Year 5 is a go! The Conglomerate are back with our PCT preview, for the 2021 MG season. This preview was created as a cooperation between AbhishekLFC, Croatia14, jandal and knockout.
This preview consists of four parts:
1. Review of 2021: Last season we posted a similar preview and we want to review some of our statements from last season for a fact check, as well as seeing how our final predictions stacked up against the real rankings.
2. Questions of the season: We discussed several important questions for the season in a Roundtable format where five of us gave our own point of view on certain topics. All questions discussed here are questions relating to the entire division. The number of questions have been reduced from previous editions of this preview though.
3. Terrain battles: Last year’s new section returns to once again feature the top riders in each terrain as a head-to-head-to-head-to-head-... battle to determine the food chain, so to say.
4. The squads in detail: This section consists of two parts:
4a: Grades per terrain: We all tried to rate the strength of each team on each terrain to give an overview about how strong we rate the teams on the terrains. We included points in a "hybrid terrain" category when the team has riders that are stronger on any hybrid terrains than in the specialized races.
4b: Team talking points: We spoke one or more random statements about each of the teams. Sometimes we connected the dots and made sense but mostly we went off on tangents with blabbering monologues.
5. The “expert” predictions: Every predictor tried to predict the final ranking table after we looked intensively at each team. These rankings are fully subjective. Also, we tried to come up with a ranking based on the grades of part four.
Enjoy!
Disclaimer: This time we split the timing of the preview into 3 parts. Today there will be general questions, team talking points will come tomorrow and the rankings the day after tomorrow, the ladder both at 6 PM daily time.
We start off by recalling some of our predictions for the 2020 season (including some quotes), mostly to let you know how seriously you should take us. FYI, we take this very seriously!
What did we predict for the PCT in 2020?
Prediction 1: We picked Buchmann, Wellens, Altur and Manninen as the best trainings for PCT teams last season. Eastman was mentioned but wasn’t an unanimous choice.
Fact: Manninen knocked it out of the park, scoring 1000+ points! Wellens did well to finish 10th. Buchmann and Altur were both in the 30s in the rankings.
Prediction 2: We picked Campari, Andorra and Kraftwerk as the non-promoted teams who looked to be in trouble. Valio’s name was also mentioned. Fablok and Podium Ambition were mentioned as contenders for possible back-to-back relegations!
Fact: Campari relegated without a fight. Andorra rode on Summerhill and the cobbles unit to a narrow survival. Unfortunately, both teams have since disbanded. So did Valio, but they too survived, mainly due to Manninen’s brilliance. Kraftwerk were superb in the Tour of America and nearly reached the promotion zone. Podium Ambition and Fablok, the latter another disband, finished in mid-table.
Prediction 3: We mentioned MOL as the most improved repeating team in the division. Bakkafrost were also mentioned.
Fact: MOL finished 6th and was promoted, but it was Xero (who nobody mentioned) who won the battle of non-relegated PCT teams! Bakkafrost finished 9th, which wasn’t bad but perhaps a couple of places lower than what we or they were expecting.
Prediction 4: We picked out Podium Ambition and Fablok as having the worst season among newly relegated teams in the PCT last season.
Fact: They finished 16th and 17th in the standings, respectively and mostly had a season of obscurity with some bright spots, mainly from Altur and Cataford for the former and Wellens for the latter.
Prediction 5: We once again picked out Gallopin to betray his stats and over-perform. Other names thrown into the hat were Ulissi, Adam Yates, Kittel, Areruya, Moazemi and Dunbar.
Fact: Yates was the best of the lot, but that was expected. He finished 15th in the standings. Gallopin couldn’t quite do as well as we predicted, ending just inside the Top 100. Ulissi, Kittel, Dunbar and Areruya finished in the 50s and 60s. Moazaemi wasn’t as good.
Here we could write a long post explaining what we predicted, but a table says more than a thousand words. Let’s see how we stacked up against the final rankings:
Team
ab
cr
ja
ko
so
1
Farfetch
6
4
2
3
5
2
Repsol
5
2
3
2
4
3
Mapei
1
1
1
1
1
4
Desigual
2
5
8
7
2
5
Xero
11
11
11
10
14
6
MOL
7
12
7
6
9
7
Popo4Ever
3
8
4
4
6
8
Kraftwerk
21
20
20
19
21
9
Bakkafrost
10
6
9
16
12
10
Duolingo
4
10
10
14
8
11
Polar
8
7
5
5
7
12
Valio
15
21
15
22
18
13
Lierse
12
3
6
8
3
14
Minions
13
14
19
18
13
15
Berg
9
17
12
13
11
16
Podium
19
9
14
9
15
17
Fablok
17
15
18
17
20
18
Zalgiris
16
16
16
15
16
19
Swisslion
14
13
13
11
10
20
Andorra
26
26
25
25
26
21
GCN
22
24
23
20
22
22
Aramco
18
19
21
21
17
23
Azteca
24
23
24
24
23
24
Nordstrom
23
22
22
23
24
25
Adastra
20
18
17
12
19
26
Campari
25
25
26
26
25
ab = AbhishekLFC
ja = jandal
cr = Croatia
ko = knockout
so = statistical outcome
Edited by Croatia14 on 26-10-2021 19:56
AbhishekLFC: All promoted teams have done well actually to strengthen but Carlsberg has taken the cake, with especially the signings of Guldhammer and Trentin. Sauber and Philips had some trouble bringing in the big leaders, but all other promoted teams have brought in at least a couple of leading riders to try to cement their place in the PCT. While all of them might not work out as the respective managers would’ve hoped for, one must commend the intent and the strategy that has gone into the team building aspects for those teams. The extra large FA pool did help, but it wasn’t easy for everyone, as I have mentioned already.
knockout: The thing that impresses me the most is the collective quality of the promoted teams. Every single one did a great job putting together some strong pieces to establish themselves in the new division. But I’ve got to agree with Abhishek that Carlsberg looks the strongest. They kept most of their strong depth from their CT team and added two strong leaders for the PCT level. I think they are now strong enough to finish in the single digit spots.
Croatia14: Looking at the team squad you gotta pick Carlsberg with two PT-worthy leaders and good depth. However, they also had a head start with a very good squad. I really like what Nemolito did with Los Pollos Hermanos, a clear focus on long-term leaders (Manninen & Zmorka) and short term safety (Spilak). Also let me mention Bralirwa for combining a PCT.worthy squad with strengthening the regional focus. Also I’m not sure if it was luck, opportunism or skill, but for signing Bobridge at that price you gotta recognize Project Africa. Tryg is my “winner” though, despite paying A LOT they got some huge leaders in Wellens and Skujins that should be a perfect base to build on for a promotion push to PT over the next two years beneath a very young core where apart from those two only three riders are not u25-points eligible (which is insane).
jandal: Easily easily Carlsberg if we’re talking who will finish highest this year - they’ve got a case for being the first back-to-back promoters since Repsol in 2018. I actually think they’ve all done a great job, yes a fair few will go down but that’s because even the teams down there look quite strong - I think (since we’re not doing this question this year) that the top possibly has gotten weaker but the lower and lower-mid table looks a lot better than it did in 2020. As Croatia said Tryg made two great acquisitions and if they are good enough to stay up their future looks very bright indeed with a young regional core. I think Philips have also done a job here.
Which teams are the relegation favourites?
knockout: I think the biggest difference to every other season is that there is hardly any team that is a lock for relegation. In basically every PCT preview I ever wrote, there were between one and three teams where it looked obvious that a team had close to xero chances at survival - teams that needed some sort of miracle to avoid relegation. Teams where all you are debating is whether they finish dead fuck**g last or potentially one or two spots above and where you are searching for positive things to say about the team. This season the thing is totally different - there are no teams where I'd feel confident to say that they will relegate and I can think of a realistic path to survival for every single team. On the other side, this puts more teams than ever in danger of dropping down to CT with a bad run of results at some point - including many teams I thought looked secure when I saw their transfer announcements during transfers. Two of the most at risk teams are Jura - Fiat and Indooosat OoooredoooO who both rely strongly on the scoring of their highest earning leader and I’m not entirely convinced that they are strong enough to carry enough of their team on their back.
Croatia14: This is a tough question. Generalizing the question I’d say that hill-dependent teams are in trouble, cause there is so much competition even for great leaders while the field in other terrains looks less stacked. However, it is incredibly tight, and both planning and depth might play a huge factor in this year. Kraftwerk f.e. might have the weakest leaders of the whole division, but their depth bails them out basically every year. It feels like no 2021 team would’ve relegated 2020. Going by my puncheur thesis, I think that Eurosport, Cedevita and Philips might be in trouble. I fear Carrefour, Binance and Jura-Fiat may have some trouble due to hill constraints, but I can see some surprise relegations and almost every team needs to watch its backs this year. Podium Ambition went for the risk of neglecting several terrains, and as much as I love their leaders with breakaways being a lot less of a thing and with sprinters (probably) not fixed they could become a danger too.
AbhishekLFC: Seeing your team's name among the relegation contenders isn't nice but I can't blame Croatia for putting us there. Think most of the teams have been covered barring Sauber, who I think will join us in the relegation battle this season. I wonder whether the Evonik curse will be real though ;).
jandal: I agree a lot with knockout and Croatia here when they speak to the increased competition at the bottom of the table - I’m writing these general ones along with doing my final rankings and after writing the teams questions and I’m surprised how many teams I liked are now in my relegation considerations. It’s going to be very sad seeing some very well-made teams go out. Aside from the names mentioned already since it’s so open I’ll with a heavy heart throw out the names of Bralirwa (who have a great likeable squad but lack a bit of oomph for me and will need their lesser names to step up or their leaders to go nuts) and even Los Pollos if their leaders don’t fire and, dare I say it… Red Bull. I doubt it but if their leaders bust then it’s possible. And yes I know, the curse, but really what are they going to do to my team this year - make me finish lower than last?
Which teams look locked on for promotion?
AbhishekLFC: Aker far and away are the team to beat and the team for whom non-promotion looks almost impossible. Personally I think cycleYorkshire are best set up to join them. Polar are the other team I’m betting on to join the above duo in the PT next season. Popo4Ever and Assa Abloy should once again be in the conversation for promotion, but they might once again be just short!
knockout: Aker definitely looks like a promotion lock to me. If they did not make any huge planning mistakes due to misreading profiles or stuff like that, it seems inevitable that they return to the PT. I don’t think any other team really deserves the term “promotion lock” but some of the former PT teams like Polar, UBS or cycleYorkshire might have the best chances to return.
Croatia14: PCT classically does not entertain as many promotion or “position” locks as other promotions, and this year it’s even closer. Aker is of course the obvious choice, but it’s less about team strength but more about smart planning and calendar exploitation. Popo4ever should have the lowest floor of almost all teams, but can they finally get their planning together (and is promoting even the first priority?). If they do, they should be a 2nd lock. I like Assa Abloy as well and they have shown great planning skills before, but their floor is pretty low as apart from Monsalve almost every rider could fail. knockout’s mentioned teams surely are high floor teams due to their depth, but do they have the leaders to go into promotion squads? I go for Red Bull Zalgiris, as they showed great planning skills and have an anticyclic team with Halvorsen on Manninen-potential. Carlsberg also has the squad to be a promotion favourite, but they need to do well with Guldhammer to achieve and bbl has to prove his skill as a manager to go there.
jandal: Aker, Polar, and cycleYorkshire (in no particular order), before I go more in-depth for the final rankings, jump out as my title contenders and therefore my top 5 locks, but as Croatia said more than even is normal for PCT you just don’t know. Not sure I share the absolute certainty about Aker this year you guys do (I mean I love them as much as you guys but I’m not putting anyone as 100%) - though last year I was a coward and didn’t name my favourite RES-based team in Farfetch as my title winners despite how much i wanted to - and look what happened then...
Who had the best transfer window?
Croatia14: The easy answer would be Carlsberg as probably the strongest promoted team. But at the same time their leaders are 32, so I go for a team that did very well building a base for the future. Wellens and Skujins are awesome to build on if you can avoid relegation. Cedevita brought in awesome talents, Project Africa possibly got the biggest bargain in Bobridge. My choice goes with Red Bull Zalgiris forever. They sold their old riders well, ensured good leaders and signed great young guns like Leknessund and Halvorsen for really cheap. That was a considerable effort well done.
knockout: If Tryg avoids relegation this season, they will be the clear answer in hindsight as obvious promotion favourites for the 2022 season and with a good shot at avoiding relegation from PT in 2023. Otherwise, Carlsberg has to be an obvious answer. And while the transfer window might look a bit straightforward and easy for them due to how strong they were, I would include Aker too. They used their relegation to build around a good age structure where Stake Laengen and Pruus will be the only declining riders post-promotion, got a great fee for Taaramae despite their obvious need to sell and used the cash to make a couple of very smart minor signings such as Lammertink or certain riders who were previously contracted to Grieg. That’s a good way to set yourself up for post-promotion success in PT.
AbhishekLFC: Carlsberg for me with Tryg being the conditional second. I like what Los Pollos did as well with leaders (barring Maksimov) but a lot of their success depends on the game I think, which is unfortunate.
jandal: I don’t have a lot to add to what you guys named given I agree with all the teams there - I also would name Philips as even if they struggle this year they’ve built a squad to stay up whilst having eight of their top ten OVL riders being new additions. I also really like the subtle changes cycleYorkshire made for both the short and long term in the form of Carthy, Fraile and Oliveira.
What impact will the structural changes have for PCT teams (increased C1 race days for CT, changed pcm version, etc)?
knockout: I think the biggest difference to last season will be by far the change to a new game version. PCM18 had some big quirks that could be replaced by new ones. As the ultimate expert on this topic - having never played either game - the biggest effect I’m expecting to see is that there will be less successful breakaways in stage races. PCM18 was quite extreme in the number of breaks that made it all the way so a regression to a more “normal” level might be due. Which effects could this have on riders' scoring? First of all, the top climbers would have more shots at stage points in addition to GC points - raising their value a bit - while the third tier stage racers might see their value diminish a bit. Also it might lessen the importance of the bottom 5-10 riders in the squad a bit. These are often the guys that enter early breakaways and with those not as valuable anymore, teams that have added a few low level talents might lose less compared to the top to bottom strong teams.
Croatia14: Yeah the new game will first and foremost help the Zubeldia-types and hurt the Rolland-type of riders (sadly). Going with attacking riders to a race is not an appealing option anymore, but more likely a low-pointer than before. That will benefit the teams with leader depth, so they can field competitive ones on every race. Of course you can choose your races in PCT pretty freely, but that’s still an issue. Then of course only few riders in PCT can do well at PT level, and these are the top TT- & sprint guys due to randomness in results. While I like the top PCT climbers, only Pluchkin should be top of the class in PTHC, so it’s a good advantage for the in-between riders to pick their races there. Climbers have an easier schedule there, so it’s worth a risk if you have two good climbers. At cobbles and hills it’s the top class only that it’s worth to plan for.
More interesting are the C2 race days. They ensure that it’s quite valuable to have a good C2 leader, especially as neglecting this and hoping for breakaways is not an option anymore. In a tight year signing a very good C2 rider can be the difference in a promotion/relegation fight.
AbhishekLFC: If this was last season, the CT teams might have had a bigger impact with increased RDs in the PCT. What we might see are fuller startlists, which should help the racing somewhat. PCT teams going to more C2 races generally impacts the cobbles more than other areas, which should continue. Barring a couple of riders, like Boswell and Eiking for example, there isn't anyone who can compete at the top of the PCT standings. Even those two will have their work cut out with the strength of the puncher field.
jandal: Calmejane is going to steal a lot of points because he’s awesome. Otherwise just going to not add to what these guys said since I’ve got the privilege of writing this preview with someone who’s actually played the game, someone who helped design the calendar, and someone who is much better than me at remembering what he’s heard from the other two.
Pluchkin vs Alarcon vs Wellens vs Quintana vs Rest
knockout: As much as that answer might bore some of the reader for being a repetition of the last years but it’s gotta be Pluchkin for one more season. He is still the strongest and has good enough support. However, he is no longer untouchable at the top. Lots of rivals will smell his blood/decline and are ready to jump at any moment of weakness. Riders such as Guldhammer or Monsalve can be strong challengers for everyone else. Wellens and Oomen are riders that could challenge for the top if they wouldn’t have played a game of chicken about signing climbing domestiques - and both “won” it.
jandal: Yeah it’s Pluch - one of the biggest challenges could even come from inside his own team with Padun ridiculously still eligible for U25 points. Not really, but just thought he’d be worth mentioning and that was an easy transition. I think knockout hits all the points right, the gap has (obviously) decreased again and now as he says it’s to the point where off days for the Moldovan or even super days for others could see him losing races - but I doubt it will happen too much.
Croatia14: It’s definitely Pluchkin, in combination with Padun even more. This duo also kinda breaks our scale as it should be awarded 11/10 points in the mountains. Individually it’s closer though, but as PCT is pretty weak in terms of climbing (compared to hills f.e.) it is quite insane. I don’t think Quintana and Alarcon will be great success stories, but more “just fine”, while I like Wellens in tours. Watch out for Guldhammer though, he’s one of the rare climbers with a huge punch, so I expect him to do very well and fight (with Wellens and Monsalve) for 2nd best climber of the division. Other names to follow are Novak and Arndt as well as the punchy climbers Kwiatkowski & Beltran and stage racer Keizer.
AbhishekLFC: Pluchkin if he's planned for PCT races, otherwise it's an open race with Wellens and Guldhammer probably the leading duo. Keizer should be the best in TT heavy races.
Hills
Kinoshita vs Bobridge vs Skuijns vs Hagen vs Rest
jandal Wow, what a field we’ve got here! Skujins and Kinoshita look ridiculously similar - Kinoshita with a +3HI +2MO and +1ACC advantage, but the exact same energy stats and SPR. Skujins then has quite a significantly better support cast thanks to Hoelgaard (who can cover his MO weakness) and Smirnovs (though it’s still not brilliant, Bobridge probably with the best thanks to Gebrezgabihier, Ssabagwanya and Seibeb). Bobridge also has a significantly higher ITT (and also the best ACC), and Hagen the faster finish. Behind them, Kelderman isn’t the best in any stat but does it all pretty well, Ponzi has weak backups but easily the strongest sprint if they don’t shake him off before the final km!
In the end give the edge to PCT legend Kinoshita over the PT stars in a one-day race, with Bobridge the next best scorer or perhaps even beating him. Then obviously Kwiatek and Beltran provide strong threats when MO has more of an influence, and Izagirre (along with Bobridge) in the stage races with an ITT.
Croatia14: Probably the toughest battle. The hills may be better in PCT than in PT even this year, which might be a very interesting scenario for PTHC. Not mentioning Ponzi, Beltran, Kwiatkowski and van Garderen in such a list shows the ridiculous strength of the puncheurs.
In terms of “who is the best'' you can count out Skujins, as Kinoshita is a slightly better version. In a Fleche-Wallonne type of race he might be the best. Bobridge has the better punch and TT but lacks the energy stats, which might be less important though. The calendar opportunities in PCT should really be beneficial for him, though surely Project: Africa didn’t plan for him in advance. Kelderman, van Garderen and McCarthy probably suffer from the one thing that makes them better than the opposition at some point. I still like Ponzi a lot and think that he might be the most successful, with great support and the sprint stat that might be of great use, if he can overcome his res-issues. Probably it’s not the year of Izagirre (Bobridge is a better version of him), Kwiatkowski or Beltran (they’ll take too many points away from each other). Anything is possible really, and a lot of puncheurs will score less than what their team probably planned for them.
AbhishekLFC: On a personal note, the last time we were in the PCT, Kelderman was billed to be one of the top punchers in the division but struggled big-time. He just about makes the Top 10 this time (barely), so it’s not looking great for us in that respect!
Having said all this, I think the hill classics battle will be mainly between Kinoshita and Hagen while I expect Bobridge to have better luck in the stage races. Skuijns should be a regular podium contender for the former, with maybe a win or two thrown in, while he should be a regular Top 5 contender in the stage races, the less TT kilometers the better.
knockout: It’s hard to see a winner in the hills division as at least five puncheurs who could have been a dominant rider in other seasons. Ranking wise, I see Kinoshita, Bobridge and Kwiatkowski as the most likely top scorers - with each of them being the best rider in their niche. But riders like Skujins, Izagirre and Beltran are very similar riders to them with just a tiny difference in quality. And riders such as Kelderman or Ponzi are always a threat to win any race too. With so many strong contenders, it’s hard to see whether one of them can cross the 1000 points this season since they will share the wins and podium finishes around so much.
