I don’t want to waste too many words ahead of what is the decisive stage in most - but not all - ways for this Tour, so let me just leave you with a few quick pointers:
Smith has a lead of 1 point over Chiarello in the KoM classification.
Herklotz leads the points classification by 9 over Van Stayen and looks to extend that by as much as possible today.
Novak really just has to make sure he doesn’t blow up completely in order to keep his white jersey, he’s 7 minutes ahead of Geoghegan Hart.
And lastly, this is the GC as it stands right now:
1
Silvio Herklotz
Team Puma - SAP
81h31'44
2
Angel Madrazo
Gazelle
+ 23
3
Romain Sicard
Air France - KLM
+ 32
4
Patrick Schelling
Team UBS
+ 1'39
5
Simon Spilak
Generali
+ 2'14
6
Daan Olivier
Aegon - Peroni
+ 2'22
7
Louis Meintjes
cycleYorkshire
+ 2'39
8
William Chiarello
Evonik - ELKO
+ 3'50
9
Joseph Dombrowski
eBuddy
+ 4'03
10
Primoz Roglic
Isostar - Specialized
+ 4'18
11
Natnael Berhane
ISA - Hexacta
+ 4'29
12
Lachlan Morton
Bennelong - Mitchelton
+ 4'38
13
Ryan Eastman
Azteca - NBCSN
+ 4'57
14
Warren Barguil
Moser - Sygic
s.t.
15
Fredrik Strand Galta
Aker - MOT
+ 6'02
16
Jose Alarcon
Volvo acc. by Spotify
+ 6'16
17
Nairo Quintana
Rakuten Pro Cycling
+ 8'52
18
Matvey Mamykin
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
+ 11'34
19
Ignacio Jesus Prado
Moser - Sygic
+ 18'10
20
Domen Novak
Isostar - Specialized
+ 18'15
Color me shocked: Smith is at it again. Of course he wants to defend his jersey with all that he’s got. Novak leads the way and, also unsursprisingly, Mamykin follows.
It’s been a long, long time coming but when Campero attacks shortly afterwards, Quintana counters. It’s the last chance to have any meaningful impact on this race and this is for sure the way to do it. Stoltz (?) and Yzeiraj (??) follow, as do Schleck and Budyak.
But they can’t get away. Quintana fights, but he just doesn’t have the explosiveness on this slightly downhill flat street and the peloton does not seem to want to let him go. Nesset, Galta and Chaves have found his wheel, a nice group on paper …
… and once they hit an actual flat bit and Stoltz takes over, they do get a small gap. That’s something to work with! Elissonde and Barta have latched on, Carapaz, Valls and Prado attack in the distance.
Foliforov, Vangstad and Affonso go after them as well but they have to spend a lot to catch up to the group that has already started to work together.
But they manage to do that and at the intermediate sprint they also start to catch up to the original trio. There are 17 riders now in front, some very good climbers, some less so. Smith is set up perfectly to defend his KoM jersey to carry it into Paris. Galta is the best in the GC, 15th currently at + 6’02, which is less than 2 minutes outside of the Top 10. Quintana, 2 places behind him in 17th, is already at + 8’52, Mamykin another place further behind is at + 11’34, so they will likely not make the biggest strides today.
Affonso had the most work to catch up to the group on the flat, which didn’t suit him at all and he left too much on the road. Despite being a good climber, he quickly falls behind on the first slopes of the Col de la Croix de Fer.
The peloton already tackled that climb yesterday, but from a different side. This approach is very unsteady with some of the toughest parts in the final 5 kilometers - of almost 29, which is brutal.
In the peloton, Gazelle and Air France - KLM lead the way and they keep very close tabs on the breakaway. The gap has not yet exceeded 2 minutes.
Schleck and Quintana do a lot of the work in the group and many riders are unable to follow. Among them is Smith - this might not be an issue, but 11 riders get points across the summit, which could leave the door open for Chiarello, as only 8 currently keep up with the leaders and the peloton is still riding hard.
