For the first time in more than a week, the peloton is back on flat terrain again - well, at least for the final third of this stage. The main issue, except of course for the stage win, is the fight for the points classification. Herklotz leads Van Stayen by 2 points, but it could be argued that the Belgian is still in the driver seat.
There are two flat stages left, today and in Paris, which offer a total of 100 points (though even two second places bring that down to 60). The four remaining mountain stages, 17 through 20, give Herklotz the opportunity to score 80 points - with four stage wins, that is. But if we factor in likely at least one or two breakaway wins and the fact that he has only scored one third place in the three mountain stages in the Pyrenees, it doesn’t seem all that likely that he comes close to that number.
And then there’s one hill stage left, the one tomorrow. Herklotz has bested Van Stayen at every opportunity so far, but the finish comes after a relatively long downhill stretch and the stage also seems poised for another breakaway win. Obviously, Van Stayen is under pressure to score big today, but either way, we might be in a situation where the points jersey will be won or lost on the Champs Élysées.
There is of course also the possibility of a breakaway win, so naturally, a few riders try and get away from the pack. The first handful are Hepburn, Vangstad, Kung, Mora and Kastrantas. There are a few mountain points to be won on this stage as well, but the Greek is not in a position to get the polkadots jersey back today.
A few kilometers later, Calmejane, Vanthourenhout, Ligthart and Poljanec attack as well. Swisslion continue to make their mark on breakaways here.
In fact, here’s the third: Antonijevic followed an attack by Vliegen, but now the peloton has started to up the pace.
The sprinter teams bring Antonijevic back but then seem to be fine with the other 10 riders ahead.
It took a bit, but those 10 riders eventually come together and quickly gain 3 minutes on the peloton. No threat to Abreu’s mountain jersey, but a few good puncheurs, namely Vliegen, Calmejane and Kastrantas, as well as pretty good rouleurs all around.
There were no real attacks for the mountain points, instead it was just a sprint to the line in the final 700 meters or so. Unsurprisingly, Calmejane is the fastest. 4 and 2 points go to Vliegen and Poljanec.
Weirdly, after their brief efforts earlier, the sprinter teams actually show no interested in the stage so far - maybe they’re simply too exhausted after the past few days. The gap goes up to more than 10 minutes pretty quickly as the GC teams take calm turns at the front of the peloton.
The second mountain sprint goes to Calmejane again, this time ahead of Hepburn and Mora. The lead of the group is by now at 15 minutes, it’s pretty clear that this stage is theirs. Calmejane, by the way, is 50th in the GC at + 21’27, he could make a significant jump in the GC today, depending on how much they’ll be allowed to keep, time-wise.
16 minutes was apparently the maximum limit, now the peloton has picked up the pace. At the intermediate sprint, the gap is down to 13 minutes.
The escapees reach the Col de l’Escrinet, which isn’t very steep, but with 8,9 kilometers at a pretty steady 5,6%, it’s definetely a challenge for the weaker climbers in the group, depending on how the others approach it. Ligthart in particular could be in trouble.
Ligthart does well to hang on, but in the final few hundred meters, as the others attack for the mountain points, he loses contact. However, that should be a manageable distance to get back.
The sprint once again goes to Calmejane. He’s collected the maximum number of points today, 21, which puts him at 26 in total. Kastrantas collects 6 here to go up to 35. Their lead has remained at 13 minutes for the entire climb, putting the Isostar rider in the virtual Top 15.
Rakuten has done the most work in the peloton recently, presumably to defend Quintana’s 13th place (?), but work may be an overstatement, since as I said the gap hasn’t come down much.
Meanwhile, Ligthart makes it back to the rest of the group even before the bottom of the descent.
As the finish comes closer, some of the weaker sprinters among the breakaway have decided that it doesn’t do them any good to wait for the final sprint. Mora, Kung and Kastrantas get a gap to the rest and surely hope for some indecisiveness behind them.
Into the final 8 kilometers, the trio is still ahead, even if only by 15 seconds. Ligthart, Poljanec and above all Calmejane are the favorites for a sprint, if they catch the leaders. The peloton is now “only” around 10 minutes behind them, likely keeping the latter out of the Top 20 in the GC.
Just over 3 kilometers left and the main group just can’t seem to close the gap! Among the first three, there’s not a real favorite in case of a sprint. Mora may be the fastest, but his two companions have a higher acceleration.
Kastrantas goes for it very early, hoping to catch the others off-guard, but he has to be careful not to burn out too soon. This could be Festina’s third stage win of the race!
