eastman | 82 | 71 | 76 | 75 | 76 | 69 |  Galta | 81 | 73 | 78 | 79 | 77 | 66 |  Berhane | 81 | 75 | 77 | 74 | 73 | 68 |  Spilak | 81 | 78 | 74 | 75 | 72 | 68 |  Shikai | 81 | 71 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 66 |  Uran | 80 | 72 | 72 | 78 | 72 | 68 |  Preidler | 80 | 78 | 71 | 77 | 76 | 69 |
The boundaries between tiers are pretty fluid at this point, guys like Oomen or Eastman might feel slighted by this order, but be sure this tiering is just for clarity’s sake. Both of them could have a shot at the Top 5 if contenders ahead of them on paper falter. The same might be true for a rider like Galta with his strong stamina and resistance, but it gets progressively less likely as we continue down the list.
Still, for any rider in this tier, the Top 10 should be the goal, even if at best half of them, in all likelihood, will achieve it. Berhane and Spilak (the third rider in the peloton who has won this race before, in 2015), both lacking behind in resistance and recovery, will try to rely on their puncheur skills when things get uneven, similar to Preidler. Shikai and Uran on the contrary are pure climbers with solid resistance.
| MO | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC |  Arndt | 79 | 76 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 75 |  Denifl | 81 | 73 | 70 | 66 | 71 | 60 | | Bongiorno | 79 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 69 |  Henao Montoya | 80 | 69 | 72 | 76 | 72 | 70 | | Rodrigues | 78 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 77 | 72 |  Pomoshnikov | 79 | 74 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 66 | | Slagter | 78 | 79 | 71 | 73 | 74 | 71 | | Frankiny | 78 | 76 | 72 | 75 | 77 | 75 |  Garby | 79 | 70 | 71 | 76 | 75 | 70 | | Aular | 79 | 71 | 75 | 74 | 75 | 69 | | Karnulin | 78 | 74 | 76 | 75 | 77 | 70 |
These are the guys we would not expect in the Top 10, but who might either contend for later Top 20 spots or who could be dangerous threats from breakaways. As we can see, a few teams come with more than one option, specifically Project: Africa, Binance and Sauber. Karnulin isn’t a leader here, contrary to Arndt or Garby, but he’s been known to get decent performances off of domestique duties. Aular is a lieutenant in his team as well, but he could still get a solid result and he’s also the top favorite for white.
| FL | SP | AC | RS | | FL | SP | AC | RS | | Guardini | 72 | 80 | 82 | 69 | Hayakawa | 73 | 79 | 79 | 68 | | Maksimov | 71 | 80 | 82 | 67 | Lavoine | 72 | 79 | 76 | 62 | | Petit | 76 | 80 | 78 | 72 | Dakteris | 75 | 77 | 77 | 70 | | Stepniak | 72 | 79 | 79 | 70 | Santos | 76 | 78 | 78 | 72 | | Willwohl | 73 | 79 | 78 | 67 | Zariff | 68 | 78 | 78 | 65 | | Hodeg | 72 | 79 | 78 | 74 | Young | 74 | 78 | 77 | 70 |
As I’ve mentioned at the top, there are two sprint stages in this race and accordingly, a few sprinters have travelled here. It’s not a super strong group, but that may open up opportunities for riders who otherwise rarely have a shot at a top result. Guardini, Maksimov and Petit are perhaps the best in terms of pure speed, while Carrefour certainly has the strongest squad in play for Hayakawa. Hodeg and Zariff are the favorites to wear white after stage 1.
| MO | HI | ST | RS | RC | AC | | Aular | 79 | 71 | 75 | 74 | 75 | 69 | | Munoz | 77 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 69 | | Almeida | 76 | 68 | 73 | 75 | 74 | 70 | | Helme | 75 | 74 | 71 | 72 | 74 | 76 |  Zimmermann | 75 | 71 | 77 | 77 | 74 | 69 | | Girdlestone | 75 | 71 | 75 | 72 | 73 | 68 | | Martinez | 75 | 71 | 70 | 72 | 71 | 69 | | Rochas | 75 | 72 | 70 | 69 | 72 | 71 | | Madouas | 74 | 75 | 74 | 72 | 75 | 71 |
A very brief look at the broad field of contenders for the white jersey, although unless there’s a huge upset, there’s really only one: the previously mentioned Aular. But remember, there are points for the Top 8 at the end of the race, so if you have one of these guys on your team, this could be of interest for you.
