Welcome to Tsukuba to one of the final three races of the season: the Japan Cup. The excitement is palpable, the home crowds are cheering on their local hero Kinoshita every step of the way, the team managers have taken seat in their cars behind the peloton, anxious to see what their riders have in store for them on this beautiful autumn day. Well, let’s find out together:
The flag is waved, the riders start to pedal and we’re off to the races.
There’s barely any flat stretch before the first ascent starts, but Filippo Rocchetti uses it to launch the first attack. He’s not the strongest rider, but he wants his time in the limelight anyway. De Vreese and Quintana, some much more established guys, go after him.
Another trio consisting of Skaarseth, Ivars and Crncevic makes their way to the front as the riders hit the first slopes of the day. More attacks are still coming from the peloton.
Specifically from Galiev, Kononenko and Oliveira. They get a little seperation, making it nine riders ahead of the peloton currently.
They catch up to Crncevic and establish a gap of 45 seconds to the peloton, which does seem okay with this constellation for now. The first five riders are another 30 seconds ahead.
Quintana, the best climber of the group, has done most of the work to ensure that it stays that way over the top of the first climb. But the quartet in pursuit might get a chance to catch up on the downhill now. The distance between the lead and the peloton is at 1’45 by now.
Indeed, on the flat stretch between climbs, we have a unified group of nine, now three minutes ahead of a pack that seems to have relaxed a bit. There’s a clear distinction in terms of climbing abilities with Kononenko, Galiev, Quintana and Ivars in a tier of their own compared to their five companions. As soon as the pace starts to increase, expect those four to stay ahead the longest.
Nothing of note happened on either the second or the third lap, except for the lead of the breakaway going up to seven minutes and, atop the third passing of the summit, the first rider losing touch with the peloton. It’s going to be a long day in the saddle for Mareczko as he tackles the remaining 165 kilometers alone.
Numerous teams lead the chase, slowly bringing down the gap to the escapees. Delvaux for Schreurs, Swisslion for Beltran, Rakuten for Kinoshita and Minions for Claeys all stake their claim, with Philips for Kelderman taking turns occasionally as well.
We can skip ahead a little, as everyone’s just chugging along. Swisslion continues to do the bulk of the work and with some success: The breakaway is only just under three minutes ahead, itself apparently not riding at a very high pace and still intact with all nine riders. A few more riders have been dropped by the peloton, but of course no big name yet.
However, on the downhill from that sixth climb, the peloton starts to fracture pretty seriously. As is often the case this early in a race, much of this could come back together again, but only 67 riders were attentive enough to stay ahead. Among the riders behind some of the splits are Slagter, Sepulveda and Froome at around 1’20 behind the peloton and Juul-Jensen, Reichenbach, Klemme and Pichon another 30 seconds later. They should better make their way back to the front sooner rather than later.
Heading into the third-to-last lap, we’re indeed back to a peloton of 141, but with Swisslion, Rakuten and Philips continuing to set the pace, don’t expect that to last too long.
The breakaway took advantage of the chaos behind them to push their lead back up to three and a half minutes, but it’s still a bit surprising that the better climbers don’t push harder here. Maybe they preserve all their energy for the final one or two climbs, but they have to make sure to even get that far.
The next splits in the peloton open up on the ascent, which spells much more trouble for those falling behind. Among them are Klemme and Froome as well as luxury domestiques like Sepulveda, Quevedo and Tanovitchii. The other contenders named above seem to have learned their lesson, although some of them are still positioned towards the back of the peloton, including once again Juul-Jensen, Reichenbach and Pichon .
Up front, we finally see some action as Galiev and Quintana break free from the others. De Vreese immediately falls behind, Crncevic follows soon, Ivars leads the pursuit.
Salcone is really pushing the pace in the peloton now and to quite some effect. 27 riders break off the front, leaving the rest of the pack all over the place behind them. Caught behind are Paulinho (in the group of nine visible just behind the pack), Di Maggio and Barbin (chasing those), and even futher down the road again the likes of Juul-Jensen, Reichenbach, Slagter, Pichon and now also the Europcar trio of Zaini, Caruso and Calmejane.
Into the penultimate climb, a group of five has come together to lead the race, with Galiev, Quintana, Ivars, Skaarseth and Kononenko leaving behind Rocchetti and Oliveira. They still have three minutes on the peloton …
… where the Paulinho and Di Maggio groups have made it back, but the others haven’t. There are 41 riders in this group and it doesn’t look like any of the ones further back will have any impact on the outcome of the race anymore.
And with Bilbao taking the reigns, that group is dwindling in size quickly. Both Barbin and Di Maggio are immediately in trouble again, as are many of the domestiques who’ve done a lot of work earlier in the race.
A bit later, it’s Bellis who loses touch! A bit surprising to see, but it’s unclear at this point whether it was a lapse in concentration or actual weakness. He’s leading the chase with some energy here. Paulinho is also in this group of six, as 28 riders remain in the peloton.
With a quick acceleration, Bellis is indeed back in contact with the peloton, but this certainly cost him some energy. More riders are dropping, including previous escapee Crncevic and also Serry, leaving Kinoshita isolated!
