We have a very interesting stage on the menu today that takes the peloton from the small town of Abbeville to the Norman port city of Le Havre. It’s interesting for a number of reasons: For one, not particularly typical for a flat stage, there’s a constant up and down with some steep climbs that could wear out some of the less capable puncheurs / climbers in the peloton. It also has 5 KoM sprints with a total of 25 points available, quite a lot when you consider that current leader Kastrantas has 10.
Also, despite nominally being a flat stage, the hilly profile extends to the finish, which has a very steep ascent to the line, as you can see here:
And then, apart from the route itself, we have a number of interesting constellations in the different classifications. We mentioned the Mountain Classification already, but more importantly, after yesterday’s weird finish, Herklotz’s yellow jersey is in acute danger from Van Stayen, who could take it from him with any amount of bonus seconds, and the finish seems taylor-made for the Belgian.
Van Stayen also has a shot at the points jersey, should he win the stage or in case the finish is too tough for Ahlstrand and Saber to score any points. Lastly, if the finish ultimately favors pure puncheurs, Gidich has a shot at taking the white jersey from Cavagna, who he trails by only 3 seconds.
But let’s leave the hypotheticals behind and focus on the actual racing. Into the first small ascent, a trio goes on the attack. It’s Abreu and the tireless Bolor-Erdene and Pedersen.
Kastrantas follows Vanthourenhout to defend his polkadots jersey.
A few more short-lived breakaway attempts later, things settle down and the quintet is established as the break of the day. Abreu is the only one who holds a candle to Kastrantas in terms of puncheur abilities.
This is quickly put to the test at the first KoM sprint. Pedersen leads the two puncheurs into the final kilometers.
The Dane holds out for a long time and finishes second, but Kastrantas beats him at the line to tighten his grip on his jersey. None of his other companions had any points in the classification before today. The peloton is already 5 minutes behind the group.
The same order holds over the second KoM sprint, this time with a more dominant move by Kastrantas. Towards the end of the ascent, Bolor-Erdene loses touch for a moment, but he quickly rejoins the group shortly after.
Abreu choses to be more aggressive at the third sprint and attacks from the front.
But that doesn’t work at all. The final few meters to the line are almost completely flat and Pedersen and Vanthourenhout prove their superior speed. Kastrantas gets 1 point and now has 21 to Pedersen’s 11, with two mountain sprints remaining.
In the peloton, the sprinter teams proceed as usual and lead the way. The gap to the breakaway stands at 3 minutes.
Abreu “wins” the intermediate sprint, not that it matters all that much. The gap, with a little over 50 kilometers to go, is down to 2 minutes already.
Kastrantas’ second place at the second-to-last mountain sprint means that despite winning said sprint, the polkadots is now out of reach for Pedersen. The gap between the two of them stands at 8 points, but with only 2 mountain sprints combined over the next three days, the Greek can potentially even secure the jersey until the Pyrenees, depending on the outcome of the last climb.
Before the final KoM sprint even comes into reach, Vanthourenhout assesses the situation and comes to the conclusion that he’s better off alone.
But, mostly due to efforts by Bolor-Erdene, he is quickly brought back. There’s an immediate counter attack by Kastrantas, and now Abreu takes up the chase. 2 kilometers to go to the sprint, this is an aggressive maneuver by the Festina rider.
Abreu catches and overtakes him, but Kastrantas manages to hold on and the two create seperation to the rest of the group.
Kastrantas shows his superiority once again and takes 5 points. With only 1 going to Pedersen, the jersey is now likely secured until Stage 11 at minimum, since the mountain top finish on Stage 10 grants 20 points compared to his 29 (and Herklotz only has 6, although he can still add a handful more on the hilltop finish in two days).
The efforts of the breakaway have stabilized their gap at around 2 minutes with only 26 kilometers left in the race, that’s quite a lot judging from previous efforts of the peloton to catch escapees. Trusting - or encouraging - his teammates, Ahlstrand keeps himself very close to the front, obviously with every intention to compete despite the steep finish.
Up front, Bolor-Erdene and Vanthourenhout lost contact with their companions on the previous climb. They would not make it back to them.
Due to some camera malfunctions, we have to jump ahead a bit in our coverage. The breakaway is swallowed with 3,5 kilometers to go and the sprinters are already very close to the front. Becis leads Van Stayen and Enger on the left, Ahlstrand and Van der Lijke follow the unusual but maybe well-suited leadouts of Carapaz and Godoy.
The steep road comes into view and we also see some of the more traditional leadouts. Holloway has positioned himself ahead of Van der Lijke while Van Stayen follows Dzamastagic.
Van der Lijke comes out of Holloway’s wheel as we near the final flat part towards the finish line. Saber and Van Poppel move to the front in the middle, while Van Stayen has yet to make a decisive move.
Van der Lijke takes the lead, could this finally be his moment? Saber and Van Stayen are also in contention, but now we see Herklotz coming from behind on the right! Remember, he only leads Van Stayen by a single second, so this is an actually battle for yellow!
The impact of the steep ascent is palpable now as Herklotz blows past everyone to take the lead! Madrazo is in the picture now as well!
The defending champion draws level with the top sprinters but still a good bit behind Herklotz. No one has a great speed advantage at the moment. The final meters should favor the sprinters, but do they have any energy left at all?
Not enough! In a stunning display of strength, Herklotz defends his yellow jersey in style and takes his second stage win. And since this is considered a flat stage, he takes a massive haul of points as well, vaulting him up the ranks in the points competition.
Madrazo finishes second, good job to have the presence of mind to be in the mix at all. He limits his time loss to Herklotz and gains 12 seconds on his other rivals. Van Stayen finishes third, a result he would have thought would give him the yellow jersey under normal circumstances - but alas, racing against Herklotz are anything but normal circumstances. Van der Lijke finishes on the thankless 4th place.
In a tight race for 5th place, Enger and Saber beat Ahlstrand, making the tiniest bit of headway in the points classification.
Then come Van Poppel and Nizzolo before Spilak completes the Top 10. Looking at what his rivals did, he may even be a bit disappointed at that.
In the weird mix of sprinters and GC riders, Dombrowski finishes 11th ahead of Vanderbiest, Jakobsen, Santos and Barguil.
In a stage that was hard to predict, two climbers eventually triumph over the punchy and regular sprinters. Herklotz’s win makes it so that Van Stayen can only take yellow with a win tomorrow, and then the two compete on equal footing again in the hilltop finish the day after. Although, does anyone really compete on equal footing with the German in any uphill battle at this point?
For the first time this race, no jersey changes hands as Kastrantas now holds the polkadots (almost) certainly for the next four days. Ahlstrand only has 5 points on Saber and 28 on Van Stayen though, so depending on tomorrow’s sprint outcome, we might see a change there.
So, that’s what at stake tomorrow: The sprinter’s jersey and potentially yellow for Van Stayen, although his sprint results so far don’t inspire the most confidence. But he has the potential to do it, no doubt, so we’ll just have to wait and see. It will be an exciting finish, that’s for sure.
Tour de France 