Finally, here’s the full startlist:
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| Ad Bot |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 17-12-2021 09:01
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Thanks for a detailed preview. We hope to start the race well with a Maksimov top-3, like he did in Portugal earlier. Then Spilak is aiming for a top-10, but realistically a top-15 could even be too hard. Have to hope for a good daily form. Interesting to see Munoz as a possible second in the battle for white. He hasn't been performing superbly so far, so to see him get some redemption on home soil would be nice 
Looking forward to the reports, good luck to everyone!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 17-12-2021 09:19
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The PT teams have no mercy for us small PCT teams here. A top 10 should be doable though. Thanks for the preview!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| SotD |
Posted on 17-12-2021 09:21
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Well despite a huge number of strong climbers I can't accept anything less than a fairly solid win. Dombrowski might have +ACC, but I don't see him as faster as Lecuisinier has +5SPR and +1MO. That should more than even out the difference in a sprint towards the line.
Obviously daily form can play out bad for Lecuisinier, but there are no excuses for this race. We have to win, and we want to claim atleast 2 stagewins, the pointsjersey and top 3 in the KOM along the way too.
We bring a worse backup for Lecuisinier than the competitors, but I reckon Jang, Spanopoulos, Rochas and Kastrantas should be strong enough to keep him out of the wind for a significant amount of each stage.
We considered bringing Farantakis here for the sprints as he would be a decent bet for a couple of top 10s, but decided that it was all for Lecuisinier instead.
Let's get dissapointed!
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 17-12-2021 09:27
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Be kind to T3A, we're bringing a team of entirely un-maxed riders and 7 neo-pros (using the UCI definition of neo-pro) 
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 17-12-2021 09:46
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Uran's only race without a time trial IIRC, and it's PTHC as well. Not expecting much here despite the fact we need results after recent events.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 17-12-2021 09:46
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Here for KoM and maybe some tiny points by Big Tekle
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 17-12-2021 15:07
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Not expecting much here looking at the startlist. Atleast with so many short stages, Shikai's lower Stamina wont be as much of a hinderance.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 17-12-2021 16:40
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That's a really though startlist. I had a win here as a goal, but Dombrowski will have to fight hard even for a podium place.
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| jaxika |
Posted on 17-12-2021 17:31
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First race where Preidler is our GC leader, I dont know what i can hope. He have good helpers, especially Aular, so the team is setted for him. Still, looking at the startlist, the top10 will be a good thing. |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 17-12-2021 17:39
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When one 84mo rider is guaranteed to miss out on the podium, I'm pretty happy to have gone for a breakaway team here, with Vasyliv as kind of a team leader aiming for the lower Top 20 at best.
I do hope this lineup with 7 perfect attackers between 73-75mo actually goes for it from day 1 on to maximize our chances at success.
Even though the mountaintop finishes overshadow the intermediate KoM's, I'd really like to be in contention for the polka-dots with someone, and particularly the final stage looks tailor-made for a breakaway win.
Furthermore, as our only mention of the preview shows, we have two decent young guns in Zimmermann and Madouas who might have the freest roles of the U25 candidates, so let's see where that goes.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 18-12-2021 09:17
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Congrats Minions, I guess you know which sprinter to keep next season 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 18-12-2021 09:39
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Sprint train could have gone worse I suppose. I'd gladly take another fifth place tomorrow
Congratulations to Marco and thanks for the great report to cunego!
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| cio93 |
Posted on 18-12-2021 09:46
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Well that's a very pleasant surprise!
Yikui Niu has been the surprise bag of the team for years now, and he follows up his biggest success in MSR with this right away.
A brilliant strategic approach to the sprint, staying in the slipstream as the total outsider and saving energy until the very end to overtake anyone too ambitious.
Of course, the fact that he even latched onto a sprint train as a 74 sprinter to begin with was an even bigger surprise than his surge past the strugglers.
I'll happily take these 8 points which already see us fulfill half of the goals for this race, which were one surprise stage result and a few promising breakaway attempts. I do hope this doesn't make us complacent in the next days though!
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 18-12-2021 11:41
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Amazing reports cunego59.
Fun to read even with no dog in the fight
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 18-12-2021 16:28
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Hodeg making the most of his only leadership role this season, as all other races are for Vesely or Kalaba with him as leadout sometimes. The homecrowd really pushes him to an extra level 
Our other youngster Bjerg also showing himself in the good light! Really needed a bit of good results after the Pais Vasco/Juarez disaster.
Thanks for the report cunego!
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| quadsas |
Posted on 18-12-2021 18:09
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27 points already, what a successful tour
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 18-12-2021 18:27
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Hope WillWohl tries to sprint next flat stage, he did quite well at Juarez when he wasn't the main sprinter!
Congrats Marco and thanks for the report cunego.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 18-12-2021 20:49
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Many big guns here; hope Madrazo can still podium.
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| knockout |
Posted on 19-12-2021 00:51
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Alvaro who?
Don't think i have ever heard that name before  |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
