Bem-vindo a Lisboa! The weather is nice, with no supporter in sight, which means the safest conditions possible. In 205.1 kilometer we will have a winner, but who out of the 135 riders will it be?
A breakaway is being formed in the outskirts of Lisbon. Sotberg and Phodingam first, followed by Carr and Camargo.
A fifth rider joins in the countryside: Sipos. Together they have two minutes ten kilometer into the race.
The peloton seems OK with this, the gap tops at five minutes. Teams involved in the chase over the course of the day are Swisslion, MOL, Eddie Stobart, Podium Ambition, Strava, Andorra, Lierse, Philips and Xero, with different levels of dedication.
The gap at the halfway mark is three minutes, but it looks less due to the switchbacks on this small hill. Lierse and Strava currently setting the pace with Skjerping, Dewulf, Hansen and Oss. The former has an obvious contender in Gaviria, but the latter seem to think the hills are difficult enough to put W. Kreder in winning position. The peloton is still complete with the exception of Sleen who suffers a puncture just now.
The highest point of the race is at 65 kilometer to go, but there are many smaller hills to cover. The lead of the breakaway is down to a safe two minutes. The sprinters, even those not adapted to hills, are near the front of the peloton and not in any danger. A few riders had lost contact on this hill but would come back afterwards.
At 40k a smaller hill causes the first notable split in the peloton. 40 riders in the front group, which includes Gaviria, Nelson, Maksimov, Lay, Houle, Boev, Saber and Meyer as most important names.
In the break, Carr and Phodingam attack as the gap to the first peloton is less than one minute. The second peloton is closing in though, mainly due to the work of Nordstrom ( Boivin), Strava ( W. Kreder) and GCN ( Mohs).
Just as the second peloton thought they had rejoined, the front splits again. Seventeen riders is what's left: Skjerping Houle Maksimov Cabanas Hansen Gaviria Kuznetsov Savini Verhelst Roux Oss Vanspeybrouck Hugentobler Meyer Bridges Nelson De Tier
A second group of another seventeen rider at thirty seconds, including Boev and Saber. Another thirty seconds behind is a group with Lay, Felline, Van der Sande and Van Poppel. At another convenient interval of thirty seconds, so two minutes from the first "peloton", is what was most of the second peloton.
Carr and Phodingam were caught by the other three but the Thai tries again with 30 kilometer to go. The first chasing group has closed in, whereas all other groups merged into one large group at 45 seconds, led by Campari, Strava (despite having four riders in the first group) and Farfetch.
A few riders leap over from the second peloton to the first, the new inclusions are: Felline Mestric Oelerich Nooytens Debesay Eeckhout Christodoulos Kireva Boev Guerreiro Van der Sande Van Poppel Bovenhuis Saber Lasca Lay Boivin Menten
The total group size is 34 as Verhelst was dropped. The next batch of riders including Mohs at a minute, also clear of the peloton.
Phodingam with his third attempt to attack but still not getting anywhere, probably also the last time as the catch seems imminent. Boev, Saber, Lasca, Lay and Boivin lost contact again, with the third group including Mohs falling further away.
The breakaway is caught with twenty kilometer to go, right after another hill. The current lead group, including those five, are: Skjerping Oelerich Gaviria Hansen Roux Oss Kuznetsov Houle De Tier Meyer Kireva Vanspeybrouck Cabanas Debesay Felline
The next group at 50 seconds with Bridges in between. Boivin, Nelson, Maksimov, Van der Sande, Saber, Van Poppel and Lay as sprinters present there. The peloton with other sprinters such as Krieger, Manarelli, Mohs, Habtom, Modolo, Redecker, Naesen, Vingerling and W. Kreder at two minutes with the gap continuing to grow.
Camargo now with an attempt to attack but the best he can do is get alongside the leading Skjerping, who gives him a confused look. Gaviria in second place laughing at him. His former mate Phodingam has dropped to the second group, given at 45 seconds.
