Quite a way to start of a stage, huh? The Col Bayard begins at Kilometer 0. It’s one of 7 categorized climbs of the day, one of 2 Cat 2 climbs. The main attraction today is the Col du Glandon, the first HC mountain of the Alps.
Looking at the stage profile, it’s hard not to think that this is another one for a breakaway - which would be the sixth in a row, if you count Smith’s late attack two days ago. Too few teams have shown interest in - or capabilities of - bringing the breakaways back over the past few days and it would be a bit of a surprise if that changes today. But you never know.
Some of the bigger names have started to show up in the groups yesterday and I would expect that trend to continue today. There are still plenty of strong riders outside of the Top 10 to 15 looking for a way (back) in. And the KoM competition is of course also still wide open. 64 points can be collected at most today, which alone is more than Abreu’s 57.
We start at 7,5% here, so it’s good to be wearing a jersey and starting in the front row - both Abreu and Novak take advantage as they follow Eastman, who makes a move as predicted after his late attack yesterday.
Mamykin tries again today as well, followed by the second Isostar rider Bizkarra, then Ivars, Schleck, Dyball and the insatiable Smith.
The biggest name yet is Schelling, 14th in the GC, followed by 15th overall and yesterday’s winner Chiarello. Schlegel initiated this attack, Peters wants in as well.
It wouldn’t be a breakaway without Grieg, would it? Nesset, who fell just short as the 4th place yesterday, follows Zakarin, then Carapaz tries again as well.
Rakuten were not present in yesterday’s breakaway, much to their dismay, so they want to make sure they join today. But is Kratochvila the best man for the job? He tries, anyway, in a group alongside Elissonde, Gillett, Dennis, Calmejane and Poljanec.
That’s 23 riders ahead of the peloton now, the initial trio around Eastman is already more than 3 minutes ahead! Lots of catching up to do for these guys, and we’ve seen yesterday with Godoy, among others, that that can go south pretty quickly and harshly.
But at least that seems to be it for now with the attacks. A group of 12 soon forms at the front with everyone up until Schelling, Chiarello and Schlegel. Peters still lags behind a bit, as does everyone else who had attacked, but the pace at the front is not super high. We’re still more than 3 kilometers from the summit, basically just 5 kilometers into the stage, and the leaders already have more than 4 minutes on the peloton.
The last six attackers struggle a bit to catch up. Just as they’re about to, Mamykin attacks for the mountain points. We’ll take a closer look at all the riders and ranking implications once everything has settled down a bit after the climb.
I’ve mentioned this before, but Abreu simply isn’t the best climber and it shows again here. He can’t keep up with the accelerations at the front - it’s going to be tough for him to collect many points today, although maybe he has better luck on the Cat 3 climbs.
And he really has to, if he wants to have any chance to keep the jersey for another day. Schlegel wins the sprint to go up to 52 mountain points, Smith collects 6 to go to 56 - just one point short. What a Tour this has been and still can be for him.
Gillett, Poljanec and Dennis did not have a great time on that climb, they lose contact with all the other breakaway riders. They’re still 6 minutes ahead of the peloton (which is really taking it easy), but also 50 seconds behind the group ahead, which is a tough task to overcome.
But they do so after a while, so we can finally take a look at all 23 escapees in all their glory. Once more in rough order of climbing ability, they are:
Eastman
Schelling
Schleck
Chiarello
Carapaz
Smith
Nesset
Mamykin
Elissonde
Novak
Power
Schlegel
Dyball
Bizkarra
Kratochvila
Dennis
Abreu
Gillett
Calmejane
Zakarin
Ivars
Peters
Poljanec
Interested in the GC are the following:
14.
Schelling
+ 4’51
15.
Chiarello
+ 5’45
16.
Mamykin
+ 6’36
18.
Eastman
+ 7’47
20.
Schleck
+ 9’52
For reference, Morton in 10th overall stands at + 3’46, Roglic in 5th is + 2’52, so this breakaway is pretty threatening in that regard.
We also have the KoM classification, which after the first mountain sprint looks like this:
1.
Abreu
57
2.
Smith
56
3.
Schlegel
52
5.
Bizkarra
42
7.
Nesset
38
11.
Chiarello
34
15.
Calmejane
26
16.
Mamykin
24
As you can see, it’s incredibly close at the top and multiple riders from this group have a chance to take it today.
Unsurprisingly, many of the teams with riders in the Top 10 take the group pretty seriously. While they did give them some 6 minutes on the first climb, that does seem enough for them for now.
In fact, as Smith accelerates towards the first of four consecutive Cat 3 sprints, the gap has come down to around 4’40. Chiarello and Schlegel are in the vicinity, but need to speed up if they want to catch the King Power rider and prevent him from taking the provisional lead in the ranking.