Time-Trials
Zmorka vs Durbridge vs Keizer vs Rest
jandal I mean Zmorka has to be the clear favourite when it’s just down to ITTs - he’s a full statpoint clear of Turbo Durbo with better FL-RES combo to survive the road stages, and two clear of anyone else. However Durbridge does have easily the classier TTT line-up of the two, so if he pipped him on overall points through that I wouldn’t be completely shocked. Keizer I think will focus more on mountainous stage races as is his forte, and despite getting weaker compared to many climbers he’s still probably got a better chance in those races than risking drowning in the sea of 79/80 TT riders. Brandle and Fraile as always provide unique (or nearly unique I should say :P) skillsets and given their increased RDs over Keizer can have more variety in their schedule. Of the “rest” I probably rate Cataford and Mullen the highest with their skills on road stages - Oliveira and even Viviani could have been at the same level as them individually but they’re stuck behind Durbridge, however therefore the same TTT bonus applies to them. But then again, Oliveira should end up the highest of that quartet thanks to his U25 scoring. So possibly #1 Zmorka, #2 Durbridge, #3 Oliveira.
Croatia14: Keizer is a juicy rider and did incredibly well in PCT in the past, so I naturally would put him #1. But would you consider him a Time Trialist first? Zmorka comes with a huge paycheck and good support in the TTT, and his team surely planned everything they can for him. That should make for some great opportunities, and he’s clearly the best TT guy. CycleYorkshire has the best TTT team which might give Durbridge a huge boost, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Fraile ends up being their best scoring TT guy and ends up high in the rankings. If you wanna call him a TT guy, don’t sleep on Eddy Dunbar either. He came with a huge pay-check as well, takes home u25 points and will target any TT stage race for sure.
AbhishekLFC: The PCT TT line-up isn’t the strongest this time, so Zmorka should really run away with the crown, at least in pure TT races and TT stages. Durbridge is a good leader for the TTT, with a better support cast, as Jandal already mentioned. Think I agree with Croatia’s assessment of Fraile, a rider I rate very highly in general, and for this season’s PCT in particular. Keizer should be similar, and between himself and Brandle will hold the key to their team’s season. One can imagine Brandle as definitely Fraile light, and with good planning should do well himself.
knockout: Sorting the PCT division by MO and TT, it seems obvious to me that Keizer should be planned far closer to a pure TTer than to a pure climber. If you could maximize his planning, he could get dangerously close to Zmorkas scoring but I have major doubts that his schedule does him any good (see my take on Zalgiris later). Because of that, I cannot pick anyone other than Zmorka.
Sprints
Ewan vs Van Staeyen vs Kennaugh vs Howard vs Manninen vs Rest
knockout: Caleb Ewan. I’ve been a fan of his for quite some time and if he wasn't stuck in a mediocre team without ambition, he should have had one of the most impressive list of victories in the entire cycling world by now. Behind him, Kennaugh and Van Stayen look like the strongest sprinters - depending on how the route to the finish looks. But one thing should be sure: We won’t have a completely dominant sprinter any time soon.
jandal I can’t look past Ewan much like knockout, he simply has the best sprint stats and leadout, they all have similar FL stats, and he has solid backups as well as his 70+ HI and COB. Van Staeyen obviously has the HI advantage but I don’t think any of his main rivals in a sprint except maybe Ewan will follow him to those races. Looking below the top guys to rouleur-sprinters who could upset them, my best picks are Van Asbroeck, Asbjorn Kragh Andersen, Lander or Bonifazio, but it all depends how PCM treats you at the end of the day. Also lest we forget Matti Manninen who came 4th (!) in the standings last year!
Croatia14: Having done a lot of testing on sprints with PCM20, it depends a lot on how reporting will be handled. If we can cut out the AI issues then Ewan should be the best. But it also depends a lot on how they set up their sprint train. Right now I don’t see a fitting idea: They’d probably have to use Altur (which I wouldn’t want) or Bridges (better idea) as 3rd man and then a guy like Edmondson as 2nd one to have a proper kick for Ewan. But if they just sent loads of sprinters for him that may backfire massively with the confusing AI. Binance looks more healthy for Kennough with (f.e.) Kennett and Noppe, but I’m not fully convinced by their flat squad either.
Instead I’d imagine somebody from the 2nd row (Manninen again?) to hit the nail in the coffin by setting himself up perfectly. Who might that be? Statwise I love Silvestre with his flat, useful time trial/prologue and good ACC and think he could be perfect surfing trains and kicking from there, but I’d also mention Halvorsen who still receives them juicy u25-points without competition. Also I sadly don’t really trust Van Stayen with his Acceleration in this setup, and fear he might be over the cliff of scoring well in hilly races with the low acc. Very curious to see how Theo Reinhardt does, after his amazing CT season I expect him to be either really fun or disgracefully clapped.
AbhishekLFC: Think I will go against the grain and say Kennaugh or Howard will actually be the more effective sprinter this season. Manninen was unbelievable last season, but it might be a stretch to repeat it (despite me rooting for him surely). Ewan needs to break the hoodoo, and the hope for him is the change to PCM 20 which may change his fortunes as well. He should be the best, but hasn’t been yet. He has the flat squad to make that right though.
Northern Classics
Spengler vs Blythe vs Altur vs Zepuntke vs Stallaert vs Trentin
knockout: I look forward to the PCT cobbles as the lack of a dominant favorite should make for exciting racing. I see the trio of Blythe, Trentin and Stallaert as the riders to beat. In part due to better team depth on the cobbles, I see Blythe as the most likely winner of flat cobbled races but he is less versatile than most of the other top guys so it’s unlikely that he will be the top scorer amongst these.
jandal: I am also really interested to watch the classics this year, makes me wish I was still reporting as now I’m out of the PCT I could start doing them again like I used to! I don’t know if Spengler is good or not, I know Zepuntke isn’t, so it comes down to the other four for me. I agree Blythe should have the best chances in a flat race - however he also needs to drop both of Stallaert and (to a lesser extent) Trentin and with worse HI and ACC than both and less FL than Stallaert that’s no easy task, it will take some sustained pressure. Trentin has the best HI of anybody with over 74HI except for Philips’ David and his own Carlsberg teammate Sinkeldam as well as a quick finish which makes him look like a real danger. I have to say I think it’ll be Stallaert as the top scorer here.
Croatia14: Good points on the cobbles. I like Blythe, but I think his favourite role won’t really help him and he’ll have to do more work which won’t benefit him. At the end it might often come down to a sprint of the 5-12 strongest riders. If that’s an energy sprint it’s anybody's game, but if it’s a normal sprint I rate Stallaert and Trentin higher. That’s why I’d give Stallaert the slight edge over the opposition, but it’s between those three. I think acceleration and mountain might matter more on the hilly cobbles than the hill stat itself, so there probably might not be too many differences between the big guns if they have reasonable mountain qualities. The differences will be made in the final kick, hence I go Stallaert > Trentin > Blythe > others.
AbhishekLFC: I really like Trentin despite probably Blythe and Stallaert being the better pure cobbles riders. Those three should be at the top of the pile. Altur would be my pick to be next but he needs to be even better for the sake of his team.
knockout: Aker looks like an early favourite for the title and should be a lock for the promotion spots. With the strong division on the hills, Kwiatkowski should be one of the less impacted puncheurs and is a scoring guarantee. Galta and Amezawa add further fire power in climbing races so that the team should have good scoring potential in basically every uphill race. Anderberg is not proven yet as a maxed leader but will be an excellent points per wage value - particularly with a few perfect races like Arenberg on his schedule. And the TTT team is also fairly decent. There is no way that the team isn't promoting.
jandal: There’s a lot to love about Aker - and I’m almost exclusively talking about their RES stats, wow oh wow! One of a few teams this year where not a roster spot is wasted in terms of contributing this season - this is a squad made almost entirely to get them back where they belong in the top echelon of cycling and they make a pretty good case for doing so. I don’t think I can sum up Kwiatkowski better than knockout did - he’s a guarantee, we know what he is about and he’ll do it. Galta is one of the less flashy climbers (though who can forget his glorious 2019 Tour de France?) but his solid time trial ability and backups should see GC consistency for him. Amezawa is a rider I forgot existed completely until I opened the DB to do my first impressions, but now I’m in love and will be bidding for him every year until he declines - he’s a very similar but better version of last season’s Areruya (but not U25) and if he gets his own calendar and some luck could be a very valuable top 60 scorer or better. Anderberg will surprise people in regular cobbles races I think and after that has his Spartacus-lite skill set for De Panne and Arenberg. Then there’s great mountain help and GC depth, a very solid TTT unit, some very sexy domestiques/hybrid/breakaway scorers and Lasse Norman Hansen! Maybe I’d like another leader here but overall it’s a very good quality team!
Croatia14: To add to Mr.jandals comment: Would you please f*** off Mr. Videika, you’re disturbing the beautiful picture. The team looks incredibly good, the sure favourite to win it all. Ember of course is very experienced and knows how to work a team of quality. I don’t like Galta but he’s solid. I don’t think Kwiatek will score as much as stats suggest but he will do good. And still they should win it all, with riders like Amezawa, Anderberg (I don’t think his TT is of great use but I love the flat+hill+acc+res on a cobbler), Lammertink and Hansen in the second row the team can’t really lose it, or can they? They’re definitely the hunted.
AbhishekLFC: For me, it is clear that there is Aker, and then there is the rest in PCT. Galta is a strong leader for the mountains with great support to back him up. Kwaitkowski is probably the strongest punchy stage racer in the division and should bring in bucket loads of points. His support isn’t great but he does not really need it. The TTT team is great too, with a strong Lammertink leading the line, and me regretting a little not going for him now. Anderberg should outdo his 78 cob stat with those impressive energy stats. They don’t have a sprinter, but don’t really need it. A surefire title winner for me, and it’s time to already plan for PT next season I think.
Aker - MOT
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
7
8
0
5
8
8
Croatia14
7
7
0
6
7
7
jandal7
7
7
0
5
7
9
knockout
8
7
1
4
7
9
Assa Abloy
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Yonathan Monsalve
68
81
76
72
79
80
77
56
65
73
69
65
72
x
32
Marcus Faglum
71
79
73
73
78
75
76
56
60
68
66
74
79
x
27
Vegard Breen
77
62
70
68
72
72
71
78
73
72
74
66
68
x
31
Jacopo Guarnieri
74
56
64
50
74
73
78
62
80
78
66
60
73
x
34
Lionel Coutinho
72
63
65
52
75
74
77
55
79
80
55
64
52
x
29
Robbie Squire
68
77
77
65
70
70
76
65
61
71
76
65
65
x
31
Paolo Scarponi
68
77
75
66
71
72
75
56
62
70
70
83
66
x
32
Lars Van der Haar
77
66
72
66
70
72
69
75
72
70
76
78
71
x
30
Elie Gesbert
70
73
76
64
78
77
77
62
67
71
75
66
66
4
26
Jan-Andre Freuler
69
72
75
68
73
75
72
59
67
75
67
75
69
x
29
Mario Gonzalez Salas
70
57
60
80
74
76
67
60
61
54
78
61
80
x
29
Jacopo Mosca
71
72
75
63
73
75
68
60
65
75
80
71
68
x
28
Isaac Bolivar
73
61
66
69
74
70
69
77
64
69
68
75
69
x
30
Tony Gallopin
74
70
73
74
77
76
72
65
69
71
79
69
73
x
33
Thomas Bonnin
65
77
72
63
71
68
69
51
54
73
76
79
63
x
32
Torkil Veyhe
80
66
68
65
66
71
69
51
56
78
80
71
69
x
27
Arthur Vichot
69
64
75
64
76
67
67
59
65
79
81
72
64
x
33
Leopold Konig
69
76
72
71
70
71
67
64
57
62
68
58
71
x
34
Alexander Konychev
77
60
65
59
74
74
63
62
73
71
73
60
70
3
23
Nickolas Zukowsky
65
62
68
67
68
67
67
60
69
69
74
65
68
1
23
Talking Points
jandal: Assa Abloy have established themselves as solid promotion contenders, building around a hilarious habit of releasing and then re-signing a declining Jacopo Guarirneinieri, who has consistently overperformed his stats and in fact improved after his 2019-20 decline. However it would be truly insane to think he could match that feat, and although still a good option, especially in terms of points-to-wage, it seems that their best-case scenario might be that the new talent only covers his dropped scoring, rather than gives them the final touch for promotion. Faglum Karlsson will shoulder most of it on his own, a very good addition who complements Monsalve very nicely, but could diminish the scoring of their admittedly impressive supporting cast of climbers. After that there is Robbie Squire, who looks like he adds not much scoring value that Scarponi didn’t bring already (to the point he finished just 5 points behind the Sanmarinese last year), especially with a second stage race leader now present. However, those two and Konig do make for excellent mountain support. Perhaps Squire is here to be a hill leader which could be a savvy move. Lionel Coutinho and Elie Gesbert (the more traditional hills leader) are the other noted additions, the former is a below average sprinter but could grab some points by attending races like Andorra with 1 flat stage which don’t attract guys over 80. The latter has eye-catching energy stats but lacks the punch or actual hill skills to be anything more than the best of their impressive depth scorers. Maybe they can improve on last year - certainly guys like van der Haar and Gallopin have a big season in them with some luck.
knockout: This is another year where Assa Abloy is in the challenger role as a top ten team that might be good enough to promote. I like the Faglum Karlsson signing a lot as he adds a second strong stage race option - his prologue stat and the better hill stat of Monsalve gives the team some slight differences between their two options to make planning easier. The team also added decent 2nd tier leaders in Gonzalez Salah or Coutinho but they shouldn’t be able to fully replace the decline / previous overperformance by Guarnieri enough.
Croatia14: jandal broke down the team pretty neatly. I just love how Assa Abloy sets the team up year by year, and would consider SykkelFreak as one of the top tier managers in the game. His team is a classical upside team. Breen & Faglum (Damn boy, he expensive!) don’t need much support, Monsalve got enough and in other races the support can hunt results itself, the sprinters only need to surf trains, Gallopin and Veyhe are just lovely. Gonzalez irritates me a little as he doesn’t properly fit the team, but he probably just serves the mandatory TT races. To me the team has everything, and promotion would be the logical next step for the squad.
AbhishekLFC: Was the Guarneri resigning really necessary though? Everyone pretty much has covered their strong points. Breen once again should overperform his stats. Monsalve should have a better season with less competition than last time. They will be near the promotion spots for sure, but I'm not certain of a top 5.
Assa Abloy
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
8
2
5
5
4
4
Croatia14
9
2
5
6
5
3
jandal7
7
2
5
5
4
6
knockout
8
3
4
4
5
4
Binance Cycling
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Peter Kennaugh
77
58
65
63
74
71
80
58
82
81
70
63
63
x
32
Pedro Miguel Paulinho
67
75
80
64
70
72
74
56
68
75
70
62
64
x
31
Andrea Guardini
72
55
64
59
74
69
71
60
80
82
74
60
59
x
32
Joao Rodrigues
65
78
73
74
73
75
77
55
61
72
70
68
74
x
27
Jose Fernandes
71
75
70
77
78
77
76
53
62
67
60
68
77
x
26
Sergio Luis Henao
68
80
69
69
72
76
72
50
56
70
68
60
69
x
34
Dylan Kennett
75
58
65
69
73
76
78
62
79
78
67
68
78
x
27
Davide Gabburo
75
68
76
64
73
75
68
55
72
76
79
65
63
x
28
Robert Bush
74
63
63
62
75
73
71
78
71
73
66
74
62
x
31
Rafael Valls
67
77
73
70
75
74
73
54
60
69
67
64
70
x
34
David Bartl
69
77
72
71
73
74
75
52
60
70
71
66
75
x
30
Rafael Silva
68
65
75
66
75
70
56
63
74
79
66
64
61
x
31
Clement Venturini
75
63
68
65
74
74
79
72
75
77
63
73
69
x
28
Joao Almeida
68
76
68
69
73
75
74
53
63
70
66
71
69
3
23
Amaro Antunes
67
76
72
63
71
69
70
55
60
67
74
72
63
x
31
Luis Afonso
68
66
77
58
75
73
70
52
57
70
70
71
58
x
31
Miguel Angel Benito
68
75
70
73
72
71
73
51
56
61
67
62
73
x
28
Christophe Noppe
75
61
69
62
74
73
68
73
75
73
66
68
63
x
27
Polychronis Tzortzakis
70
61
63
75
74
69
70
55
75
74
62
60
76
x
32
Georgios Stavrakakis
72
61
67
71
70
67
64
72
64
67
69
61
73
3
23
Joel Yates
69
63
73
68
73
72
69
63
61
66
70
68
68
3
25
Talking Points
jandal: Possibly the most impressive stage race support cast have been assembled to support the PCT’s 4th-worst stage race leader - I think they’d seriously be better off not having Henao at all and freeing Rodrigues, Valls and Bartl to act as a trident hunting depth points, and then Fernandes to be able to try and ape Fraile and Brandle’s success in their niche. Certainly if they used his wage elsewhere it would be good - 175,000 is a decent job in renewals, but is also the price of a much better rider - and if you used that and Guardini’s 180,000 to sign a new leader you could do quite a lot of damage. To be fair to Guardini he actually wasn’t that bad last year so maybe I’m still judging him too harshly based on his awful Fablok days. But the message is clear - this is a very handy squad with a couple of missteps for me which could stop them making the leap out of the mid-table into clear promotion candidates. However with the arrival of Kennaugh who has a very very good train in support we could see an improvement on Ben Swift’s scoring last season, while Bush is a handy addition and the mountain unit should still score depth points. So should be an improvement on last year all the same.
knockout: I hope that the change of PCM version fixes the issue of leadout trains and Binance would be one of the teams that would benefit a lot from it as Venturini/Noppe - Kennett - Kennaugh looks like one of the strongest leadout trains the division has to offer. How much that will help Kennaugh to repeat his strong 2020 season will play a large part in deciding the fate of the team. Paulinho and the group of stage racers will also contribute a lot of scoring though the team would have been smart to upgrade on Henao even if that might have cost them one or two depth pieces. But even with Henao at the front of their stage racers, the team looks destined for a mid table finish.
Croatia14: Don’t get your hopes up, they don’t. Still, as said in the sprinters battle, of all the teams they are probably still set the best. Kennaugh has a stellar stat combination, and Guardini in complementary races would be fantastic either, as he can surf trains and then use his punch. A lot depends on how the sprint train is going, as I’m not overly convinced in the other pieces. Bush is a solid cobbler worth his money, and tended to overperform in the past. Paulinho usually is a cool rider and will do well, but with Beltran and Kwiatkowski he has two guys doing his stuff just better, and on the pure hills he lacks the main stat + flat/sprint to be outstanding. He’ll probably underwhelm, also due to the weak support. I like the mountain train and the stage racing outlook with the portuguese double header, if it only wasn’t for Henao. Hopefully the Colombian doesn’t block his mates. Gabburo is a great attacking option, whose skillset the game used to love.
For me the team does depend a lot more on good planning than other teams. If they set up sprint trains and climbers/stage racers selection carelessly, then the team could even end up in the bottom 5. But with good planning the team can easily be a mid-table team, if they can get Kennaugh to go bunkers then maybe even more.
AbhishekLFC: It does not bode well for a team to have sprints as their best terrain, given what we see every season, but I must reiterate that Kennaugh keeps doing well and Guardini should cover the gaps that the former has on the calendar. The problem with both Henao and Paulinho is that they’ve gotten worse or stayed still while the competition has moved forward. All that support is a bit of a waste it seems.
Binance Cycling
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
6
5
8
3
2
5
Croatia14
4
4
9
4
1
4
jandal7
5
5
9
4
1
2
knockout
3
5
9
4
2
4
Bralirwa - Stevens
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Joeri Stallaert
77
60
67
58
76
68
80
81
79
76
67
66
58
x
30
Fabio Silvestre
78
61
67
73
70
71
74
56
80
81
70
63
77
x
31
Madushanka Perera
71
53
64
58
69
73
77
64
79
80
50
61
74
x
28
Valens Ndayisenga
66
78
75
65
69
68
73
52
63
73
72
69
65
x
27
Joey Rosskopf
73
73
75
76
73
71
70
57
61
70
68
67
77
x
32
Jacob Fiedler
76
57
65
80
70
71
73
57
63
58
64
60
79
x
34
Bonav. Uwizeyimana
71
76
72
74
76
75
77
50
56
68
69
58
74
x
28
Andrea Vendrame
72
62
76
58
75
73
73
60
71
75
67
67
70
x
27
Mektel Eyob
68
76
76
66
74
69
73
55
62
66
72
73
66
x
28
Loic Vliegen
71
67
77
61
76
70
70
68
66
74
71
69
67
x
28
Yves Lampaert
75
60
66
56
74
73
69
78
60
61
71
67
56
x
30
Bob Schoonbroodt
72
63
75
63
75
73
67
74
68
72
61
74
63
x
30
Tesfom Okbamariam
73
66
65
59
70
73
67
76
72
68
65
78
59
x
30
Souheil Khederi
67
74
76
61
68
67
71
59
58
73
67
71
59
x
30
Janvier Hadi
68
74
72
74
73
70
71
61
74
71
68
69
74
x
29
Houcaine El Sabbahi
73
64
68
63
70
72
68
64
73
73
68
67
68
3
24
Natnael Tesfatsion
66
68
70
60
64
68
68
60
68
71
66
62
61
1
22
Moise Mugisha
66
68
70
61
62
72
69
60
62
69
76
63
60
3
24
Samuel Mugisha
72
63
68
70
67
70
68
63
62
68
71
64
64
3
24
Henok Mulubrhan
66
64
68
65
64
68
68
61
66
70
66
63
66
1
22
Yacob Debesay
64
66
68
59
66
67
68
62
62
69
68
64
59
1
22
Talking Points
jandal: Bralirwa is a team that when I sort by OVL I love the top 1, and spots 4-15… I just wish they were spots 6-17, or at the very least that #2 and #3 combined for more than 240 points last year whilst being on the same terrain with similar weaknesses. Of course I’m being a little tricksy as Ndayisenga and Fiedler (in fact include Eyob, Rosskopf, Uwizeyimana, Vendrama, Rosskopf and Lampaert too) are clearly well above Perera, who also can be excused as he’s rather a good wage-per-points scorer on a minimum deal, but you still get the feeling they’re asking maybe too much of Stallaert, Silvestre, Fiedler and Ndayisenga here to hope for clear safety. Silvestre’s fairly big wage as well as the FA signing of Stallaert (who I’m not saying wasn’t worth it) make this feel like a team worth slightly less than the salary cap, who nevertheless have done well with that fact! Just a lack of oomph at the top maybe. With decent depth and solid leaders they should be able to survive on first glance, but it may be a bumpy ride.