Mamykin and Galta are with Smith here, which is very surprising on the one hand considering their skillset, and also not surprising at all on the other, when you think about how much time they have spent ahead of the peloton over these last days and even weeks.
Ahead of them, Foliforov, Vangstad, Chaves and Novak are falling behind. Energy conservation is key for the latter here. Stoltz and Yzeiraj are obviously gone at this point already as well.
Chaves however is far from done, he attacks to get back to the front. On the way, he overtakes Quintana, who apparently had done too much in his intial attempt to break free from the peloton and early on this climb. It’s a poignant encapsulation of what has been an overall frustrating race for him and his team.
But wait a second! The pace slows down and Quintana and even Galta and Mamykin follow Chaves back to the group.
Smith is caught again by the peloton. The leading group of 11 is still just 2’30 ahead of the peloton - the Australian needs all of them to stay ahead.
Make that a group of 10. Chaves falls behind again.
3 kilometers to the summit and the peloton catches up with Vangstad and Novak. Foliforov still holds a small gap and Chaves is a good minute ahead, but if he gets caught, Chiarello might have a chance to get that one valuable point he needs.
No one in the breakaway shows any interest in those points, Schleck takes 20 kind of incidentally. In the distance, you can see that Chaves is still ahead of the peloton - ahead enough?
Yes. Smith must feel pretty relieved, but he isn’t safe yet. Chiarello could also score with a Top 11 finish, which is within his capabilities.
The peloton is still 82 riders strong as they cross the summit, yet they managed to hold the breakaway under 3 minutes. Now, they will surely want to keep them at least as close on the downhill and flat to ensure a big showdown of the top favorites on the final climb.
Groselj on the other hand would like them to slow down. He’s the last man on the road, currently 20 minutes behind the leaders and around 1 behind his teammate Marin. With how short the stage is, the time limit won’t be very generous, I fear.
Now then, here we are! L’Alpe d’Huez is the place where the 2020 Tour de France will be decided. 10 riders lead the way …
… but the peloton is not far behind. 1’15, to be precise. Gazelle, with occasional support from eBuddy and Team UBS, have done the bulk of the work.
Alpe d’Huez needs no introduction, but here are some numbers. It’s a really tough climb, but toughest in its first half. Want to make a big impact? You better go early.
Wow, I didn’t expect it that early, but this man really does need to make a big move! With still 10 kilometers to go, 9th overall Dombrowski attacks!
Stüssi immediately comes to the front, Herklotz and Morton right behind him. Madrazo is a few positions further behind, his team has done the vast majority of the pacemaking so far but now he is isolated.
There has not been any attack from the breakaway at all and Dombrowski goes past them with ease but look at that! Stüssi, Herklotz and Morton have come with him, the others have been caught off guard! Sicard and Madrazo lead the peloton now, have they just blundered away their chances at a Tour win?
Maybe not quite yet. It was a very savvy move by the Puma duo, but the peloton manages to latch on to the back of the breakaway, which kind of closes the gap. Immediately, Morton attacks - can Herklotz counter to keep up the pressure?
At least not right now. Galta and Quintana try to go after Morton and Herklotz wants to follow, but Madrazo and Sicard are right back in his slipstream.
Novak is falling behind now, but lucky for him, Geoghegan Hart was part of the Gazelle work force and is a bit further down the road already. The Isostar rider should have no issues defending the white jersey.
More consequential is this, though: Schelling is the first big GC rider to lose touch. He started the day in 4th place, but that was deceiving after his breakaway spectacular - he has not been a true Top 10 climber so far when competing head to head with the others and it shows again here. He has a buffer of around 2’30 to the end of the Top 10, but he has to keep fighting.
Galta and Quintana did not stay at the front of the group very long, now Dombrowski has taken over again, the Top 3 and Spilak right behind him.
It’s getting more and more selective now. Eastman falls behind alongside Vasyliv and Prado, not quite the company he wants to find himself in (climbing-wise, of course). He might struggle to keep his 13th place. Only a few positions ahead is Berhane.
