Yesterday, we had an entirely flat stage finish with a long climb. Today could be described as the opposite: We have a Category 1 and an HC climb on our way to the finish in Cauterets, which itself is “only” a category 2 climb. So if we see major gaps, they will likely be the result of a hard-fought climb up to the Col du Tourmalet, today’s main attraction. With the long descent afterwards though, no guarantees for that.
Still, it will be interesting how the riders react to yesterday’s new developments. Will guys like Morton or Meintjes, who lost a bunch of time, try aggressively to get some of it back already? Can Herklotz use the superiority he has so far displayed on shorter climbs to get another stage win?
Or will we have a successful breakaway for the first time? With a total of 58 mountain points distributed today, this is the first opportunity for the major KoM contenders to show their cards. Kastrantas, currently leading the classification with 29 points, is a decent climber, but should be no match for the top climbers we expect to ultimately fight for the polkadots.
But the first riders to attack are anything but top climbers. Van Baarle, Groselj and Kneisky are much more comfortable on the flat roads leading up to today’s climbs.
This is more like it: Smith made an attempt yesterday already and seeks another opportunity. He follows Riesebeek, Calmejane and Lastra.
After a few more attacks keep coming, we ultimately end up with a breakaway of no less than 16 (!) riders. They are, roughly in descending order of climbing abilities:
Smith
Teklehaimanot
Schlegel
Bizkarra
Lastra
Abreu
Calmejane
Chernetskiy
Feng
Riesebeek
Martins Sandoval
Van Baarle
Asgreen
Kneisky
Yzeiraj
Groselj
The top row are all really solid climbers, firmly the Tier 1 of this group. Especially King Power is in a great position with the two best climbers. The bottom row, however, is likely to drop pretty early as soon as the going gets tough. The biggest question, though, is just how much leeway the peloton will afford then. Lots of teams have riders up front, but not those of the top contenders.
As for GC implications, Chernetskiy is the best-placed rider, 27th overall at + 8’07. Among the top climbers, Teklehaimanot at + 12’40 is the best - not the biggest threats.
Coming closer to the first mountain sprint, Lastra accelerates first. He has the most mountain points of anyone in the group with 11, compared to 8 from Martins Sandoval and 5 from Abreu.
Martins Sandoval can’t quite keep up and has to leave a small gap. None of the top climbers were in a position to really compete.
Chernetskiy overtakes Lastra to take 6 points, 4 go the the Spaniard, 2 to Schlegel.
A few of the expected riders are already in trouble. Groselj is furthest behind, Kneisky and Yzeiraj claw their way back ahead of him. All three would return to the group quickly.
As for the question of how serious the peloton takes the breakaway, the answer is: pretty serious. They keep the gap steady at around 5 minutes. Aegon and Air France are among the main forces as is, interestingly, Festina, maybe out of an obligation to Kastrantas’ polkadots jersey.
Schlegel sprints towards the second mountain sprint from the front of the group, Lastra two positions behind him this time. Smith, Teklehaimanot and Bizkarra continuously ride at the back of the group, apparently not interested in these sprints. Obviously, the big points are still ahead, but collecting some of the smaller prices surely wouldn’t hurt?
Schlegel went just a little bit early and has to cede the points to Riesebeek, Lastra and Martins Sandoval. Lastra is now in a position to take the lead in the KoM classification with a first or second place over the Col d’Aspin.
But for that to happen, the group has to make it that far in the first place. With still 25 kilometers to the top of the Col d’Aspin, the peloton comes within 3 minutes of them for the first time.
The two climbs have also claimed their first victim in the peloton. Vermote has fallen behind, and all alone, this is going to be a really tough rest of the stage for him.
The Col d’Aspin itself, while certainly demanding, is not the steepest ascent at an average of 6,6%. It’s also generally pretty steady, no unusually hard parts.
But for the weaker climbers, it’s obviously still a lot to deal with. Teklehaimanot has taken over the reigns at sets a solid pace, which soon is enough to distance Groselj.
The peloton is surprisingly aggressive in its pursuit. Kangert is at the front and the breakaway is already within one and a half minutes.
Eventhough there are still around 100 riders in the pack, more and more start losing touch. Dekker, one of the most accomplished Tour de France riders of all time, is among them.
Either because the peloton relents a bit or because Lastra puts some more pressure on his colleagues at the front, the gap starts to open up again in the final 3 kilometers of the climb. That’s too much for Yzeiraj though. He’s soon caught by the pack.
Catching Lastra a bit off-guard, Abreu flies past him as he accelerates towards the summit. Schlegel and Calmejane follow closely and Smith is near the front for the first time now as well. Still 2 kilometers to the top, though.
More riders fall off the back of the group now, namely Kneisky, Asgreen and Martins Sandoval. They will hope to keep the distance manageable to be able to make it back in the descent.
Bizkarra has taken over at the front, about a kilometer from the summit.
Van Baarle slows down behind him and blocks Abreu and Schlegel.
A quintet of Riesebeek, Calmejane, Feng, Chernetskiy and Teklehaimanot falls behind now as well. The latter comes as a surprise, surely he has just been caught up behind the others?
Bizkarra just barely holds on to take 16 points, 10 go to Abreu, 8 to Schlegel, 6 to Smith and 4 to Lastra.
Kastrantas still leads the mountain standings, but there are 20 more points available atop the Tourmalet.