AbhishekLFC: Stallaert, Silvestre, Fiedler, Rosskopf and Uwizeyimana are all great additions to any PCT team, and think they’ll do just fine for Bralirwa this season. But I still get a nagging feeling they’ll be in and around the uncomfortable 18th to 23rd spots all season. Stallaert will probably decide on which end of that spectrum they end. Trentin and Blythe will share a lot of the top-end cobbles points with their afore-mentioned leader, so it might be a bit tricky in that regard to dominate the cobbles. Silvestre should be as consistent as always and could also become a trump card in their survival bid, but once again that’s a lot to put onto the game and it’s love-hate relationship with most sprinters.
Croatia14: *checking back my verdict on cobbles* Another team that laid all eggs in one basket: Stallaert earns a lot, but with the PCT set-up he is worth it. Send him to all Cobbled races you can get and he’ll do well as I suspect the cobbles to more often than not be decided by reduced sprints of 4-10 riders. Then he’ll be perfect. Getting Lampaert very late for 100k was a key achievement and will help massively. Additionally, missing a puncheur might have been (accidentally?) a perfect decision this year, with Ndayisenga at least capable of some results. I like what the team did with Rosskopf, Uwizeyimana and Hadi, they add various options for an undervalued TT+ 1-2 tough stages race type and can even work well in PTHC. I would’ve liked 2 more versatile TT guys instead of the Mugisha-brothers to make the most out of them and Fiedler, but I enjoy the home-emphasis of the squad.
In terms of sprinters they should be just fine. I wanted to sign Silvestre myself for multiple years and train him, but just didn’t get to do so. He can survive hills and pick the stage races with Prologues/TTs, which should work well as long as the game doesn’t think he’s a rouleur. Perera for 50k is fine as long as he doesn’t ride alongside Silvestre. The team looks better than the main stats suggest to me, and I trust 2nd year manager cunego59 after his surprising achievements in the first year that he’ll manage to avoid relegation somehow.
knockout: The consensus here seems to be that Bralirwa will find itself in the uncomfortable region just slightly above the relegation spots and I agree with that assessment. I like the moves the team has done a lot: Stallaert and Silvestre are two very cool leaders that might have their weaknesses (Mainly Resistance for JS / top speed for FS) but should be great this season and beyond. Then there is that very cool core of African riders of which Ndayisenga and Uwizeyimana should be the best scoring options.. In the end, I think the one year rental of Fiedler might be the deciding factor to push the team above the line.
Bralirwa - Stevens
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
4
2
6
8
7
6
Croatia14
2
1
7
9
6
3
jandal7
3
2
5
8
5
3
knockout
3
2
6
8
6
5
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Rasmus Guldhammer
68
81
77
71
74
75
74
69
70
76
71
65
71
x
32
Matteo Trentin
74
60
74
61
76
71
75
81
75
76
67
56
67
x
32
Asbjorn Kragh
77
53
64
65
70
74
78
53
81
77
60
61
75
x
29
Alex Aranburu
69
77
77
63
70
79
74
57
68
71
62
67
63
x
26
Sebastian Lander
77
55
69
59
77
72
79
73
79
77
63
59
59
x
30
Lawrence Warbasse
70
78
75
74
75
73
72
58
60
65
72
68
74
x
31
Ramon Sinkeldam
74
65
75
64
74
70
68
77
68
68
75
74
64
x
32
Niklas Eg
67
77
71
74
76
74
75
59
60
68
66
65
72
x
26
Rasmus Sterobo
70
71
63
78
74
69
69
52
56
73
57
77
78
x
30
Georgios Bouglas
72
64
70
58
72
67
76
53
78
78
62
67
58
x
31
Patrick Olesen
68
75
75
62
72
73
74
63
63
73
61
66
61
x
27
Timothy Roe
66
75
73
75
71
69
72
57
62
74
70
62
75
x
32
Olli Kulppi
73
59
67
61
73
69
69
77
65
70
63
70
60
x
30
Kasper Asgreen
67
66
77
68
70
69
67
55
64
74
75
66
68
x
26
Gyasi Sulvaran
71
68
72
71
66
75
65
54
65
72
76
67
72
3
27
Mathias Krigbaum
76
69
70
74
74
75
73
62
65
64
70
69
73
x
26
Hugo Forssell
64
62
68
71
66
69
65
57
72
72
69
67
71
1
22
Matus Stocek
68
64
69
60
68
67
68
67
68
69
69
70
60
1
22
Antti-Jussi Juntunen
67
61
69
61
65
68
63
61
68
69
66
61
60
1
22
Joel Suter
71
62
68
65
70
69
66
66
65
67
68
68
65
1
23
Tore Andre Vabo
69
64
69
68
65
68
65
62
66
68
71
65
66
2
23
Jens Reynders
67
61
64
60
68
68
67
69
66
69
65
64
62
2
23
Goldwijnn Cannister
67
61
65
64
68
63
65
66
66
70
70
62
66
1
22
Talking Points
jandal: Obviously the headline grabber is the huge double deal with Mapei to bring in the incredible duo of Guldhammer and Trentin, both with a good argument to be top 3 in their terrains and both arriving on very reasonable wages. Kragh Andersen, Aranburu, Lander and Warbasse provide a very handy quartet of further leaders (though the two climbers obviously may have to do some time in the service of Guldhammer). Bouglas, Eg, Olesen, Roe and Sinkeldam are all very good domestiques and minor scorers in their own right. This is a very impressive set-up for a promoted team. A pretty old one, but that’s alright when it’s guaranteed to do the job for them this year and then some!
Croatia14: You sometimes see promoted teams going in win-now mode. That usually is to cure potential relegation headaches, but at Carlsberg it’s different. While that may have been the first intent, the outcome is completely different: The Danish side of elevator-manager bbl might actually have assembled the strongest PCT squad of all. Mightily impressive as a promoted team. They learned from their past mistakes: Less wasted wages & roster spots, great leaders, awesome 2nd row and good support. And suddenly the tables turn, and there almost are no excuses not to promote. Bbl may have some disadvantage having rarely planned riders of such quality and a promotion fight, but this is a huge opportunity. The leaders are 32, so the time is now to grab that window of opportunity. And if they do as they should, then we finally see bbl in PT next year, the place he deserves for what he contributed to the community for multiple years.
knockout: It looks like Carlsberg has switched into an entirely different gear this off-season and turned into one of the strongest back-to-back promotion contenders we have seen in a while. Signing Guldhammer and Trentin while barely losing any of their depth and retaining Warbasse, Kragh Andersen, Aranburu and Sinkeldam should put the team in a very strong situation for the season. With good depth on basically every terrain, a top 10 finish looks like a forgone conclusion to me and the sky's the limit.
AbhishekLFC: Have already said how I think they’ve done fantastically well in the off-season. The young team didn’t get them the CT title last season, it was incredibly close, but it has translated into them being able to turn themselves into a solid and better PCT team. Like knockout mentions, I think a Top 10 is well on the cards, and with how close the division is, and, like I think he might, Trentin becomes the one to beat in the cobbles, they have a serious shot at back-to-back promotion!
AbhishekLFC: Carrefour have had an eye to pick up riders who perform better than their stats, and that was mostly how they claimed the CT title last season. They have continued with that strategy with the jarring exception of Van Staeyen who looks like a superb signing for the PCT! Despite the decline and the low acceleration, Van Staeyen looks like he will be in the conversation for the win in all flat races, and even some bumpy ones, that he enters. Daniel is a solid cobbles rider and should be a Top 10 surety and a Top 5 contender in almost all of his races. Going uphill, Chamorro needs to recapture the magic from last season, otherwise, they don’t have a lot of firepower there, with a 35 year old Bakelants not likely to scare a lot of his competitors. Get the feeling the late double capture of Kuboki and Hayakawa is the actual off-season move that assures their safety and gets them into mid-table.
jandal: I’m not quite sure what to make of Carrefour - a lot will depend on Van Staeyen maximising himself and with the calendar not as generous to hilly sprinters as it was four or five years ago (and since I’ve had Houle in the intervening years I’m always going to bring that fact up in this preview!) he will end up with some flat races unless they think he can join Bakelants in the hillier stuff which would seem a mistake. I’m not familiar enough with the new game version to speak too much about leadouts but I would suspect having six possible leadout-sprinters with a higher acceleration than your leader might not result in a fully optimised train - and since he might take time getting to speed he doesn’t want to be train-hopping too long. Still, he’s a formidable rider, and some of those sprinters as Abhi very rightly points out are valuable options on their own, in Boeckmans, Hayakawa and the “is he still underrated or do we all speak about him so much that everyone actually does rate him and even overrates him?” man himself, Kazushige Kuboki. Daniel is a very good cobbler, Bakelants is an average puncheur, and Chamorro is a very nice option to threaten the top 60 and provide what I would guess will be much-needed points, and if planned well probably ends up their second-top scorer unless Daniel regularly threatens the top guns.
Croatia14: Let the cat out of the bag: I do not like the pick-up of van Stayen and I think it will endanger their security to bank on him. He’s the rider I would’ve loved in my PCT team on PCM15. But on PCM20? Kump was better last year and couldn’t keep whitejersey safe of relegating. The Acceleration makes him more of a Guerao-Sprinter than a world-class sprinter. The hill stat can only be used if it’s not a real hill race, cause for those he lacks mo/res/acc. And by just riding over tough hills acceleration & mountain might be equally as important as the hill stat, so can he benefit there. Which leaves me with the question: In which races can van Stayen use his hill+sprint skillset? I honestly can’t answer this question, so van Stayen for me could turn into the disappointment of the season (and also hold other good sprinters like Boeckmans or hybrid sprinters like Kuboki back).
That said, at the end it may be completely different. To touch on the others on the team: Bakelants should be a constant 8-15, Quevedo, Gautier, Garby, Novak and the sprinters could be decent depth, Kuboki, Daniel and Chamorri need to be good secondary leaders. My issue is: I don’t see a rider that can constantly finish in the top5 in any race. Usually that’s not a good sign if you’re not Kraftwerk-level deep. Carrefour is deep, but Kraftwerk-deep!?
knockout: Carrefour puts a lot of pressure on the shoulders of Michael Van Stayen but comparing him to other low acc sprinters such as Guerao, Avelino or Lo Cicero seems very unfair to him. All of them have tons of other problems on top of the acceleration: terrible resistance, awful climbing ability, less stamina and a below average hill stat. None of which is a trait that Van Stayen shares with them. The comparison to Kump is a lot more fair but Van Stayen has always been tenfold the pure sprinter Kump has ever been and yet Kump still scored almost double the points of someone like Guerao. I’d say the 575 points Kump scored last season is the absolute floor of what you might expect from Van Stayen with the expected points higher than that. What will help Van Stayen is that this year’s PCT punchy sprinter field is about as empty as the list of Bangladeshi olympic gold medal winners. If you want to look for a sprinter that is even slightly better on the hills than someone like Caleb Ewan, you have to scroll all the way down to riders such as MVS’ teammate Kazushige Kuboki, Julian Alaphilippe and Pascal Ackermann with 77SP each. Sure, post-PCM15 he will not be a contender in Strade Bianche anymore but he will be force in races like the Tour Down Under where his superior hill stat avoids that he loses time on the hills and gives him a big advantage in the fight for the points jersey - similar to how he beat Ahlstrand for the green jersey at the Tour de France just last season.
However a key difference to Kump and whitejersey last season is that Van Stayen might be the star in the headlights just like Kump was but the team depth surrounding Van Stayen is vastly superior. Daniel might not be super exciting to watch but he is a very solid cobbler that very reliably can add at least some points on the cobbles. He will also be key for Van Stayen as a good fit for a leadout when the team has a lot of unsuited sprinters with too much acceleration. Boeckmans might get older but he can still do well in races such as the Rheden GP as well as a couple of sprints throughout the season. The Japanese surprise cuts Kuboki and Hayakawa are outstanding value signings. Chamorro, Bakelants, Novak and a multitude of sprinters in every race can also keep the points trickling in. I see the team as a somewhat safe mid table team.
Carrefour - ESPN
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
5
5
7
6
2
7
Croatia14
3
3
7
6
1
6
jandal7
3
5
8
6
2
7
knockout
5
4
8
5
2
8
Cedevita
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
E. Alexander Beltran
69
79
81
66
73
72
72
59
66
76
78
74
66
x
31
Jose Alarcon
68
83
72
66
69
72
71
50
58
76
78
65
65
x
33
Lahcen Saber
75
62
68
64
74
72
78
76
81
79
63
68
70
x
31
David Gaudu
73
71
78
66
78
75
71
57
68
70
69
69
66
x
25
Andrea Zordan
67
73
77
55
72
72
70
53
65
74
72
62
55
x
29
Tadej Pogacar
68
75
72
73
76
76
76
51
63
69
66
65
72
3
23
Matej Vysna
67
76
75
64
70
73
68
50
52
69
62
58
64
x
33
Abolfazl Gilanipoor
69
77
71
68
74
71
73
53
56
73
67
73
68
x
32
Olivier Le Gac
70
69
77
60
73
74
71
52
64
69
74
73
60
x
28
Izidor Penko
71
68
71
76
73
74
71
58
65
70
62
71
76
x
25
Gasper Katrasnik
81
61
63
69
72
76
69
63
63
72
81
73
69
x
26
Dusan Rajovic
71
58
64
59
70
75
69
55
76
80
57
57
61
4
24
Havard Blikra
69
75
75
65
72
70
73
52
62
72
69
63
65
x
30
Miha Poljanec
77
67
69
63
70
68
67
73
71
71
69
73
63
x
26
Michael Christodoulos
71
66
67
76
73
68
68
53
53
64
73
65
77
4
24
Matija Mestric
72
63
69
63
68
69
67
74
55
65
70
75
67
4
24
Ivan Siric
74
63
69
65
72
76
60
71
73
70
59
74
65
3
23
Jefferson Cepeda
69
70
72
64
69
68
67
61
66
70
68
67
62
3
25
Alexander Evans
64
73
69
70
67
69
69
61
57
66
66
62
67
3
24
Juan Pedro Lopez
65
73
70
58
69
69
71
55
60
74
69
62
62
3
24
Matic Groselj
76
58
66
75
73
76
70
67
72
71
69
70
77
4
25
Andres Camilo Ardila
65
72
72
67
66
66
67
62
62
68
68
65
67
1
22
Goran Antonijevic
76
61
65
67
66
73
64
67
70
73
79
72
67
4
27
Santiago Buitrago
66
69
68
65
67
70
69
60
65
73
68
66
65
1
22
Kristjan Hocevar
66
68
68
61
65
64
63
54
66
70
66
69
62
1
22
Veljko Stojnic
69
65
65
68
69
71
68
56
67
69
71
65
70
1
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: A lot depends on how Beltran goes for sure, but Cedevita have better balance than last season and they shouldn’t once again be in a relegation battle like the last two seasons. Alarcon isn’t the greatest leader but he is a definite improvement to what the team had last season. The supporting cast behind both leaders is also better than last season. I expect to see Saber rarely used on the cobbles and think he’ll concentrate mainly on the sprints this time.
jandal: I hope you’re right about Saber and I’m sure redordead will do so - that Saber/Rowe type of mid 70s COB sprinter have almost exclusively fared better in uncobbled races than cobbled with a few exceptions. I think Alarcon is flying under the radar as he often did in PT - his best days are gone referring both to PCM version and his decline but he’s still a real force and should be a top climber still - whether there’s enough RDs in his calendar to avoid meaningful puncheur stages or ITTs (or TTTs to be honest with this team) in his stage races is a question I could probably answer if I actually did my research like a professional. Point is, he’s a fantastic acquisition and should, with Beltran, find them salvation easier than their previous second options have done. The supporting cast for their two top guns is very solid as you say, maybe it wouldn’t have hurt for them to add a cobbled leader or some other fourth option, but the quality of the top three and the solid points that come from gourmet domestiques like Gilanipoor, Pogacar and Gaudu should see them home regardless. Also, with less leaders but nice second and third tier riders they should be due some breakaway points (although I guess those are meant to happen less now).
Croatia14: One of the most intriguing teams. Getting Kudus would’ve meant that they are set for years, but a late outbid meant they had to go a different way. Ardila and Buitrago are insanely talented and two of the top10 talents of this year’s class on very cheap prices. Buying Gaudu and signing Alarcon was good value moves, their broken Saber trade may be to their benefit at the very end. However, this year might be difficult for various reasons.
First the team depth is better this year, but there are still too many riders on the bottom end that need race days. Hopefully they don’t interfere with the stars race days. Then there is Alarcon. Nobody knows what he can or can’t do. I expect him to do well and be planned away from Beltran completely. If race days allow it he might win the Tour of America, as he needs to be planned to have the least possible opposition to work his Acceleration and don’t be dropped early. Beltran himself had a bad year last year and also now has to face a similar rider in Kwiatkowski, so I don’t expect him to do better this year, even if he and Alarcon have (the much needed) better support that can do well in terms of depth scoring. Saber is shaky as always, but could benefit from the cobbles and sprinters demography that seems better fitting to his skillset this year. Gaudu, Pogacar, Groselj and Penko are intriguing u25-options, though the team should try to pair their TT talent with a top quality TT guy in the future and a proper TTT team. Interestingly enough the team is very well set for future success if it wasn’t for the leaders department. Now they have to hope their short term solutions allow them to search for a long term solution in PCT next year.
knockout: Last season, one of the lesser mentioned problems of Beltran was that he didn't have enough support on the hills. Fixing that problem was obviously a big priority of transfers for redordead as the team has signed a whole army of hills domestiques with David Gaudu as a fantastic super domestique as well as riders such as Zordan, Le Gac, Vysna and Blikra who fit very well to Beltran. This makes me think that Beltran’s scoring will probably stay on a similar level as last season despite the vastly improved hills startlists. The team still needed another big scorer to make relegation no option and Alarcon was the compromise option after earlier ideas fell through. He might not be the most versatile rider in the peloton but he proved to be very consistent last season, finishing 10th in his last three races before the decline: Tour de France, Criterium du Dauphine Libere and GP Liechtenstein. That makes me think that he will still deliver in PCT this season with the right race selection - and Beltran and Alarcon are two riders that seem like a good planning pair with widely different strengths. Add Saber who hopefully finds his TDF form a bit more often and U25 scoring by Pogacar (Dibs on a PT loan 2022!) and I think they will remain in PCT for another season - even if it could end up being very close this season. Going with a smaller squad could have made the job a lot easier.