The Eritrean doesn’t look very fresh anymore either, he rides alongside Schleck and Mamykin, but Galta and notably Roglic ahead of him can’t follow the pace anymore either. Roglic is 10th in the GC, but with Morton (12th) and Barguil (14th) ahead, he might not be able to defend that. There are still almost 6 kilometers in the climb though, so a lot can happen.
Ahead of Roglic, there are currently 12 riders on the road:
Morton
Dombrowski
Herklotz
Madrazo
Sicard
Quintana
Spilak
Olivier
Alarcon
Barguil
Meintjes
Chiarello
Now, attentive readers might recall that 11 riders get mountain points at the top of the Alpe d’Huez. And Chiarello only needs a single one. Nailbiters all around today, I tell you.
The unfortunate thing for Chiarello is that he might just end up number 12. He loses Meintjes’ wheel - now he has to hope that he can find a steady pace and maybe someone in front of him cracks. Smith has his fingers crossed for the opposite, of course.
A brief look back reveales that Schelling is already more than 2 minutes behind the leaders. It’s not looking good for his Top 10 chances.
Morton is caught and we’re back to our usual situation - everyone’s looking at each other. Who will make the next move?
The group around Berhane, Galta, Roglic and Eastman, as well as Chiarello, who is still ahead of them, hope that they take their sweet time, that’s for sure. They’re currently around 1’30 behind the leaders.
Herklotz oviously doesn’t have to do anything but cover any attacks and Madrazo and Sicard still wait for the right moment. So it’s up to Morton to do something again, just as Chiarello was about to catch up again. 3 kilometers to go.
2 kilometers - it’s now or never for Madrazo and Sicard, they need a time gap! Quintana, Meintjes, Barguil and Olivier could not keep up anymore after Morton’s attack, Alarcon is on his last legs.
It seems like we might not see that big final attack on yellow anymore. Looking at Sicard, it’s clear that he simply couldn’t do it. And maybe Madrazo was sapped by that early maneuver of Herklotz as well. Final kilometer, it’s getting a bit less steep now.
Morton and Dombrowski lead what is now the final quintet into the home straight. Madrazo accelerates …
… but look at that, what an image that is the synthesis of this entire race: 4 men with their head down, one out of the saddle!
Silvio Herklotz has reached the summit, literally as well as figuratively. Celebrating his 3rd stage win, he lets his yellow jersey shine!
Madrazo finishes second and you can see from his posture that more just wasn’t possible today. He rode a great race and simply was bested by another great rider.
In these last two days, Morton and Dombrowski showed what they’re capable off. After an underwhelming first 18 days though, they now have to wait for Olivier and Meintjes to see where they end up.
Spilak has consistently been the fourth man and is consequently 4th overall in the end. Considering the strength of the riders ahead of him, it’s a good result and certainly a bit of redemption after the Giro.
Sicard’s performance over the entire three weeks, including 2 stage wins, cannot be praised enough. In what was probably the last chance of his career, he finally gets rewarded with a Grand Tour podium place. What a ride!
Alarcon had his down days, but he’s also done very well in stretches, including today. Depending on what a few riders behind him do, specifically Chiarello, Barguil and Schelling, he even has a shot at getting back into the Top 10, but either way, he ends his campaign on a high note and finishes 7th today.
Then, the group with Meintjes and Olivier sprints to the line. The two should have enough of a buffer to keep Dombrowski and Morton behind them, but Meintjes trails Olivier by just 17 seconds in the GC - and the Dutch is not looking well here.
But it’s just enough to hold on and finish with the same time. With Schelling dropping as far as he does (he’s currently estimated around 3 minutes behind this and more than 4 behind the Madrazo group), Olivier will end the Tour in 5th place overall, Meintjes will finish 6th - fantastic results for both of them.