But the Rakuten leader is not the only one left without help as Bilbao continues to push the pace. With Trofimov and Dowsett the most recent prominent victims, only 20 riders remain in the first group. They are, from front to back:
Bilbao
Beltran
Kelderman
Kinoshita
Claeys
Schreurs
Jensen
Vakoc
Boily
Izagirre
Flügel
Waeytens
Prevar
Moscon
Borges
Betancourt
Chiarello
Yates
Vogt
Bellis
Moments later, we have the first major attack! Bilbao is done at the front and immediately, Jensen senses an opportunity and goes for it. There are still 40 kilometers to go!
He quickly gets a decent gap and Kinoshita and Beltran flock to the front to lead the chase. This sheds more riders off the back of the group, first Vogt and then Chiarello, Bilbao and Moscon.
However, the pursuit isn’t very hot so Flügel decides to go for it as well! Another surprising move, but he seems to feel well today.
Also a bit surprising: Schreurs is the next victim of this increase in pace! Including the two recent attackers, that makes it 15 favorites left in front as Beltran continues to lead the way.
Jensen reaches Kononenko at the summit, who had been dropped from the lead group. They breakaway is 1’20 in front of them, Flügel 20 seconds behind, and the other contenders another 40 seconds behind! This looks kind of promising, but there’s still a long way to go.
Flügel, a terrific downhill rider, has joined Jensen (with Kononenko barely hanging on) and they build a lead of more than a minute on their rivals. If they can hold that gap through the flat without losing too much energy, they could have a shot.
But one domestique survived with the other favorites and he’s giving it everything on the flat. Boily is quickly getting the gap down to around 50 seconds …
… which leads Flügel to continue on his own. Although it isn’t so much that he increased the pace, rather it seemed like Jensen was completely empty and he simply dropped alongside Kononenko.
Kononenko then takes a few turns at the front of the group to try and keep Flügel within reach. The gap has stabilized at 50 seconds now with the escapees still another 50 seconds ahead, still going strong. But one or two energetic accelerations by the big guns could erase those numbers quickly, I imagine.
And here’s just that: Beltran makes a move and is almost immediately within range of Flügel. Kelderman and Kinoshita follow closely, but so far everyone is able to keep up, with the understandable exception of Boily.
Beltran moves past Flügel and just keeps going, his eyes now set on the breakaway. Everyone’s still with him, but for how long?
Just a few more second - and then the group fractures. Kelderman, Kinoshita and Jensen, now looking like he conserved his energy wisely by dropping back earlier, continue to keep up, but no one else is able to do so. Vakoc and Betancourt have a gap on the rest of the favorites, but also to this quartet.
Izagirre and Prevar bring the latter two back into the fold, but the other four are a good 40 seconds ahead. And we should also note that by this point, the remaining four escapees pose a real threat to this group. They’re still more than a minute ahead. There’s still a good bit of climbing left, but not a ton - and then it’s only downhill until the finish.
But some riders have to look backwards rather than ahead. First Waeytens and then Flügel lose contact, and then there’s another split with Claeys, Borges, Yates and Bellis on the wrong side of it.
Only Betancourt, Vakoc and Prevar remain with Izagirre, who looks strong but can’t seem to close the gap to Beltran and Co. It’s at 50 seconds now.
Prevar takes over and accelerates, and Betancourt and Vakoc are immediately off the back. This is a war of attrition at this point.
Which makes the performance of these four guys all the more impressive. They still hold a small gap over their chasers - though presumably not for too long - and are, if they don’t collapse completely, almost guaranteed a Top 10 result at this point. Spectacular effort by them, especially Skaarseth, who’s punching way above his weight here!
A bit further behind, his teammate Bellis has attacked from his group (where Flügel has caught up again) to chase Vakoc and Betancourt on his own. They’re certainly still within reach, around 30 seconds ahead.
With a big push, Prevar has not only left Izagirre behind, but also catches up with the other contenders, who make contact with the former breakaway just under the summit, forming a group of nine, around 50 seconds ahead of the Spaniard.
For Skaarseth, that catch comes just a few meters too early and he drops behind. But he’s joined by Izagirre, who he can maybe latch onto. Two very short but nasty hills remain before the final descent. (The Lierse rider ahead is Mareczko being lapped.)
Over one of those hills, Izagirre does catch up to the other favorites, but Skaarseth can’t follow. Still, he has more than two minutes on Betancourt behind him, which should be enough to secure him a Top 10, with nine riders ahead.
Behind Betancourt, two groups have formed. Just under a minute down the road, we have Vakoc, now accompanied by Bellis, Yates and Flügel, then another 50 seconds behind, Borges leads Claeys and Waeytens, with Boily and Kononenko next. A few more domestiques are scattered on the road between them and a bigger group of around 20 riders, including the likes of Paulinho, Juul-Jensen and Reichenbach. Schreurs, incredibly, has fallen behind even further than that.
But back to the front, where Prevar uses the final small hill for an attack. Kelderman is the first in his wheel. Both are among the better sprinters, but a few riders are somewhat evenly matched here, so they might not want to roll the dice.