Cedevita
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
6
8
5
2
3
8
Croatia14
6
8
4
1
1
6
jandal7
7
8
6
2
3
5
knockout
5
6
6
2
2
9
cycleYorkshire
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Hugh Carthy
71
81
75
67
77
76
78
56
60
69
65
65
65
x
27
Omar Fraile
69
76
72
79
74
76
72
58
60
66
79
65
79
x
31
Jay McCarthy
70
67
81
58
80
75
70
69
65
74
71
71
58
x
29
Gabriel Cullaigh
73
61
66
63
73
70
78
72
80
81
66
68
67
x
25
Luke Durbridge
73
58
67
81
73
74
70
53
62
64
68
61
81
x
30
Ivo Oliveira
70
70
72
79
76
72
67
61
70
72
68
68
79
x
25
Jonathan Bellis
74
67
77
61
79
70
67
57
73
74
76
67
61
x
33
Elia Viviani
78
60
66
79
71
77
74
60
71
70
73
64
79
x
32
Andrew Fenn
72
53
61
63
75
71
68
79
70
69
72
71
63
x
31
Tim Kennaugh
74
77
70
74
71
70
70
54
66
63
72
59
72
x
30
Matthew Holmes
70
72
75
61
71
73
69
61
67
71
71
68
62
x
28
Anders Skaarseth
67
75
72
70
70
71
73
55
61
67
58
69
68
x
26
Jocelyn Bar
76
54
69
60
73
70
77
67
76
74
71
62
60
x
33
Ethan Hayter
74
66
68
73
72
75
70
60
71
72
70
62
74
3
23
Matt Rowe
71
50
61
66
78
56
77
66
79
68
60
65
66
x
33
George Atkins
77
50
58
55
69
64
60
73
72
66
61
58
55
x
30
Ian Stannard
73
51
53
77
66
67
62
64
55
69
67
59
77
x
34
Andrew Tennant
74
60
66
75
71
71
72
51
64
63
75
64
74
x
34
Jacob Hennessy
69
61
65
61
67
68
66
67
73
73
60
66
65
4
25
Javier Romo
68
68
71
65
70
72
66
60
64
63
71
60
62
1
22
Dimitrios Christakos
68
69
67
66
66
69
66
58
61
66
70
69
69
1
22
Ben Turner
65
63
65
66
67
67
61
62
68
70
62
68
67
1
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Never thought they would give up Meintjes, but here we are! Despite this, I think the team had a great transfer season to go back to the PT at the first attempt. Definite Top3 contender for me. Will pick out Fraile as their top pick this season.
jandal: Think Abhi has it right here. They’ve done a consummate “PT relegaters go straight back up” job and I think they’ll do it comfortably. Carthy makes a perfect long-term regional hero for the team even if he’s not a top gun, Fraile continues in the PCT which is a good move for him since he’s always the top rider in his niche and fits well in this TTT set-up. Speaking of, the trademark train isn’t up to all of its old glory but it’s not far off, and with three high-scoring individuals in Durbridge, Fraile and Oliveira (plus Viviani even) to benefit from it it’s still an awesome terrain for them. Add in McCarthy, Cullaigh, Bellis and Kennaugh all as varying degrees of good options - this is a top title contender if all of these names can be maximised in planning, and even if they aren’t (as is normal) they should be back up in the PT in style.
Croatia14: Funnily enough in my very first thought I completely disagreed with you and had them even in relegation danger. But on a second note they should do enough. Durbridge and Fraile will probably be their best scorers as they have a great TTT squad and a history of knowing how to utilize that. Fraile has loads of upside races in PCT, riders like him did very well there in the past. There are a lot of good TTT trains in PCT, but none as top heavy as cycleYorkshire. Cullaigh is one of the rare PCT sprinters where I see a great support plan if they use Bar, Hayter and Viviani in their free race days. McCarthy will be underwhelming due to the competition, as he has no standouts (and that was why I first thought they might suffer), and also Fenn should only go to mandatory cobbled races. Carthy is just fine, your typical 4-10 finisher, and a similar piece to Meintjes so should be a good but not great scorer. I love the regional focus, even though it makes for some weaker riders on the bottom end. The team all in all, with how it’s built, is a very nice regional team that has all the chances. If they can get Cullaigh to work with the much better train than the opposition they could rise up far in the rankings, but if not I probably have them further down than many.
knockout: To me it looks obvious that cycleYorkshire will be in the promotion battle this year. They might lack the one big leader but they have a great depth of 2nd level riders - by my count they have six or seven riders that are each capable or expected to score 300 points or more so they are not reliant on the scoring of a single leader. I fully agree that McCarthy might struggle against the strong opposition this year but he might well be the team’s 4th best scorer behind Carthy, Durbridge and Fraile. If they had a second strong sprinter, a strong cobbler or two more 76+TT guys to fill the TTT team, they’d be an absolute lock to promote back immediately but they decided to carry Matt Rowe with their team for yet another season with them. Spoiler: He sucks and I will continue to mention it every year until he finally retires. But even with him: CycleYorkshire will be in the promotion battle.
cycleYorkshire
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
7
6
4
3
9
7
Croatia14
6
4
4
2
10
4
jandal7
7
5
5
2
9
6
knockout
7
5
5
3
9
6
Duolingo
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Bruno Borges
70
70
80
61
75
73
70
54
71
81
75
65
60
x
30
Robert Gesink
69
79
77
76
72
74
74
62
57
62
68
62
76
x
35
Kyeng Ho Min
68
79
76
66
75
77
70
63
62
66
69
69
66
x
25
Tosh Van der Sande
75
65
70
58
78
73
76
66
79
79
54
60
58
x
31
Rui Oliveira
70
67
76
70
77
72
72
66
75
78
65
67
71
x
25
Damien Howson
71
59
65
80
73
74
72
58
64
68
72
63
80
x
29
Yoeri Havik
73
56
64
56
74
68
75
76
79
76
60
64
66
x
30
Antonio Barbio
68
74
72
76
72
73
68
59
63
67
76
71
75
x
28
Hayden McCormick
70
66
76
65
74
71
70
53
73
73
67
59
65
x
27
Choon Huat Goh
69
74
76
70
74
74
74
62
62
68
79
65
69
x
31
Nicola Bagioli
69
70
75
64
74
71
71
60
69
75
75
66
65
4
26
Yoshimitsu Hiratsuka
66
76
73
62
72
73
75
50
50
59
62
60
62
x
33
Zoltan Sipos
69
68
70
76
75
73
70
55
61
64
70
67
77
x
30
Jakub Kaczmarek
72
68
75
75
74
75
72
69
63
69
68
67
76
x
28
Tim Merlier
73
56
68
58
72
72
64
75
78
74
63
72
60
x
29
Mark Christian
73
63
69
77
72
71
70
59
68
72
76
71
75
x
31
Nikita Razumov
72
63
69
77
74
70
71
56
64
66
69
65
77
4
25
Elias Abou Rachid
69
73
69
72
71
72
74
58
62
68
69
66
71
4
26
Rasmus Quaade
71
54
63
78
72
70
65
59
61
63
66
60
76
x
31
Shane Archbold
73
58
62
77
72
71
70
60
73
75
68
66
67
x
32
Norman Vahtra
68
58
68
55
70
69
68
70
72
71
66
65
55
2
25
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Duolingo has a solid team, with solid leaders in all terrains, with an exceptional TTT team. However, the other terrains do not really have a top point-scorer which might mean once again falling short of the promotion spots. Gesink is still as useful as they come, albeit his wage is somewhat high for his declining stats, while the recently maxed Min is an exciting prospect to look forward to. Borges has overperformed regularly in the PCT but with the puncher field being as it is, he might just get crowded out and the puncher depth will be of no use at all.
jandal: Solid is a really great word for Duolingo Abhi - they’ve been solid for a while now and that’s very nice and they have some nice riders but as you say, it doesn’t get them back where they belong in the PT. With Gesink declining and Borges’ competition increasing it could look like a backwards step… and it probably is. However the hill depth could come up handy and the RES and TT stats suggest some deep scoring all-around, while Min will rarely win white jerseys but should still gather a fair amount of points that way. Van der Sande is also a great addition and I’m interested in what Merlier can do. Maybe a team hurt by the lesser chances for attackers in PCM20?
Croatia14: Yes, the TTT team is exceptional, but for whom? You don’t want Howson to be a leader, and would such a train have been necessary for Gesink? I actually think Gesink will be in major trouble this year, he doesn’t look as good as oldie-compatriot Spilak and I’m already not a fan of his chances this year. At least Gesink and Min have 97 race days between them, so having a 79 climber in every race with mountains is a good prospect. Borges is good, but I honestly don’t see the good hill train for him. Borges has his Acc as a weapon to finish off races, but if he can’t get to the finish line with the best I see this team in relegation danger despite the TTT depth and solid leaders, just because I miss the big scorer almost all other teams have.
knockout: It’s difficult for me to write about Duolingo this season. The team looks boringly solid everywhere but there is nothing that excites me. Okay, the TTT team is fantastic but outside of that it’s hard to find things that stand out positively or negatively. The squad looks like a midtable squad to me but how much of that is down to Gesink’s name value?
Duolingo
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
7
6
3
3
7
5
Croatia14
5
7
3
2
6
4
jandal7
6
7
4
3
8
4
knockout
6
6
4
2
6
6
Eurosport x GCN
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Adam Blythe
76
54
66
68
76
71
77
82
76
73
72
72
71
x
32
Richard Carapaz
69
80
71
72
71
76
77
50
56
65
71
61
72
x
28
Kenji Itami
74
62
60
62
70
66
76
63
79
81
50
52
62
x
33
Giacomo Nizzolo
73
54
64
57
70
67
71
57
80
79
62
64
66
x
32
Maurice Schreurs
69
68
80
66
74
70
69
61
70
72
68
65
65
x
33
Ryan Gibbons
75
59
65
67
73
72
73
60
78
78
65
68
72
x
27
Clenne Moulingui
74
53
71
52
71
71
53
78
65
68
64
71
52
x
26
Jarlinson Pantano
65
78
70
53
72
73
72
50
50
67
62
67
53
x
33
Alex Dowsett
69
64
79
63
73
68
65
52
65
70
74
62
62
x
33
Dan McLay
73
56
67
55
74
72
79
72
77
76
62
66
55
x
29
Jasper Stuyven
70
63
77
58
75
67
68
62
66
74
79
69
58
x
29
Mikel Landa
65
69
78
57
70
69
70
50
61
69
74
67
57
x
32
Michael Cuming
70
74
74
72
74
70
71
58
64
69
74
63
72
x
31
Conor Dunne
66
74
74
69
71
72
73
70
62
69
74
69
69
x
29
Jon Ander Insausti
70
53
64
66
76
73
64
77
57
66
66
70
66
x
29
Kaden Groves
71
61
70
64
72
70
73
65
75
75
64
66
68
3
23
John Archibald
70
61
64
76
69
72
62
55
60
67
64
55
75
x
31
Jonas Rutsch
73
63
67
61
72
72
67
71
65
67
69
68
66
3
23
Max Stedman
68
66
71
62
66
70
66
61
70
71
64
62
66
3
25
Owain Doull
72
59
65
73
71
70
68
71
73
73
63
65
75
x
28
Simon Carr
66
68
72
56
70
69
69
55
58
69
62
58
57
3
23
Morten Hulgaard
68
64
68
71
70
68
67
58
65
65
65
66
70
3
23
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Blythe was an amazing signing but unluckily for them, the presence of both Trentin and Stallaert in the division means that they cannot expect a Summerhill 2019 and 2020 like dominance. Just how well Blythe does could be the difference between safety and the drop as the leaders in the other terrains are a couple of notches below being bankable in every race.
jandal: I was about to make a joke about this team sounding like a hot fashion collaboration, but then I realised this is the_hoyle so that’s exactly what it is. This team has somehow managed to make a hill train comprised of almost all of my least favourite puncheurs so I have to throw some hate their way for that. Severe RES and ACC deficiency will also get some anti-you bias from me and so I don’t see their bottom half overperforming at all. Blythe will have to turn up big and take the cobbles by the horns, while Carapaz, Itami, Nizzolo and Schreurs have to be the best of the average/boring in their terrains.
Croatia14: Average/boring is a nice way to say ugly. Neither Carapaz nor Schreurs or Nizzolo should do really well to be honest, they all look like your grandpa in a beauty contest compared to others on their terrain. Blythe is what should keep the team over the line, but can he? I think cobbles will be wide open, but Blythe has the upside that he’ll be a good scorer in PTHC cobbles as well, which is very important for a cobbles/hills leader in PCT. While his support is okay at best, he should score significantly. The team depth looks okay on first glance, but on second thought I don’t see a single rider that will do well on a PCT point-scale context besides Moulingui. Looking at main stats they should be safe, secondary stats speak a different language though. Also I absolutely love the national focus and african touch.
knockout: A lot has been talked about Blythe already as he is easily the most exciting rider in this squad and I'm glad he found the perfect new home. But outside of him, the team doesn't have many sure scorers. Carapaz looks solid but not great - potentially the Tour of America might be a necessary bet for him? Especially as the team could also send one of their sprinters to the race too: Itami and Nizzolo are two solid sprinters but Itami should still be the stronger one of them which could make planning a bit challenging. For the hills, I have to quote jandal’s “a hill train comprised of almost all of my least favourite puncheurs” and I'm not particularly confident that they will deliver well enough to avoid relegation.
knockout: It’s hard to look at the squad and believe that this was a PT team just last season. The most exciting about this team is the signing of Eddie Dunbar who asked for half the Indonesian gold production, the first born of the team manager and an iPhone 15 during free agency and got it all because he might be trainable into a GT winner with the humble training expense of 13,150,000 over the next years - might being the key word here. Howard is another strong signing - he actually accepted a very reasonable wage. Warchol and Jensen are the other two potential scorers but Warchol doesn't inspire much confidence while the latter got overshadowed by about 13 million better puncheurs who just joined the PCT. With all of that, Indosat has to hope that Howard and Dunbar will deliver big times this season - otherwise we might see a historic back-to-back relegation this season.
AbhishekLFC: I can understand where they were trying to go with their transfer dealings, but 815k for Dunbar, who can probably target 3-5 races for the moment, is taking it too far. Howard was a good signing, Jensen also has a decent wage, although I doubt he gets into the Top 10 scoring punchers this season, while Warchol’s training also made sense. Having said that, Indosat are basically looking towards major overperformances from three or four of the riders just mentioned, which is probably a bridge too far.
jandal: Eddie Dunbar for 815k sounds like the kind of thing I would do and I’m not sure I’m saying that in an entirely supportive way. Given that a lot of their riders further down the order are sprinters and time trialists, often lacking severely in ACC, I have doubts over how many of them can overperform this year, if any. So it really is on the shoulders of their top six to carry them home here.
Croatia14: I share your concerns. But with Dunbar's scoring last year as an unmaxed rider (!!) and still being u25-eligible he’ll again have an awesome season and we undervalue him again. Indosat desperately needed to rebuild, and with Dunbar, the training of Warchol and Jensen they did a good job in turning around. Due to the lack of competition Howard is a great signing, but I have questions about the leadout he’ll surely have to have, cause I don’t see any fitting pieces. Could be a tough season for Indosat, as I also don’t like the composition of the support for any of their leaders. Indosat took risks with this necessary rebuild, and if they survive the PCT sea of sharks they can pat themselves on the back. If not, then they might find themselves in shambles and Dunbar was a very costly rental.
Indosat - Ooredoo
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
4
3
7
0
4
5
Croatia14
4
4
7
0
2
6
jandal7
4
4
6
0
4
5
knockout
3
4
6
0
3
6
Jura - Fiat
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Nairo Quintana
68
82
74
71
77
76
76
52
51
66
73
61
71
x
31
Theo Reinhardt
71
57
67
67
73
66
78
62
79
84
51
62
67
x
31
Gianni Moscon
71
73
79
66
76
77
75
53
59
73
71
69
70
x
27
Fausto Masnada
71
77
76
73
76
75
73
60
63
73
69
71
70
x
28
Thomas Boudat
73
51
68
62
71
74
78
58
79
78
62
66
78
x
27
Fabian Lienhard
73
66
75
66
77
72
69
55
73
76
77
69
70
x
27
Hermann Pernsteiner
65
75
77
61
73
71
72
63
61
72
69
77
64
x
31
Mikiel Habtom
75
53
61
64
75
75
80
68
77
78
60
63
67
x
30
Cyrile Thiery
72
70
74
66
73
73
70
60
72
73
77
74
65
x
31
Andrea Manfredi
69
78
65
65
68
73
72
54
62
73
77
73
65
x
29
Manuel Stocker
75
60
65
69
71
73
76
59
76
77
65
65
71
x
29
Mirco Saggiorato
67
76
72
65
70
72
71
50
57
70
70
65
65
x
33
Alfredo Balloni
73
60
66
78
67
71
68
54
63
67
72
64
78
x
32
Leonardo Basso
73
67
72
72
78
73
73
73
71
69
62
69
72
x
28
Emmanuel Morin
69
63
74
63
72
71
66
63
68
73
64
66
65
3
26
Mauro Schmid
71
70
71
67
69
74
69
69
69
72
71
73
65
1
22
Benedikt Mundle
79
59
65
55
69
73
67
62
59
69
80
72
55
x
30
Szymon Rekita
71
56
61
77
68
71
71
62
69
69
62
73
76
4
27
Aaron Van Poucke
67
72
72
63
67
70
65
60
67
71
71
66
65
3
23
Stefan Bissegger
71
66
67
73
69
73
68
60
70
71
64
70
72
3
23
Brent Van Moer
72
60
68
74
72
73
66
69
58
65
65
67
74
3
23
Jason Tesson
68
63
68
60
70
69
64
60
69
71
63
65
60
1
23
Alexys Brunel
72
64
69
73
68
73
69
66
61
64
67
65
73
3
23
Giorgi Tediashvili
68
66
67
65
68
71
70
67
64
70
69
65
65
1
22
Talking Points
knockout: When Jura manager Fabianski recently looked at last season’s predictions, he noticed that this very ‘expert’ is the least accurate with his predictions for the PCT division and he surely will hope that the same happens next year as i see a hard season ahead of the team. The hope of the team rests mostly on Quintana to bring the scoring. But Quintana lacks the niche where he really is a podium contender - he is not explosive enough or strong enough on the TT bike to get an upside over his rivals. So a lot of his scoring will depend on whether the team can get him into the right races with clever race planning. Outside of him, the team has multiple riders with potential to overperform as all of Moscon, Masnada and once again Reinhardt could turn out to be the second strong scorer the team will need to survive. They have a realistic chance to survive but i think it will be an uphill battle - literally and figuratively.
Croatia14: Okay let’s face it first: Quintana is a shit leader. With no other 80-main-stat guy I’d normally say they’re doomed, and probably favourite to go down. But they also have loads of undervalued riders. Moscon, Masnada and Reinhardt can be great, especially Reinhardt seems to use his Acc very well in the new game. The others look good as well, though there are several better versions of Masnada and Moscon floating around and the depth is more of an attacking one which does not fit the game properly. Looking at the opponents it would not surprise me if Jura-Fiat misses the cut. But with Schmid as their number one target this year, who has a great future ahead, and Masnada, Moscon, Reinhardt and the regional core around it, Jura has a good young base for the future - no matter if it’s PCT or (probably more likely) CT.
jandal: I don’t like Quintana either but I doubt he’ll be bad strictly speaking - outdone by many riders under his MO stat but still solid enough to score well at all his RDs especially with that decent TT stat. Us four will always be too negative about a guy like him, he’s a solid leader but maybe not when he has to put a team on his shoulders in the relegation scrap. I have no idea what to think of Reinhardt except that I want to watch him and Van Staeyen have drag races as a regular series throughout the year. I agree with Croatia’s assessment of the depth (especially as I’d be foolish to overrule him on PCM20 factors influencing their attackers since I’ve never touched the game) but surely guys like Lienhard and Thiery can have some fun. A really really likeable bunch that I hope to see do well and have some fun - but I won’t hold my breath for consistent points. At least they’ll look good to stick with this set-up broadly in the CT if it does come to that.
AbhishekLFC: Not very sure how to rank them to be honest. Moscon was regularly challenging, and often beating, Kelderman last season, but the level of competition just went up a few folds, and he might get lost in the crowd. He might also pull a Turgis, so it’s a hard one to call. Quintana should be solid without pulling any miracles, as has become his norm in the past couple of seasons. The lower competition in the mountains should help as well. A lot perhaps depends on Reinhardt and whether he can build on his ability to mix it up with much higher statted sprinters, as he had shown last season. Unfortunately, they only have Masnada besides this, who’s good no doubt, but not sure he can do enough to pull them up to safety. A lot depends on those front three to determine which division they’ll be in next season.
