Welcome back to Paris - Nice. Stage 7 features a 12.5 km individual time trial up the Col de Lagarde d’Apt. The course is almost entirely uphill so it seems likely that it will mostly be about climbing skill. 3rd place Alarcon will be the biggest test of the MT bias as the weakest TT rider among the GC contenders. If TT is important than that will play even more to the favor of current leader and GC favorite Lecuisinier, who not only has a 20 second cushion, but also one of the strongest TT capabilities.
As a reminder the GC looks like this:
1
Pierre-Henri Lecuisinier
Festina - OAKA
21h03'19
2
Romain Sicard
Air France - KLM
+ 21
3
Jose Alarcon
Volvo acc. by Spotify
+ 40
4
Robert Gesink
Duolingo
+ 41
5
Jan Hirt
Moser - Sygic
+ 45
6
Lachlan Morton
Bennelong - Mitchelton
+ 54
7
Andrei Amador
Team UBS
+ 1'01
8
Patrick Schelling
Team UBS
+ 1'08
9
Joseph Dombrowski
eBuddy
+ 1'11
10
Nairo Quintana
Rakuten Pro Cycling
+ 1'20
11
Natnael Berhane
ISA - Hexacta
+ 1'27
12
Daan Olivier
Aegon - Peroni
+ 1'30
13
Louis Meintjes
cycleYorkshire
+ 1'46
14
William Chiarello
Evonik - ELKO
+ 2'11
15
Martijn Keizer
Indosat Ooredoo
+ 2'16
Clearly the bookies don’t think TT is going to matter because it doesn’t even show up in their analysis:
We pick up coverage with Galta, one of the outsiders, he has had a poor race and sits in 31st. But he is expected to be the first major challenger for the TT. So far it hasn’t gone a lot better, he was 4th, 4 seconds off the pace at the intermediate time check. Behind Carapaz, Costagli, and Velits, in that order
Now Galta reaches the finish.
He loses 6 more seconds and finishes 10 seconds behind Carapaz, who is in the hot seat. Galta will gain in the GC over the weaker climbers ahead of him but probably not a top time on the stage.
Back at the intermediate check Carapaz has been beaten. Sitting in 20th on the GC, Roglic, has put 13 seconds in to the best time.
Soon after at the same check Tvetcov and Kirsch both beat Carapaz but neither beats Roglic. They are 4 and 7 seconds behind, respectively.
Ji completes the course 3 seconds slower than Carapaz, good enough for 3rd at this point.
Another outsider Talansky comes across 26 seconds down on the leader at the intermediate check. Not great from him.
Keizer, sitting in 15th on GC and one of the best TT riders has almost caught his minute man at the intermediate check. He beats Roglic by 5 seconds.
At the finish Godoy completes the course in 12th, 27 seconds off the lead. He needs 11 seconds to pass Novak for the white jersey but he dropped 4 seconds in the first half. So if Novak has his pacing right he should hold white.
14th placed Chiarello crosses the intermediate check 9 seconds behind Keizer. They were only 5 seconds apart to start the day so seems likely they will be switching places. Keizer needs 30 seconds on the next rider in the GC Meintjes.
It doesn’t look like he will get it, Meintjes leads him by 1 second at the checkpoint.
Next rider at the intermediate check is Olivier, he loses 4 seconds to the leader, he can afford to lose 16.
Maybe TT having some influence as Berhane loses 24 seconds at the first-time check. He has already lost two places on GC.
Novak passes the finish in 20th place but more importantly for him he held his 4 second advantage over Godoy and extends his lead in White.
Quintana is the next rider at the intermediate check.
He is third, 4 seconds behind the leader Meintjes. His GC place looks secure, we will see if he can move up.
Roglic sets the new best time at the finish 32’36. He increased his lead by 10 seconds over the second half and knocks Carapaz into second. Given the intermediate times Roglic won’t have the hot seat for long.
Dombrowski, the first of the really strong climbers passes the first check 5 seconds down on Meintjes. Schelling, 8th place on GC coming into the stage matches Dombrowski’s time. They are 3 seconds apart in GC so every second counts.
A few more riders at the finish: Tvetcov, 3rd, + 12 to Roglic Kirsch, 2nd, +12 to Roglic Talansky 16th, +49 to Roglic
The second UBS rider in the top in the top 10 is 7th placed Amador, he passes the first time check 7 second behind. Seems like the gaps are going to be tiny today.
