The final spring monument is here! We’re starting in Liège and finishing there with a brief visit to Bastogne.
Under grey rain clouds, 192 riders are ready for the upcoming 250 kilometers.
Indosat seem to want to avoid any work in the peloton and send Arifin as the first attacker up the road. Pantano Gomez reps wild card team GCN and goes after him.
De Gendt is up next, followed a bit later by Conti and Ji. ISA - Hexacta found breakaway success with Juarez at the Amstel Gold Race and try again here.
We’re not done yet: Siriwardena and Van Baarle get some seperation and Christensen accelerates on the other side of the road as well, but Polnicky thinks there are enough riders ahead and tries to bring them back quickly.
Marzuki and Per support him in that endeavor and indeed, the aforementioned riders had no chance to get away. We’re left with the earlier five attackers in front as the peloton slows down notably.
Around 10 kilometers into the race, the quintet now has a gap of 3 minutes and the riders have settled into a rhythm. With Pantano Gomez and Ji, two strong climbers have made the group, but hills aren’t necessarily their comfort zone. That said, Arifin, Conti and De Gendt aren’t fantastic puncheurs either. The latter has strong backup stats at least, but is also by far the worse pure climber. All in all, not the most threatening group, but maybe they can surprise everyone.
The usual suspects are taking turns at the front of the peloton: van der Hoorn for De Bie, Nielsen for Lutsenko, Marzuki for Skujins, Per for Mohoric, Polnicky for Sagan, Salinas for Hagen and Salcone for Kinoshita.
The breakaway has escaped the rain for the moment as it continues to make its way through the Belgian countryside. Their advantage had peaked at around seven minutes and is at a steady six minutes now.
This turn in the city of Bastogne marks the furthest point, geographically, the riders will be away from Liège today. It’s not the halfway point of the race though, since the way back is not only more entwined, but also obviously hillier.
We can skip to said hillier terrain in good conscience, not much happened until then other than the gap of these guys dropping under four minutes. Arifin leads them up the first serious incline that forces Conti out of the saddle for the first time since his original attack.
Vanthourenhout and Polnicky lead the peloton over that crest. Their pace has been pretty high over the last few kilometers, shaving another minute off the breakaway’s lead on that hill alone, but no one was forced off the back yet.
Pantano Gomez pushes the pace up ahead as the group tries to keep the peloton at bay for as long as possible. And indeed their lead does grow a little bit again.
On the third climb of this final third of the race, teammates Fenn and Rowe are the first to drop behind the peloton. I’m sure there were some confused looks when they were told they would participate here, and you couldn’t blame them for that - really not their terrain, this is.
Polnicky continues his tireless work at the front of the peloton, now alongside three King Power riders. Lutsenko seems to feel really well once again. The gap to the breakaway still hovers around three minutes.
Coming closer to Liège, the rain is back, but Conti suffers an even bigger inconvinience as he punctures and falls behind his breakaway companions.
As expected at this stage, we also have the first splits. Despite Isostar’s presence at the front of this second group, Mohoric is safely ahead of the gap. Tinkoff works to get Vogt and Chernetskiy back. Also in this group are Beltran, Jensen, Vakoc and Formolo.
Heading into the final 35 kilometers, the Tinkoff duo as well as Jensen and Formolo have made it back, but they’re at the tailend of the peloton, alongside Gastauer, Schreurs and Kwiatkowski. All of them would be well-advised to get to the front quickly, but at least they’re still in the peloton, in contrast to Beltran and Vakoc, who are by now more than a minute behind.
Beltran leads that group, since he doesn’t even have any teammates there. This is also the furthest ahead that any rider from Puma ( Madouas and Niu), Grieg-Maersk ( Serrano) and Bennelong ( McCormick, Hamilton and David) are.
ISA (with Sepulveda and Zakarin in support of Vakoc) and Generali ( Talansky, Rosskopf and Gaday) are only exempt from that list because they have a man in the breakaway. Not the greatest look, with still 67 riders in the peloton.