Or maybe they simply want to get rid of the escapees, which they successfully do. Galiev, Quintana and Ivars probably have to say goodbye to a potential Top 5 result (or more), but like Skaarseth, they should be guaranteed a Top 10 (that’s again Mareczko there with them).
While Kelderman stays with Jensen, Beltran, Kinoshita and Izagirre, Prevar actually gets a small gap! It’s just 15 seconds and he is a worse riders downhill than any of his competitors, but let’s see how far this can take him. 8 kilometers left.
We’re into the final 4 kilometers and the gap still persists, but it’s down to 10 seconds and the last two kilometers are flat again. In a sprint, whether for first or second place, Kinoshita would be the favorite, but only by a sliver. With the exception of Izagirre, who’s just really slow in a sprint, all of them have somewhat similar speed with good-not-great acceleration.
Similarly, in the group behind them - where Skaarseth has rejoined his former companions -, the sprinting skills are fairly equally distributed, with again one exception in Galiev.
We’re in the finale now, 2 kilometers left. Prevar still has a small gap, Kinoshita is taking a turn in pursuit.
Prevar opens the sprint under the flamme rouge. How much energy does he have left? Again, those are no speedsters behind him - if they’re more occupied with each than than with the Ukranian, this could still work!
Kinoshita accelerates first, followed by Jensen and Beltran. They have a bit more pace than Prevar, but not a lot! 600 meters for the leader!
Predictably, Izagirre can’t hold any wheel and Kelderman finds himself in a tough spot. Jensen and Beltran fan out behind Kinoshita, but they’re still a good bit behind to Prevar!
The line is coming closer and closer, Prevar should have this, right?
He celebrates early, very early. Too early …?
No! He errs on the side of caution and gives it a few more pedal strokes, but this one is his! With a courageous attack, he takes the win and denies Kinoshita another victory on home soil. The Japanese champion proved to be the strongest in the sprint, but it just wasn’t enough.
Jensen will be satisfied with this third place, I think, Beltran and Kelderman maybe slightly less so with their fourth and fifth places, respectively. Izagirre has to acknowledge that he won’t win anything in a sprint, but after falling behind his rivals earlier, he salvaged as much as he could.
In the sprint for places 7 through 10, Skaarseth continues his aggressive performance by taking on the sprint head on, Galiev to his left, Ivars to his right.
Even after all the efforts today, Skaarseth still seems to have a lot of energy. Galiev is fading, what do Ivars and Quintana have left in the tank?
Not enough to stop the Norwegian. But it’s a fantastic result for all four of them of course, Quintana giving Volvo even two riders in the Top 10.
But the biggest news the huge ride from Galiev today. Andorra was in huge relegation danger and needed one of their riders to overperform. Galiev did exactly that and seeing Carrefour`s weak performances today, this could become very thrilling towards the final rankings as Carrefour will need someone in the top30 today to keep any chance with this result.
More than two minutes later, Betancourt crosses the line alone. Without the breakaway, this would have been a very solid result, now he finds himself in 11th place - not terrible, but could have been better.
In the next group, the sprint turns out exactly as you’d expect, with Yates beating Bellis and Vakoc, Flügel without a chance but still finishes 15th, which is decent.
Borges, Waeytens and Claeys probably all had hoped for more than places 16 to 18, but that’s what they end up with today.
The final Top 20 places go to Boily and Kononenko, who adds another cherry on top of the cake that has been this race for Popo4Ever.
Chamorro as best placed Carrefour today just inside the top50....this is not enough for them as they swap positions with Andorra this way and with the line in between those two teams, this means relegation for Carrefour with a tiny margin of just couple points!
This also means that ENI MOL and Kulczyk remain PCT with a tiny advantage as well. Very close until the end with Carrefour being the most unlucky one but also Carlsberg has to go down as the huge result didn`t come neither for them.
Moscon, Denz, Slagter and Ivanov finish next, before Cerny leads the biggest remaining group of 20 riders over the line, the third Lierse rider in the Top 25, but none better than 17th.
Also in that group as the best finishers of their respective teams are Juul-Jensen (27th), Reichenbach (29th) and Paulinho (44th).
Other teams that have to wait longer for their first rider to cross the line include Carrefour with Chamorro in the following group (48th) accompanied by Delvaux’s Schreurs (50th) after a horrendous collapse.
Beyond that, we have Rocchetti, whose 58th place from his breakaway endeavors still outranks Campari captain Pichon (76th), Skjerping (62nd) coming in ahead of Di Maggio (78th) for ENI - MOL and a desastrous day for Europcar, as seemingly their whole squad surrounded Zaini after he fell behind. But since the Italian finished a whopping 13 minutes behind the winner, that means that Calmejane is the team’s best finisher in 95th place.
And with that - and the two other races of the day -, the 2019 ManGame season comes to an end. Check out the final rankings posted briefly following these reports for the final standings. Congrats to all those counting themselves lucky, and comiserations to those falling short. See you in the offseason!
Japan Cup 
