It's a long long race here in Japan. Mostly consists of a circuit. A long steep climb, short downhill, then another short uphill, descent, slight bump at the end of the descent, and then a flat. The finish is at the end of that last bump, which makes it an interesting setup, with a steep descent followed by a rise in the last couple of hundred meters.
First attacks are off. Kireva kicks it off, with Rachid, Novardianto, and Thwaites responding behind.
Gallego Martin and Kopfauf join the party, and we have our break of the day.
With 180 km to go, the peloton picks up the pace just slightly to stabilize the gap, which has reached a maximum of 6'45''.
Huge fast forward to 85 km to go. The gap to the break is down to 3'40'', but despite going over the climbs a bunch of times, not a single rider has been dropped from the peloton yet.
First split happens with 55 km to go, and Meurisse is the only notable caught behind. Looks like they're getting back pretty easily though.
Around the same time, Thwaites cracks first from the break.
Kopfauf is next to go over the top.
35 km left, and the lead quartet has about 1'30'' left.
Gallego Martin is gone now too, as the break looks like they're on their last legs.
King Power are coming to the front in earnest now. It's been quite a dull race so far. Much more like a stage race stage than a classic.
Kanerva is the most notable person to drop now, with just over 20 km left. Still 98 riders in the peloton, but something has to give soon.
And next time up the climb, Rakuten decides it's time to show off for the home fans and really break up this race. They have 5 riders on the front as they finally catch last remnants of the breakaway.
The front riders are all out of the saddle now. Is something going to give, or can the others match the pace?
All the domestiques crack and Kinoshita doesn't seem ready to make his move. He just slots in behind as the pace slows.
But Borges decides that it is his time to move! Evonik are now scrambling to keep in touch.
So, the Portuguese riders sits up. It's a little stretched out now, but still no favorites dropped.
But Borges isn't done, and accelerates again over the top. Both Skujins and Lopez are marking him directly this time.
15 km left to go, and the first group with a bunch of notable leaders/superdoms is off the back. Claeys, De Vos, Dieteren, Azman, Serry, Gaspar among other lesser guys.
Those first 3 guys have managed to get a small gap now, but the pace is also high behind as teams organize a chase. Will these 3 commit now or hedge their efforts?
Apparently they're committing. Skujins comes around and attacks himself on the flat, with only one full circuit left to go. Lopez has pulled off. For strategy or lack of strength?
Skujins is now alone at the front as he cracked his companion. His teammate is now paired up behind, but as you can see, the gaps are very small here. Was this the right time to strike?
Teuns is the next leader to drop from the peloton.
Huge work by Bellis to bring back all the attackers, and the peloton is the front. Bold moves, but apparently futile as we approach the final climbs with 6.5 km to go.
And unsurprisingly, it's McCarthy who launches as his teammate pulls off and they start the final climb!
The impetus at the front is seeming to force a split in the latter half of the peloton. Di Maggio, Reichenbach, Gidich, Meurisse, Guldhammer, and Penasa are among those who look to be in trouble here.
McCarthy is really feeling it and has now created some seraration in earnest. Behind him its:
Kinoshita - Lutsenko - Lopez - Jensen - Skujins
But oh no. Just when it looked like Evonik would have numbers in the selection, Lopez pulls off and sits down. Is he hurting too much from his earlier efforts? In any case, he's letting the other 3 go up the road and leave them behind.
And just like that, with the Australian still the one pushing it at the front of the race, the first three have 45 seconds on everyone else.
The chasers are caught by what's left of the peloton. A lot of guys just got dropped, and it's still in flux. The group is:
The front three have now gone through the mid climb dip and are 3 wide at 2 km, flying up the penultimate rise, before we descend into the final km. They have over a minute. These three will choose the winner.
Krizek and Izagirre are cracking, but more notably, Bobridge, Lopez, and Borges are really hurting now. At least the last two are paying for their aggression - the Aussie has no excuses. It's just looking like a terrible day for him.