On the following ascent, Beltran and Talansky actually lead them back to the pack, but at that exact moment …
… we have the first major attack! None other than Ponzi accelerates. McCarthy and De Bie are immediately in his slipstream.
Quita tries to control the situation for the peloton, not the most potent domestique, which may be why Koretzky and Gastauer try their luck as well.
The attacking trio flies past Conti, who tries to somehow hold on but has no chance to do so.
In the peloton, Le Roux has taken over to bring Koretzky and Gastauer back, not the most impressive attack to be honest. Ponzi, McCarthy and De Bie on the other hand already have almost 30 seconds on the peloton, which has grown back to over 150 riders but is certainly poised to split up again any moment now.
Indeed it does, just as Conti is caught by Cuming and Smit. Again, the likes of Beltran, Talansky, Vakoc, Formolo and Chernetskiy have fallen behind, whereas Jensen and Vogt just barely hang on.
The remaining four escapees, by the way, are still doing well. 1’30 on the chasing trio, another half a minute on the peloton, with 27 kilometers to go.
Giro winner Taaramäe is not above doing some domestique work here, supporting Quita and Gidich in the chase. The gap to Ponzi, McCarthy and De Bie has oscillated between 30 and 40 seconds for the last few kilometers. The pack stands at 25 riders now, group Beltran still hasn’t made it back yet.
A few riders fall behind and find themselves between the two groups: Conti, Smit and Le Roux, all having done their fair share of work today. eBuddy still has both Gerts and Boswell in the main group, but you see them sitting in the latter third here, once more alongside Gastauer, Jensen, Vogt and now surprisingly Bakelants and Kinoshita. Let’s hope they’re just here to get a bottle of water, since neither of them have any helpers left.
All of the teams without a rider in this main group have at least one or two in the main chasing group - in case of Gazelle even the entire team as they continue to try and bring Formolo back.
If anyone needed more proof of what a beast Taaramäe is, he almost singlehandedly brings the trio around De Bie back, Gidich does the final short bit. Around 10 kilometers after their initial attack, the top favorites are back to square one. The lead of the breakaway has dropped to below a minute in all this, but we might see the peloton slow down a little now that the biggest threat is neutralized.
It doesn’t for the moment, and so we see the first attacks from the breakaway. Ji knows he’s currently his team’s best chance at a decent haul of points, so he tries his best to stay ahead. Arifin and Pantano Gomez, both of whom still have their leaders in the main group, follow, De Gendt can’t.
The primary chasing group has broken into further pieces, only these 32 riders are still hanging on to the high pace that Gazelle continues to set. Grieg-Maersk and Puma are the only two teams without a rider in either of these groups or the breakaway.
This certainly doesn’t help the chasers: Hagen goes on the attack! McCarthy, Lopez, De Bie and Polanc are closest, a few top favorites are a bit poorly positioned towards the middle of the group.
Hagen stretches the group thin, but no decisive split yet. McCarthy, De Bie and Lopez are still following most closely, Sagan and Lutsenko now in good position as well, while Ponzi leads the main body of the group.
On the tailend of the peloton, Schreurs and Kwiatkowski are the next big names to be in real trouble. If they survive the upcoming hill, they might be able to make it back on the longer descent into the finale. Gastauer and Vogt try their best to hang on ahead of them, as do Polanc and Mohoric, who’s not looking great here.
Hagen’s move didn’t stick after all, but it did bring the three remaining breakaway riders back into the fold. Under Lopez’s lead, things have calmed down a little and the trio will try to settle in and stay with this group for as long as possible. 23 riders are in here now, and except for Schreurs and Kwiatkowski, it seems very unlikely that anyone further behind could still interfere.
Especially as we now have the next big attack! Lutsenko wants to put a second Ardennes classic to his name and goes for it! Hagen, Sagan and De Bie, who’s been very attentive today, follow suit, then Skujins.
