After Schelling’s parforce run yesterday threw another wrench in the GC calculations, leaving him just 7 seconds short of the overall lead, the final two days in the alps are now in territory that might be a bit less condusive to breakaway success, mostly due to shorter overall distance and longer final climbs.
Also, with the exception of Quintana and Schleck, all major pre-race contenders are within 5 minutes of Herklotz, so you’d think that such a strong breakaway like yesterday might not be allowed again today. Then again, Schelling was just under 5 minutes behind yellow as well when he escaped, so who knows.
There are also 62 mountain points to be scored today. Smith has a pretty firm hold on the jersey, but with that many points, it’s still somewhat open. Plus, the Australian has been in so many breakaways that at some point, he just has to run out of energy … right?
Maybe at some point, but that point does not seem to be today. He follows Chernetskiy and Lastra, also seemingly never-tiring.
Did I say the major contenders might be done attacking? Well, that was obviously wrong. Alarcon, currently 16th, and Roglic, currently 7th (!) take off. Surely, the peloton can’t let that happen … right?
Puma and Generali definitely don’t want to, but those are some strong climbers riding away at the front. The duo quickly catches up to the original trio while the domestiques are scrambling to keep them close.
This is all a very worrying development for some of the really bad climbers. Less than 10 kilometers into the stage, Ligthart falls behind, Vlatos and Losch follow soon. A tough day lies ahead of them.
Meanwhile, Lastra and Chernetskiy already can’t keep up anymore at the front. The remaining trio only has 1’20 on the peloton at the moment.
Stüssi is the driving force in the peloton, he brings Lastra and Chernetskiy back into the fold quickly. But he won’t be able to catch the leaders all on his own.
Smith’s running-out-of-energy-moment might still come today after all, he is dropped by Alarcon and Roglic. But what are those two thinking? That they’ll be able to make it all the way just the two of them? They don’t seem to lack confidence, that’s for sure.
With Stüssi seemingly done for now, the contenders actually do some work for the first time here as Madrazo takes over. Just to reiterate - we’re still 124 kilometers from the finish, and those aren’t easy 124 kilometers!
At the front, Roglic has to relent as well. He now has to be really careful not to crater like we’ve seen other riders do before him. There’s a long descending and flat stretch after this climb to recuperate, but still.
With Madrazo leading the way, there’s actually a gap behind the first 16 riders! Chiarello, Berhane, Mamykin and Schleck are the main riders not present.
Madrazo easily catches up to Smith, Alarcon is still 1’30 ahead but that gap is shrinking.
Roglic is caught soon. All domestiques who had previously held on are now gone, leaving only the team captains together in this group. The main peloton is already more than a minute behind. You’d have to think that things will slow down once Alarcon is brought back - Roglic will certainly hope so, looking at his body language -, but we can’t be sure of anything. Still 3 kilometers to go until the summit.
The group continues to fall apart under Madrazo’s heavy pressure. First Galta, then Meintjes, Barguil and Eastman drop. Roglic also falls behind immediately.
Alarcon is caught, how do things proceed from here?
They do indeed slow down dramatically. Pretty quickly, even the big peloton catches up, led by Berhane and Novak. 1,5 kilometers from the summit, we’re kind of back to square one, but with all the energy spent, also kind of not. What a wild beginning to this stage, and I also can’t help but feel somewhat relieved to see that the major contenders actually do have it in them to do some work themselves.
The dropping pace has allowed both Chiarello and Smith, the two main KoM contenders, to come to the front. But while Chiarello can muster a nice acceleration, Smith simply doesn’t have it in him. Alarcon seemingly has not learnt his lesson yet and attacks as well.
Because, of course, Madrazo picks up the pace again immediately. Chiarello might be annoyed by what looks like a pointless attack from the Venezuelan champ that costs him 4 points, but he collects 12 at least, bringing his deficit down to 11.
I mean … what do you even say to that? In the first slopes of the descent, Roglic attacks again as well.
The two reconnect and actually get a gap of 1’20 again, but Stüssi has found his way back to the front of the peloton and he’s not alone this time as Karnulin, Ji, Geoghegan Hart and Vasyliv line up behind him.
The high pace leads to a split in the main group following that small speedbump and some of the major GC riders are caught behind. They include Olivier, Barguil, Eastman, Meintjes, Galta and Sicard, some of whom have to work themselves now.
