Finishing at the iconic Mur de Huy, Stage 3 of this year’s Tour de France is the first opportunity for puncheurs to shine. It’s going to be tough for Vlatos to hang on to yellow, though not impossible. The way to the Mur is not too difficult, so we could see a very large group sprinting to the line and if everyone sticks very closely together, there may not any time gaps appear at all. But again, not the likeliest scenario.
But thinking about a change in leadership, who would be a candidate to take over? Here’s an overview of the best puncheurs and their GC gaps.
Dennis
+ 4
Herklotz
+ 24
Sicard
+ 26
Gidich
+ 39
Spilak
+ 41
Meintjes
+ 1'09
Chaves
+ 1'16
Boily
+ 1'20
Chernetskiy
+ 1'32
Calmejane
+ 1’34
Van der Lijke
+ 1'43
Van Stayen
+ 2'05
Two of the top favorites, the punchy sprinters Van der Lijke and Van Stayen, are way too far behind to have any ambitions - but it should be noted that the latter can take green with a Top 3 result if Ahlstrand is outside of the Top 15. Other puncheurs like Chaves, Boily, Chernetskiy and Calmejane will also be on the hunt for nothing more than stage glory.
Among the GC contenders who also double as elite puncheurs, Herklotz and Sicard are the obvious candidates, as they have a decent gap over Spilak and Meintjes. In the end, the most likely option might be Dennis, who is by no means a great puncheur, but could be good enough to finish with the main group - if a main group does make it to the finish in one piece.
Gidich on the other hand represents an interesting secondary battle: that for white. Geoghegan Hart is solid on this type of terrain, but both Gidich and Cavagna pose credible threats, being 16 and 13 seconds behind, respectively.
Finally, the first mountain points of the race will be distributed, 6 atop the Côte de Bohissau and at the finish, and 5 at the Côte d’Ereffe and the Côte de Cherave. The initial breakaway should be hotly contested - with only 15 more mountain points total available over the next two days, taking the polkadots jersey today may mean having it for three days.
Pedersen opens the proceedings, Lastra follows suit.
Revard is up next, then Grossschartner who had lost a lot of time yesterday, and with a small gap Peters.
But that’s still not the end of it. Asgreen and Kastrantas try to get to the front as well. As expected, today’s breakaway is more enticing that yesterday’s.
Seven men seems to be too much for the peloton, Zakarin and Fernandes bring the Greek champion back quickly. The others still hold out.
The pace slows down a bit in the peloton and Poljanec, Dlamini, Gillett and Karatzios try to take advantage - Grieg is really active in these early minutes of the stage. But Zakarin immediately accelerates again to quell their hopes. They get caught, and so does Asgreen, who had previously held a small gap.
The front five have united and for a bit, it seemed like that was it, but Swisslion and Festina haven’t given up yet. This time, it’s Antonijevic and again Karatzios.
Alas, the peloton is set to leave at most five riders in front, so those attacks get neutralized as well. The quintet then establishes a lead of more than 2 minutes, which finally cools down the situation in the pack.
Grossschartner, Lastra and Peters are all solid puncheurs who are the likely favorites for the mountain sprints, but Pedersen is the quickest, so if they don’t push him to the limit, his speed may be decisive. Revard has to rely on his smarts, I guess, since he’s neither very quick nor very punchy. But we’ll see.
Pedersen proves his speed and takes the intermediate sprint with ease, 10 points for him. 6 go to Lastra, 4 to Peters, 2 to Revard and 1 to Grossschartner.
With all the points taken, no need for any sprint preps in the peloton. Evonik, Azteca and Generali do most of the work, with occasional input from Tinkoff, signaling the ambitions of Van Stayen, Chaves, Spilak and Chernetskiy. The gap has been hovering around 3 minutes for quite some time now.
Barely a few hundred meters into the climb of the Côte de Bohissau, Peters attacks! This is the steepest section and the ascent flattens considerably towards the hilltop, so what might look premature could be a smart move.
Or it might just be, you know, premature. With the sprint right around the corner, Revard takes the lead and Peters tries to latch onto his wheel to regain some energy.
Coming out of the final bend, Grossschartner looks strong, he draws level with Revard! Teammate Lastra is also doing well, everyone else seems to be exhausted.
Grossschartner overextended himself, but Lastra had some punch left and moved past everyone with ease to take 6 points. Revard salvages 4, Grossschartner ends up with only 2.
Meanwhile, the punctures continue, this time it’s Van Zandbeek who is hit right before the climb, terrible timing.