They can’t, though. Chiarello picks up 2 behind Schleck, but Smith is now up to 62.
Aegon, Aker - MOT and Air France are the main teams doing work in the peloton, but Puma is chipping in as well. And it pays off. At the foot of the next climb, the gap is already down to 3’30 as the breakaway struggles to find a decent pace.
At the summit, Chiarello just barely beats Smith, Schlegel is third. It continues to be very close in the mountain classification, we’ll take a look at the provisional rankings after the next two climbs.
Smith scores another 6 points ahead of Schleck and Chiarello. At the back of the group, a few riders are having problems keeping up.
The quartet of Gillett, Ivars, Peters and Dennis can’t reconnect. They sit up and get caught by the peloton relatively quickly.
The gap between the peloton and the breakaway had been pretty steady between 3’30 and 4 minutes for a while, but it drops below 3 minutes on the Col de la Morte, the final Cat 3 climb. The group should really get going if they want to have a shot at the stage win today.
Power denies his compatriot the full 6 points at the summit, but Smith still takes 4 …
… which leaves him in a pretty commanding position in the mountain classification. There are still 20 points atop the Col du Glandon alone, but even that would not be enough for anyone to overtake him - today, at least.
But of course, they have to make it that far in the first place. The gap has been somewhat stable at around 2’30 since the last summit. Soon, the climbing begins again, and this time on a larger scale.
The Col du Glandon is a very irregular climb. On average, it’s not particularly steep, since it even has two descending stretches, but it’s long and has its steep parts, too.
eBuddy have taken the lead in the peloton now. Dombrowski sits in 7th overall, certainly not what he had in mind so far, so it’s good to see that they take action.
But the breakway has picked up the pace again as well and even manages to extend their lead a bit. This is too much for Poljanec.
Schleck and Eastman push the group up the mountain and Bizkarra, Zakarin and Abreu off the back. The Venezuelan heads into his final 50 kilometers in the polkadots, but he can be proud of what he has accomplished over the past few days.
The high peace leads to another split. Only Eastman, Schleck, Schelling, Carapaz, Chiarello and Nesset remain together at the front. Notably, Smith did not make the cut. The peloton is 3 minutes behind them again.
Calmejane and Kratochvila are the next to fall behind, but the chasing group is already 50 seconds behind the leaders anyway.
Schelling takes a big turn, at which point Nesset can’t keep up anymore either. Still 7,5 kilometers to go on the climb, but not all of it is uphill.
Despite the high pace up front, the peloton is still within 3 minutes - that’s because they’re going hard as well. Led by Vasyliv, it’s already down to less than 25 riders - not a lot of domestiques left. eBuddy, Puma and Gazelle are the only teams with more than 2 riders left, many of the major contenders like Spilak, Sicard, Meintjes and Alarcon are on their own.
Ahead, Novak, Smith, Power and Mamykin have left the other chasers behind. They’re still some 2 minutes ahead of the peloton, only a little more than a minute behind the leaders.
The five leaders are still going strong though and consistently increase their lead. Not just on those, but now also on the peloton again. Vasyliv is still at the front there, but clearly out of energy and no one wants to - or is able to - take over. As we’ve seen, there are hardly any domestiques left, so the leaders would need to take some responsibility.
The gap quickly gets up to 5 minutes again, a success for these guys looks more and more likely … and Schelling suddenly finds himself in the virtual yellow jersey.
Eastman is the first to attack towards the summit. The mountain points would be most valuable to Chiarello.
But this is also about the stage win, of course. Carapaz can’t follow, but when Schelling sets a counter attack, neither can the other three!
Schelling is the first on the downhill, where he typically fares pretty well. He already has half a minute on his chasers and there’s not a whole lot of climbing left to do today.
Chiarello scores 10 points at the summit, which helps a bit but still leaves him way short of Smith. Carapaz has recovered and joined them again.
Novak has seperated himself from the other chasers, now the lone 6th man on the road. While the stage win may be out of reach, this is of course huge for his white jersey ambitions, as the peloton is still not picking up the pace. Smith would pick up 3 more mountain points, crossing the summit 9th.
Stüssi drags himself over the top of the climb, just now catching Dyball, but the likes of Madrazo, Herklotz and Dombrowski, who follow him closely, would be well-advised to pick up some slack themselves. They’re still 5’30 behind Schelling, who, as you may remember, trailed yellow by just 4’51.
Schelling himself is caught by his chasers halfway down the descent. Those five have 2 minutes on Novak and the other 4 chasers, who are back together. No one else is left ahead of the peloton.
Prado and Geoghegan Hart ( Novak’s main rival for white, by the way) assist Vasyliv on the descent. They bring the gap down to … 4’50 at the moment. This might end up being pretty close.