Jura - Fiat
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
7
5
4
1
3
3
Croatia14
7
3
3
0
2
4
jandal7
8
4
4
1
2
3
knockout
8
4
4
1
2
4
Kraftwerk Man Machine
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Nikias Arndt
71
79
76
56
77
76
72
63
71
75
61
64
56
x
30
Rick Zabel
74
60
69
55
74
70
79
65
81
79
66
52
55
x
28
David Boily
67
76
78
70
72
72
69
56
68
74
69
79
61
x
31
Dominik Nerz
70
80
72
73
75
72
74
56
64
68
65
60
73
x
32
Marco Haller
72
61
65
56
72
71
76
58
80
79
66
64
71
x
30
Pello Bilbao
71
67
79
65
77
71
71
51
71
75
67
66
61
x
31
Michel Koch
66
77
73
68
69
74
74
51
67
76
57
61
70
x
30
Arvin Moazemi
67
73
78
69
72
72
75
62
65
73
65
63
67
x
31
Josip Rumac
71
72
75
64
72
70
68
55
74
76
66
69
66
x
27
Willi Willwohl
73
53
64
56
71
67
78
65
79
78
61
64
56
x
27
Eugert Zhupa
75
56
67
65
78
74
67
77
74
68
67
59
65
x
31
Marcel Kittel
74
54
63
80
73
69
66
56
59
72
71
63
80
x
33
Teodoro Costagli
62
78
70
69
69
70
75
51
50
66
75
66
69
x
33
Sasu Helme
69
75
74
69
71
72
74
62
60
76
73
67
69
x
25
Gennadiy Tatarinov
69
75
74
63
71
71
68
57
65
73
76
63
63
x
30
Florian Scheit
66
72
76
58
72
71
69
50
64
71
77
66
58
x
30
Sang Hong Park
72
61
72
67
73
70
73
66
75
76
61
67
70
x
32
Sachin Dulanjana
67
74
72
74
75
71
77
63
62
61
60
75
75
x
26
Jan Dieteren
67
70
77
58
75
70
68
51
63
66
80
73
58
x
28
Jetse Bol
75
68
76
68
71
70
74
62
62
67
73
64
68
x
32
Burr Ho
68
73
73
73
68
73
71
61
65
71
65
66
71
x
29
Max Walsleben
72
59
67
67
72
68
61
74
68
70
70
72
70
x
31
Gabor Kasa
70
71
72
74
74
70
71
58
63
66
67
65
74
x
32
Klemen Stimulak
73
59
66
77
71
72
69
57
72
74
65
61
66
x
31
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Think they stuck to their tactic from last season of having their depth do the talking. Arndt, Boily and Zabel were good signings in that regard. However, I think a few teams might have got a similar idea this season, so it remains to be seen whether it works as well as last time. In particular, the ToA strategy might not be as lucrative this time, in my opinion at least.
Croatia14: Every year I think: Damn, can a team this top-thin (is that the opposite to top-heavy?!) avoid relegation? And every year I predict them lower than they finish. It’s depth scoring (we clash on 2-3 50k riders in FA biddings every year, and every time D2B ends up getting them cause he’s willing to pay a little more), team points, and with similarly good leaders in every race you automatically find the holy grail in some of those. Arndt is a great addition that can be worked to perfection on a PCT schedule, and his sprint/acc might be very handy in mountain classics. Zabel has disappointed in the past but I see him thriving in Kraftwerk-colours, Nerz and Haller will find their races again (even if I expect ToA to have a much stronger startlist this year). Expect Kraftwerk to rack up points in all the ugly races and find themselves surprising me once more, even though I again have them as a lower-half of the table team.
knockout: New season, same old Kraftwerk. Lots of depth, no unmaxed riders and paying big transfer fees for mediocre German leaders - some things never change. I don’t think that the outcome will change a lot either as they seem to be too weak to promote and too strong to be at risk of relegation so they will likely end up somewhere in between once again.
jandal: Kraftwerk are a team that has grown on me the last couple of years in terms of how they execute their plans - fitting since they’ve always been better than my team up to last year that I only now get it. Except for 2018 strangely where I got it right - I guess I had a sudden moment of realisation then! And this is hard not to sound like I’m criticising because I’m really not - as said they’ve beat me 4/5 seasons since we both joined in the class of 2016 and they’re not putting in no effort so much as sticking to their style as knockout said, D2B does it well and gets the results, and I would not be shocked if this style can be adapted to promotion any year coming as we’ve seen with other teams that take their time finding that PCT solidity and then promoting - think cycleYorkshire, Xero or MOL who all took similar lengths of time establishing their style and core before adding the finishing touches.
Despite three new riders at the top it’s nevertheless still that same warm feeling to look at the Kraftwerk roster, they seem to fit so well I’m surprised they weren’t already on the roster. You know that, except for the Tour of America probably, they’ll rarely be the headliners, but they’ll always be those classy as hell red jerseys with the black tie mixing it up in the points positions in every race they enter. If I were a different kind of analyst (if I can be so ridiculous as to call what I do here analysis) I could probably break down what they have done but I’m not sure I can. Walsleben aside, every rider has a purpose, every rider has a quality and will bring in points, and they’ll find their way home as they always do. However the question for me is: with no unmaxed riders here or out on loan, and the main cast all within the latter half of their prime, when do we trim a bit of the fat and pull the trigger on a big move or two to shoot for promotion? Easier said than done obviously, but with so much work put into making the set-up this good, I think it would be a shame if this cast and this style never took that next step.
Kraftwerk
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
6
4
6
2
5
3
Croatia14
6
4
5
1
4
5
jandal7
6
5
5
2
4
3
knockout
7
5
5
2
5
3
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Sam Oomen
71
81
75
74
78
77
78
56
64
69
72
68
77
x
26
Niccolo Bonifazio
79
50
66
55
68
75
71
56
80
80
58
72
70
x
28
Domen Novak
68
79
77
66
74
76
77
61
64
76
73
75
64
x
26
Kenneth Vanbilsen
78
50
69
63
80
74
75
80
72
71
72
61
63
x
31
Laurens De Plus
72
76
79
64
74
73
71
57
60
72
68
66
65
x
26
Manuel Senni
71
77
73
74
76
79
76
59
66
72
66
73
74
x
29
Patrick Gamper
75
62
66
74
75
76
68
76
63
71
72
72
74
4
24
Jakub Mareczko
74
53
61
57
71
73
79
50
78
77
61
66
75
x
27
Szymon Sajnok
72
61
65
76
69
74
69
63
72
71
62
70
77
4
24
Louis Verhelst
71
56
73
65
72
69
68
74
62
68
67
71
65
x
31
Jenthe Biermans
77
55
61
64
71
74
65
71
66
67
77
69
66
x
26
Alessandro Fedeli
67
71
73
62
71
69
64
57
64
70
66
65
64
4
25
Giovanni Aleotti
71
66
70
68
71
70
67
62
65
71
67
69
67
1
22
Wout Van Aert
75
63
66
70
72
73
72
68
64
68
69
75
79
x
27
Maxim Van Gils
68
69
68
59
67
71
68
60
68
70
65
68
59
1
22
Dilmurdjon Siddikov
71
62
64
72
72
72
69
68
65
66
76
71
72
3
24
Aaron Verwilst
72
65
65
66
67
69
64
68
63
65
72
63
66
3
24
Alessandro Covi
64
68
70
61
67
67
64
60
64
63
61
62
62
2
23
Sasha Weemaes
69
60
61
70
71
67
63
55
70
70
67
63
70
2
23
Viktor Potocki
67
64
66
67
68
69
67
52
65
67
67
71
67
1
22
Talking Points
knockout: Lierse was in a very weird spot before the transfer season. They already had a young squad together featuring two outstanding young riders that can be absolute world class with some training and are young enough to keep them as the core riders of a squad for half a decade. However, the squad just didn’t click with each other. Gaviria had a skill set that gives him a higher potential than any other sprinter in today’s world but at his current stats he was a terrible scoring per wage value which ultimately gives just two good options: Training or selling. Considering that the team also has the less talented Bonifazio on a much more reasonable wage, I'd consider a trade for Novak a decent decision. Novak doesn't have the potential to ever step into elite levels but he should be very good at PCT levels and Bonifazio should improve on his scoring as the focus point of the sprint planning.
However, the team is not built to support both Oomen and Novak. Assuming that De Plus is planned as somewhat of a full-time leader on the “mandatory” hilly races, that leaves just Senni to support Oomen on his 40 RDs and Novak on his 45 RDs. Which demands some proper Steiner maths to work out if you don’t want to have Fedeli, most known for getting dropped from every Giro 2020 breakaway, lvl 2 rider Alessandro Covi and lvl 1 rider Maxim Van Gils as key domestiques for the leader duo.
Croatia14: As a former owner of Novak I have to respectfully disagree with the verdict on Novak, I think he could become a better version of Beltran with the right training and thus become a good PT rider. Apart from that I see your points though. For Bonifazio it’s all about the AI finally understanding that he’s a sprinter and not a rouleur. With Gaviria gone he’ll have all the right races and massive upside.
Lierse are in a weird spot though where everything can happen. They will probably score (almost) nothing on classic hill races and should avoid them. As Bonifazio is unreliable and Vanbilsen kinda overtaken, they should focus on the mountain races (I don’t think lacking support will hurt a lot due to them more likely being P4-7 riders than top favourites), which sounds weird given their past. Still, they can be stellar in any race, and should also field a Tour of America team that can contest for the win. With Gamper as a stellar C2 rider and upside in the PTHC mountain and cobbled races and even sprints I think they are an unusual team that is very hard to predict, but it’s more likely promotion than relegation to me even if on paper they may got weaker. But having lost (almost) all u25-point chances they may fade very quickly if they got planning wrong. At the end Lierse depends, more than almost all others, on smart planning.
jandal: The word that springs to mind here, weirdly, is “compact”. A small roster and a very top-heavy team with great quality leaders, a couple of solid second-stringers, a few handy maxed guys and then over half the team which don’t provide much support, which leads to the gaps in planning knockout mentioned. I really wish Bonifazio is treated well in PCM20 as the sole sprint leader, that statline is the making of a top 50 gun at least and if we can start to consider him as such rather than glazing over his name on the roster this team looks completely different to me - however that’s all up in the air. However I’m going to be positive and cautiously consider him an asset.
It’s hard to know what stage Lierse is in after their two huge outgoings - clearly this off-season was a big step to where they want to be but in the manager’s mind it’s not a complete process I would guess. Similar to Kraftwerk I think they’re a well-run team that will be able to translate a style they’ve made to achieve very good things already to take them to the top of the division. With the guys they’ve brought through previously maxed and now also past U25 scoring it could be “go now” in 2022, or they wait until a bit more training and moving and shaking can be done, or wait until they’re 28-30 but then they’ve got Aleotti, Van Gils and Covi all maxed and more reshuffling and new talents coming through. All of those are fair options but none of them need to be taken or committed too - I’m overthinking it for the sake of content. I think they’re alright just doing themselves - in fact worse managers with less of a plan have stumbled into great things just chilling as it seems they might be this year. I really like this set-up for this season and the future. Oomen is quality, Vanbilsen is still a solid option, Novak is so cool, Bonifazio could be so cool, Senni has sexy RES and De Plus, Gamper, Mareczko et al all have their quality even if the MO focus isn’t there to back up their top guns. Still, sometimes a train is overrated and some mavericks can come together to do some really great things and fun times until Lierse go for the big push - and when they do, we all better watch out.
AbhishekLFC: Think they did a great job replacing the hot potato that was Gaviria. He really should find the PT more suitable. Oomen was already great and that training puts near the top of the terrain. Noval is an excellent capture as well, and should be a division topping 'secondary' leader. Lierse have taken steps to move away from being a relegation threatened team about three seasons ago to one that is now on the fringes of challenging for promotion.
Lierse SK
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
8
3
3
7
1
4
Croatia14
9
2
3
6
1
4
jandal7
8
3
4
7
2
2
knockout
9
3
3
6
1
5
Los Pollos Hermanos
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Simon Spilak
68
81
78
73
74
75
72
66
63
68
67
64
73
x
35
Marlen Zmorka
74
61
66
82
74
75
72
61
62
70
67
60
82
x
28
Matti Manninen
74
65
66
69
71
75
77
58
81
80
70
71
76
x
29
Roman Maksimov
71
52
59
68
68
67
72
57
80
82
58
63
68
x
33
Carlos A. Manarelli
72
53
59
57
71
65
73
61
79
79
57
66
57
x
32
Daniel Munoz
66
77
71
66
71
71
72
55
56
69
68
61
58
4
25
Murilo Affonso
69
76
72
73
72
70
74
56
54
68
74
53
73
x
30
Wataru Mutsumine
69
69
77
64
73
70
68
58
63
71
64
70
64
x
29
Luca Sterbini
68
56
66
78
74
73
67
63
57
67
71
65
78
x
29
Alain Quispe
80
52
52
61
62
60
64
53
66
73
84
55
61
4
27
Richard Laningo Laizer
70
52
58
77
70
71
69
68
65
70
69
69
76
x
32
Stelly Robert
66
56
59
78
64
68
66
56
54
53
73
69
78
x
33
Dion Beukeboom
73
56
64
76
71
69
65
61
60
70
77
63
76
x
32
Jose Gerardo Ulloa
69
66
69
63
69
69
69
73
65
67
67
64
64
3
25
Oumaru Minoungou
69
59
64
63
71
68
68
74
68
66
76
59
65
x
33
Alejandro Osorio
67
72
69
68
69
68
69
55
56
66
61
63
64
3
23
Robinson Steven Ruiz
74
66
66
62
70
68
65
64
71
72
63
69
64
3
23
Luis Enrique Nolasco
64
71
67
67
68
66
68
52
59
68
72
67
65
1
24
Iver Johan Knotten
68
61
61
74
68
67
68
58
59
60
64
66
70
3
23
J. Alexander Cepeda
67
69
67
62
68
67
64
57
60
67
61
59
61
2
23
Alex Julajuj
66
67
67
68
68
68
65
55
60
67
64
69
68
1
23
Guillermo Beltran
67
67
68
63
67
68
64
53
62
62
62
68
61
1
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: A team signing Spilak, Manninen and Zmorka having just promoted is a great transfer window! It is another story that they don’t have much support, albeit their TTT outfit is as competitive as it comes. Not sure the signing of Maksimov was necessary, as that wage could’ve got another Spilak domestique. They will definitely need their top three to be on top form, with Manninen having to get around 75% of last year’s haul to get Los Pollos into a comfortable position.
knockout: Looking at the Los Pollos Hermanos squad there is one key question: Is Manninen really that good or was it an absolute fluke of a season? Zmorka and Spilak are two great signings for the team that will deliver for sure and both of them have presented a schedule that should guarantee a good season for them. However, Manninen is a huge question mark. The roster is quite thin in supporting each of their team leaders but that’s particularly true for the Manninen support. My best guess is that the idea is to send him train surfing with Quispe, Beukeboom, Ruiz and a bunch of shitty talents as support but whether that can lead to results any close to last season is quite doubtful. This makes Manninen one of the riders with the widest reach of possible scoring in the entire division and if he hits either extreme, he could flush the team either into the single digit positions or - due to the lack of depth scoring options - into the relegation fight.
Croatia14: I can understand the problem you have with Manninen (and the Maksimov-signing), but I think it was a smart move. 400k is not that often in a pretty weak sprinters class. Though he might even suffer from the weaker division, as he absolutely needs to avoid having a train. I expect Manninen in all the stacked races including PTHC, while Maksimov would be a great choice for a Tour of America I am absolutely sure they’ll attend with their team demography.
Interesting might be the discussion about the choice of support riders. I think they did the right thing focusing on TTT, eventhough I hate every single one of those other TTT guys. But with aggressive 50k riders probably far less useful I love the approach of focussing on their best rider. Zmorka should score well, the question is whether Spilak can do that too. He’s lucky that the climbers in the division are not that great, but he won’t be able to use his hill really in this stacked division and low Acc, so I think he’ll look better than he will perform (sadly). Focussing on a TTT for Zmorka ment achieving one of the key points needed for survival, now planning their sprinters smart and without a need for a train is the other key. As knockout outlined: This will determine the wide range of possible outcomes for our favourite chicken supplier.
jandal: I think I almost agree with Croatia on most of this here - Spilak unfortunately won’t be as nice as he very much still looks after his third decline, but I think he should be able to (I know the schedule is out for him but I’ve forgotten most of it) take advantage of his HI and TT in multiple races such as California and Pologne where he’ll look a top rider if the biggest names forego them as they have tended to do recently. But overall yes he’s not a slam dunk but I think he is a very good scorer - however Marlen Zmorka is a great one with a decent TTT train. As I said in the sprint section I’m the last guy to ask about whether or not Matti Manninen will be able to come even close to his incredible 2020 but I think he should still be a very good third option on a team that needs their leaders to bring home as many points as they can and more, with a very high concentration of their points coming from the top three or four depending how Maksimov is, and then the TTT train. The focus on bringing in talents rather than more options, domestiques or breakaway guns is admirable for a promoting team and I think they have done enough work at the top with three truly excellent signings to ensure it doesn’t backfire on them.
jandal If my Facebook is anything to go by, middle-aged people fucking love Minions, so that explains the riders who have decided to go into business with the little yellow pricks for this season. Training Zepuntke is the definition of polishing a turd, but cut them some slack guys, when every other leader is declining both physically and mentally and thus ineligible for training, what else was the manager supposed to do with that money? Buy a better cobbler?
However on the whole it’s a solid mid-table team as always, and the lack of rankings excitement either way should do wonders for their leader’s pacemakers - and I’m not talking about their domestiques. Uran has another decline but is still solid with able support, EBH is a legend and I’ve disrespected him way too much here, Vesely was a standout last year and if he can front up to/avoid the PT-standard sprinters new to the division I suppose he can be again, whilst maybe with some luck Zepuntke can crack the top 80 now he’s trained?
Croatia14: The Minions are always a team that is slightly avoiding the flashlight, as they pride themselves in a “less flashy” depth approach. They do their planning fine every year, and looking at the team it screams mid-table again. However: Are Boasson Hagen and Uran still as good as they look? Hagen is not better than Kinoshita, I can’t really see a scenario in a race where he wins. Uran needs the time trial heavy stage races, but then the other stage racers are all more stage racers than attacking climbers. Vesely, Zepuntke and Kalaba can score big, but they can also be low-level scorers with less luck. The TTT team is nice, but they lack the top-end rider TTTer to support, going for Zmorka instead of Boasson Hagen f.e. would’ve been massive with that squad long term. Now they are of less use besides supporting Uran and trying to do damage. Sure, they have some nice depth riders, but can they really add a lot on the PCT calendar? They have depth, but possibly at all the wrong places. It’s probably not a popular verdict, but I think they have more to fear than to gain this season. Missed opportunity & time for a rebuild next year?
knockout: I think the team has a lot of riders that could be described as “high floor, low ceiling” riders. Riders like Uran, Zepuntke or Vesely are very unlikely to be dominant riders in their races but they are almost guaranteed to score decently wherever they go - hard to say that about any sprinter but i don't think there are many sprinters that fit the description better than Vesely. Boasson Hagen is obviously the new star signing and I’m sure he will be victorious some time during the hills lottery but he will rarely if ever be the top favourite.
AbhishekLFC: A declining Uran and Hagen as PCT leaders seem fine at the first look. The problem is that there are a lot of climbers similar to Uran and a lot of punchers having better support stats than Hagen! Those two should still pick up enough points in what is probably their last seasons near the top of the pile in their respective terrains. The Zepuntke training should bode them well, and he should become a regular Top 5 contender in the cobbles this season. I like Vesely and Kalaba, and both should be a good sprint double act for the PCT. All in all, they remind me of a slightly better version of Binance, and they should be in the 10th to 15th range in the PCT.
Minions
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
6
8
5
6
4
4
Croatia14
4
8
5
6
2
3
jandal7
6
8
6
6
5
2
knockout
5
9
5
5
3
5
Philips - Force India
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Wilco Kelderman
70
71
82
70
80
75
73
62
67
72
77
71
70
x
30
Pierre Paolo Penasa
70
80
74
70
75
72
77
50
57
76
68
64
70
x
30
Tom Van Asbroeck
75
53
71
66
75
72
79
74
80
78
74
68
74
x
31
Tom David
74
62
75
65
76
74
70
78
70
73
68
70
65
x
31
Andrew Talansky
70
78
76
71
74
75
76
55
58
68
62
65
71
x
33
Dylan Teuns
68
75
78
64
73
73
76
50
66
72
70
65
60
x
29
Cristian Raileanu
66
77
77
63
74
73
76
56
59
70
69
67
65
x
28
Tomas Paprstka
75
62
69
62
74
70
68
75
70
72
69
78
63
x
29
Roy Jans
76
53
74
63
74
73
65
68
74
74
68
70
66
x
31
Charles Anguilet
65
76
74
63
69
71
73
50
57
64
71
60
63
x
32
Tom Dumoulin
71
59
68
78
75
76
70
52
65
67
66
60
78
x
31
Jasper Bovenhuis
73
58
71
59
74
70
72
74
62
68
79
65
59
x
30
Riccardo Zoidl
68
74
73
75
69
66
70
55
60
67
74
58
71
x
33
Joonas Henttala
66
74
68
73
73
72
72
50
60
67
63
71
73
x
30
Victor Lafay
65
72
72
62
70
70
70
62
62
70
74
66
60
3
25
Ide Schelling
70
72
69
66
72
71
68
63
62
66
71
66
68
3
23
Daniel Moricz
70
58
66
65
70
68
66
72
64
63
75
64
65
3
25
Jhojan Garcia
67
69
68
65
70
70
67
55
63
69
60
62
64
2
23
Luka Sagadin
69
68
68
61
68
68
66
54
66
68
70
68
62
1
22
Gijs Leemreize
65
69
68
63
66
69
66
60
62
66
69
65
63
1
22
Marten Kooistra
69
59
64
58
68
66
57
66
70
70
61
62
63
1
24
Talking Points
Croatia14: Good conglomerate mate got a little screwed over in transfers, but managed to recover late with Penasa and David as nice additions. I do not like Kelderman as a leader (Boasson Hagen syndrome) and fear that he won’t score a lot more than in their relegation season. Without a big time leader apart from that I thought it would be very difficult. But on second thought, the secondary leaders fit this year's PCT pretty perfectly. As the PCT’s climbers demography is a stage racers one, an acceleration climber has space to exploit in the PCT and do better than previously. Also van Asbroeck might fit the loss of a couple of power sprinters in the division, though a similar rider type in Saber didn’t work for Philips last time. David might be a great addition and fits PCT much better than PT. I also like Talansky, Teuns and Raileanu, as all three of them are good enough to score (also as secondary leaders) without relying on breakaways. This secondary leader depth might keep them alive this year despite my distrust in their huge leader. An example of how the shift of the game from benefitting squad depth to (secondary) leader depth may open as an opportunity for teams that did not succeed in primary transfer plans.
knockout: The more i look at the squad the more i think that Philips could be underrated because everyone is too worried about the hills startlists. Sure, those will be packed and will cause Kelderman to perform worse than he could have done otherwise. But there is so much more about this squad than him: Triple P is a climber/stage racer with a strong track record - last season he scored 640 points and I see no reason why he should not get close to that again. Talansky, Teuns and Traileanu are great depth options on the uphill races. And for the cobbles and hybrid races Tom and Tom should be a pretty solid duo - and Tomas proved to be a strong domestique / C2 leader last season already too. I think Philips won’t have much to do with the relegation fight.
jandal: knockout has stolen my thunder a little bit here because call me biased all you like I am coming in to say Philips are looking great. Even if you want to say Kelderman won’t be scoring like an 82HI rider - which I’d agree with - if you count him as only as strong as the other leaders here and not as their star, then they still have genuine quality leaders (I think “secondary depth” is doing them a disservice) on every terrain including hybrid climbing races, plus good depth in the domestiques, including Teuns and Railenau who should score regularly on their own terms as well. Penasa was a top 30 scorer last season, and I think Van Asbroeck underperformed a lot - he is so all-around handy if he gets treated right there’s not much reason he can’t get back to his old heights of the Lierse days or beyond to be a top 50 scorer in the vein of a Luke Rowe. Tom David also didn’t live up to expectations in the PT last year but I really really like him still for a couple of hundred points, while Talansky still looks very handy heading up that great MO/HI squad. Can’t believe knockout even missed out on mentioning another Tom, as Dumoulin usually manages to outperform his 78TT a bit each year and means they do have a threat for every race type. I really rate this set-up and don’t think it’s risking much below the lower mid table considering the amount of different options all contributing.