Over the top of the hill, we see yellow jersey Vlatos in the very last positions of the peloton. Not a great sign for things to come.
But at least he manages to stay with the pack, in contrast to this sextett, which includes no less than four Swisslion riders including yesterday’s attacker Groselj, as well as Ligthart and Nizzolo. They’re quickly distanced by more than three minutes, Van Zandbeek is still even further behind.
They don’t manage to close that gap over the next few dozen kilometers, mostly because the aforementioned teams continue to do work. Azteca and Generali especially have increased their efforts and Spilak rides around 10th position this early - could he plan a big move today? The breakaway is already visible further down the road, with little over half a minute left of their gap.
The high pace even leads to the occasional split. In addition to Spilak, the other GC riders who are very attentive and close to the front include Herklotz, Madrazo, Sicard, Morton and Meintjes, whereas among others Dombrowski, seen here in the foreground, might do well to keep himself a bit closer to the front.
Here’s a brief look at the final 20 kilometers. If the escapees want to make sure one of them gets to wear the polkadots, they better hurry up to make it at the very least to the next KoM sprint, the Côte d’Ereffe.
To that end, Revard attacks inside the final kilometer of the climb. Lastra sits at the very end of the group, looking very calm.
Interestingly, it looks like he’s content to let his teammate take the points. Grossschartner goes into the lead, decisively, it seems.
Or maybe Lastra simply didn’t have anything left in the tank. The peloton catches up to him, Pedersen and Peters as they cross the line. The Isostar rider manages to snatch that last KoM point, 3 go to Revard and 5 to Grossschartner, the only two men left out front, both now tied at 7 points for the lead.
Well, you can scratch the “left out front” part. With 13 kilometers to go, the breakaway is done.
And wow, this is unexpected! Rather than waiting at least until the next ascent, Van Stayen actually attacks into the descent and tries to get away very early! There are still lots of domestiques left, though, so he has to feel really well.
Not entirely sure how he tought this was going to go, but around 4 kilometers later, Dyball brings him back. Let’s hope this move didn’t cost Van Stayen too much, but it didn’t look like he was going all out, at least.
The peloton is still largely intact, but Vlatos lost touch for the first time. Curiously, Festina actually sends the whole squad back to aid him, including Van Niekerk, who would be a decent candidate for a nice stage result on this type of terrain. Not sure what team management is thinking there.
Foliforov leads the peloton into the Côte de Cherave and for the first time, we see an increased presence of Puma at the front of the peloton with Ganna and Cavagna on the near and Herklotz on the far side of the road. Remember that both of the former are in contention for white, and Geoghegan Hart is positioned rather poorly at the moment, right in the middle of the pack.
Van Stayen is also in the mix, but he’s isolated now. Spilak follows him closely, flanked by Calmejane to his left and Meintjes and Chernetskiy to his right. Many of the main GC contenders are in the next two or three rows.
Dyball paces up the climb like a mad man and crosses the line first, ahead of Foliforov and Van Stayen, who now has a chance to take the (tied) lead in the KoM rankings with a stage win, too. Chaves has moved close to the front as well. The group is still very large, so we might actually see a massive bunch sprint up the Mur de Huy.
Onto the final flat, there’s actually a pretty significant gap after the first 39 riders! In the second group are guys like Godoy, Carapaz or Brenes, but the biggest names are Galta and Schleck!
Dennis is also in there, which means that the riders in the first group that are highest in the GC are currently Eastman, then Ganna, then Herklotz. Geoghegan Hart has also missed the cut. But we will have to wait and see if those time gaps hold until the finish line.
You can see here just how absurdly steep the final kilometer gets. Chernetskiy, Herklotz and Van Stayen take it head-on and accelerate from the front line.
Van Stayen quickly has almost a bike length on everyone. The rest is just ridiculously close together. From left to right, the first line is Chernetskiy, Cavagna, Herklotz, Kangert, Sicard, Chaves, Alarcon and Spilak.
To the right, you also have Olivier and Meintjes ahead of Gidich and Barguil. Right in the middle, last year’s podium of Madrazo, Morton and Dombrowski are bunched together. Quintana and Ganna are to their left.
Van Stayen continues to lead, no one else has made significant headway. But if he runs out of energy, the final meters provide enough room for others to take it with a final dash. Remember, Top 3 means Green Jersey, as Ahlstrand has obviously been distanced a while ago.
What’s this? Eastman falls behind at the back of the group! Is this the end of his yellow dreams? Van der Lijke is with him, he doesn’t play any role in the finale after all.