The two up front are also not the greatest rouleurs, so it’s no wonder the gap quickly gets cut in half to 40 seconds. They do collect a few bonus seconds though. None of the contenders care about the remaining 2, they go to Vasyliv.
eBuddy with Brambilla and Bennelong with Power and Bayly chip in now as well and they bring the two escapees back.
This is obviously also good news for the group that fell behind the split, as they finally make it back once the pace drops. Koep and Ciccone had done an admirable job to keep the distance close. This ascent is the small hill after the intermediate sprint, by the way. We still have 12 kilometers to go until the Col de la Croix de Fer.
Things were calm for a bit, now we have another attack. And thankfully, it’s neither Alarcon nor Roglic but Boily who goes for it. He certainly might get a bit more leeway.
Presented without comment.
While Alarcon is caught quickly, Roglic gets a gap of 50 seconds again, but this does feel a bit pointless. Boily is another minute ahead.
The peloton doesn’t react as intensely this time, but that’s also because Roglic really doesn’t seem to pose the biggest threat in his current condition. Prado sets a modest pace and keeps him within 40 seconds pretty easily.
Indeed, Roglic is back with still 13 kilometers left to go on the climb. However, no one else has any interest in doing something now, so he just kind of lingers at the front of the pack, which is back to 90-ish riders, indicating the slower pace.
This is of course wonderful news for Boily, who quickly builds a lead of 3 minutes.
Gazelle, Puma and Air France share the workload in the peloton. They don’t go super fast, but don’t relax completely either. The gap to Boily slowly grows to 4 minutes, but then starts coming down a bit again.
And then it goes up again a little, he crosses the summit with pretty much exactly 4 minutes of a lead, also collecting 20 mountain points. He’s got 48 now, not enough to come close to the lead, but another 10 at the next climb would put him in the Top 3, which is at least something.
The Top 2 of course are these guys. Chiarello attacked from the peloton, but Smith was very attentive and followed immediately, now in a great position.
It’s a close one, but Chiarello holds him off. The standing is now 93-84 for Smith. They also create a gap of around 40 seconds to the peloton, let’s see if they try to carry that into the next climb. As the 6th overall, Chiarello can’t be allowed to go too far.
And they also very obviously don’t try, which is probably the correct move. Boily’s gap, despite being a stellar downhill rider, is down to 3 minutes again.
After not lifting a finger over the past two days, Gazelle are starting to come into their own as a dominant force in the peloton, a sight we were so used to seeing last year. Boily’s lead continues to shrink as they mount the Col du Mollard.
Chiarello then attacks to collect more mountain points and Smith is nowhere to be seen!
With these 8 points, Chiarello comes within a single point of the KoM lead. We’re in for a heartbeat finish in that classification once again!
Schleck seems to have a terrible day after yesterday’s breakaway efforts. With still more than 80 riders in the pack, he falls behind. Goos drops back to help him, but that’s not looking good for his Top 20 place. Or maybe it’s just a setup for another attack tomorrow?
On the descent, a split appears in the peloton. Mamykin, Berhane and, kind of unsurprising at this point, Roglic are back there. Despite Dekker working, Olivier did position himself well this time. The gap is at 40 seconds, there’s a chance they will make it back until the foot of the final climb.
It’s close, but they’re not quite there yet as we head into the ascent to La Toussuire. Bennelong now show their colors at the front of the peloton - Morton currently stands on a for his ambitions dysmal 13th place overall, so he definitely has to try something today.
This is what we’re looking at for the final climb today. Not super steep overall, but with some pretty steep sections in the final third and also just very long.
Boily starts the ascent with just over 2 minutes on the peloton. It’s not impossible that he makes it if the favorites are just staring at each other again, but with quite a few domestiques still left, it feels unlikely that he has a chance.
For a while, the pack did slow down though, and the gap went back up to almost 3 minutes. The two main groups also reunited, so we’re back to a large peloton of 74 riders. But then Geoghegan Hart moves to the front and the pace picks up again.
And here we go! Just past the 10 kilometers banner, Olivier attacks and Meintjes follows!
Galta, Eastman, Dombrowski and Barguil try to break free as well! The others stay calm for now, Gazelle still working the front of the pack.
Karnulin is a beast, he brings the quartet back immediately. Olivier and Meintjes have a lead of 30 seconds, though. Herklotz and Madrazo are in second and third position in the peloton already.