And before Abhi decides to some some stupid baby thing like predicting himself to get in the relegation fight or worse, I’m going to point him in the direction of his Valio preview last year, where he argued with me against Croatia and knockout about why they wouldn’t be involved for the exact same reasons (such as signing Penasa and a decent cobbler) Philips have this year, and eventually put them 15th like I did :P
AbhishekLFC: Won't comment too much but I hope what jandal says in the last paragraph, and apparently what I said in last season's preview is correct! Honestly I don't have high expectations from Kelderman. If he is a top 10 puncher this season, I will be happy. CT showed pretty much that his stats are an eyewash mostly besides a few selected classics where he consistently does well. Once I missed getting top leaders, I had to scrap for every possible points scorer who became available and was quite satisfied with the salvage job. Whether it's enough will be clear over the season. What I will say is that I expect to be in the relegation scrap and it's definitely mission 20th place as the target for the season.
jandal: Love the commitment to being two spots clear Abhi - if you finish 21st did you really survive? :P
Philips - F.I.
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
7
7
3
4
2
6
Croatia14
6
6
3
3
1
7
jandal7
7
7
5
4
2
7
knockout
7
7
2
4
2
6
Podium Ambition
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Caleb Ewan
75
62
71
60
73
71
80
70
83
81
63
71
73
x
27
Marcos Altur
75
62
70
63
75
70
70
82
72
68
70
63
63
x
28
Alexandor Cataford
74
72
70
79
75
75
73
67
60
69
67
71
79
x
28
Jon Aberasturi
74
59
64
60
73
71
76
57
79
78
60
57
75
x
32
Logan Owen
73
65
69
62
73
71
72
78
64
71
68
74
64
x
26
Julian Alaphilippe
72
66
73
62
74
69
81
65
77
77
75
73
64
x
29
Jay Major
74
50
66
57
74
70
74
70
77
78
62
66
64
x
26
Alex. Edmondson
73
58
64
64
72
71
77
74
77
75
67
64
74
x
28
Darren Matthews
72
61
66
70
70
67
71
75
76
76
74
66
74
x
30
Alexandre Mayer
67
68
74
70
62
70
69
61
71
74
74
60
71
3
23
Jyme Bridges
74
64
72
66
72
71
73
71
71
71
71
65
60
x
32
Kim Le Court
69
69
76
60
67
70
68
62
64
66
76
70
61
x
25
Christopher Lagane
68
68
72
65
65
69
62
65
73
72
66
61
64
3
23
Joshua Gayral
72
65
71
70
69
70
71
70
70
71
74
62
70
4
24
Bram Welten
72
63
67
58
68
68
71
69
74
73
56
66
59
3
24
#NV
Hasani Hennis
65
67
69
71
68
69
67
69
72
74
69
67
71
3
24
Akil Campbell
71
63
67
73
65
65
66
70
68
72
66
66
72
3
25
Nathan Alexander
71
70
71
69
69
68
69
60
61
66
66
68
69
3
23
Kristian Vanderpool
68
64
64
75
63
64
61
60
60
63
62
62
76
x
26
#NV
Andrew Norbert
69
67
68
69
72
71
59
55
70
69
70
68
69
2
23
Jacob Kelly
67
63
68
68
67
69
58
67
68
71
74
65
68
1
22
Jonathan Croes
64
69
71
70
69
67
66
56
62
64
65
69
70
1
24
Dylan Redy
68
65
69
66
67
67
67
65
68
68
67
65
68
2
22
Cristian Perez
68
62
65
71
69
68
68
69
66
68
71
69
71
1
22
David Dekker
71
61
63
60
74
73
62
68
71
71
65
63
61
2
23
Jacob Morales Ortega
65
67
68
60
68
68
68
55
63
68
68
72
61
1
22
Kemp Orosco
68
70
68
65
70
64
67
60
63
64
67
63
62
2
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: At least five riders too many, and at least a couple of leaders short! It is commendable that Podium Ambition is trying to bring up a whole new region of cycling in the ManGame, much like Ayubowan (currently Farfetch) did with Sri Lanka, but barring maybe Major and Matthews, none of them are likely to contribute meaningful points for this team. For a team with this name, their trajectory has been taking them in the opposite direction in the last couple of seasons. They might very well be going from PT to CT in the span of three seasons! Ewan, Altur and Cataford, or at least two of them, need to have a season to remember, and then some, for them to survive again this time!
knockout: When we talk about depth, we usually mean that someone stacked lots of strong riders to add some points or provide good support. Podium Ambition has a totally different sort of depth as they have stacked up ‘talents’ over ‘talents’ that demand race days. I count a total of 14 riders that are about as useful as a brick (and with the same climbing ability) who need to level up plus Gayral who is a lvl 4.00 rider so probably won’t earn enough XP anyway. At that point, one nearly has to wonder whether Ewan, Altur and Cataford will even get to ride any RDs… In the end, that trio has to improve on their scoring from last season if the team wants to have a quiet season. At least Ewan has a lot of room to do so. If he/they don’t do so, I totally see the possibility of getting the rare former PT team in CT next season.
Croatia14: Any Eurovision fans here? This team reminds me of the second entry of Alexander Rybak. Still having his charm and qualities, but just too much force-feeding of what the team “should” stand for. You gotta love the regional identity, and you also gotta love a focus on two and a half terrains. But If those are as shaky as they are and the national riders are as much in need of development as they are, then the team doesn’t match it’s slogan “Podium Ambition” anymore. That’s how you write a song, but is it one that is still successful in the present time? As much as the cheesy presentation may appeal to the eye, there is so much more that you can achieve with that talented squad. It appears though, that this podium ambition that you could voice cutting two thirds of the team and replacing it with ten good riders, is not the real ambition. That is okay, but could also lead to relegation if Cataford can’t ride his mind out again and Ewan doesn’t make it click due to game flaws.
jandal: Nope not a clue about Eurovision, sorry Cro! But I do agree with your framing of this team around the question of their name - and I will say that if this team do achieve their podium ambitions one day with this new direction it will be one of my most respected and coolest long-term projects, I think it’s very admirable and will be so satisfying to carry out whether or not these guys (and gals) have podiums in their futures or not. Still, we’re here to do a 2021 preview not a 2024 one (though guys how cool does that sound?) and so we have to look at what is currently on the table. Well, what is there to say that hasn’t been said (and isn’t obvious on first glance)? Some of the supporting cast do provide something unique apart from being a sprinter or a shitter - namely Edmondson, Matthews, Bridges and Gayral. But really it’s about the top three dragging these promising but inexperienced and not really talented enough young guns across the line again. And they’ve done it before, so who’s to count them out again?
Podium Ambition
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
0
1
9
7
4
5
Croatia14
0
0
9
8
3
3
jandal7
0
1
10
7
5
4
knockout
0
1
10
6
3
4
Polar
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Pierre Latour
69
80
75
70
80
78
80
52
64
74
80
73
74
x
28
Ion Izagirre
71
74
81
77
73
72
69
54
60
64
69
70
77
x
32
Egan Bernal
70
79
72
76
78
78
80
64
67
68
63
69
74
4
24
Ryan Mullen
75
62
70
80
75
74
72
62
60
70
61
64
78
x
27
Oscar Guerao
73
56
64
56
70
63
80
67
82
75
70
77
56
x
33
Jerome Baugnies
76
55
70
60
77
70
68
78
63
70
72
63
60
x
34
Cyril Barthe
73
73
76
57
73
71
71
69
68
76
79
69
62
x
25
Robin Carpenter
67
76
76
68
72
71
73
52
66
72
72
69
68
x
29
Emilien Viennet
72
54
67
80
75
75
72
59
55
64
73
65
80
x
30
Cesare Di Maggio
64
64
81
61
72
67
64
50
64
74
66
72
61
x
33
Ivan Garcia Cortina
76
64
66
68
76
72
77
74
77
76
70
73
68
x
26
Marc Soler
69
76
71
74
76
74
76
54
54
66
60
61
77
x
28
Nipuna Manamalage
81
51
59
52
71
64
56
77
57
56
64
61
57
x
29
Michael Rodriguez G.
69
74
76
66
72
72
69
55
58
67
73
71
66
x
32
Ho-Ting Kwok
75
53
61
78
72
71
69
52
73
74
81
62
78
x
33
Flavio De Luna
67
74
71
75
67
72
70
66
56
68
66
67
74
x
31
Artem Nych
78
68
67
65
75
72
72
66
65
76
84
74
67
x
26
Joni Brandao
68
73
76
59
69
71
71
53
53
69
78
74
59
x
32
Lukas Postlberger
73
58
68
77
75
72
69
56
69
70
73
61
77
x
29
Jan Brockhoff
79
63
70
65
74
76
71
63
62
73
64
68
68
x
27
Mathieu Bernaudeau
72
54
61
77
68
69
69
52
72
64
63
60
77
x
33
Welle Jallays
75
61
71
75
69
74
73
64
61
63
81
64
75
x
32
Talking Points
knockout: Polar looks super strong from top to bottom. They retained their top duo from last season with Izagirre and Latour, their top talent Egan Bernal looks vastly improved after the recent stat gains and should be very useful already this season and the team made some clever signings to improve their TTT team to push themselves towards being the best in the division - if you have the chance to become the division leader in such a niche, that usually is a very valuable move to do. They also did a couple of interesting low risk gambles in Free Agency - whether it’s aging Baugnies and two stat wonder Manamalange ( ba dee bi di bi) for the cobbles, Di Maggio as a domestique on min wage or Oscar Guerao for the wage of 55k. While you shouldn't have huge expectations for these riders, it adds to the great team depth in places where they make sense and should help them push further towards the promotion spots - or maybe more?
AbhishekLFC: Love the look of Polar, and love how they have covered most of their bases this season. I guess I’m as excited as everyone else to see how an almost maxed Bernal goes this season.
Croatia14: I’m not as much of a fan as the others. Izagirre will suffer quite a lot under Bobridge and the strong puncheurs coming in I guess. Latour looks slightly better than he is, I think he’s comparable to penasa and thus good but not as good as the several 80’s suggest. Bernal however might be a nice addition for the stage races and thus complements pretty well. As the TTT department is top notch as well, I think the team will only race mandatory cobbles and sprint and be pretty weak there. Of course it’s not a relegation team if nothing special happens, but they need very good Bernal/Latour planning if they want to promote.
jandal: Sorry Cro but I’m going with or even past the first two here - I really really rate this Polar set-up with the amount of options they have as well as the quality and depth. Remember back in the Aker preview I said they’re one of a few teams where not a spot is wasted? Well when the closest Polar gets to a deadwood roster spot is a guy who still has 81 in his main stat (take your pick which one of them I mean) you know they’re the prime example, everyone here has something to bring, to score, to support the leaders. And the leaders do look great. This is a scary set-up for the rest of the division and promotion back to their old hunting grounds of the PT should be very much considered the minimum.
Polar
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
7
7
3
3
8
7
Croatia14
8
3
2
3
9
8
jandal7
8
6
2
3
9
8
knockout
7
6
2
3
8
8
Project: Africa
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Jack Bobridge
73
69
83
77
74
74
69
53
69
80
66
66
77
x
32
Francesco Bongiorno
69
79
75
68
77
77
77
61
58
69
69
65
68
x
31
Elias Afewerki
73
63
64
63
77
70
81
69
79
80
68
70
71
x
29
Stefan Denifl
67
81
73
69
70
66
71
51
63
60
70
61
69
x
34
Amanuel Gebrezgabihier
68
70
79
66
74
74
72
53
67
69
77
66
64
x
27
Tsgabu Grmay
67
77
74
65
71
73
76
58
61
71
58
74
65
x
30
Reinhardt Janse v.R.
70
69
68
78
71
71
69
63
60
76
67
64
78
x
32
Jerome Coppel
73
62
72
79
72
72
65
50
61
68
69
60
79
x
35
Samuel Ssabagwanya
70
72
75
56
80
75
77
67
60
77
74
72
53
x
27
O. Lecourt De Billot
75
58
69
64
74
73
65
75
61
74
81
64
68
x
28
Costa Seibeb
71
75
76
66
70
69
71
59
61
73
80
59
66
x
29
Thomas Pidcock
71
71
72
69
71
73
68
71
71
76
67
80
69
1
22
Youcef Reguigui
72
76
71
73
72
69
71
50
63
69
68
62
75
x
31
Keagan Girdlestone
70
75
71
72
75
72
73
55
61
68
68
65
72
4
24
Metkel Kiflay
74
63
68
76
73
70
68
63
66
69
64
72
77
x
30
Albert Kireva
75
68
69
75
73
76
72
69
70
73
71
71
76
x
31
Faycal Hamza
74
52
63
76
74
73
70
50
56
68
69
63
79
x
29
Eddie Van Heerden
67
69
71
66
65
68
67
60
63
71
65
65
63
3
27
Kent Main
67
71
69
71
69
72
72
58
63
68
73
71
71
3
25
Sirak Tesfom
72
62
64
74
68
71
66
53
63
67
70
64
73
3
27
Yacine Hamza
71
60
66
60
70
70
67
60
71
71
65
64
61
2
24
Talking Points
knockout: The Bobridge deal was for sure one of the highlights of the entire transfer season. Not only was it one of the biggest bargains the MG has seen in a long time but it also fit the team very well. Bobridge finds strong hill support with Gebrezgabihier and riders such as Ssabagwanya or Costa Seibeb who will be a huge help for him and a great TTT team. Despite not being a realistic target, the bands selection will also fit him somewhat with perfect fits like the Tour de Slovenie or Pais Vasco on the schedule - it’s hard to find a better fitting leader for the team. Before the deal the team looked set to relegate - i don't think they would have found enough material in the remaining market to avoid the drop since there are too many question marks behind the remaining “leaders” who are all of sub-top quality but Bobridge lifts them into midtable material immediately.
Croatia14: The most up and down transfer period came from the real P:A. Bobridge is a supreme rider, and for that price it was the deal of the transfer season. He can single-handedly keep the team safe, and luckily for me knockout researched their PTHC choices to underline that. Denifl is shit but has endless race days and the MO to score, Bongiorno is a little bit better but more of a constant in the lower Top10s I assume. The rest of the team looks pleasantly African (I love Ssabagwanya, Kireva and Seibeb especially) and deep in the TTT department for such races, though lacking a decent cobbler or sprinter to justify more than mandatory races. Normally a team with a lead puncheur, 2 decent 2nd tier climbers, a good TTT team and a bunch of regional riders would be set to relegate, but with how aidan has cohesively built the team it would need major planning flaws or Bobridge breaking a leg to be a relegation favourite. There are still questions as the management was a late entry to almost every deadline and thus may have invested far less time into planning than other managers, but I have trust in the team.
jandal: I like what Croatia said about the cohesiveness of the team - this is just a well built squad and each unit looks like it will give the leader a great support platform to achieve, which is important since they’re not the strongest out there aside from Bobridge who is obviously a huge name and as the others already covered one of the best pickups we’ve seen in a while. His support is very very good as is the TTT squad, while Denifl and Bongiorno, both different types of climbing leader and neither particularly inspiring, also have great names behind them, especially Grmay who should get a certain amount of points on his own but also Reguigui, Seibeb and Girdlestone are fantastic. With my team no longer part of the preview I have to hold my interest by being as self-centred as possible still so I’ll mention how great my loan-out Thomas Pidcock can be if the AI decides he’s a breakaway rider. The lack of great scorers outside of Bobridge does provide worries but it would be a shame and also not likely if such a well built and regionally focused team goes down over something as minor as not having any good leaders past their top guy.
AbhishekLFC: That Bobridge deal saved the window and the season probably for them so much that it may now push them towards a top half finish. Bobridge should enjoy the PCT much more than the PT and will be among the top two in the hilly TT stage races. Not very keen on the Denifl signing but he's good for points on the hard mountains. Bongiorno is someone I do like though. The great TTT setup should help both the hills and mountains leaders.
knockout: Keizer and Brändle are undoubtedly two strong leaders to have in PCT. But signing both for the same team looks like a mistake since their strengths and maybe more importantly their weaknesses are way too similar to each other to optimize scoring. The fact that Red Bull didn’t elect either the TT heavy PTHC Band 5 with Slovenie and Deutschland or Band 2 featuring the Tour of Norway will further harm the team scoring. At least they ride all relevant HC races since teams have to ride basically every band anyway, right? Right? Nah, the one band they will miss this year, is the undersubscribed HC Band 3 with the Arab Tour and Tour of Britain. While there are of course other very good races on the schedule such as [HC] Tour of Ukraine or [C1] Hong Kong Classic, lots of the best races are not available for the leader duo. As the old saying goes: He who sits in a glass house should not throw curses in every direction.
Croatia14: Is it a mistake though to sign both? Time Trial guys can coexist as leaders, better than on other terrains at least. Teams like Generali or Gazelle have shown this in the past, especially coming from TTTs. I like the approach, in general the manager did a fantastic job as much as he screwed me over in transfers. The wannabe-Patrick Lefevre of Man-Game assembled a great hill squad, without the leader to back it though. Dyrnes and Betancur are good but not great, especially in this competition. Halvorsen has been a fantastic pick-up, in comparison to others he’s insanely cheap and a nice training guy for the future. So let’s be real: The team is far from being #blessed with that one big leader, but the overall squad is deep and well suited to their leaders. Halvorsen has more boom than bust potential, and while I don’t see a big scorer besides Keizer (though knockout had a good point about race selection) I think we’ll see another year of Zalgiris in PCT if they’re not #cursed by their notorious managers’ antics. Only planning magic and the mafia-esque Lithuanian bribery machine could get them close to promotion places this year.
jandal: A complete and well-needed re-shuffle at the top for the Lithuanian pomeranian pagan demigods or whatever they call themselves, and more importantly thanks to that they’ve started to address the RES issue by ditching their aging “stars” and switching Nepomnyachsniys. I think this is another just well-built team from the top down, yes the double up on mountain-TT riders is strange but as Croatia rightly points out TT is the best terrain for multiple leaders as I’m sure the manager is aware. Also this may all just be moot if Keizer rides a mostly traditional mountain stage racing schedule as he may well do. Halvorsen is neat with that flat stat, and there’s an embarrassment of handy multi-faceted domestiques as well as luxury specialists such as Teklehaimanot, Dyrnes and Siskevicius, and so they should be well out of the relegation battle once again - however once again they’ll need a reshuffle of the leaders after this year to stay that way or improve for 2022. Or maybe I hate their squad and think they’re doomed but I just fear the curse. As the old saying goes: Chat shit get banged.