Kung and Mora struggle to keep up as Poljanec brings the group closer. You’d imagine one big acceleration could bridge the gap, maybe even to Kastrantas, but does anyone have that kind of energy left?
Kastrantas is back in the saddle under the flamme rouge, his upper body moving heavily. He shot his shot, but now his chasers come closer quickly. Poljanec leads the best two sprinters, Ligthart and Calmejane, and they catch up to Kung and Mora, who try to muster one final effort.
Kung actually accelerates really well and stops Poljanec from overtaking him, at least for now. There’s a small gap to Calmejane and another to Vanthourenhout.
There comes Calmejane, he’s the fastest on the road right now but Kung still looks well, too. Kastrantas is not, but if the others start to crack as well, he might still have a chance!
Calmejane jumps past Mora, who in turn keeps Poljanec and Ligthart behind him. Kastrantas hasn’t given up yet either! The other four are out of contention.
Kung runs out of energy 500 meters too early. Calmejane passes him on the left and Mora apparently has still some juice in him as well.
Poljanec is going backwards now while Ligthart has found another gear and attacks Kung and Kastrantas, who are both moving pretty slowly. The rest of the group is coming closer now as well, too late for the stage win but still fighting for the other places.
Ligthart shows his speed and comes closer to Mora. He’s also much faster than Calmejane right now, but surely that gap has to be enough for the Isostar rider?
It is! After a dominant performance all day, it’s no surprise that Lilian Calmejane wins Stage 15 of the Tour de France! Ligthart finishes second, Mora rewards himself for the courageous late attack and finishes third, the best results for all three teams so far in this race.
Vliegen finishes 4th ahead of Hepburn and Vangstad, Kung drops down to 7th after losing a lot of steam in the final meters.
Kastrantas finishes 9th behind Vanthourenhout and hits a sign, to add insult to injury, but he continues his and his team’s aggressive performance in this race so far. Poljanec simply started too early and only finishes 10th.
And oh, right, there’s still a peloton coming. They’re 7 kilometers away as the leaders pass the finish line and all of a sudden, the sprinter teams have some energy again. There are 6 points left on the table for whomever finishes 11th, Van Stayen needs to finish 14th to regain the lead in the points classification.
Becis and Dzamastagic set him up beautifully, Van Poppel latches on and then Chiarello blocks access to the train. But the other sprinters are pretty far behind them anyway, Santos in the middle and Holloway to the right are closest.
As Dzamastagic takes over, Nizzolo and Soupe have found their slipstream as well. Halvorsen brings Ahlstrand to the front and on Saber’s wheel, Samolenkov actually shows up for once - today of all days …
Van Stayen moves to the front just inside the Flamme Rouge. Ahlstrand leaves Halvorsen’s slipstream as well, still a few bike lengths behind.
This does not seem to be Van Stayen’s day in any way, shape or form as Van Poppel and Santos come side to side with him with apparent ease.
Santos can’t keep it up though and neither can Nizzolo and Soupe over the middle. Ahlstrand is fast, but Van Stayen could still hang on to score the necessary points.
Okay, hold on: Van Stayen seems to have simply conserved his energy. While all others including Ahlstrand slow down, he’s able to keep up a decent pace.
And indeed, he wins the sprint handily, alas, it’s only for 11th place. He’ll be very frustrated that his team did not do more for him today - this could have been a massive boost for the green jersey. Van Poppel and Holloway, who complete the “podium”, would have preferred that to be a podium without quotation marks as well.
Santos and Ahlstrand collect the remaining 2 and 1 points. And then? Why, time gaps, of course. At least those obviously matters much less today than they did earlier in this race.
So, Van Stayen is “properly” back in green, but he still has to be salty to leave that many points to a breakaway. For what it’s worth, it’s a feeling that main rival Herklotz’s manager knows all too well from last year, when he had the sprinter competing against the stage racer - with the better end for the sprinter, so there’s hope for Evonik yet.
Still, while a stage win today would have almost locked green for Van Stayen, he now has to hope for more breakaways that might take away points from Herklotz in the mountains. But before that, the two could butt heads again tomorrow, where we have one more hilly stage finishing in Gap. That one, too, looks taylor-made for a breakaway, though.
But let’s also give props where props are due: Calmejane really delivered today, unlocking his potential as a breakaway artist that his manager knew he had in him. In the GC, this vaulted him up to 23rd. As an additional bonus, Isostar also takes over the team classification for a second time this race, and Aegon slips into second place ahead of Gazelle.
Tour de France 