Vogt is in real trouble now. De Gendt falls behind next to him, the Belgian’s former breakaway companions struggle as well. Schreurs and Kwiatkowski have made up a lot of ground and are back at the end of the peloton a few meters ahead, and Mohoric seems to have found his footing again as well, but Polanc seems to be done. Boswell, Gerts, Koretzky (all on the left side of the road) and Jensen (in the middle) also don’t seem to be able to follow the acceleration ahead.
De Bie struggles to hold Sagan’s wheel now. Van Garderen, Kinoshita and McCarthy have made their way to the front, but no major split has happened as the riders behind them still hang on.
In fact, only Lutsenko embarks on the penultimate descent and the following short flat stretch alone. He’s got 19 seconds at the moment …
… on this group. A few of the riders who had struggled just a few minutes earlier have made it back, let’s have a comprehensive overview of who’s here right now:
Hagen
De Bie
Sagan
Lopez
Van Garderen
Kinoshita
McCarthy
Skujins
Ponzi
Mohoric
Bakelants
Koretzky
Gastauer
Schreurs
Kwiatkowski
Jensen
Not in this group is the eBuddy duo of Gerts (front) and Boswell (back), who’ve fallen behind alongside the former breakaway riders. They trail the main group by 45 seconds. Formolo, meanwhile, has left his teammates behind and is chasing alone now, 22 seconds behind these five. The group around Beltran, which also has Vogt and Chernetskiy, Talansky and Teuns as well as Sepulveda in it (but not Vakoc, who has lost further ground), is another 35 seconds behind.
Inside the final 10 kilometers, Lutsenko has extended his lead to almost 30 seconds. Lopez is doing some work in the group, but can’t do it alone. Sagan takes a turn, but the favorites are understably hesitant to spend too much energy.
Lutsenko enters the first slopes of the second-to-last climb and has extended his lead further to 45 seconds! No one has joined Sagan in his efforts - if they don’t react soon, they will be fighting for second place at best! Even the chasing group, now with Formolo, is about to make it back at this pace.
Finally some movement! Koretzky takes the initiative, Ponzi and Bakelants react the quickest. The chasers have just made contact, but have to dig deep to hang on now.
Koretzky starts to close the gap to Lutsenko, the other major contenders on a string behind him. Hagen, McCarthy, Skujins and Lopez are at the back of the group, not in the greatest positions.
Formolo’s massive efforts aren’t rewarded and he falls behind again as do his companions from the chasing group. Lopez and Jensen can’t keep up anymore either with the now 15 riders who remain ahead.
Lutsenko still leads on the way to the final hill, but the gap has shrunk drastically to around 15 seconds. Koretzky and Ponzi are still in the first positions behind him.
Bakelants moves to the front as the flamme rouge comes into view, but no one wants to make the pace and Lutsenko keeps his gap steady. Behind Ponzi, it’s Van Garderen, Koretzky, Mohoric and Kinoshita in good position, followed by Sagan, Hagen, De Bie and Skujins. The others are still with this group, just a few positions behind.
Another acceleration now from Ponzi! Van Garderen and Kinoshita try to follow.
That is too much for Gastauer, Schreurs and Kwiatkowski. They will likely fight for places 13-15 among themselves. Jensen has gained some seperation from Formolo and Lopez behind them but should be too far away to catch these three.
1,4 kilometers to go and Lutsenko is caught. For a few minutes, it looked like he had a good chance, but now he might struggle to keep up. The rest of the contenders are still very close together, no one showing their cards just yet.
Under the flamme rouge, Ponzi still leads, but can he really stay in the wind for so long? Kinoshita, Sagan and De Bie are in prime position behind him. The ascent flattens a little towards the finish line, so a lot can still happen. Lutsenko manages to hold on for now.
Game over for McCarthy and Skujins! While the former will likely still be content, a finish outside of the Top 10 is a desaster for Evonik!