But Morton changes all that, he beats Meintjes by 25 seconds. The same distance as between 1st and 19th at the intermediate check, before his arrival.
Morton needs 14 seconds to get to the podium, he is putting some pressure on the riders starting behind him.
Next up is 4th place Hirt, he is punching above hit weight so far.
He is 36 seconds behind Morton. Weakest among the top 10 but not by much. He will lose a place to Morton but should be able to hold off the rest.
Next the first of the big contenders finishes: Keizer.
He sets a new best time, but loses 2 seconds on Roglic in the second half. His time is unlikely to stand up.
Gesink finishes the first half 16 seconds behind Morton, he now sits second on the stage at the intermediate check but is losing a position on GC.
At the finish Kruijswijk loses 1’50 and will drop down the standings. Some brave riding by the veteran the last few days but he can’t dispute the race of truth
Next at the intermediate is Alarcon, his time is 19 seconds off the lead, good enough for third. A solid time but maybe not quite good enough, he only leads Gesink by 1 second and Morton by 24. So he is losing one slot now and is on a pace to lose two.
Chiarello has finished, he is second, but loses 10 seconds to Keizer which means they will switch places on the GC.
Meintjes sets the new best time at the finish. In the second half of the TT he adds 9 seconds to his lead over Keizer.
Sicard comes to the intermediate time check next.
He is 22 seconds down, he led Morton by 34 seconds at the start of the day, Morton might have a shot at 2nd.
Soon after it is the Yellow Jersey. His time goes up – he is 16 seconds up on Morton. Lecuisinier is making this race his.
Olivier comes across the finish 7 seconds behind Meintjes. He lost only 2 seconds in the second half and will hold his GC position.
Berhane next to finish, he struggled in the first half and is out of the saddle as he finishes the time trial.
He comes in 41 seconds down on Meintjes. That is going to drop him behind Olivier and Meintjes, he goes from 11th to 13th.
Quintana comes in 6 seconds down, he will hold his 10th place in the GC. It will also be good enough for a top 10 on the stage.
Dombrowski finishes 7 seconds behind Meintjes, he loses 2 seconds in the second half. The times aren’t shifting much.
Schelling powers home.
Schelling finishes 12 seconds behind the lead (6th). Right behind him is the other UBS man, Amador. He is 18 seconds off the pace (8th).
Dombrowski’s time doesn’t seem great compared to the other top climbers but he wasn’t far behind the two UBS men in the GC. He gains 5 seconds on Schelling and 11 seconds on Amador which is good enough to move him up from 9th to 7th on GC, past them both. He will hope to improve on that tomorrow.
Next up is Morton, you can see his minute man just in front of him, so he has flown up the climb.
He finishes 48 seconds faster than Meintjes. Almost doubling his gap from the first half. Again, it is huge – 48 seconds is the difference between 1st and 16th prior to Morton’s time.
Morton was 33 seconds out of 2nd at the start of the day.
Hirt finishes 1’11 behind in 11th.
That is a big loss to Morton but not bad against the rest, he will just drop 1 slot to 6th on GC.
Gesink is closer, finishing 38 seconds back. Good enough to sit 2nd on the stage. But not good enough to hold off Morton, he will drop to 5th.
Alarcon does a little better, only 33 seconds behind. But he only had a 24 second lead on Morton. He does sit second on the stage and it could be good enough for a stage podium. Because Sicard wasn’t as strong in the first half.
And Sicard has Lecuisinier right on his wheel as they finish. How much is Sicard being bad versus Lecuisinier being good?
Well Sicard wasn’t great against his immediate rivals. He loses 47 seconds to Morton and 14 seconds to Alarcon. Which means Morton will move into 2nd but Sicard will just hold on to the podium dropping Alcaron into 4th. The Venezuelan will need to find 6 seconds tomorrow versus the defending champion to get back on the podium.
Lecuisinier was pretty good. He gets Festina their 3rd stage victory beating Morton by 27 seconds and the rest of the field by over a minute.
So the Mountain TT doesn’t have a dramatic impact. The big winners are Morton who moves from 6th to 2nd and Lecuisinier who extends his GC lead to 1’22. The same amounts separates 2nd from 10th so while Lecuisinier can play defense the rest of the GC contenders will have it all to play for.
Lecuisinier’s win also gives him the green jersey. No change in the other jerseys. Evonik is able to extend their lead in the team competition to 2’01 over UBS.
Paris - Nice 