They catch up with Boily and reach the short flat bit with 1’25 on the peloton. This feels like a good time to have a quick reminder of the GC as it stands before today:
1
Silvio Herklotz
Team Puma - SAP
76h45'12
2
Patrick Schelling
Team UBS
+ 7
3
Angel Madrazo
Gazelle
+ 15
4
Romain Sicard
Air France - KLM
+ 24
5
Simon Spilak
Generali
+ 1'22
6
William Chiarello
Evonik - ELKO
+ 1'39
7
Primoz Roglic
Isostar - Specialized
+ 2'52
8
Natnael Berhane
ISA - Hexacta
+ 2'57
9
Joseph Dombrowski
eBuddy
+ 3'11
10
Fredrik Strand Galta
Aker - MOT
+ 3'37
11
Ryan Eastman
Azteca - NBCSN
+ 3'43
12
Daan Olivier
Aegon - Peroni
+ 3'44
13
Lachlan Morton
Bennelong - Mitchelton
+ 3'46
14
Warren Barguil
Moser - Sygic
+ 4'06
15
Louis Meintjes
cycleYorkshire
+ 4'09
16
Jose Alarcon
Volvo acc. by Spotify
+ 4'48
17
Matvey Mamykin
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
+ 4'54
18
Nairo Quintana
Rakuten Pro Cycling
+ 6'41
As you can see, Olivier and Meintjes aren’t big threats to the those at the very top of the standings, but still, with the gaps as close as they are, they could move up considerably.
And their gap continues to grow, because Karnulin has nothing left and the leaders play coy again.
Boily can’t keep up with the other two 4,5 kilometers from the finish line. But it’s been a valiant effort, close to the most Festina could hope for on a stage like this. Plus, he’s still 2 minutes ahead of the peloton.
We’ve seen this many times, but the peloton simply can’t bring itself to really push forward. The gap to the two leaders grows to 3 minutes, putting both of them in podium contention all of a sudden. Meintjes wants more, he attacks!
And finally, finally, finally, someone does something. Sicard knows he needs to make a move to have a shot at the podium - or more - himself. He attacks and Madrazo and Herklotz go after him - we’re in the fight for the overall win now, friends!
Eastman, Schelling (in defense of his 2nd place) and Barguil are the first to react and try to counter.
Dombrowski, Spilak and Morton, the main pre-race contenders for 3rd to 5th, take charge of the pursuit. But the trio around Herklotz is already a minute ahead.
Turning our attention back to the front, Meintjes has brought some distance between himself and Olivier. He will soon enter the final 2 kilometers.
The aforementioned trio around Spilak gets a gap to the rest of the chasers, but Quintana and, surprisingly, Novak accelerate to catch up.
Novak’s leader Roglic still hangs on behind Alarcon and Galta, having recovered from the early attacks at least a little, it seems. 6th overall Chiarello is a bit further behind, not looking all that well. Berhane is ahead to his left.
Under the flamme rouge, Olivier has almost caught up with Meintjes again! They’re now just 2 minutes ahead of the yellow jersey trio, so no podium dreams anymore, but they can still make a big jump in the GC.
Schelling will have to say goodbye to his podium ambitions as well, they are some 40 seconds behind group Herklotz, but he still performs admirably well and they keep their chasers at bay for now.
Madrazo leads the trio past Boily but now Herklotz attacks! Could this be his big move towards the consolidation of his GC lead?
Into the final 800 meters, Olivier moves past Meintjes. He looks a lot fresher, too!
Herklotz couldn’t get away, all three of them seem to be at their absolute limit. But even if no one can attack anymore, there are still 8 bonus seconds left at the finish. Also, it’s just really impressive that Sicard continues to keep up with the two.
Back to the front where Olivier goes for his decisive move, but Meintjes goes out of the saddle again!
He draws level with only a few meters left …
… and takes the stage win! Just a fantastic performance by both of them, with the slightly better end for Lous Meintjes. That’s the second South African stage win of the race, too!
Herklotz leads the podium group towards the line. A third place would be massive for him.
Behind them, Dombrowski, Morton and Spilak catch up with Eastman, Barguil, Schelling and now also Boily.
They are some 45 seconds ahead of a group of 7 led by Quintana and containing all remaining Top 16 riders. Mamykin is the best GC rider to be significantly distanced.
But with that out of the way, let’s focus on the fight for third. Herklotz is still ahead, Sicard does not look all that great, can Madrazo still do something?
The sprint begins! Both are able to get one more acceleration out of their tired legs!
We’re used to seeing it by now and indeed, Herklotz wins the sprint and extends his lead in the GC to 23 seconds over Madrazo and 32 over Sicard - we’re in for one heck of a finale tomorrow! This does seem to cement all three firmly on the podium and deservedly so. They cross the line 1’18 behind Meintjes.