Kinoshita is in trouble now, going backwards rapidly! Van Garderen isn’t looking great either, while Ponzi still holds on! 600 meters left, the finish line is literally just around the corner!
Jesus, what is this barrier doing in the middle of the road?! Miraculously, everyone comes through unscathed. Koretzky and Bakelants with difficulties to keep up pace, Mohoric doesn’t look all that fresh anymore either. Ponzi is still in the lead but Sagan, De Bie, wildly still Lutsenko and Hagen are closing in quickly!
Indeed, Sagan and De Bie draw level with the Italian onto the final 300 meters, and they’re much faster! So are Van Garderen, who has found another gear, Hagen and Lutsenko.
Ponzi loses positions quickly! De Bie and Sagan lead, will Aegon finally get the big payoff for all their investments?
Sagan pulls ahead! Van Garderen and Hagen have nothing left to give, but Lutsenko - from wherever he takes all this energy - is still going strong and attacks at least second place!
Sagan is on his way to his second win here, this surely has to be enough? Lutsenko is back in the saddle now, seemingly running out of steam at the very last second! Behind the first six, Mohoric is still battling with Bakelants and Koretzky!
May I present, the winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2020: Peter Sagan!
De Bie takes the second place comfortably in the end, a big result but frustratingly close to the very biggest. Lutsenko crowns an impressive day and an impressive Ardennes week with a podium appearance, Van Garderen comes in fourth.
In a photo finish, Hagen takes fifth place from Ponzi. A gutsy final 2 kilometers from the Italian that are eventually not rewarded.
The finish behind the two of them is just as close: Mohoric just barely ends up in seventh place, ahead of Bakelants and Koretzky - who can take additional pride in being the rider who likely prevented Lutsenko’s solo win with his attack.
Then follow probably the biggest disappointments of the day: Kinoshita in 10th and Skujins in 11th place. Given that Evonik had two good options today, this is just not good enough, especially with rival teams Festina and Isostar placing ahead of them. McCarthy, Kwiatkowski and Schreurs follow, reasonably in line with their abilities, though expecations were a bit higher for the Aker leader.
Gastauer makes it a good team result for EA Vesuvio, he finishes 15th ahead of Jensen, who also did reasonably well here today.
Lopez still has an acceleration in him, but he basically sprints against no one. Formolo follows in 18th place, one of the more impressive individual performances today given where he once was - his positioning prevented a better result, not for the first time.
Arifin and Ji parlay their breakaway efforts into the final two Top 20 spots, Pantano Gomez loses one place to Sepulveda, who’s leading the former main chasing group over the line. Teuns is 23rd, Beltran 24th, then Talansky as they sweep up eBuddy duo Gerts and Boswell at the last second.
Vogt, who at one point was among the last 25 riders at the front of the race, plummets and finishes in 50th place, Chernetskiy is Tinkoff’s best rider in 42nd place. Vakoc is also a huge disappointment, he finishes 64th but is somewhat bailed out by teammates Ji and Sepulveda.
Hamilton is Bennelong - Mitchelton’s best finisher, he comes in 53rd, one of two Top 100 finishers of his team next to Lane (78th). Team Puma - SAP has two riders in the first 100 as well in Niu (72nd) and Helme (91st), as does Grieg - Maersk with Serrano (84th) and Laengen (89th).
Gazelle shows the most impressive depth, with all 8 team riders in the Top 65 – 6 of which are in the Top 50, the most by a single team ahead of Isostar and Aker with 4 each –, but they lack the top result. Same for Generali, the second team with all riders at least in the Top 100. Aker - MOT is also the only team with 3 riders in the Top 30, although GCN Cycling comes close with Cuming in 31st place - a good showing for the wild card team.
Finally, in the spoiler below you’ll find an overview of how the best puncheurs did in all three Ardennes classics (very loosely defined as anyone who got at least one Top 10 result this week and sorted in ascending order of average finishing position).
Liège - Bastogne - Liège 