Oh no, has he gone too early? Van Stayen suffers mightily and is overtaken on all sides by Herklotz, Chaves and Spilak! Sicard is also looking well, Chernetskiy is fading on the far left side of the road.
Spilak has a slight edge on Herklotz, it looks to be between the two of them! Madrazo and Olivier are still doing well, fighting for a podium spot.
The line is coming closer, there’s still no decisive lead for either of the two!
Herklotz takes it! It’s incredibly tight, but the photo at the line clearly shows the German ahead by a few centimeters! This is exactly the type of finish he excells at and he completes his Grand Tour stage win portfolio at the earliest possible moment. To say nothing of the yellow jersey that he will now wear at the podium ceremony later on as well!
Spilak takes a strong second place, and in a similarly close finish, Madrazo just barely beats Olivier to take third and valuable bonus seconds. An important sign of life after the poor time trial two days ago.
Sicard finishes fifth ahead of Chaves, who might be a bit disappointed with that result, and Meintjes.
A frustrated Van Stayen ends up 8th ahead of Calmejane and Zardini, who complete the Top 10. The big question, as we look back, is where the jury will award time gaps. Riders are scattered all over the place and the jury is notoriously arbitrary when it comes to time gaps.
Could it be behind Quintana and ahead of Alarcon? Or behind Cavagna and Berhane, who struggle at the end of the group? A big question not least for the French, because both his teammate Ganna as well as Geoghegan Hart are in the big group of previously distanced riders around Galta and Schleck, charging up the hill right now. Gidich on the other hand is right there with him.
But first, let’s finish the formalities: Dombrowski and Morton finish 11th and 12th, no need to worry about time gaps for them. Fellow GC contenders Schelling, Roglic and Barguil finish 14th to 16th, bookended by Russians Chernetskiy in 13th and Zakarin in 17th place.
Kangert is 18th, then Quintana follows with a small gap. Moment of truth … and yes, there’s a gap. The Colombian is timed 22 seconds behind today’s winner.
The jury is then very exact in giving Alarcon another small gap at + 29 in 20th place, Goos in 21st gets + 33 and Dyball leads a small group over the line at + 38. That group includes U25 contender Gidich …
… but crucially also Cavagna and Berhane. A loss for the latter, a big win for the former, as they are given more than a minute on the Ganna group, which also includes Eastman, Galta and Chiarello, and almost 2 minutes on the group around Geoghegan Hart, who loses white after just two days to, you guessed it, Cavagna. What a day for Puma!
The big loser, GC wise, is Schleck, who finishes just over 3 minutes behind Herklotz. Now in 95th overall, he might turn into one of the more dangerous KoM contenders, should EA decide to back Godoy in the GC. The Brazilian finished 27th today.
Because of Van Stayen’s collapse, Ahlstrand gets to keep green for another day, at the very least. With four consecutive sprint stages, he has the chance to lay the ground work to keep it for good.
Not keeping it: Vlatos, it being the yellow jersey. He fought valiantly, but a finish in 174th place will surely spark discussions in the team bus tonight about the decision to call back the team to help him.
Oh, and the polkadot jersey? That went indeed to the man I had the least confidence in: Revard. This is where the puncture from yesterday is really painful for Grossschartner, as the two finished in the same group today, the Austrian some 12 places ahead of the American, but obviously, the time loss yesterday has Grossschartner way behind in the GC.
Speaking of the GC: As I mentioned, Herklotz slips into yellow very early. Sicard and Spilak move onto the podium, Madrazo is up to fifth behind teammate Kangert, distanced by a bit more than half a minute already.
Among Top 10 contenders, Galta has taken the biggest hit over the first three days. He’s already almost three minutes behind Herklotz, but more crucially almost two behind the likes of Meintjes, Schelling and Quintana. But considering his attacking nature, he might just as well take this as an advantage, possibly granting him a bit more leeway later on.
As for the white jersey, Godoy actually lost the least time to Cavagna and Gidich at + 50. Among the other possible contenders, Novak lost 1’10, Geoghegan Hart, Mas and Powless 1’44, Power 2’27 and the likes of Roman, Barta and Schlegel as much as 3’14.
After his unfortunate puncture, Van Zandbeek snatches the Lanterne Rouge from Ji, although it’s still close. And then, cycleYorkshire loses the lead in the team classification to Generali thanks to good performances from Spilak, Dyball and Dennis.
Tomorrow will be another day for the sprinters (or the first breakaway win?) as we cross the border to France. See you then!
Tour de France 