AbhishekLFC: My king! Only great things are in store for you…
Keizer is great for the TT heavy stage races and even a very good option for the regular TT races. Brandle is a great second option for similar types of races. The TTT squad is great as well and should bring them a lot of success. I don’t really like Betancourt as a hills leader because he wasn’t a great option even before this, and with the competition on the hills, one can expect him to fall lower in the pecking order. He has good support though. Halvorsen is a great young sprinter and came at a great wage for his stats. Unfortunately, his success depends on PCM, and that’s just a shitty thing to depend on.
Red Bull Zalgiris
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
6
4
5
2
8
7
Croatia14
3
4
5
1
7
9
jandal7
5
4
4
2
7
5
knockout
5
4
4
1
6
8
Sauber Petronas Racing
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Tejay Van Garderen
72
71
81
68
77
74
70
66
69
78
79
74
68
x
33
Tom Jelte Slagter
68
78
79
66
71
73
74
50
61
71
82
79
66
x
32
Suranga Ranaweera
66
80
73
74
75
75
74
52
58
65
57
69
73
x
26
Kilian Frankiny
69
78
76
64
72
75
77
53
61
75
71
66
67
x
27
Sergei Pomoshnikov
71
79
74
64
78
76
74
52
64
66
61
67
64
x
31
Matteo Pelucchi
74
56
68
65
74
70
75
62
79
77
68
68
65
x
32
Felix Grossschartner
67
74
77
67
72
73
72
50
62
72
71
68
69
x
28
Winner Anacona
68
78
73
65
73
70
72
50
52
59
52
56
65
x
33
Piter Campero
65
78
70
69
75
70
72
55
56
71
69
74
69
x
30
Marc Hirschi
70
72
74
65
76
75
73
66
66
71
77
75
65
3
23
Nawuti Liphongyu
68
75
72
74
73
72
74
65
58
63
68
63
73
x
30
Simon Pellaud
70
65
77
66
74
68
71
55
65
70
71
67
66
x
29
Mohammad Mat Senan
69
75
71
67
74
71
70
51
58
70
65
59
67
x
31
Ajay Pandit Chhetri
67
76
71
61
73
65
67
55
64
73
70
78
61
x
31
Zhihui Jiang
72
61
66
65
69
73
72
62
75
75
65
73
79
x
27
Luca Forcellini
67
70
74
67
70
65
70
52
61
72
58
57
59
x
31
Andrea Enrico Maccagli
72
63
66
75
70
71
68
61
63
68
69
70
75
x
26
Mushin Misbah
66
72
67
71
72
70
70
62
62
67
69
69
70
3
24
Riccardo Putti
67
69
71
62
71
70
71
69
58
65
78
70
62
3
25
Jakub Otruba
66
70
70
67
66
67
67
60
63
68
68
68
67
3
23
Samuele Menicucci
68
62
68
61
70
70
71
69
61
67
68
69
63
2
24
Yannis Voisard
65
68
66
61
65
66
70
60
61
62
67
66
63
2
23
Talking Points
knockout: For me it’s always fascinating to see how many teams try to have some scoring potential on some terrain and how many teams opt to ignore some terrains. There is an argument that Sauber outgrieg’d Grieg and out-tmm’ed TMM. They don’t have anyone capable of scoring in time trials, cobbles or sprints - I might be ignoring Pelucchi here but so will the PCM AI *famous last words*. This leaves only two terrains with leaders: Hills and Mountains. On the hills Tejay is still going strong and has strong support - especially if the team decides to bring it. Despite the strong opponents he should do well this season. On the mountains there is Ranaweera who is a solid but not spectacular leader in PCT. And there are riders like Slagter, Pomoshnikov, Frankiny, Anacona, Großschartner and Campero. Some of them are very nice riders, some a bit less so. But they all have in common that they wouldn’t qualify for the best Evonik TTT team. Which makes planning very difficult and despite the presence of enough individual talent, a great planning might be needed to avoid the drop to CT. At the very least, the team should be in danger until the very end and I suspect we could see a desperate Tour of America race to decide their season.
Croatia14: Right on here.Tejay needs to deliver for them to survive. Key is to plan Slagter away from him, as Slagter may wear Tejay out on the climbs and lead to awkward situations. Is Slagter in the right environment though? I’d have liked him more on a team where he has the freedom to pick his races more on the climbers side, while there these places are taken from Frankiny (who will be outstanding). The squad support is great, even if Ranaweera will suffer quite a lot from the tougher competition. I really like the support the team has, but they seem to lack the leader they need to survive as the support guys lack the riders to ride for. I slightly get Kraftwerk vibes by the team, but not on enough terrains. The leaders might not be good enough to justify the Sauber-approach, but if they can get the race selection done and plan very carefully to work their awesome secondary climbers there is a possibility to survive.
jandal: To see a team form not one but two trains filled up with actually good domestiques and not one-stat wonders is a very nice achievement and I count five guys who should be leading themselves at least some of the time to benefit from that, so it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility to imagine this approach working - with brilliant planning and some luck, to be sure. Some will say it’s worth sacrificing a bit of the depth for a rudimentary cobbler and a better sprinter… and I’d surely agree, I’m not sure how bands and RDs will work out but even if they suit having five major scorers in two and a half terrains as perfectly as is possible they’re still going to go into many RDs with no hope at all. But maybe full sending it is actually the way to go - in for a penny, I guess. Will be interesting to follow and actually I reckon very fun to plan, albeit while having the stress of a nearly-assured relegation scrap weighing on you.
AbhishekLFC: They had a hard time rebuilding this off season beyond the early capture of Van Garderen. I fear they will once again be in the relegation picture like a couple of seasons ago. I like Ranaweera as a young climber with lots of training potential but I'm not sure him and TVG will have enough firepower to keep them safe. They do have some decent support, in especially Slagter is a decent option to have in any team, but it's a question mark to me whether they'll get enough liberty to contribute effectively.
Sauber Petronas
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
6
7
1
0
1
3
Croatia14
6
8
1
0
0
3
jandal7
7
6
1
0
1
5
knockout
6
6
1
0
1
5
Team Popo p/b Nemiroff
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Aleksandr Pluchkin
72
83
73
77
75
75
74
68
65
71
65
64
77
x
34
Mark Padun
67
81
77
65
72
74
76
53
60
75
76
70
65
x
25
Pascal Ackermann
72
65
77
61
75
71
79
61
77
80
66
63
68
x
27
Oleksandr Prevar
72
71
80
62
77
70
68
53
67
73
63
66
62
x
31
Martin Laas
67
74
76
62
68
73
73
55
67
76
68
57
62
x
28
Roman Lutsyshyn
70
50
54
64
69
73
74
55
79
80
58
57
70
x
27
"Zouzou"
65
76
72
74
74
74
76
56
52
71
76
64
70
x
27
Artem Topchanyuk
68
77
73
65
72
72
71
58
60
70
73
63
65
x
32
Oleksandr Golovash
72
60
60
78
72
69
66
55
73
76
61
65
78
x
30
Anatoliy Budyak
68
74
78
68
72
67
73
56
57
68
63
74
68
x
26
Adrian Nitu
68
76
74
65
73
70
68
53
52
70
62
62
65
x
31
Darijus Dzervus
73
54
66
71
73
72
75
57
77
77
71
65
76
x
31
Michel Sibilla
70
53
62
57
71
67
64
80
65
63
78
62
57
x
33
Nicolae Tanovitchii
72
68
76
60
75
72
71
57
62
71
79
68
60
x
28
Deins Kanepejs
70
67
77
69
72
71
70
55
62
71
68
65
69
x
26
Andrii Bratashcuk
69
71
77
58
75
70
69
52
62
67
65
79
58
x
29
Volodymyr Dzhus
65
76
70
64
74
74
68
55
58
75
70
63
64
x
28
Dries De Bondt
76
62
67
57
72
69
68
72
74
76
76
61
57
x
30
Stanislaw Aniolkowski
72
61
64
56
72
72
73
60
75
75
57
63
59
3
24
Roman Gladysh
70
66
72
63
70
70
70
61
70
72
70
68
65
3
26
Andriy Orlov
69
58
76
67
74
68
69
55
63
70
74
64
67
x
29
Wojciech Pszczolarski
73
60
70
74
68
72
67
53
71
72
68
65
77
x
30
Vadim Pronskiy
63
72
68
62
71
70
73
58
61
69
68
69
62
3
23
Martin Papanov
67
69
68
66
68
68
69
54
65
66
67
66
70
1
22
Talking Points
knockout: Team Popo does not look stronger than last season. Pluchkin might still be the top dog in the division but he probably won’t be as dominant as he once was. Padun’s training obviously made him stronger but the 2021 duo Pluchkin + Padun is not stronger than the 2020 duo Pluchkin + Padun. And while the team management might hope that the hills department can improve due to the returning Budyak, I think the duo of Prevar and Budyak will combine for less than Prevar scored on his own in 2020 (492 points) due to the increase in top level puncheurs in the PCT. I expect the team to once again miss out on the direct promotion spots narrowly like in past seasons.
AbhishekLFC: Now or never mate! But we can almost be sure that Pluchkin will be a bigger pain for the PT than the PCT, so it’s a moot point again?
Croatia14: Now or never is the right call. I might disagree with knockout on Pluchkin and Padun (still on u25-points!!), because the opposition got a little weaker and thus they’ll be even more effective. For me it was always planning that held them back, but they should’ve learned their lesson till now. Still they have dead wood in their squad though, and still they have no cobbler, no sprinter and no TT guy that looks respectable (out-TMMed as knockout called it at Sauber?!). It’s about climbing and hills, and while hills may see them weakening (I don’t trust Ackermann, Prevar won’t score as much and Budyak will only be useful in C2), they can score even more in the mountain races with Tenorio gone. With the support they have in the mountains (that will score them depth points and team classifications) they should promote if they get their planning right and finally focus on that. But they should’ve done in the past either, so don’t have them as a lock in your books.
jandal: Who knows anymore - I can’t imagine what being a fan of this team must be like, seeing the same conversation about if this is the year while the team remains at a standstill as Padun’s improvement fill in the gaps of Pluchkin’s decline, as the team gets predicted just outside the direct promotion spots and then finishes slightly too far outside. However if you offered most teams the chance to be always in the top 10 of the division, while having plenty of wins to cheer and one of the best talents around coming to the fore, they’d surely take it. However we know the manager and fans surely want a step up and once again… yeah they definitely could do it? I think Padun and Pluchkin are a great combo who should score more than before as Pluchkin looks a little more vulnerable but still top dog as he was last year while Padun will have a mega year I am sure of it. Aside from those two changing stats there’s really not much to say - they have the same “base strength” so to speak, it’s just about the fact that last year that strength couldn’t get them promoted - is the top third of the table weaker by enough that they can? I think so, but much like the fans of the team I’ve been burned before - I’ll only believe it when they’re on the startline in Tasmania in 2022.
Team Popo4Ever
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
10
5
2
2
2
4
Croatia14
10
5
1
1
1
5
jandal7
10
6
3
2
2
7
knockout
10
5
2
2
2
7
Team UBS
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Simone Ponzi
74
71
82
66
74
69
73
66
74
77
75
72
66
x
34
Patrick Schelling
71
80
75
72
75
76
73
54
58
70
67
72
71
x
31
Lukas Spengler
74
58
66
62
72
73
76
83
61
70
67
63
65
x
27
Daniele Dall'Oste
70
76
76
67
71
74
75
56
58
71
73
71
67
x
30
Patrick Müller
70
65
80
63
76
71
70
68
66
72
75
63
63
x
25
Geoffrey Bouchard
70
77
74
67
70
72
76
55
62
70
78
76
66
x
29
Sebastien Reichenbach
71
73
79
67
76
69
73
57
63
69
73
67
67
x
32
Tom Bohli
74
63
68
70
79
75
65
77
74
68
66
68
73
x
27
Thery Schir
67
77
72
72
73
72
74
50
59
65
69
68
72
x
28
Silvan Dillier
70
51
64
80
74
77
67
68
61
62
74
63
79
x
31
Matteo Badilatti
67
76
75
65
67
72
71
55
60
65
73
62
65
x
29
Jose Goncalves
70
73
71
78
76
72
74
53
57
65
59
74
66
x
32
Martin Schäppi
72
64
67
75
74
72
69
76
66
68
70
60
75
x
25
Phan Age Haugard
72
57
60
79
74
77
70
56
57
67
73
65
79
x
29
Artur Grigrian
68
76
71
72
72
68
71
50
56
73
62
56
72
x
32
Dominik Fuchs
68
75
72
68
75
71
73
55
58
64
67
65
67
x
31
Arnaud Grand
72
58
65
63
74
70
68
77
65
65
64
60
67
x
31
Jorge Abreu
73
73
73
75
75
71
73
54
52
73
79
67
75
x
31
Daniil Fominykh
74
56
67
77
74
71
68
54
64
69
61
63
76
x
30
Basilio Ramos Ticona
69
70
74
75
71
71
67
50
54
69
74
55
71
x
32
Johan Jacobs
72
60
67
62
72
72
65
73
63
66
70
72
60
3
24
Nik Cemazar
68
69
68
68
68
69
69
56
61
64
66
66
67
1
22
Talking Points
knockout: In the past, many relegated PT teams have successfully achieved direct promotion back to PT without a lot of changes in their squad. And UBS looks to be a strong candidate to do so as well. They have Spengler who should do a lot better in PCT than in PT with decent support, Dilliers with a strong TTT team around him, Schelling with very strong support and of course Ponzi with an epic support squad. The team should be able to score lots of depth points in everything but sprints and looks set to compete for the promotion spots.
Croatia14: Will Spengler do that much better though? The competition doesn’t look a lot worse, he can’t make use on the significantly more hills to the cobbled races in C1/HC and still misses the final kick. I think he’ll score well to be a Top50 scorer in the division, but not a lot more. The TTT team looks set however, and Abreu is an undervalued asset I absolutely love for the hybrid races. He should be great with Goncalves. Schelling will blossom in PCT if used right, I agree to that, and the depth looks set.
Will it be enough to promote back up? The experience of manager Bushwackers speaks in favor of that, the team does as well. Ponzi is a stud, my pick for the best puncheur due to his sprint. Contrary to knockout I have questions about the support as I don’t like Müller and think Reichenbach is okay. But with the depth in every terrain, a great rider to fill every race day (besides mandatory sprint races) and great C2 and PTHC options it’s UBS’es to lose in terms of promotion.
jandal: This is a very very nice looking team - I’m saying it a lot but it’s well put together with the depth and support and the leaders look great - Ponzi still has it even if he’s not the clear #1 as in years gone by - and as Croatia said he may still end up there, and has two domestiques better than some team’s leaders in the hills. I think Schelling is a great PCT MO/HI rider in the (slightly worse) mould of a Monsalve, Yates or Bennett if he goes to the right races, especially with his TT giving him advantage over many of the pure climbers. I think I said already I don’t have a clue what Spengler is like and so I’ve just been assuming he’s like fifth or sixth or seventh best in the cobbles? Which is still very good especially with one of the best support squads (hey remember 2016 when teams actually tried having a full cobbles set-up?). Dillier and the TTT squad look dangerous in what is a very open field for both individual and team time trials (Zmorka aside). The yo-yo may very well continue for them - it would be nice to see them and Farfetch can actually ride in a division together instead of taking turns being in the PT since 2016!
AbhishekLFC: I think they should be knocking on promotion’s door (yes, I did that!) this season for a return to PT, but it isn’t as clear cut as maybe with Aker and cycleYorkshire from my point of view. Ponzi and Spengler should be good in the classics in their respective domains, while Schelling should also get consistent results. The support is excellent for all three terrains. They have always been a formidable TTT outfit and that continues as well. Top 5 should be within reach though, barring some major under-performances.
Team UBS
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
6
8
0
5
7
4
Croatia14
5
9
0
6
8
1
jandal7
6
8
0
6
8
4
knockout
6
7
0
5
7
3
Tryg - Ritter Sport
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Toms Skujins
70
70
83
59
80
77
73
67
68
76
66
66
59
x
30
Tim Wellens
72
82
75
72
79
80
76
62
63
68
64
70
72
x
30
Daniel Hoelgaard
72
74
77
65
72
72
72
62
68
74
73
69
65
x
28
Andris Smirnovs
68
68
77
56
74
69
67
68
72
78
78
70
56
x
31
Max Kanter
73
63
67
67
74
71
76
70
77
78
65
71
66
4
24
Bjorn Tore Hoem
67
77
72
67
74
69
74
53
58
62
61
72
67
x
30
Nur Aiman Zariff
68
58
60
60
70
65
76
60
78
78
60
67
70
4
24
Mikkel Honore
70
67
75
66
72
72
70
67
65
73
71
70
66
4
24
Casper Pedersen
74
61
67
67
73
75
71
63
75
75
71
69
76
4
25
Mathias Norsgaard
72
62
65
77
68
73
64
62
57
66
56
59
75
4
24
Andreas Kron
71
66
74
65
72
72
68
64
65
69
70
69
64
3
23
Frederik Rodenberg
70
60
62
63
68
73
63
59
74
75
63
63
69
3
23
Joris Nieuwenhuis
73
63
68
60
67
72
63
68
70
73
62
75
60
3
25
Tobias Johannessen
66
71
68
64
67
70
69
60
67
71
65
71
63
1
22
Magnus Bak Klaris
70
61
67
64
68
69
65
71
64
66
61
64
64
3
25
Torjus Sleen
68
69
69
71
67
70
71
60
63
68
70
64
69
3
24
Felix Gross
68
60
60
62
64
71
65
60
72
73
60
60
62
2
23
Yesid Albeiro Pira
62
72
66
62
64
65
68
60
60
64
63
60
61
1
22
Oier Lazkano
64
64
69
59
64
67
63
60
64
68
71
61
59
1
22
Juri Hollmann
68
62
65
69
66
68
62
68
61
63
61
65
67
1
22
Rasmus Iversen
69
62
63
68
65
66
65
65
62
64
65
64
68
1
24
Xabier Mikel Azparren
65
61
63
70
65
65
65
60
62
63
65
62
68
1
22
Talking Points
AbhishekLFC: Love Wellens and Skuijns but who else scores for them? Those two are good enough to keep them safe comfortably, but if even one wobbles this season, all that hard work in the transfer window could come undone very fast. Wellens should be a Top 3 climber, and Skuijns should be a Top 5 puncher. Check the table from last season and see where it would get them...
knockout: Wellens and Skujins should mark an outstanding transfer season for any team, absolute standout riders who could be PT leaders with 3 seasons in their prime left. Two riders of such a great quality should make every team comfortable to avoid relegation but are they actually safe? There are question marks behind each of their leaders that actually make me question that:
The abundance of big names on the hills can lead to worse scoring than you might expect and I hope Skujins’ schedule can avoid a couple of trap races that either feature too difficult profiles (e.g. Balkans International) or too much TTing to maximize his scoring.
Wellens will have downright bad support at times. Hoelgaard can’t be everywhere for Skujins and Wellens so the entire support at some of his races will consist of just Bjorn Tore Hoem and level 1 talents. Couple that with the fact that Wellens is neither an explosive rider nor a rider that can create advantages on the TT bike and I’m worried that he might score significantly less than he should do.
Outside of these worries, I struggle to see where the depth scoring should come from - Hoelgaard better be busy playing the babysitter for his two leaders for every single race day of his season while Hoem doesn’t look like an attacker either. Kanter looks like the only cobbler and / or sprinter of note and he might get a lucky dice roll once or twice on a stage but hardly gonna be big points. And Smirnovs has nice attacking stats and versatility so might get sth going but has to race mostly for Skujins too. Outside of these two, there isn't anything - the team looks a bit like the cycling equivalent of putting Haaland and Mbappe in a team with kindergarten kids. Can such a team win?
Croatia14: Can they win? Probably yes, if it’s some sort of shootout between the team captains, as we often see at the end of hilly classics or ____/ climbers races. But as soon as the road has major rises before they might be in trouble. Dropping back to get bottles yourself is a huge struggle, but if they have Hoem for Wellens and Hoelgaard + Smirnovs for Skujins they should be somehow safe. I have no doubts about Wellens scoring big, but can Skujins do it? In a normal year I would’ve been sure, this year I’d rather would’ve kept Cort (would’ve been great in the PCT competition this year) and got another one (but how would you guess this competition?).
My issue is that there is absolutely nobody that can score any points, not even in the C2 races. They will rely on u25 points, Wellens and Skujins. Wellens should be a Top5-10 scorer, but Skujins might be overpowered by the competition on hills. Are one and a half stars enough to keep you safe? Summerhill managed to do it with Vanspeybrouck, but the AI was kinder to attacks last year which benefitted Andorra while Tryg suffers from it and the division is stronger. A tough year ahead for Tryg, but if they survive it they’re one of the first 2022 promotion contenders to PT with their core.
jandal: Very much the opposite to some of the teams they’ll be battling with in the lower mid table (I’d guess) with the two huge guns (who are incredible pick-ups for a promoting outfit!) and not much else - I’d expect Hoelgaard to score decently and maybe even worth leading himself once or twice, and Smirnovs is nice enough, but after that you struggle - maybe Kanter can do a bit in U25 points but otherwise Nieuwenhuis and Honore look like the only ones who can even do anything from breakaways, it will be super dry for them and as Croatia points out PCM20 is said to be less kind to such minor scoring. However with leaders like Wellens and Skujins who will be near the top of their respective fields, you potentially don’t need much else. And as Croatia said I think with the awesome acquisitions of the top two to hopefully keep them safe, with the amount of level 3 and 4 guys they have, and two genuine stars with years to go before decline, the future is super bright for Tryg Racing if they can make it work this year.