Even before the final climb, Schleck feels itchy and attacks!
Schleck is many things, but a rouleur is not one of them, so the others have no issues keeping up with him on the flat. Carapaz then attacks right away as they hit the first slopes of the Lacets de Montvernier, today’s last obstacle - 3,3 kilometers at 8,1%.
Carapaz gets a small gap, but his rivals haven’t given up yet. Despite these attacks, the gap to the peloton is down to 4 minutes flat, but who knows how that is going to develop.
Schelling has looked super strong all day and he not only catches Carapaz but immediately attacks himself. He wants the stage win, and also, that gap to the peloton? It’s increasing again …
The peloton is on the climb now as well and you can’t help but want to scream “Do something already” at the leaders. But no, they continue to sit behind the few domestiques who are still with them.
Schelling has opened a pretty significant gap to his chasers. Carapaz and Schleck look pretty exhausted, but Eastman and Chiarello go out of the saddle in pursuit.
Novak isn’t done yet either, he wants that 6th place! And some more time on Geoghegan Hart would be nice as well, I assume.
Eastman and Chiarello don’t catch Schelling on the climb, but there are still 10 flat and downhill kilometers left to do it.
Imagine a screenshot here …
Stüssi and Geoghegan Hart lead the pack over the summit 4’44 after Schelling crossed that line. With potential bonus seconds … well let’s just say they better hurry up a bit.
Schelling enters the final 3,5 kilometers with 30 seconds on Eastman and Chiarello - this stage is his!
Wouldya look at that? On the short plateau after the mountain sprint, we have an attack from a contender! Meintjes answers our calls, Morton accelerates to go after him.
But only briefly, then he stops and lets Stüssi do his thing again. Meintjes goes into the descent with 20 seconds on his rivals.
Meanwhile, after one heck of a ride downhill, Novak has actually caught up to Schleck and Carapaz - pretty impressive!
Patrick Schelling wins the stage, but he doesn’t just sit up and celebrate - he wants that yellow jersey! So he sprints to the line, collects 20 bonus seconds and starts to wait …
Chiarello falls short of back-to-back stage wins, but another fantastic result will see him shoot up the GC as well. He and Eastman cross the line 30 seconds behind Schelling.
In the peloton, nothing has changed. They’re currently estimated to be 4’47 behind Schelling, so they need to make up around 20 seconds for Herklotz to keep yellow. Or will he lose it in unfortunate fashion for a second time?
Novak clearly had the most energy left in the next group, he finishes 4th, a great performance. Schleck has his most respectable result of the race in 5th, as does Carapaz in 6th.
Nesset just barely wins the sprint for 7th against Smith, who we will see again on the podium later on. Power ends up 9th, Mamykin 10th. The group finishes 2’42 behind today’s winner, but that’s not the most important time gap right now.
Meintjes made the most of the indecisiveness among the favorites and gains some valuable seconds. He finishes at + 4’01. Behind him, Herklotz leads the sprint, he has exactly 30 seconds to make it to the line!
And he does! In dramatic fashion, he saves yellow by 7 seconds! There’s a sigh of relief in the team car, I’m sure. He also adds 4 points to his total to cut the deficit to Van Stayen to 6. He and/or his team has to do better over the next two days if he wants to have any chance to wear green on the podium in Paris - but, and especially after today’s scare, the focus is still on yellow, of course.
We also have the second time limit casuality today, as all that climbing has been too much for Stannard. He can see the finish line as the time limit runs out, but only from afar.
What a wild stage. And what a wild, wild GC we’re looking at. With Schelling in the mix, for however long that might be, we now have 4 riders ( Herklotz, Madrazo and Sicard being the other 3, of course) within 24 seconds at the top of the overall classification!
Chiarello is now 6th behind Spilak, then from Roglic in 7th to Mamykin in 17th, we have 11 riders separated by a mere 2 minutes! We’re in for some fireworks on the final two days in the mountains, that much is for sure. And hopefully, we’ll get some real clashes between the elite riders, now that everyone’s surely gotten the breakaway bug out of their system. Or have they? I guess we’ll find out.
In other classification news, Isostar continues to absolutely dominate the team classification, leading Moser by almost 15 minutes after today. Novak is 4’55 ahead in the young rider standings as well - it’s going pretty well for the Slovenians.
Smith is in the lead in the mountain classification, 23 points ahead of Chiarello. Looking at their performances over the past two days, you’d think it’s between those two, but also, looking at his GC position, Chiarello should in no way be allowed in a breakaway at this point.
So is there anyone left to challenge Smith? At least there are still enough point to make some headway - 62 tomorrow, 40 the day after. And none of that Category 3 silliness either! Lots to look forward to.
Tour de France 