Schelling is struggling now which consolidates the podium even more. Spilak and Dombrowski lead the way in the group ahead.
We would have expected much more from these three over the course of the race so far, but at least they establish themselves as the strongest riders behind the Top 3 today. 44 seconds behind Herklotz, Spilak finishes 6th ahead of Dombrowski and Morton. The fact that the latter two still only move up to 9th and 12th tells you how underwhelming they’ve been so far.
Spilak just barely defends his 5th place against Olivier and Meintjes and also comes closer to Schelling. Barguil had a really good day and finishes within the same time as them, then there’s a small gap.
Eastman also does pretty well today all things considered, he finishes 10th, another 22 seconds behind
Schelling ends up 11th 18 seconds later, but gets caught by Berhane, Roglic and Alarcon. Not a great result for the latter two, but considering what they did earlier, it could have gone so, so much worse. Roglic drops from 7th to 10th, Alarcon remains in 16th place but further removed from the Top 10. Boily ends up in 14th place today.
Quintana really broke down in the last kilometer after looking pretty strong earlier on. He finishes behind Elissonde and alongside Chiarello, who drops from 6th to 8th overall. Galta comes in another 14 seconds later, he goes down to 15th overall.
Novak consolidates his claim to the white jersey with a great performance today. He finishes 20th, but more importantly 1’45 ahead of the following group containing many of the top domestiques including, crucially, Geoghegan Hart.
Mamykin fell even behind that group but only loses a single place in the GC. And anyway, that’s really is just a setup for another attack tomorrow, isn’t it? Schleck on the other hand loses 34 minutes today, which drops him down to 43rd overall. Certainly another candidate for an attack tomorrow, but that’s only if he even has any energy left at all.
Lastly, we also have a massive number of abandons due to the time limit today. Thomas makes it literally 3 seconds before time runs out, Antonijevic and Markus fall short by maybe 100 meters. In total, a whopping 17 riders have to leave the race today. They are:
Nizzolo
Vlatos
Fominykh
Dillier
Bernaudeau
Andersen
Kwok
Jans
Speirs
Markus
Ligthart
Vermote
Rajovic
Antonijevic
Losch
O'Shea
Stash
Alarcon and Roglic won’t be very popular with those guys. Nizzolo is the most consequential considering the role he could have played in Paris, replicating a similar scenario that Stauff faced last year. Teammate Vlatos leaves the Lanterne Rouge vacant, which goes to Wolf, who miraculously managed to survive today and is now last place by more than an hour.
Meanwhile, on the other end of the GC, Herklotz has now brought himself in a position where bonus seconds alone are no longer sufficient to get him out of yellow - both Madrazo and Sicard would need a time gap in addition to any potential time bonifications they might collect. Once again: We head into the final mountain stage with three very, very capable climbers all within half a minute of each other - what a thrill, this race.
Schelling managed to stay at least in 4th place of the GC, 35 seconds ahead of Spilak - but that’s less of a gap than they had between them today, so advantage Spilak, on paper. Olivier and Meintjes are just 8 and 25 seconds behind him though, so it’s going to be a tight race between those guys as well.
Then there’s a gap of 1’11 to Chiarello, who heads a group of 7 riders from 8th to 14th place who are all within a single minute. Galta, Alarcon and Quintana are on the outside looking in and might be the most likely candidates for another breakaway tomorrow. But with a more compact profile - 110 kilometers and only two climbs, the second one leading up to the finish -, chances for another breakaway success are debatable.
What’s that, you say? The mountain classification is led by two riders with just a single point between them? Oh my. Indeed, Smith has 93 points to Chiarello’s 92. The latter is still 8th in the GC, so not a likely breakaway candidate, but with only 2 HC classifications tomorrow, points from the peloton are very much a possibility, if Smith does not get into the break.
The two classifications with the least drama are both led by Isostar: 15 minutes of a lead in the team classification and 7 for Novak in the U25. Now, a lead like that hasn’t been enough for Godoy earlier, but Novak has looked just so solid over the past three days. But of course, Roglic is still fighting for his Top 10 spot, so even they aren’t excluded from biting there nails tomorrow.
We’re going to have to cover a lot of bases, but if this is not an exciting position from which to head into the final mountain stage of a Tour de France, I don’t know what is. So, tomorrow then. Same place, same time.
Tour de France 