Tryg - Ritter Sport
MO
HI
SP
CB
TT
HYB
AbhishekLFC
8
9
3
0
1
0
Croatia14
8
8
1
0
1
1
jandal7
8
9
2
1
1
1
knockout
7
9
1
0
1
1
Voyagin - Bird
FL
MO
HI
TT
ST
RS
RC
CB
SP
AC
FG
DH
PR
XP
Age
Tomohiro Kinoshita
73
72
83
66
80
77
73
59
68
77
73
71
66
x
30
Chen Shikai
72
81
71
76
74
76
78
55
57
66
59
69
76
x
29
Jiankun Liu
74
63
67
63
76
69
80
65
80
80
64
68
67
x
26
Sindre Skjostad Lunke
69
78
72
73
76
74
78
58
60
64
68
69
76
x
28
Saya Kuroeda
74
53
63
67
72
73
75
77
74
78
63
64
71
x
26
Jingbiao Zhao
74
58
65
66
68
74
74
58
77
81
56
71
78
x
26
Shiki Kuroeda
72
63
70
52
76
77
82
76
76
73
67
71
63
x
29
Rei Onodera
74
66
69
78
75
74
71
61
65
68
64
68
75
x
26
Yamato Shirota
68
75
75
58
69
68
73
55
63
78
73
58
58
x
27
Yudai Arashiro
81
60
64
62
71
67
73
68
70
75
78
68
66
x
26
Tushantha Rajapakshage
72
64
70
76
71
72
68
61
50
69
75
54
78
x
29
King Lok Cheung
75
59
67
77
72
74
69
57
63
66
64
72
77
x
30
Leszek Plucinski
71
73
72
71
70
70
71
59
69
70
69
69
70
x
31
Jacob Salcone
71
72
70
74
67
70
70
50
52
63
70
64
75
x
32
Xianjing Lyu
65
70
73
62
72
72
70
50
63
71
68
73
64
3
23
Yuriy Natarov
63
73
68
67
63
68
74
60
65
65
76
56
66
3
25
Andrea Bagioli
69
68
70
68
70
69
66
60
69
70
70
65
70
1
22
Mingrun Chen
68
71
68
62
70
73
73
56
65
67
56
63
62
2
25
Shoi Matsuda
69
65
69
68
65
70
60
60
67
69
60
63
70
1
22
Itsuki Koide
67
66
67
66
62
65
63
60
60
66
60
63
64
1
22
Pierre Barbier
67
58
62
63
67
68
67
66
69
69
60
64
63
1
24
Talking Points
Croatia14: Obviously you gotta talk about the releases first: I’m sure Kuboki at least could’ve been avoided, I bet some teams would’ve paid quite something to get him. Still the team looks very well set: No important rider is older than 30, which is awesome. Kinoshita should be the 2nd best rider in the division after Pluchkin (maybe Ewan), eventhough he won’t score as much due to the hill competition. But he’s one of the rare puncheurs that should ensure your team safety.
The team on a whole however will be one of the least flashy teams in the division. The secondary leaders should be the Zubeldia-type riders that work in this game to an extent as they’ll score GC points. I hate the look of Shikai, but I can’t deny that his skillset will work at least to score solid. I love the Kuroeda-brothers, eventhough I’m not sure they can score against the top-end competition. Homegrown Jiankun Liu is a boom or bust type of sprinter, I can see him doing very well surfing trains.
All in all this team will most probably be a silent midtable table. If Kinoshita has an awesome year they might push for single digits, if he has an absolutely awful year they might fear relegation, but in a normal year they are set and have a good base to build on for next year with no declines on the horizon.
knockout: Just like Croatia, i have to mention the releases first: They caught me completely by surprise because the last time i had read about their availability was 60 hours prior to that where Hayakawa still had an asking price of 300k with a tentative offer in place and Kuboki was supposed to be “quite cheap” - I would definitely have expected some more scrambling to get a deal done and am quite sure that the double sacking was a case of wasted money.
Looking at the team that is actually still there - Kinoshita is of course still the face of the team. And like once or twice in the past, he looks like he could be the best puncheur of the PCT division - although there is a big but this year: How many synonyms are there to write about the plentitude of rivals? Notable is that his support this season is shockingly terrible for a just relegated PT team that surely had him in every single one of their transfer plans. Which could cause issues for the team. Shikai and Lunke are two very solid stage racers who will surely contribute to the team scoring while the Kuroeda brothers and newly maxed Liu are like a loot box that could be terrible (they combined for 203 PT points last season) but could also score surprisingly well in certain races.
AbhishekLFC: Kinoshita for the hilly wins, Shikai for the stage racing consistency, but it’s a bit of a big drop after that! I personally do like the Kuroedas, but they’re more of a regular Top 10 threat than anything else, with maybe a couple of better results thrown in along the way. Liu is ok, but that low resistance is a problem for consistent results. The TTT team is decent I guess. I completely agree with knockout’s last line about their secondary leaders, either they can bring in a lot of points, which could actually send this team close to the promotion spots, or go the other way and fail miserably, leading to them being lower mid table at best, or even in relegation danger at worst.
jandal: Like the first two said the team does look different and not in the best way without Hayakawa and Kuboki, I really don’t like Liu to fill that gap but he’s not as bad as I thought on first glance and should be alright, especially if he manages to target the right races. Not sure what Zhao can do but his skillset isn’t bad - wish he had a better leader if he is to be a leadout man. Shikai is the kind of guy with his low HI and ACC I think this preview is always going to be a bit biased against but he’s proven quality and we’d be ill advised to forget he has the third best TT out of anyone above 77MO and the second best over 80, as well as comparable energy stats to his rivals. So maybe a standard schedule fits him if he can target races where he can use that to his advantage and even threaten the podium, but he also screams Tour of America winner to me if that’s the way the team wants to go with him. Kinoshita is hot stuff as always and I always enjoy seeing him as the face of the team, so cool to have a staple home-built legend like that for a outfit. Obviously we all love the Kuroeda’s statlines and will never miss a chance to shout them out in this preview, but as you guys said they’re far from guaranteed scorers. Maybe shooting for a couple of TTers and/or a top one to make a top train could have been an option for them given what they have already? Either way I think they’re safe but not shooting back up without a lot of overperformances.
This is a ranking prediction based on the grades we gave the teams in the part above. First we rank all the statistical terrain outcomes, to then add them up to a full scale qualitative comparative analysis-prediction.
Mountain
1
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
10
2
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
8.5
3
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
8.3
4
Assa Abloy
8
5
Tryg - Ritter Sport
7.8
5
Jura - Fiat
7.5
5
Polar
7.5
8
Aker - MOT
7.3
9
cycleYorkshire
6.8
9
Philips - Force India
6.8
11
Los Pollos Hermanos
6.5
12
Kraftwerk Man Machine
6.3
12
Sauber Petronas Racing
6.3
14
Cedevita
6
14
Duolingo
6
16
Team UBS
5.8
17
Minions
5.3
18
Voyagin - Bird
5
19
Red Bull Zalgiris
4.8
20
Binance Cycling
4.5
20
Project: Africa
4.5
22
Carrefour - ESPN
4
23
Indosat - Ooredoo
3.8
24
Eurosport x GCN
3.5
25
Bralirwa - Stevens
3
26
Podium Ambition
0
Hill
1
Tryg - Ritter Sport
8.8
2
Voyagin - Bird
8.5
2
Project: Africa
8.5
4
Minions
8.3
5
Team UBS
8
6
Cedevita
7.5
7
Aker - MOT
7.3
8
Philips - Force India
6.8
8
Sauber Petronas Racing
6.8
10
Duolingo
6.5
11
Polar
5.5
12
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
5.3
13
cycleYorkshire
5
14
Binance Cycling
4.8
15
Kraftwerk Man Machine
4.5
16
Carrefour - ESPN
4.3
17
Jura - Fiat
4
17
Red Bull Zalgiris
4
19
Indosat - Ooredoo
3.8
20
Eurosport x GCN
3
21
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
2.8
22
Assa Abloy
2.3
23
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
1.8
23
Bralirwa - Stevens
1.8
25
Los Pollos Hermanos
1
26
Podium Ambition
0.8
Sprints
1
Podium Ambition
9.5
2
Binance Cycling
8.8
3
Carrefour - ESPN
7.5
4
Los Pollos Hermanos
7
5
Indosat - Ooredoo
6.5
6
Bralirwa - Stevens
6
7
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
5.8
8
Minions
5.3
8
Cedevita
5.3
8
Kraftwerk Man Machine
5.3
8
Eurosport x GCN
5.3
12
Assa Abloy
4.8
13
cycleYorkshire
4.5
13
Red Bull Zalgiris
4.5
15
Jura - Fiat
3.8
16
Voyagin - Bird
3.5
16
Duolingo
3.5
18
Philips - Force India
3.3
18
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
3.3
20
Polar
2.3
21
Project: Africa
2
21
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
2
23
Tryg - Ritter Sport
1.8
24
Sauber Petronas Racing
1
25
Aker - MOT
0.3
26
Team UBS
0
Cobbles
1
Eurosport x GCN
8.8
2
Bralirwa - Stevens
8.3
2
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
8.3
4
Podium Ambition
7
5
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
6.5
6
Carrefour - ESPN
5.8
6
Minions
5.8
8
Team UBS
5.5
9
Assa Abloy
5
9
Aker - MOT
5
11
Binance Cycling
3.8
11
Philips - Force India
3.8
13
Voyagin - Bird
3.3
14
Polar
3
15
cycleYorkshire
2.5
15
Duolingo
2.5
17
Cedevita
1.8
17
Kraftwerk Man Machine
1.8
17
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
1.8
20
Red Bull Zalgiris
1.5
21
Jura - Fiat
0.8
21
Project: Africa
0.8
23
Los Pollos Hermanos
0.5
24
Tryg - Ritter Sport
0.3
25
Indosat - Ooredoo
0
25
Sauber Petronas Racing
0
Time Trial
1
cycleYorkshire
9.3
2
Los Pollos Hermanos
8.8
3
Polar
8.5
4
Team UBS
7.5
5
Aker - MOT
7.3
6
Red Bull Zalgiris
7
7
Duolingo
6.8
8
Bralirwa - Stevens
6
8
Project: Africa
6
10
Assa Abloy
4.5
10
Kraftwerk Man Machine
4.5
12
Voyagin - Bird
4.3
13
Podium Ambition
3.8
14
Minions
3.5
15
Indosat - Ooredoo
3.3
16
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
2.3
16
Cedevita
2.3
16
Jura - Fiat
2.3
19
Carrefour - ESPN
1.8
19
Philips - Force India
1.8
19
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
1.8
22
Binance Cycling
1.5
23
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
1.3
24
Tryg - Ritter Sport
1
25
Eurosport x GCN
0.8
25
Sauber Petronas Racing
0.8
Hybrids
1
Aker - MOT
8.3
2
Polar
7.8
3
Red Bull Zalgiris
7.3
4
Cedevita
7
4
Carrefour - ESPN
7
6
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
6.8
7
Philips - Force India
6.5
8
Project: Africa
6.3
9
cycleYorkshire
5.8
9
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
5.8
11
Indosat - Ooredoo
5.5
12
Duolingo
4.8
13
Bralirwa - Stevens
4.3
13
Assa Abloy
4.3
15
Podium Ambition
4
15
Sauber Petronas Racing
4
17
Los Pollos Hermanos
3.8
17
Voyagin - Bird
3.8
17
Binance Cycling
3.8
17
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
3.8
21
Kraftwerk Man Machine
3.5
21
Minions
3.5
21
Jura - Fiat
3.5
24
Team UBS
3
25
Eurosport x GCN
1
26
Tryg - Ritter Sport
0.8
Now that we've seen all terrain rakings, we can put them together to one statistical prediction. Note that due to calendar and accessibility constraints terrains are differently graded and the better terrains of each team emphasized in the final QCA ranking. This ranking is not completely useful as a final prediction, but more of a hint on how team strengths might be distributed throughtout the divisions without assessing non-quantifiable aspects of respective teams.
In this final segment we shared our subjective predictions on the 2021 season. You will find some similarities and some differences, but we all did our best to create an independent ranking.
AbhishekLFC
1
Aker - MOT
2
cycleYorkshire
3
Polar
4
Team UBS
5
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
6
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
7
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
8
Assa Abloy
9
Binance Cycling
10
Red Bull Zalgiris
11
Duolingo
12
Minions
13
Kraftwerk Man Machine
14
Voyagin - Bird
15
Cedevita
16
Los Pollos Hermanos
17
Carrefour - ESPN
18
Project: Africa
19
Tryg - Ritter Sport
20
Philips - Force India
21
Bralirwa - Stevens
22
Eurosport x GCN
23
Jura - Fiat
24
Indosat - Ooredoo
25
Podium Ambition
26
Sauber Petronas Racing
Croatia14
1
Aker - MOT
2
Assa Abloy
3
Team UBS
4
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
5
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
6
cycleYorkshire
7
Polar
8
Red Bull Zalgiris
9
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
10
Voyagin - Bird
11
Binance Cycling
12
Minions
13
Kraftwerk Man Machine
14
Los Pollos Hermanos
15
Project: Africa
16
Podium Ambition
17
Duolingo
18
Bralirwa - Stevens
19
Philips - Force India
20
Cedevita
21
Tryg - Ritter Sport
22
Indosat - Ooredoo
23
Eurosport x GCN
24
Carrefour - ESPN
25
Sauber Petronas Racing
26
Jura - Fiat
jandal7
1
Polar
2
Aker - MOT
3
cycleYorkshire
4
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
5
Team UBS
6
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
7
Assa Abloy
8
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
9
Voyagin - Bird
10
Philips - Force India
11
Binance Cycling
12
Kraftwerk Man Machine
13
Duolingo
14
Minions
15
Cedevita
16
Project: Africa
17
Tryg - Ritter Sport
18
Los Pollos Hermanos
19
Podium Ambition
20
Red Bull Zalgiris
21
Carrefour - ESPN
22
Indosat - Ooredoo
23
Sauber Petronas Racing
24
Bralirwa - Stevens
25
Eurosport x GCN
26
Jura - Fiat
Knockout
1
Aker - MOT
2
Polar
3
Team UBS
4
cycleYorkshire
5
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
6
Assa Abloy
7
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
8
Kraftwerk Man Machine
9
Philips - Force India
10
Binance Cycling
11
Minions
12
Lierse SK - Pizza Ulloa PCTeam
13
Duolingo
14
Project: Africa
15
Carrefour - ESPN
16
Red Bull Zalgiris
17
Los Pollos Hermanos
18
Voyagin - Bird
19
Cedevita
20
Bralirwa - Stevens
21
Tryg - Ritter Sport
22
Podium Ambition
23
Eurosport x GCN
24
Indosat - Ooredoo
25
Sauber Petronas Racing
26
Jura - Fiat
And as every year: One final overview of the predictions of us four.
2021 Predictions
Abhishek
Croatia
jandal
Knockout
1
Aker - MOT
Aker - MOT
Polar
Aker - MOT
2
cycleYorkshire
Assa Abloy
Aker - MOT
Polar
3
Polar
Team UBS
cycleYorkshire
Team UBS
4
Team UBS
Carlsberg
Popo4Ever
cycleYorkshire
5
Popo4Ever
Popo4Ever
Team UBS
Carlsberg
6
Lierse SK
cycleYorkshire
Carlsberg
Assa Abloy
7
Carlsberg
Polar
Assa Abloy
Popo4Ever
8
Assa Abloy
Red Bull
Lierse
Kraftwerk
9
Binance
Lierse SK
Voyagin
Philips
10
Red Bull
Voyagin
Philips
Binance
11
Duolingo
Binance
Binance
Minions
12
Minions
Minions
Kraftwerk
Lierse SK
13
Kraftwerk
Kraftwerk
Duolingo
Duolingo
14
Voyagin
Los Pollos
Minions
Project: Africa
15
Cedevita
Project: Africa
Cedevita
Carrefour
16
Los Pollos
Podium A.
Project: Africa
Red Bull
17
Carrefour
Duolingo
Tryg
Los Pollos
18
Project: Africa
Bralirwa
Los Pollos
Voyagin
19
Tryg
Philips
Podium
Cedevita
20
Philips
Cedevita
Red Bull
Bralirwa
21
Bralirwa
Tryg
Carrefour
Tryg
22
Eurosport
Indosat
Indosat
Podium A.
23
Jura - Fiat
Eurosport
Sauber
Eurosport
24
Indosat
Carrefour
Bralirwa
Indosat
25
Podium A.
Sauber
Eurosport
Sauber
26
Sauber
Jura - Fiat
Jura - Fiat
Jura - Fiat
That was the 2021 Conglomerate preview. Thank you for your attention. We hope you enjoyed the read! Do you agree with our opinions or are we completely missevaluating everything? Let us know what you think and follow up with some fruitful discussion!
Edited by knockout on 28-10-2021 20:29
Guess I'm in for a very mediocre season. Not in trouble according to you guys, but nothing too good about the two mentions I get for Oomen and Bonifazio. Well, Novak got a mention as well, but it came from Croatia so yeah
Y'all seem convinced that Altur had a good season in 2020, i'll still argue he's the MG's worst return on a training spend.
I appreciate the confidence there are no clear relegation favourites, even if that does feel a little off for my own squad and one or two others. But i imagine your final rankings will have the expected 3 pretty close to the bottom.
Looking forwards to the team deep dives
Ollfardh wrote:
Guess I'm in for a very mediocre season. Not in trouble according to you guys, but nothing too good about the two mentions I get for Oomen and Bonifazio. Well, Novak got a mention as well, but it came from Croatia so yeah
The talking points in the next update include far more thoughts on your team and i promise that not only Croatia mentions Novak there
@TMM: I'm curious who you see as the obvious three at the bottom since i really don't think it's that obvious and looking at the two released ones (jph & redordead) and the ones you'll see later in this thread, there are some differences in the bottom 3
Regarding Altur: I think that Altur performed pretty much within margins of error of what could be expected of him - he never had great backup stats and the training didn't remove that performance ceiling. My personal wild guess is that he will score similar or potentially slightly (!) above what he scored last season.
I definitely hope that Quintana will be better than "just fine", although I do agree that climbers with more punch will likely score more points. His energy stats aren't bad at all, though, so I hope he'll be hard to drop. With a complete lack of sprint and low Acc even for a climber, he probably won't win a lot though, I agree. I hope I got the best out of his planning, even though there's unfortunately not that much choice in the PCT mountains.
Reinhardt definitely is a big risk given the change of game version. That's why I asked if anyone could explain the gameplay differences between PCM18 and PCM20 for those who don't have the new version, but either no-one noticed anything, or they just wanted to keep their findings secret... Reinhardt's acceleration will hopefully still give him the edge over some similar sprinters, though. He did very well in HC races last year, and if he can perform to a similar level, I'll be happy.
All in all, I can definitely see us as relegation candidates - and especially the lack of breakaway success that was mentioned (and that I had no idea of, so I planned with breakaway riders ^^) could really hurt us.
On the other hand, Moscon might be somewhat under the radar, given that he's "just" 79Hi - but with his Mo and energy stats, he regularly kept up with Kelderman in C2HC and C1 - HC and PTHC will obviously be a different story. Still, his OVL is higher than quite some 80/81 puncheurs', so there's hope
Looking forward to get an expert view of my team, as my own assessment is obviously biased
And as I said, would have been great to get some PCM20 insights before transfers, but well...
Fabianski wrote:
And as I said, would have been great to get some PCM20 insights before transfers, but well...
Yeah, definitely. I hoped we had learned from what happened when we went to PCM18 and suddenly half the puncheurs became useless. Maybe I'm reading too much in what Croatia is saying about sprint AI, but it does sound like something that should've been adressed earlier.
thanks for the discussion. Good to get the juices flowing for the season.
@Croatia - interested in what you mean by the the sprint AI "depends a lot on how reporting will be handled". Is there something you would like to see reporters do?
On PCM18 to PCM20 - my rerun of the Giro was available and I think highlights both issues noted: that breakaways win less and sprints are no cleaner. That probably wasn't conclusive but I think it at least provided some sign posts.
Everyone pretty much has covered their strong points. Breen once again should overperform his stats. Monsalve should have a better season with less competition than last time. They will be near the promotion spots for sure, but I'm not certain of a top 5.
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