Guerreiro and Menten push and bring part of the second group back, beside them: Mestric Bridges Phodingam Boivin Van Poppel Van der Sande Maksimov Saber Lay Nelson Nooytens Bovenhuis
We head onto the final hill of the race, at fifteen kilometer to go. Next group at 1'30 which looks to be game over.
Some non-sprinters need to attack now. Vanspeybrouck and Meyer do just that. The sprinters have to use their remaining teammates to chase, or attack themselves.
Kuznetsov attacks as well and passes Meyer and Vanspeybrouck, the former can follow but the latter can't. The lead over the group is already 25 seconds, Gaviria and Houle leading themselves despite the availability of teammates.
Near the top Meyer accelerates again, dropping Kuznetsov. The gap to the group is only increasing, 40 seconds now. The peloton is closing in on the second group as well, but it seems they can't make it back in time.
What is the second group up to? All life is gone there. Seven kilometer to go and the leader is 1'30 away with small ten-second gaps amongst the front three, and the next group is right on their tail again. It does not include Mohs who imploded on the last hill, but does include Aberasturi, W. Kreder, Modolo and Krieger.
The banner for five kilometer, Meyer leads by 27 seconds over Kuznetsov, who leads by nine seconds over Vanspeybrouck. The dilemma for the Russian is whether he should wait for the Belgian, joining forces to catch the Australian but risk finishing third. Nothing to fear from the sprinters though.
Skjerping has done the bulk of the work already but comes back to the front in order for Gaviria to prepare for the sprint. It also prevents most of the next group from rejoining, but they will sprint for fourth place. The Colombian wasted precious energy attempting to chase.
Kuznetsov stays about ten seconds ahead of Vanspeybrouck, but they lost sight of Meyer in the streets of Lisbon. His lead has grown to 50 seconds, the win can hardly elude him.
Some sprinters do decide to attack, but too little too late. Saber goes followed by Gaviria. Weird tactics as both men would be favorites in the sprint, even after such a difficult race.
Kuznetsov still marginally ahead of Vanspeybrouck as they enter the final kilometer, but both are riding much slower than Saber and Gaviria. The group has let that duo go quite easily, Hansen and Debesay leading the chase which doubles as leadout for Houle.
Gaviria thanks Saber and passes him with 500 meter to go, but can he catch Vanspeybrouck and/or Kuznetsov?
Vyacheslav Kuznetsov takes second place in Lisbon, add another Continental Team to the podium in Strava. That team also has many riders in the chasing group so can expect a good points haul from this race.
Vanspeybrouck's lead is getting thinner and thinner, Gaviria almost has him.
Back in the group, Nelson goes head to head with Van der Sande. They took a small lead over Maksimov, Houle and Oss. Lay and Vingerling are boxed in on the left but Boivin is gaining ground on the right.
Pieter Vanspeybrouck just completes the podium, which consists of three attackers. Not every flat race has to end in a sprint finish, time right and attackers can upset them.
Gaviria the best sprinter in fourth, but also needed an attack to get clear. His team, especially Skjerping, did a lot of work all stage but couldn't catch the last three in the end.
Saber finishes fifth, almost passed by Van der Sande in sixth and Nelson in seventh.
Maksimov eighth, Houle ninth. Both should have expected better results but the race didn't pan out that way.
Boivin completes the top ten ahead of teammate Van Poppel in eleventh and Debesay in twelfth.
Lay thirteenth ahead of Oelerich, Oss, Vingerling, Roux, Kireva and Bovenhuis. Nooytens completes the top twenty.
The riders from second to sixty-first are given the same time, + 1'13 from the winner, but this did not suggest the peloton caught the chasers at the end. Krieger only finishes 50th as he was at the back. Boev 66th and Manarelli 71st at four minutes. The biggest disappointment of the day is Mohs, 106th at six minutes.