At the foot of the Col du Tourmalet, nine riders have reunited in the first group:
Lastra
Bizkarra
Smith
Calmejane
Abreu
Schlegel
Teklehaimanot
Van Baarle
Feng
Riesebeek, Chernetskiy and Martins Sandoval remain between them and the peloton, but they’ll have a tough time to return on the climb. The peloton, still 91 riders large, has taken things a bit more slowly and the gap between the and the first group is back to just over 3 minutes.
The Tourmalet is both longer and steeper than the Aspin, earning its HC status. It will certainly separate the wheat from the chaff in the breakaway, while any GC implications depend very much how the peloton approaches this.
The peloton has everything under control and keeps the breakaway within 2 minutes, but leaves them out there for now. Van Baarle and Feng are predictably the first two riders to drop.
Lastra really, really wants that polkadots jersey, but attacking from more than 2 kilometers out, as he does now, has not proven to be a very effective strategy so far.
But could it work? Teklehaimanot implodes and traps most of the other riders behind him, but Bizkarra manages to get around. Calmejane had to give up for now.
Bizkarra takes the lead inside the final kilometer of the climb. Teklehaimanot “leads” the chase, but he doesn’t have much left in the tank, it seems.
In contrast to Bizkarra, who easily outpaces Lastra. However, the latter can still look forward to the provisional mountain standings that we will have a look at shortly.
Abreu and Smith attack to cross the line 3rd and 4th, leaving Schlegel and Teklehaimanot behind.
The peloton crosses the summit with 62 riders still together, indicating their relaxed pace. That also becomes apparent when looking at the gap to Bizkarra, which has grown to more than 4 minutes! A first breakaway win looks very possible!
As promised, here’s the provisional mountain classfication, and indeed, Lastra leads it! However, there are still a few points available at the finish. Bizkarra can still take over, as long as he finishes in the Top 4 and at the same time at least 2 places ahead of the Grieg rider.
Despite being better rouleurs and, at least to some extent, better descenders than Bizkarra, the trio of Lastra, Smith and Abreu are having trouble catching up to the leader. The trio is around 1’20 ahead of Schlegel, Calmejane and Teklehaimanot, who in turn are 3’40 ahead of the peloton, meaning Bizkarra has more than 5 minutes total advantage. Looking really good for him and his three chasers.
The catch is finally made right at the foot of the final ascent, just inside 10 kilometers to go.
As you can see, said final climb is not very steep. Smith and Bizkarra are the best climbers on paper, but if sprint and acceleration come into play, Lastra might have the best shot. But it could simply come down to who has the most energy left after a really tough stage.
Their chasers are by now 1’40 behind them, so it seems very unlikely that any of them will have a shot at the stage win. But they’re also more than 4 minutes ahead of the peloton.
For a while, the four leaders share the workload equally, but at a rather low pace. Then Smith has enough and attacks! No one reacts with a counter attack at first.
He looks strong and quickly establishes a lead of 25 seconds. Abreu leads the pursuit.
Teklehaimanot takes a cue from his team mate and blows up the second group. Schlegel drops first, Calmejane can’t follow either.
Smith enters the final 3 kilometers with now 40 seconds on the trio behind him. His attack may have been the decisive move!
Still zero movement in the peloton. Generali and Gazelle lead, Puma is content to let them.
As Smith enters the last kilometer, remember that there’s still the issue of the polkadots jersey. Bizkarra can only take it if he finishes 2nd and Lastra 4th …
… which is exactly the order they start the sprint in. But remember, Lastra is the strongest sprinter among the three, at least on paper.
But first, credit where credit is due: Congratulations to the winner of Stage 11, Dion Smith!
Behind him, Abreu can’t keep up, in that way deciding the KoM competition for today. But obviously, there’s still the question of who finishes 2nd and who 3rd.
Lastra does it. Great stage for him and his team! But also kudos to Bizkarra and Abreu for a very impressive performance, too.
Teklehaimanot finishes 5th, rounding out a great day for King Power.
Isostar gets 2 riders into the Top 6 as well. Considering his puncheur skillset, Calmejane does really well on this mountain stage.
Everyone else is content to just let the stage peter out. Boily and Barta lead the peloton into the final kilometer.
Schlegel manages to hold them off and finishes 7th. Considering the riders who fought for the stage win, this is maybe a bit of an underperformance, but he still collects a few points for his team.
Not surprisingly, Herklotz leads the peloton over the line ahead of Zardini and Madrazo. Maybe this is a stage win missed, but without a breakaway in front, the race would have likely looked a whole lot differently for the favorites, so that’s not a forgone conclusions.
After a further look at the stage results, King Power’s joy might be curbed a bit: Not sure how this happened, but Gidich got caught way behind and ended up finishing more than 10 minutes behind the peloton. This, of course, means that he loses the white jersey, which now goes to Godoy. The Brazilian was expected to take over sooner rather than later anyway, but considering how this stage played out, it’s a bit surprising that it happened today already and Gidich drops pretty far down the rankings, too.
We also have a change at the top of the team classification: After the efforts of Bizkarra and Calmejane, Isostar are the new leaders. Abreu and Calmejane also enter the Top 20 of the GC at 14 and 17, respectively.
As a last note, all riders made the time limit today, even Vermote, who fell behind so early. In fact, he didn’t even finish last. That was Vlatos, who now holds the amusing distinction to have led the same race in which he now holds the Lanterne Rouge.
All in all, the stage probably played out largely as expected. No movement among the GC contenders and a peloton content to let the escapees win this. Expect much more action tomorrow when we head to the Plateau de Beille, though!
Tour de France 