Dombrowski ends up 7th, then, and Morton 8th. Barguil stays ahead of Alarcon in the GC and might enter the Top 10, which depends on how long it takes both Chiarello (who was just over a minute ahead of him in the GC) and Schelling (- 3’19) to come to the line. Great performance today by the French. And Quintana gets a small highlight as well, finishing 10th after an otherwise thoroughly unremarkable race.
Chiarello really struggles struggles in the final kilometers. And it gets really tough for him: Not only does he lose out on the polkadots jersey by a single point in general and a single place at the finish here today, but he also falls behind Alarcon, and therefore out of the Top 10, by a mere 6 seconds (depending on what Schelling does he might drop to 12th). A brutal day, but if you’d told him before the race that he’s going win a stage, come second in another, finish 11th or 12th overall and score some depth points from the KoM competition, you’d assume he’d have taken that in a heartbeat.
Shortly thereafter, Eastman, Berhane, Roglic, Galta and Schleck reach the finish line. None of them end up in the Top 10 of the GC, which is the biggest blow to Roglic, who started the day in 10th, looked fantastic in stretches earlier in the race and then, looking at it now, kind of threw it all away with his attacks yesterday. But even if his ultimate GC position may be a disappointment, he’s been an invigorating element of this race and deserves some recognition for that alone.
Stüssi, Carapaz, Elissonde and Mamykin finish next. The Russian defends his Top 20 spot nicely.
And then we wait for Schelling, who comes in behind Prado (who gets the distinction of finishing as the best domestique in the GC in 19th place), Valls and Nesset. He falls behind all of Spilak, Olivier, Meintjes, Dombrowski and Morton, that much is sure, but can he keep Barguil and / or Alarcon behind him to stay in the Top 10?
No! He drops even below Chiarello into 12th overall. A big loss, for sure, but ultimately more reflective of his performances over the past three weeks.
Novak finishes 34th today, not his best performance but a stellar campaign in the Alps sees him winning the white jersey and ending up 21st in the GC.
Only a few seconds later, Smith crosses the line. By the skin of his teeth, he hangs on to the mountain jersey. What a race it’s been for him!
Herklotz’s stage win means that Van Stayen now needs to finish at least second tomorrow to regain control of the points classification. I say at least because it’s 29 points between them, 30 points for 2nd place and we’ve seen Herklotz in the Top 15 of sprint stages twice before already …
Impressively, everyone finishes within the time limit, even Groselj who fell behind so early. 173 riders will make their way to Paris tonight.
What worthy finale for this exciting GC battle. No breakaway interfered with the outcome of today’s stage, the top favorites duked it out one last time and the man who’s been the defining rider of this race from Stage 3 on showed his supremacy in the biggest moment. Herklotz is certainly a worthy winner. In the end, Madrazo could only really display his theoretically superior climbing ability once when he distanced the German on day 10, but Herklotz quickly recovered to deny Madrazo the historic achievement of three time and back-to-back Tour de France victories. With his third stage win, Herklotz is now in a position to add the icing on the cake with a potential points classification win as well.
The rest of the general classification has taken a shape that is somewhat more akin to what we expected pre-race. The main breakaway beneficiaries have been pushed out of the Top 10 and while there are certainly still over- and underperformers, the Top 10 largely consists of the riders we would have expected to be there.
Sicard must be acknowledged as one of the major positive surprises of the race. He’s consistently been a Top 3 climber and really earned this podium spot, a major highlight late in his storied career. Olivier and Meintjes will also certainly be very happy with their performance and final result. All three of them are indications that this route has ultimately favored climbers who double as solid to good puncheurs, although not everyone has benefited from this equally.
Smith, meanwhile, was one (other rider’s) place away from losing the mountain classification not once but twice today, but he made it through and is another who deserves to be mentioned as one of the stand outs of this race.
The same is true either way for Van Stayen, but the degree of that will be decided tomorrow, one of two major decisions left, the other being who gets one of the more prestigious stage wins a sprinter can achieve – and those two are obviously interlinked.
With all that being said, let’s hope for an exciting and incident-free conclusion to this race tomorrow. Paris is calling - see you there!
Tour de France 