Just as they crest the tip of the climb, McCarthy's shoulders start to rock. He's losing bike-lengths, while Lutsenko and Kinoshita are now dangerously sprinting out of the saddle, side by side, on an almost 15% descent! We're heading into the final kilometer.
The group behind just was not motivated to chase. Ponzi the biggest loser here as the group is even larger than it was at the beginning out the climb, and he completely let the podium slip away. Everyone's just playing for 4th now.
They're still neck and neck as they hit the bottom of the descent with only a few hundred meters left. The Rakuten rider takes the inside while the King Power rider takes the outside. It now goes uphill to the finish at a comparatively modest but definitely significant steepness.
They both have a great kick at the end of a long race, but Lutsenko is really flexing his speed, and he's pulling out ahead! There's not much rode left to come back at these speeds.
And sure enough, to the heartbreak of the Japanese spectators, Alexey Lutsenko takes victory in the 2020 Japan Cup!
Kinoshita extends his run of fantastic results here, but there's really only one truly special result in his situation - victory.
McCarthy was the weakest of these three on paper, but he was also the bravest. It was a perfectly timed move, but he may have committed just a bit too hard, and his competitors took advantage. He's still rewarded with a great podium performance.
Meanwhile, the peloton is still losing time, and are only just now heading into the descent. They're led by Kristian Dyrnes, who is perfectly happy to be in front.
And that's why. Even as he takes the outside, Dyrnes remains in pole position around the final bend. Ponzi, Meurisse, and Guldhammer are next in line.
4th for Dyrnes is a great result for Nordstrom. The Norwegian champ punched above his weight here and played his cards right.
Not so much for Ponzi. The best puncheur on paper really can't afford to miss the decisive move like that, let alone softpedal afterward. Top 5's are still never terrible given how even these fields can be, but it's still not ideal.
Compare that to Meurisse, who looked to be in major trouble several times throughout the day, but handled positioning well enough when it mattered most to take home 6th for Xero, another overperformer.
Guldhammer likewise definitely did enough to justify his participation. It was touch and go for a while, but he ends up a quite solid 7th.
Skujins will definitely be angry in 8th, especially as the first of his team. Hard to tell if it was a bad day, or he just cooked himself with the early move. Following Borges's attack probably wasn't the error, but trying to counter and force a gap on the flat did not prove worthwhile.
He beats Betancourt, who proved to be Polar's leader today basically by default. He stayed at the front and was relevant, though anonymous.
A terrific surprise for Masnada to beat Yates to the last spot in the top 10. Teuns cracked much earlier than expected, but the young(ish) Italian picked up the slack. The Brit, on the other hand, won't be too pleased to be beaten by more of a climber hybrid. Nevertheless, 11th is decently close to his true talent level.
Benoot takes 12th as the later guys are forced to navigate lapped riders during the sprint. Siskevicius next after him.
Another 3 way sprint for the top 15 ends up with Bellis, Jensen, and Lopez in 14th-16th respectively. 3 very different races for these guys. Bellis did his super domestique job, got his teammate a podium, and scores for himself too. Jensen followed the right move, but the wrong wheel, and went from a likely top 5 to at the back of a group sprint for his bad luck. But Lopez, and his manager, will be more disappointed than anyone. Evonik brought two top leaders here, and burned them both before the final act. Terrible strategy and execution.
Borges shadows them behind. He kicked off the party, and predictably paid for it. When you go that hard from that far out, you know you're either gonna win or blow up. He rolled the dice, and got the more likely result.
Actually, wait. There's one guy who will definitely be more disappointed than Evonik. A couple of months ago we saw Bobridge at his absolute best in Slovenie. This was pretty damn far in the other direction. 19th is just insanely bad in this field. He trails fan favorite Krizek to the line.
Some more notables in the next group. Penasa is strong, but just not a puncheur, and Izagirre is not one to appreciate a race decided by a sudden, violent surge.
Oh, and off camera, just an atrocious race for Schreurs. No one expects him to be with the very best, but 25th? Not good for GCN.
